A Quick Finale

Excuse my brevity…I’ve only got a few minutes to make these because I am off to Florida until New Year’s. Expect an in-depth post on the postseason sometime next week…

Last Week: 9-7
(SAFE PICKS: 2-2)

Season: 137-103
(SAFE PICKS: 56-34)

SATURDAY:

New York Giants (7-8, 4-3 away)
at
Washington (5-10, 3-4 home)

The Giants have completely fallen apart. Coughlin has already started packing his bags…

My Pick: Redskins send the G-men packing
SAFE PICK

SUNDAY:

Green Bay (7-8, 4-3 away)
at
Chicago (13-2, 6-1 home)

Has anyone else noticed that the Bears can’t stop anyone anymore? They are headed for serious trouble in their first postseason game. Their defense has really been hurt by injuries and their quarterback situation became even more of a distraction after Griese came in and replaced Grossman late against Detroit. This is the worst “best” team in the NFC in recent memory. There is no way that this team can beat New Orleans in the playoffs. And I doubt that they will beat Brett Favre in possibly his last game when they have nothing to play for.

My Pick: Packers make their case for a wildcard spot

Detroit (2-13, 0-7 away)
at
Dallas (9-5, 4-2 home)

Dallas will have one of their Dr. Jekyll games and beat up on the Lions.

My Pick: Cowboys end the regular season on a high note
SAFE PICK

Miami (6-9, 2-5 away)
at
Indianapolis (11-4, 7-0 home)

The Colts are still vying for a first-round bye and they need to get back on track after that embarrassing loss to Houston.

My Pick: Colts win at home

St. Louis (7-8, 3-4 away)
at
Minnesota (6-9, 3-4 home)

The Rams look like the best of the mess in the scramble for the last NFC wildcard spot. Their offense is always impressive and their spotty defense should be able to do enough to hold down the abysmal Vikings’ offense.

My Pick: Rams win and grab the last playoff spot in the NFC
SAFE PICK

Oakland (2-13, 0-7 away)
at
New York Jets (9-6, 3-4 home)

The Jets didn’t come this far to be stopped by Oakland at home.

My Pick: Jets win and take the last wildcard spot in the AFC
SAFE PICK

Seattle (8-7, 3-4 away)
at
Tampa Bay (4-11, 3-4 home)

The Seahawks need to get their offense going if they are going to have any shot of advancing past the first round of the playoffs. Alexander and Hasselbeck will play for the majority of the game and help the team pick up the win.

My Pick: Seahawks end the season with a win on the road

Cleveland (4-11, 2-5 away)
at
Houston (5-10, 3-4 home)

I’ll take the Texans, who have made great strides this year on offense.

My Pick: Texans pick up their 4th home win

Arizona (5-10, 2-5 away)
at
San Diego (13-2, 7-0 home)

Leinart is out and the Chargers need to win to secure the top seed in the AFC.

My Pick: Chargers beat the Leinart-less Cardinals

Pittsburgh (7-8, 2-5 away)
at
Cincinnati (8-7, 4-3 home)

The Bengals are the better team and their explosive passing game will decimate the Steelers’ shaky secondary. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough for Cincy to make the playoffs.

My Pick: Bengals win but still miss the postseason

New England (11-4, 6-1 away)
at
Tennessee (8-7, 4-3 home)

The Patriots are playing well and can’t be helped or hurt by this game. Thus, the starters won’t be playing much. The Titans will win but their bid for a playoff spot will come up just short.

My Pick: Titans win again but miss the playoffs

Jacksonville (8-7, 2-5 away)
at
Kansas City (8-7, 5-2 home)

The Chiefs are tough to beat at home, and I think that the Jags will be demoralized by their loss to New England last week. Regardless of the outcome, neither of these teams is playoff bound.

My Pick: Chiefs win at home but miss the playoffs

Carolina (7-8, 3-4 away)
at
New Orleans (10-5, 4-3 home)

Since Dallas lost to Philly, the Saints, who clinched the #2 seed, have nothing to play for here. I don’t expect to see much of the first string for the Saints.

My Pick: Panthers win but miss the playoffs on the tiebreaker

Atlanta (7-8, 4-3 away)
at
Philadelphia (8-6, 4-3 home)

The red hot Eagles will be too much for the inconsistent Falcons.

My Pick: Eagles win the NFC East and eliminate the Falcons

Buffalo (7-8, 3-4 away)
at
Baltimore (12-3, 6-1 home)

The Ravens need to win to secure the #2 seed in the AFC. The Bills have played well in the second half of the season but they will come up short in Baltimore.

My Pick: Ravens win and get a first round bye

San Francisco (6-9, 2-5 away)
at
Denver (9-6, 4-3 home)

Jay Cutler is playing well and the ‘9ers pass defense is anything but solid. The Broncos will win and grab a wildcard spot.

My Pick: Broncos win and make the playoffs
SAFE PICK

Stay tuned for my Playoff Preview Post next week…Happy New Year everyone!

Merry Christmas!

I’m dreaming of a white Christmas…sadly, that dream may not be realized. I can, however, console myself with some enticing Christmas Eve and Christmas day football match-ups…

Last Week: 8-8
(SAFE PICKS: 2-1)

Season: 128-96
(SAFE PICKS: 54-32)


Carolina (6-8, 2-4 away)
at
Atlanta (7-7, 3-4 home)

The Panthers look like a team that has given up. The Falcons may be inconsistent and prone to giving up big plays in the passing game but they will have more energy and desire than their opponents, who will likely be thinking ahead to spending Christmas time with their families.

My Pick: Falcons move above .500 and put themselves in position for a playoff berth
SAFE PICK

Tampa Bay (3-11, 0-7 away)
at
Cleveland (4-10, 2-5 home)

Tim Rattay has a much stronger arm than Bruce Gradikowski and he is just as accurate. Jon Gruden should have made this switch a long time ago because Rattay is the quarterback that can best utilize the Bucs’ speedy receivers. Tampa Bay isn’t very good, but they’re not bad enough to go 0-8 on the road and the team has to win a game in sub-freezing temperatures eventually. All streaks, good and bad, must come to an end, and Cleveland doesn’t have the kind of running game that is needed to dominate in wintry conditions. Therefore, I will take the team with the hot offense...

My Pick: Rattay and Galloway lift Tampa Bay to victory on the road

Washington (5-9, 2-5 away)
at
St. Louis (6-8, 3-4 home)

The Redskins, especially Ladell Betts and their front defensive line, have played well lately, but the Rams have desperation on their side. They are still alive in the playoff race and will not let the ‘skins stand in their way.

My Pick: Rams win at home
SAFE PICK

Baltimore (11-3, 5-2 away)
at
Pittsburgh (7-7, 5-2 home)

The Steelers are still alive in the playoff race, and honestly, if they win their next two games, have a real shot at stealing the last wildcard spot. They will be excited for another shot at a team that embarrassed them the last time around.

My Pick: Steelers defeat the Ravens at home
SAFE PICK

Indianapolis (11-3, 4-3 away)
at
Houston (4-10, 2-4 home)

This one will be closer than you think…but the Colts won’t let home-field advantage slip away from them.

My Pick: Colts hang on to win on the road

Cincinnati (8-6, 4-3 away)
at
Denver (8-6, 3-3 home)

Jay Cutler looked really good last week. The Broncos certainly made the right decision when they made the switch from Plummer to Cutler. That being said, I still like the Bengals here. I know they laid an egg last week against the Colts, but their offense can score anytime they want against any defense when they are playing well. Denver’s defense has been pretty shaky during the second half of the season and although they have looked better the last few weeks, they can’t shut down all of Cincy’s playmakers. Of course, the Bengals’ defense is even worse, so expect this one to be a shootout…

My Pick: Bengals win a wild one on the road

Tennessee (7-7, 3-4 away)
at
Buffalo (7-7, 4-3 home)

I really want to apply my “wintry weather” theory from yesteryear, but none of these games seem to lend themselves to it. Tennessee’s offense is built around the run and they find a way to grind out games. Buffalo’s offense has actually shifted more towards the passing game with Losman picking up his game the last few weeks and developing a rapport with receiver Lee Evans. This one’s a toss-up but I’ll take Vince Young and the Titans, who don’t know how to lose right now, against the Bills, who can’t stop the run.

My Pick: Travis Henry and Young run all over the Bills

Chicago (12-2, 6-1 away)
at
Detroit (2-12, 2-5 home)

Chicago has everything sewn up and their defense played shoddily last week. This is an upset waiting to happen.

My Pick: Lions knock off the Bears at home

New Orleans (9-5, 5-2 away)
at
New York Giants (7-7, 3-4 home)

The Giants are way too inconsistent and make far too many mistakes to be a playoff team, regardless of how talented they are. The Saints are still fighting for a first-round bye and will be motivated to reassert themselves after an embarrassing loss at Washington last week. Look for a huge day from Drew Brees and the Saints offense. The Giants will keep it close for a while, but will fall apart in the fourth quarter.

My Pick: Saints maim Giants’ playoff chances

New England (10-4, 5-1 away)
at
Jacksonville (8-6, 6-1 home)

The Jaguars are in desperate need of a victory but their inconsistency will do them in. Their running game is superb but quarterback David Garrard makes far too many mistakes for this team to make the playoffs. Their defense plays really well at times, but at others, looks ordinary. The Patriots generate a lot of turnovers and should be able to score enough points to defeat the Jaguars.

My Pick: Pats end the Jags’ playoff dreams

Arizona (4-10, 1-5 away)
San Francisco (6-8, 4-3 home)

Frank Gore is a great running back, one of if not the best back in the NFC. The problem with the ‘9ers though is that Alex Smith doesn’t generate quite enough offense through the air. This team doesn’t have a go-to receiver and this is something that the team needs to address during the off-season. I predict that Matt Leinart and the Cardinals’ explosive passing game will go up early and the ‘9ers will struggle to come back.

My Pick: The ‘9ers go the way of Gore’s presidency

San Diego (12-2, 5-2 away)
at
Seattle (8-6, 5-2 home)

Seattle is far too talented to be struggling like they are right now. They will break out of it and I think it will happen during this game. This offense, when it gets things together, has the ability to score on anyone. The Chargers are bound to have a letdown game eventually, even though the race for the top seed is still on, and I think that this might be the game where they are outplayed by a team that, on paper, they should beat. Can Seattle really lose three games at home this year after their dominating home-field edge a year ago? Not if Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck have any say in it.

My Pick: The Seahawks start playing like they should and the Chargers can’t match their intensity

And the Christmas Day games:

Philadelphia (8-6, 4-3 away)
at
Dallas (9-5, 4-2 home)

The NFC East title is still up for grabs and the Eagles have played really well under Jeff Garcia. I think they have been playing a bit over their heads though. The Cowboys have the better team and it will show on Monday. Their punishing running attack (led by Marion Barber) will punish the Eagles’ weak run defense and Romo will make enough plays through the air to offset Jeff Garcia. I still think that the Eagles could grab a wildcard spot but the division title will belong to the Cowboys.

My Pick: Cowboys secure the division title

New York Jets (8-6, 5-2 away)
at
Miami (6-8, 4-3 home)

The Jets have the Dolphins’ number and they need this win to stay on track for a playoff berth. Miami will keep it close for most of the game but Pennington and the Jets will take control in the fourth quarter and cruise to victory.

My Pick: Jets stay in position for a wildcard berth

And that’s all she wrote…
Merry Christmas everyone!!!

An Early Stocking Stuffer (or two)

It’s the stretch run and I’m slumping again…I guess I just place too much confidence in the better-than-average-team’s ability to beat teams that are more talented than they are when they have more on the line…cough…Bengals and Chiefs…cough…
Anyway, let’s put all that behind us and get this holiday weekend started off right…

Minnesota (6-8, 3-4 away)
at
Green Bay (6-8, 2-5 home)

Someway, somehow, Green Bay still has a shot at a playoff berth. A lot would have to go their way for it to happen but they have a shot…and what about the Vikes, who also have a shot at being 8-8? Well, their pass defense is inconsistent and their passing game stinks. Despite Green Bay’s confounding struggles at Lambeau this season, I’ll go with Favre in what could possibly be his last home game.

My Pick: Favre wows the home crowd and keeps his team’s playoff hopes alive
SAFE PICK

And the Christmas Eve Eve game…

Kansas City (7-7, 2-5 away)
at
Oakland (2-12, 2-5 home)

If the Chiefs don’t win this game, it would be embarrassing. I’m a little worried though because they haven’t shown a pulse since that OT loss in Cleveland.

My Pick: Chiefs keep their slim playoff hopes alive

Just Made It In Time...

Whoops…it’s eight o’clock. Which means that there is only half an hour before the Monday Night game starts.


In a battle of high octane passing games, I’ll give the Bengals the edge. Rudi Johnson is a much more reliable runner than Joseph Addai or Dominick Rhodes and the Colts’ run defense, as evidenced by their ugly loss to the run-heavy Jaguars last week. And Carson Palmer has been playing much better than Peyton Manning (5 TDs and 6 INTs in his last 5 games) as of late. I do think that Manning will play better today—I don’t expect much in the way of pass defense from either team—but I think that the Bengals’ running game will be too much for the Colts to handle.

My Pick: Bengals win a shootout on the road

Sunday? How the hell is it already Sunday?

I’m running a little low on time here as I woke up at Noon…Let’s save the formalities and get to the picks…

Last Week: 8-8
(SAFE PICKS: 1-4)

Season: 120-88
(SAFE PICKS: 52-31)

Miami (6-7, 2-4 away)
at
Buffalo (6-7, 3-3 home)

Both teams have been hot but I will take the team with the more dominant defense, Miami, to shut down Buffalo’s offense and win this game on the road.

My Pick: Miami moves to .500 on the season

Tampa Bay (3-10, 0-6 away)
at
Chicago (11-2, 5-1 home)

Chicago has shown this season that they are capable of winning or losing against any team in the National Football League. That being said, Grossman looked solid last week and he is facing, at home, one of the worst pass defenses in the league. I’ll take Chicago in a blowout.

My Pick: Bears win big and Grossman’s critics quiet down (for now)
SAFE PICK

Detroit (2-11, 0-6 away)
at
Green Bay (5-8, 1-5 home)

Ok, so the Lions haven’t won in Green Bay in their last gazillion games there. Do you really trust the Packers, who are just 1-5 at home this season, to continue this streak? I don’t…but I trust them more than I trust the Lions, 0-6 on the road this season, to win. And I’d like to see Favre finish off the season strong…we’ll see what happens…

My Pick: Packers find a way to finally win a home game

Jacksonville (8-5, 2-4 away)
at
Tennessee (6-7, 3-3 home)

The Titans have been playing some great football lately but I think that the Jaguars have a great match-up here. Jacksonville boasts the best running game in the AFC and the Titans are 28th in the league in run defense. Assuming that Jacksonville’s pass defense doesn’t pull another Mr. Hyde, the Jaguars should be able to take a short road trip and win, keeping themselves in the driver’s seat for a playoff berth.

My Pick: Jaguars run their way to victory in Tennessee

New York Jets (7-6, 4-2 away)
at
Minnesota (6-7, 3-3 home)

Interestingly, although the Vikings have the worse record, they have the better shot at making the playoffs at this point. The Jets have to compete with the red-hot Bengals and the dangerous Jaguars, who decimated Indianapolis last week. The Vikings are battling a bunch of teams with similar records that are similarly flawed. That being said, the Jets are, without a doubt, the better team. They have a solid quarterback, solid receivers and a similarly talented defense. The Vikings have a good running game and a good defense but their passing game leaves a lot to be desired. If they fall behind, it will be difficult to come back. If they can keep it close, anything’s possible.

My Pick: Jets keep their playoff hopes alive by beating the Vikings

Houston (4-9, 2-5 away)
at
New England (9-4, 4-3 home)

After being embarrassed by the Dolphins last week in a shutout loss, the Patriots are going to be out for blood. I’d hate to be in the Texans’ shoes right now…they are in for a long day on Sunday…

My Pick: Patriots blow out the Texans
SAFE PICK

Washington (4-9, 1-5 away)
at
New Orleans (9-4, 4-2 home)

Are the Saints the sentimental favorite to win the NFC or are they actually the best team? After they went into Dallas and feasted on the Cowboys’ defense last week, I may have to go with the latter. I was thoroughly impressed. And, this team seems to be peaking at the right time, three weeks from the start of the playoffs. Oh, so you want to know if they will beat Washington and their abysmal pass defense at home this week? The word “duh” comes to mind…

My Pick: Saints improve to 5-2 at home
SAFE PICK

Pittsburgh (6-7, 1-5 away)
at
Carolina (6-7, 4-3 home)

Last year’s Super Bowl champs against SI’s NFC pick to reach the Super Bowl this season…my, how the mighty have fallen. The difference between these two teams is that Carolina still has a shot at the playoffs while the Steelers assuredly do not. Will that be enough to propel the Panthers to victory? Well, the Steelers’ secondary has looked pretty bad this year and backup QB Chris Weinke threw for 423 yards last week. If he can cut down on the turnovers, I think that Carolina can pull this one out. Weinke does a much better job of spreading the ball around than Delhomme, who tends to key in on Steve Smith and stubbornly throws into triple coverage.

My Pick: Panthers pounce on the Steelers and get the win

Cleveland (4-9, 2-4 away)
at
Baltimore (10-3, 5-1 home)

This looks like an easy pick, but the Ravens aren’t nearly as good as their record. Cleveland, if they can put some offense together, could keep this close if the Ravens struggle offensively early on, as they have much of this season.

My Pick: Ravens pull it out in the 4th quarter

Denver (7-6, 4-3 away)
at
Arizona (4-9, 3-4 home)

Was switching QBs a symbolic white flag for the Broncos? I don’t think so, because I truly think that Cutler gives them the best chance to win. Their problem is their defense, which has fallen apart over the last month. I think Cutler can generate 21-28 points of offense this week against an average Cardinals’ defense. Will the defense be able to hold the Cardinals to fewer points than that?

My Pick: Cutler gets his first win with the Broncos

St. Louis (5-8, 2-4 away)
at
Oakland (2-11, 2-4 home)

The Rams are still (sadly) alive in the playoff race and they won’t let the hapless Raiders stand in their way.

My Pick: Rams keep their slim playoff hopes alive

Philadelphia (7-6, 3-3 away)
at
New York Giants (7-6, 3-3 home)

The Eagles can’t stop the run and I can guarantee that the Giants are going to take the ball out of Eli Manning’s hands and have Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs stuff it down the Eagles’ throats. Can a revived Jeff Garcia put together enough of a passing game to beat the Giants? It will be close but I’ll take the home team here.

My Pick: Giants move to 8-6 and put themselves in good position to make the playoffs

Kansas City (7-6, 2-4 away)
at
San Diego (11-2, 6-0 home)

The Chiefs are reeling right now and the Chargers are rolling. And, with the best record in the AFC still up for grabs, you wouldn’t expect a letdown here…or would you? Tomlinson just broke the season TD record, the division title is sewn up and the Chiefs are going to have desperation on their side. Do you really expect Trent Green, Larry Johnson and co. to go down quietly? I don’t…

My Pick: Chiefs shock the Chargers on the road

Whew. That’s it for now. Check back later for the Monday night pick…

Saturday Night's Alright (For Football)

Here’s my pick for the Saturday game. Check back later tonight or tomorrow morning for my Sunday picks…

Dallas (8-5, 4-3 away)
at
Atlanta (7-6, 3-3 home)

It would be easy to go with the hot team, Atlanta, which is playing at home and needs to win to keep pace for a playoff spot; but, their top two running backs are hobbled and this team is built around the run. It should also be noted that Dallas’s strength is their passing game (led by Romo, Owens and Glenn) and the Falcons’ secondary has been awful all year. Sure the Cowboys looked bad against the Saints last week but they will rebound from that loss. They’re a much better team than the Falcons are.

My Pick: Cowboys and Romo come back strong and move to 9-5

Thirsty Thursday?

Yet another Thursday game…what gives? Why does the NFL like to put a tired and sloppy product on the field? I’ll give you a hint: It involves something green and I don’t mean Astro Turf.

San Francisco (5-8, 1-5 away)
at
Seattle (8-5, 5-1 home)

Ever since the last-second loss to the Rams a few weeks ago, the ‘9ers have been awful. Their defense has fallen apart and Alex Smith has hardly been impressive. The bright spot has been Frank Gore, who continues to pile up rushing yards and touchdowns. Could he be the best back in the NFC this year? Oh, but you want to know about the game...Well, Seattle has only lost one game at home over the last two seasons and that was when Alexander was injured. San Francisco, on the other hand, is only 1-5 on the road. The Seahawks don’t look particularly impressive but they have pretty much sealed a playoff spot…and I can’t see them losing to mediocre teams from their division two weeks in a row. Here’s to hoping Shaun Alexander has a huge game—I need him to come up big for my fantasy playoffs.

My Pick: Shaun Alexander lifts the Green Mountain Boys errr Seahawks to victory

(Insert Catchy Post Title Here)

This time when I say I am writing this quickly, I truly mean it. Another paper is in the books, but my African History final awaits…and I have yet to study for it. So, here it is, short and sweet…

Chicago (10-2, 5-1 away)
at
St. Louis (5-7, 3-3 home)

It’s do or die time for Bears’ QB Rex Grossman (18 turnovers in his last 7 games) and I don’t see him getting it done tonight…which means that there will probably be a Brian Griese sighting at some point. The Rams are going to come out strong, playing in front of their home crowd and fueled by desperation.

My Pick: Rams win and remain in playoff contention in the woeful NFC

If football and my blog are distracting you from your work...well, you're not the only one...

Classes are over, and exams have begun—after my eight page paper I finished up last night, I have another five pager due Monday and a final bright and early Tuesday morning—and I am in dire need of something engrossing to distract me during study breaks. Enter football. Forget anything resembling academia; the only test that matters for me takes place on Sunday. Can I replicate my brilliance from last week? Read on and find out for yourself…

Last Week: 13-3
(SAFE PICKS: 4-1)

Season: 112-80
(SAFE PICKS: 51-27)

Oakland (2-10, 0-6 away)
at
Cincinnati (7-5, 3-3 home)

As I did last week, ESPN.com is buying into the increase in offensive statistics since Aaron Brooks’ return. Don’t be fooled. Brooks has always been successful at piling up a ton of passing yards…only to inevitably negate them with stupid interceptions.

My Pick: Bengals roll at home
SAFE PICK

Minnesota (5-7, 2-4 away)
at
Detroit (2-10, 2-4 home)

While ESPN.com notes that the Vikings are “still eyeing the postseason”, I doubt that this pipedream will persist much longer. Brad Johnson is washed-up and they have no viable backup to take his place. And to confound this even further, starting running back Chester Taylor, their only viable offensive star, is out. Can you really expect this mess of an offense to go on the road and beat a team that nearly took down the Patriots last week? I can’t see it happening…

My Pick: Lions pick up their third win of the season
SAFE PICK

Baltimore (9-3, 4-2 away)
at
Kansas City (7-5, 5-1 home)

Sure the Chiefs lost to the Browns last week but that was in Cleveland. Kansas City is a completely different team at home than they are on the road. The Ravens’ Steve McNair-dependent offense is due for a bad game, and I think that facing a solid pass defense in Arrowhead, the toughest place to play in the NFL, it will probably happen. And can the Ravens really hold down Larry Johnson? I doubt it.

My Pick: Chiefs move to 6-1 at home

New England (9-3, 5-0 away)
at
Miami (5-7, 3-3 home)

The Patriots look really shaky right now and the Dolphins have played really well during the second half of the season. Miami’s defense should force New England into several turnovers and this game is going to be close. I hate to do pick against my team, but I am taking the home team here in an upset. The Patriots are due for a loss with the way that they’ve played the last couple games.

My Pick: Dolphins shock the Pats

Atlanta (6-6, 3-3 away)
at
Tampa Bay (3-9, 3-3 home)

The Falcons came together last week in Washington and I expect them to feed off of that success and play well again this Sunday. It also helps that Tampa can’t play offense or defense very well…

My Pick: Falcons win their second straight and remain in playoff contention

Philadelphia (6-6, 2-3 away)
at
Washington (4-8, 3-3 home)

Will the trend of home teams unexpectedly winning against favored opponents continue here? I doubt it, as the Jeff Garcia-led Eagles passing game picked apart the Panthers last week and Washington’s secondary has been shaky all season. Can the Eagles really make it to the postseason without McNabb? They have a shot in the historically mediocre NFC…

My Pick: Garcia leads the Eagles back over .500

New York Giants (6-6, 3-3 away)
at
Carolina (6-6, 4-2 home)

Both of these teams badly need this win…the loser will probably have too much to overcome to make the playoffs. Eli Manning did look better last week, which is good news for the Giants, but Tiki Barber has really tailed off and their defense has been merely average. The Panthers have played just fine, well enough to be 9-3 right now. But they are 6-6 because of the awful fourth quarter turnovers of quarterback Jake Delhomme. With Delhomme out this week, Chris Weinke has a chance to steal the starting job by leading the team to victory over the Giants. Will it happen? My crystal ball says…

My Pick: Weinke has a big game and leads the Panthers to victory and into the playoffs

Indianapolis (10-2, 4-2 away)
at
Jacksonville (7-5, 5-1 home)

The Colts’ weak run defense is holding them back right now, and that will be glaringly obvious on Sunday in Jacksonville, where they face a team that is dominant defensively at home, in desperate need of a win and features the best one-two running punch (Fred Taylor and Maurice Drew) in the league.

My Pick: The Jags hand the Colts their second straight loss

Tennessee (5-7, 2-4 away)
at
Houston (4-8, 2-3 home)

The Titans only have one more win than the Texans, but they are a much better team. Since Vince Young took over, Tennessee is 5-4 and has beaten the likes of the Giants and Colts and barely lost to the Ravens, 27-26. This game may be close though, as there has to be a bit of a letdown for the Titans. After all, they did just beat the #1 team in the league last week. Will this be enough for David Carr, Andre Johnson and co. to steal a victory at home? With Vince Young eager to show the Texans what they missed out on when they passed him up in the draft, I doubt it…

My Pick: Titans move to 6-4 under Vince Young

Seattle (8-4, 3-3 away)
at
Arizona (3-9, 2-4 home)

Matt Leinart is putting up some pretty impressive passing numbers lately—as he should with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin as his starting receivers—but Arizona can’t run the ball or stop the run…until last week when they did both against a struggling St. Louis team. I can’t see that happening again with the track history of this defense and offensive line. I’d expect Leinart and the wideouts to get theirs but for James to be shut down and Shaun Alexander to have another huge game. Don’t forget about the defending NFC champs…they’re healthy now and they could sneak up on people come playoff time.

My Pick: Seahawks take another step towards the NFC West Title
SAFE PICK

Green Bay (4-8, 3-3 away)
at
San Francisco (5-7, 4-2 home)

The Packers look awful right now…they can’t put any points on the board and they aren’t stopping anyone either. Now they have to go on the road and face Frank Gore who has been possibly the most dominant offensive player in the NFC this season. This could get ugly…

My Pick: ‘9ers win and keep their playoff hopes alive
SAFE PICK

Buffalo (5-7, 2-4 away)
at
New York Jets (7-5, 3-3 home)

The Bills are banged up right now and the Jets are hot. McGahee has looked good lately and Losman really has been decent but the Bills’ defense has too many injuries right now to shut down a peaking offense on the road.

My Pick: Jets take another step towards a playoff berth
SAFE PICK

Denver (7-5, 4-2 away)
at
San Diego (10-2, 5-0 home)

I can’t say that I entirely agree with ESPN.com’s assessment of this game—Denver is in danger of being blown out—but it will be tough for them to win in San Diego with a struggling offense and a defense that has looked rather ordinary as of late. San Diego’s defense hasn’t looked as solid recently either though, so I expect this game to stay fairly tight. Tomlinson is, as always, the X-factor, and I expect him to have a big game. After all, he already proved that he can run on Denver earlier in the season. I don’t think that there is a defense out there that can hold him down.

My Pick: Chargers stay undefeated at home

New Orleans (8-4, 4-2 away)
at
Dallas (8-4, 4-1 home)

The Saints have as good an offense as any team in the NFC but they are a bit banged up right now. Both Joe Horn and Marques Colston will likely be out again which leaves Drew Brees with Devery Henderson as his only viable target downfield. Reggie Bush broke out last week with four touchdowns and looked dominating but the Saints will need him to do it again in order to have a chance to win this game. New Orleans’ pass defense is not good enough to stop Tony Romo from throwing the ball down the field successfully and Dallas is inevitably going to put up some points. Brees will keep his team in it for most of the game with some deep passes of his own but in the end it won’t be enough.

My Pick: Cowboys prove that they can beat a good team

That’s it for now. Check back on Sunday for the Bears/Rams pick. Time to get back to studying I suppose…

I must be butter...'cause I'm on a roll...

For five weeks, I couldn’t pick myself out of a police lineup…now I am hotter than Natalie Portman in lingerie. Where do I go from here? I can probably only go down because it will be nearly impossible to replicate last week’s success. But hey, I can dream…and my dream starts tonight in Pittsburgh…

Cleveland (4-8, 2-3 away)
at
Pittsburgh (5-7, 4-2 home)

Despite the Steelers’ inconsistency this season, they have been pretty solid at home. That notion will be put to the test tonight as Pittsburgh will be without both of its starting wide receivers. The Browns come in to the game with newfound confidence and a new leader under center (Derek Anderson) who seems to offer more offensive firepower than Charlie Frye has so far this year, as, after Frye left the game with an injury last week, he led Cleveland to their biggest win of the year, an improbable overtime victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. It must be taken into consideration though that the Browns were playing at home, and with a level of anger and embarrassment that they won’t be able to match as they had been shut out at home by the Bengals the previous week. I’m not entirely sure how this game will turn out just because of the mind-numbingly erratic play of the Steelers this year, but I’ll give the defending champs the nod instead of making the trendy upset pick.

My Pick: Steelers move to 5-2 at home

Happiness and Wisdom Abound...

A good week got even better after Josh Brown’s second game winning 50 yard FG of the season handed Jay Cutler a home loss in his debut. To top things off, Tatum Bell and Shaun Alexander both came through with solid games for me to put my fantasy team in the running for a playoff spot. In the words of Simon and Garfunkel, I am “feeling groovy!” Let’s see if I can ride this wave of enlightened ecstasy for one more pick, shall we?

Carolina (6-5, 2-3 away)
at
Philadelphia (5-6, 3-3 home)

It’s really difficult to get a read on the Panthers. Are they the offensively challenged team with a shaky secondary that lost to the Redskins or are they the offensive juggernaut that tore apart the best defense in the league and used a powerful pass-rush led defensive attack to smother their opponent in a win over the Ravens earlier this season. There is no consistency with this team…or with the Eagles for that matter. They have looked brilliant, ordinary (and demoralized after they lost their leader for the year) this season and as such it is hard to predict which team will take the field. But don’t count Philadelphia out just because they lost McNabb for the season. Andy Reid picked up Jeff Garcia in the off-season as insurance in case McNabb got hurt again and he is still a solid quarterback. He can’t do a lot of the things that McNabb can but he is still capable of leading this team to some wins if he gets good production out of his other playmakers. The fact of the matter is, Carolina’s defense is based on its pass rush and a team that has a quarterback who is able to complete a lot of quick short passes, especially to a speedy halfback or a tight end who is a good receiver can have success against them. If you ask me, Jeff Garcia, Brian Westbrook and L.J. Smith are just those types of players. Despite Steve Smith’s penchant for the spotlight, I find it difficult to pick the Panthers and their sputtering offense to win on the road against a team that is desperate for a win and matches up well against them.

My Pick: Eagles even up their record at 6-6 and stay in the playoff hunt

More Beatles, Less Mott the Hoople...

I’m convinced that last week wasn’t a fluke. I am back on the winning side of things and I fully intend on staying there. I’m already off to a 1-0 start and I feel great about the rest of my picks. So, without further ado…

Last Week: 10-6
(SAFE PICKS: 5-3)

Season: 99-77
(SAFE PICKS: 47-26)

San Diego (9-2, 4-2 away)
at
Buffalo (5-6, 3-2 home)

Just when the Bills’ offense has come to life, their run defense, which was solid earlier in the year, has fallen apart, giving up huge rushing totals the last several weeks. Not a good sign with Tomlinson coming to town…

My Pick: LT continues his march towards the record books and lifts his team to victory
SAFE PICK

Minnesota (5-6, 2-3 away)
at
Chicago (9-2, 4-1 home)

Rex Grossman has had some pretty awful games this year, but he seems to be a resilient player. The game after his six turnover nightmare game in Arizona, he put up 252 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers and after his four turnover debacle against Miami, he responded with three touchdown passes as well. I expect him to shake off his bad game last week against the Patriots and pick apart the Vikings’ inconsistent secondary.

My Pick: Bears move to 5-1 at home
SAFE PICK

Kansas City (7-4, 2-3 away)
at
Cleveland (3-8, 1-5 home)

The Browns locker-room is a mess and their defense can’t stop the run. Not a good combination when you are playing against one of the best running backs in the league…

My Pick: Chiefs roll
SAFE PICK

New York Jets (6-5, 3-2 away)
at
Green Bay (4-7, 1-4 home)

Favre is simply not getting it done right now. He has the receivers and the running game to allow him to lift his team to victory, but, with the inconsistency of his passes the past couple weeks, I’m not sure it’s going to happen. I’ll take the Jets, who play hard every week and are well coached.

My Pick: Jets move to 7-5 and stay in playoff contention

Indianapolis (10-1, 4-1 away)
at
Tennessee (4-7, 2-3 home)

The Titans played the Colts close last time out, eventually losing by one point, and I see them giving them another tough game on Sunday. Vince Young is playing really well right now, their pass defense has done a great job of limiting the types of big plays that Manning thrives on, they have a running back who has had a lot of success in his career against the Colts (including this year when he rushed for 123 yards) and the game is in Tennessee. No one else seems to be with me on this, but I am taking the Titans in an upset here.

My Pick: Titans shock the Colts

Arizona (2-9, 0-5 away)
at
St. Louis (5-6, 3-2 home)

Despite mediocre play and a mediocre record of 5-6, the Rams are only one game out of the last wild card spot and the Giants are fading fast. Bulger seemed to get things together last week and their offense looked more like the juggernaut it was at the beginning of the season. Their defense may be shaky still, but, in a shootout, I’ll take Bulger at home over Leinart on the road.

My Pick: Rams win a wild one

Detroit (2-9, 0-5 away)
at
New England (8-3, 3-3 home)

The Detroit offense has been mediocre lately and much of that can be traced back to tailback Kevin Jones, who has been injured the past couple weeks. His return could reinvigorate the Lions a bit, but they are facing a defense that forced five turnovers last week and is playing better than it has all season. And really, Detroit’s defense has no chance of stopping Brady and co.

My Pick: Patriots dispatch the Lions with ease
SAFE PICK

San Francisco (5-6, 1-4 away)
at
New Orleans (7-4, 3-2 home)

The ‘9ers have played well this season, but the Saints’ passing game is unstoppable right now and San Francisco’s secondary is a little shaky. Gore will be able to get his, but I can’t see Alex Smith matching Drew Brees. Also, it’s an away game for the ‘9ers, who are an ugly 1-4 on the road this year.

My Pick: Saints continue their heavenly play
SAFE PICK

Atlanta (5-6, 2-3 away)
at
Washington (4-7, 3-2 home)

The Falcons desperately need a win. Can Washington’s defense (which has been bad all year) be expected to stop Atlanta from getting one? I, for one, don’t trust either team. But I’ll take the Falcons, since Vick is due for one of those crazy games where he throws for three touchdowns and every sportswriter declares that he has finally proven he can be a successful passing quarterback.

My Pick: Falcons pick up a much-needed win on the road

Houston (3-8, 1-5 away)
at
Oakland (2-9, 2-3 home)

You may laugh at me, but I think that Aaron Brooks has been a spark for the Raiders offense. He is much more mobile than Walter and he has a stronger arm. His decision-making skills are always in question but he has talent. I’ll take his team here because the Texans can only beat teams from Jacksonville on the road and the Raiders play much better at home than they do on the road.

My Pick: Raiders move to .500 at home

Jacksonville (6-5, 1-4 away)
at
Miami (5-6, 3-2 home)

Jacksonville has been awful on the road this season (1-4) but traveling to Miami won’t be much of a road trip. More importantly, the Dolphins have been red hot, fueled by a dominant pass-rush led defense and a seemingly reborn Joey Harrington at quarterback. The Jaguars have been inconsistent all season and are coming off of an inexcusable loss to the Bills last week. All signs seem to point towards a Miami victory. But, I have learned my lesson with this team. They always do the exact opposite of what I expect them to do. Therefore, I am picking the Jaguars to win.

My Pick: Jacksonville wins (based on my theory of reverse psychology)

Dallas (7-4, 3-3 away)
at
New York Giants (6-5, 3-2 home)

The Giants really need a win right now and they are playing at home. Still, the Cowboys seem to have the edge. Their offense, led by Tony Romo, has been nothing short of spectacular and their defense has been solid. The Giants need to stop bickering and regain some sense of team unity. Even if they do, will it be enough for them to beat the team that is the class of their division?

My Pick: Cowboys send the G-men to their fourth straight loss

Tampa Bay (3-8, 0-5 away)
at
Pittsburgh (4-7, 3-2 home)

Tampa is 0-5 on the road this year and Gradkowski has been mediocre the past couple weeks. Still, the Pittsburgh secondary has been susceptible to big plays so I could see Joey Galloway getting open frequently. If only Gradkowski could throw a good deep ball…this team really needs Simms. I guess I’ll take the Steelers here. They have underperformed all season but they should be able to beat the struggling Buccaneers at home.

My Pick: Steelers defeat another underperforming team that is outside of the playoff picture

Seattle (7-4, 2-3 away)
at
Denver (7-4, 3-2 home)

Denver’s run defense has been solid for most of the season but has been susceptible to giving up huge yardage totals to stud running backs, as Tomlinson and Larry Johnson showed us the last two weeks. After 201 rushing yards against the Packers, Shaun Alexander looks to be back at stud status, so I expect him to have a big game on Sunday too. The Broncos should be able to do a decent job containing the Seahawks’ passing game but if Alexander has another big game, it may not matter. Especially with rookie quarterback Jay Cutler making his first career start in place of the (finally) supplanted Jake “The Garter Snake” Plummer. There are bound to be some growing pains for Cutler and he is going to experience a lot of pressure from an aggressive defense that leads the AFC in sacks.

My Pick: Seahawks win on the road and spoil Cutler’s debut

That’s it for now. Check back Sunday night for my Monday Night pick...

Why the hell is there an NFL game tonight?

Finally, I am back on the winning side of things. Let’s see if my Thanksgiving luck carries over to the token non-Thanksgiving Thursday game…

Baltimore (9-2, 4-1 away)
at
Cincinnati (6-5, 2-3 home)

It’s redemption time for the Bengals. Last time these two teams met, with a chance to come back, T.J. Houshmandzadeh was mugged by Samiki Rolles without a whistle. I don’t think that the Bengals have forgotten that and I think that they will be motivated to get back at their division rivals. The Ravens’ offense has been playing really well but I don’t think that they can beat the Bengals in a shootout. Their defense will have to have an inspired performance in order for them to win in Cincinnati and I don’t see that happening. Carson Palmer is playing far too well right now (three TD passes or more each of the past three weeks) and he has three top-tier receivers at his disposal. The Ravens’ secondary is good but somebody out of Chris Henry, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh is bound to burn them. The AFC playoff picture is about to get a whole lot more interesting…

My Pick: Redemption is a dish best served in Ohio
SAFE PICK

TGIM

Well, although I am back on the winning side of things, this week still left a bad taste in my mouth. I would be embarrassed to be a Giant or Jaguar fan right now…

But let’s get down to business…

Green Bay (4-6, 3-2 away)
at
Seattle (6-4, 4-1 home)

Storylines abound…Despite his injury last week, Favre returns to start his 252nd consecutive game and continue his pursuit of Dan Marino’s all-time touchdown record. The mentor (Favre) faces the student (Matt Hasselbeck) who is returning from a knee injury that has sidelined him for the past month. Last year’s MVP (Shaun Alexander) is ready to play his first full game since his return from a foot injury that has sidelined him for most of the year. What it really boils down to is this: the Packers’ running backs and offensive line are banged up. Favre will have to carry the Packers in order to win this game, and, as he is hobbled by a couple of bad ankles and a strained muscle, that is quite a tall order. I don’t think that he will be up to the task in hostile territory, facing the defending NFC champs who are finally back at full-strength.

My Pick: Seahawks seize control of the NFC West
SAFE PICK

Pilgrim's Progress...

I had many things to be thankful for this Thanksgiving: Turkey, mashed potatoes, stuffing, a cult-like prayer ceremony before dinner with my righteous right-leaning relatives, a dominating poker tournament win…and having all three of my Thanksgiving picks go in my favor. Let’s hope that the Pilgrims saved me some leftovers for the weekend, because I could really use some help right now…

Last Week: 7-9
(SAFE PICKS: 3-2)

Season: 89-71
(SAFE PICKS: 42-23)



New Orleans (6-4, 3-2 away)
at
Atlanta (5-5, 3-2 home)

The Falcons really need this win and they are playing at home…but, the Saints really need this win too, and their passing game has been outstanding this season while the Atlanta secondary has been atrocious. I’ll give the nod to Drew Brees here…he has averaged over 400 passing yards the past three weeks and while I think he may bring that average down a bit this week, I still see him throwing for over 300 yards and several touchdowns. Stick a fork in the Falcons…they’re done.

My Pick: Saints win an NFC South battle on the road

Jacksonville (6-4, 1-3 away)
at
Buffalo (4-6, 2-2 home)

The Jaguars really surprised me by dismantling the Giants on Monday night. Their defense looked better than then they have looked all season despite all of the players that they have lost to injury. They should have no trouble shutting down Losman and a likely tentative McGahee (returning from a serious rib injury). Their offense is still hindered by their receivers’ hands but Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are pretty reliable in the ground game. I’ll take Jacksonville against any team not from Houston right now…

My Pick: I’m exaggerating slightly in the above statement but they’ll pull out a win against the Bills

Cincinnati (5-5, 3-2 away)
at
Cleveland (3-7, 1-4 home)

Earlier in the season, the Browns gave the Bengals some trouble in Cincinnati. This time around, despite the fact that the Browns have been playing well, I think the Bengals will have their way. Their offense is on fire right now and they need a win to stay in the playoff hunt.

My Pick: Bengals claw down their in-state rivals
SAFE PICK

San Francisco (5-5, 1-3 away)
at
St. Louis (4-6, 2-2 home)

The 49ers beat the Rams already this season and are riding high after their win over the division-leading Seahawks last week. Naturally, I am picking against them because there will be a letdown after the win against Seattle and because they won’t be able to beat the Rams, who are a superior team, twice in one season. Gotcha! I learned my lesson after picking against Houston in their second game against Jacksonville. The ‘9ers have the Rams’ number and St. Louis is really struggling right now. Frank Gore has looked as impressive as any running back not known by their initials this season. San Francisco…so hot right now!

My Pick: Ridin’ the smog heat wave…

Arizona (2-8, 0-4 away)
at
Minnesota (4-6, 2-3 home)

The Vikings were impressive for the first third of the season but the combination of injuries to their offensive line, a non-existent passing game and an inconsistent secondary have doomed them to mediocrity. A finally healthy Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are chomping at the bit to get on the artificial turf and tear things up.

My Pick: The Cardinals pick up their first road win of the season

Houston (3-7, 1-4 away)
at
New York Jets (5-5, 2-3 home)

The Jets’ mediocre kryptonite team is the Browns…anyone else that they are supposed to beat, they will.

My Pick: Jets win at home and move back over .500
SAFE PICK

Carolina (6-4, 2-2 away)
at
Washington (3-7, 2-2 home)

I haven’t done the recipe gimmick in a while…let’s give it another go:
A rookie quarterback in his second career start, backed by an inconsistent offensive line + a surging defense powered by the best pass rusher in the league + the worst pass defense in the league + the fastest and best overall receiver in the league = Tell your kids to cover their eyes…

My Pick: Panthers overpower the ‘skins
SAFE PICK

Pittsburgh (4-6, 1-4 away)
at
Baltimore (8-2, 4-1 home)

Take a good look at the Baltimore Ravens and tell me with a straight face that they are a legit 8-2 team. Then, take a good look at the Pittsburgh Steelers and tell me, given their track record and their personnel, that they are a 4-6 team. Justice will prevail…if the ghosts of the Pilgrims will it to be so of course.

My Pick: The Steelers will give me something else to be thankful for
SAFE PICK

Oakland (2-8, 0-5 away)
at
San Diego (8-2, 4-0 home)

Oakland is winless on the road and has an awful offense…San Diego is undefeated at home and has an overpowering offense. That’s all you really need to know about this game…

My Pick: The Chargers win at home in convincing fashion
SAFE PICK

New York Giants (6-4, 3-2 away)
at
Tennessee (3-7, 1-3 home)

The Giants, after losing two straight, really need to win this game. The Titans have played well as of late but they are facing a team that is much more talented than they are and is desperate.

My Pick: Chalk up a much-needed win for the G-men
SAFE PICK

Chicago (9-1, 5-0 away)
at
New England (7-3, 2-3 home)

My name may not be Dennis Green but I know who the Bears are: a very talented team on both sides of the ball that is prone to offensive and subsequent defensive lapses when their quarterback has a bad game. I’m not sure who the Patriots are. I’ve seen them look both dominating and diminutive this season. After this game, I think I will have a much better idea of what this team is capable of this season. Theoretically, Belichick’s confusing blitzing schemes will wreck havoc on Rex Grossman and force him into many turnovers. Theoretically, Brady will spread the ball all around the field and, given ample opportunity to pick the Bears’ defense apart, will do so. Will that play out on Sunday? Let's wait and see…

My Pick: My money’s on Brady and the Pats but it’s a pretty small wager

Philadelphia (5-5, 2-2 away)
at
Indianapolis (9-1, 5-0 home)

The Eagles just lost their leader for the season and potentially part of next year with a torn ACL. How well can you expect them to play after that? Also, Jeff Garcia is incapable of throwing the ball further than 10 yards down the field these days…

My Pick: Colts pick up where they left off 2 weeks ago…before the Cowboys got in the way of history
SAFE PICK

That’s all for now, but don’t you worry. There will definitely be some Thanksgiving leftovers in store for you before Monday night…

A Tiny Taste of Pigskin mixed with Turkey...

Another week, another sub-.500 picking performance by me…maybe I need a Thanksgiving feast to rejuvenate myself. At any rate, we have a couple of putrid Thanksgiving afternoon match-ups, as usual, and a nightcap that should be pretty exciting. Here it goes…

Miami (4-6, 1-4 away)
at
Detroit (2-8, 2-3 home)

An inconsistent passing game and an injured Kevin Jones spell trouble for the hometown Lions in the early game. Look for Joey Harrington to get the best of his old team in his return to Detroit. Miami’s surging and their defense is playing superbly right now…

My Pick: Dolphins keep rolling
SAFE PICK (If Kevin Jones doesn’t play)

Tampa Bay (3-7, 0-4 away)
at
Dallas (6-4, 3-1 home)

Tampa is winless on the road this season, and for good reason: they aren’t that good. Gradkowski has played well enough to keep them in games, but not well enough to win most of them. Dallas just knocked off the previously undefeated Colts on Sunday, so one might expect there to be a bit of a letdown in a game played four days after, but I don’t expect them to lose here. Their front line will harass Gradkowski all afternoon and their offense is rolling right now.

My Pick: Cowboys corral another win

Denver (7-3, 4-1 away)
at
Kansas City (6-4, 4-1 home)

The Broncos have to be a bit rattled after they blew a 24-7 lead to the Chargers at home and ended up losing on Sunday. Now they have to play a game four days after, in Arrowhead, the toughest place to play in the NFL. The Broncos’ pass defense looked solid earlier in the year but it has struggled as of late. I expect to see Trent Green, now that he has shaken off the rust from not playing for half of a season, pick them apart as well. And Larry Johnson is another top-flight runner that, like Tomlinson, is good enough to neutralize Denver’s tough run defense.

My Pick: Chiefs win their 5th game at home this season
SAFE PICK

Have a great Thanksgiving everyone…I’m off to eat some turkey and play me some video games…

I am speechless...

I am without speech!
After the way things played out picks-wise and fantasy-wise this week, I really have nothing to say. I could say that I am demoralized and despondent but even that would not completely capture the depths of my emotions.


New York Giants (6-3, 3-1 away)
at
Jacksonville (5-4, 4-1 home)

Two teams with great running games and banged-up defenses playing on Monday Night…I’ll take the team with the better passing game (even with Eli’s recent struggles). Although the Giants are on the road, as the Texans showed us, the Jaguars can be beaten at home. And their receivers drop way too many passes to be successful. They remind me of the Seahawks team that missed the playoffs a couple years ago because Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson couldn’t catch the ball.

My Pick: Giants win on the road
SAFE PICK

Say it ain't so...

My guarantee was a heartbreaker…
Perhaps it would have been more effective had I actually put something on the line. Perhaps it would have been more effective had I not overanalyzed my picks.
Perhaps it would have been more effective had I not been on the losing end of two tossups.
Perhaps I better stop making redundant excuses for myself and move on…

Last Week: 7-9
(SAFE PICKS: 4-4)

Season: 82-62
(SAFE PICKS: 39-21)

Pittsburgh (3-6, 0-4 away)
at
Cleveland (3-6, 1-3 home)

The Steelers are winless on the road and the Browns are only 1-3 at home…something’s got to give...Most likely one or both teams’ secondaries, which have both been awful this season. Roethlisberger should be able to have a huge game here and lead his team to victory, but he’s been so inconsistent this year that I don’t completely trust him. The Steelers do have a huge advantage in the running department as Willie Parker is 4th in the league in rushing and is always a threat to break a big run. Rueben Droughns? He’s not awful but his offensive line is which really hinders his running…

My Pick: Steelers pull out their first road win

New England (6-3, 4-0 away)
at
Green Bay (4-5, 1-3 home)

The Patriots are and always will be my team, but they have me worried right now. Everyone in the media keeps repeating that it would be impossible for Belichick/Brady to lose three games in a row but I am not so sure. While the good ol’ gunslinger Brett Favre can be stubborn and interception-prone at times, the Patriots really lack the personnel to stop their passing game right now. Driver and Jennings are both top-flight receivers and will have a field-day against the Patriots’ severely depleted secondary. Both of New England’s starting safeties (Rodney Harrison and Asante Samuel) are out and their starting cornerbacks (Ellis Hobbs and Eugene Wilson) are listed as questionable. The New England offense is going to have to play at a level light years ahead of where they were last week and it’s going to be tough for them to pull this out on the road against a team that needs the win more than they do.

My Pick: Packers shock the media and move to .500

Oakland (2-7, 0-4 away)
Kansas City (5-4, 3-1 home)

Damon Huard did a nice job holding down the fort, but now Trent Green, one of the most productive quarterbacks over the last five years, is back in action. He may be a bit rusty and have some trouble against a surprisingly good Oakland secondary, but the Chiefs’ improved defense will have no trouble smothering the Raiders’ non-existent passing game regardless of whether it is Walter or Brooks running the show.

My Pick: Chiefs pick up the win at home
SAFE PICK

Minnesota (4-5, 2-2 away)
at
Miami (3-6, 2-2 home)

I still don’t trust the Dolphins (especially the Harrington-led passing game), but their defense has really come to life the past couple weeks. With Hutchinson and Richardson out for the rest of the season, the Vikings’ running game is going to be hampered and their passing game has been anemic of late, to say the least. I can’t see the Vikes getting it together this week on the road against a team that is playing really good defensively.

My Pick: The ‘Phins finish off the Vikings’ playoff hopes
SAFE PICK

Cincinnati (4-5, 2-2 away)
at
New Orleans (6-3, 3-1 home)

With both teams’ offenses lighting it up right now, I expect a shootout. There is no way that either team’s defense can stop the other team’s offense so I see this coming down to whoever has the ball in the final seconds pulling out the win. I’ll give the Bengals the edge since they really need the win.

My Pick: Bengals win a wild one and move back to .500

Chicago (8-1, 4-0 away)
at
New York Jets (5-4, 2-2 home)

The Jets played a great game last week when they beat the Patriots but there is bound to be a letdown this week. Chicago is not a team that you want to have a letdown game against. They will destroy a team that is not mentally prepared to play with them. The Bears will likely jump out to a big lead and then ride Thomas Jones (against the second worst rush defense in the league) the rest of the way.

My Pick: DA BEARS!
SAFE PICK

Tennessee (2-7, 1-4 away)
at
Philadelphia (5-4, 3-2 home)

The Eagles could overlook this game but I don’t think that they will. At 5-4 in a very competitive division, they can’t afford to. The Titans have a pretty solid running game but Vince Young can only do so much in the passing game. If the Eagles’ explosive offense stakes them out to a big lead and Young if forced to throw the ball a lot, it will be a long day for the Titans. Young, at this point in his career, makes way too many mistakes throwing the ball down the field and as such is prone to interceptions.

My Pick: Eagles soar to victory! (Eat your heart out USA Today)

Washington (3-6, 1-4 away)
at
Tampa Bay (2-7, 2-3 home)

Tampa had been playing pretty well, but they have to be demoralized after their Monday Night loss to the Panthers when they wasted countless opportunities. The Redskins will be without Clinton Portis but Betts is a solid backup and I think that new starting QB Jason Campbell will spark the passing game, which has been stagnant the last couple weeks and in much need of a change.

My Pick: Redskins make the demoralized Buccaneers walk the plank

St. Louis (4-5, 2-3 away)
at
Carolina (5-4, 3-2 home)

The Rams’ recent floundering and the Panthers’ emotional victory last week aside, let’s focus on the most important match-up here: the Julius Peppers-led Panthers front line versus the Orlando Pace-less banged up offensive line of the Rams. Bulger is going to see pressure all afternoon and I don’t think that he is going to have enough time in the pocket to make any big plays. He really hasn’t had a bad game all year, so I think he’s due…

My Pick: Panthers sack the Rams

Atlanta (5-4, 2-2 away)
at
Baltimore (7-2, 3-1 home)

Michael Vick always does exactly the opposite of what you expect him to do. His consistent inconsistency is quite uncanny. Everyone was ready to pronounce him the best passer in the league three weeks ago after he had put up 40+ points on the Steelers and tore apart the Bengals. Since then, the Falcons have lost two games to teams that, statistically, they should have destroyed: the Lions and then the Browns. So now everyone has given up on Vick and the Falcons and is counting them out of the playoff hunt…everyone that is, except for me. I’m expecting Vick to have a huge game against the Ray Lewis-less Ravens defense, which has looked much less dominating in recent weeks but has benefited from an improved offense.

My Pick: Falcons “shock” the Ravens
SAFE PICK

Buffalo (3-6, 1-4 away)
at
Houston (3-6, 2-2 home)

So, the Texans are favored to win their second game in a row for the first time in recent memory? I’m not buying it. The Bills’ defense has looked really good the last few weeks and the Texans’ offense, despite their victory last week, has really regressed. Houston’s running game is again up in the air as Lundy has reverted to early season form and Gado hasn’t been much better. As for the Bills…McGahee is still out but Anthony Thomas has done an excellent job filling in the last two weeks and I expect him to have another solid outing against an awful Texans’ run defense.

My Pick: The Bills take care of business on the road

Detroit (2-7, 0-4 away)
at
Arizona (1-8, 1-4 home)

I’m still not sure how the Lions managed to lose to the 49ers last week but I am confident that they won’t lose to two awful NFC West teams in a row. Their offense is too good and their opponent’s too bad for that to happen. Then again, it was a similar thought process that made me incorrectly pick Detroit last week, so who knows?

My Pick: Lions pounce on the Cardinals

Seattle (6-3, 2-2 away)
at
San Francisco (4-5, 3-2 home)

I’m not sure why there is the perception that the 49ers will pull off the upset here. They have upset two teams in row to seemingly get back into the playoff race, but their team really isn’t that great. Gore has played well but their passing game has been only so-so and their defense has been the beneficiary of a lot of luck. With Shaun Alexander making his emotional return and Seattle wanting to get him re-acclimated with the offense, there won’t be any letdown from their last-second victory over the Rams last week.

My Pick: Seahawks capitalize on Alexander’s return

Indianapolis (9-0, 4-0 away)
at
Dallas (5-4, 2-1 home)

Many media members expect the Colts to lose this game, but after how lethargically they played against the Bills, I expect Tony Dungy to have his team fired up this week. The Colts do seem to play down to the level of their opponent at times but there will be none of that this week in Dallas. Romo will probably have a solid game and Julius Jones should tear it up against the league’s worst rush defense, but Peyton Manning will manhandle the Cowboy’s suspect secondary.

My Pick: Colts move to 10-0

San Diego (7-2, 3-2 away)
at
Denver (7-2, 3-1 home)

History repeats itself. This is a fact of life. A fact that LaDanian Tomlinson, who has never had more than 75 rushing yards against Denver in his career, knows all too well. Denver is great at stopping the run regardless of opponent, but they really have Tomlinson’s number (holding him to 3.4 yards per carry in his career). This will continue again on Sunday, forcing Rivers to air it up against two of the best cover corners in the league in a hostile environment where the opposing defense feeds off of the crowd. I don’t think that this looks like a good formula for success for San Diego.

My Pick: The Broncos show why “D” is the first letter in their city’s name

15 down, 1 to go. Check back on Monday for details on the Jack Del Rio Bowl...

Cold Turkey's Gettin' Stale...

…tonight I’m eating crow! So much for my guarantee. Nine incorrect picks later and I am left picking up the pieces yet again. Can I salvage a 7-9 week tonight? I guess it’s worth a try…

Tampa Bay (2-6, 0-3 away)
at
Carolina (4-4, 2-2 home)

In the last two games that they’ve played, the Tampa Bay cornerbacks have been burned by speedy receivers (Marques Colston and Plaxico Burress). They’ll encounter an even tougher hurdle tonight, facing Steve Smith, the most explosive receiver in the game. Coming off a BYE week, I am pretty sure that John Fox will have a pretty good offensive game plan that will implement the finally healthy Smith as much as possible. Bruce Gradikowski was a feel-good story at first, but in his last couple outings he hasn’t looked too impressive. I don’t think he has what it takes to lead his team to victory on the road against a hungry, rested and well-prepared Panthers team.

My Pick: Steve Smith leads the way as the Panthers roll
SAFE PICK

A Shiny, Red Guarantee!

Yep, it’s that time again. The time of the week when you read my blog, expecting insightful analysis that will help you decide which team you should pick in each NFL game. Well, despite three straight weeks of picking fewer games right than wrong, I still think that I provide this service. I’m just in a bit of a slump…which I guarantee I will break out of this week! That’s right, I am guaranteeing that I will pick more games correctly than incorrectly this week. That doesn’t sound like much I know, but given my recent history it will be a huge step forward. For those of you scoring at home, here are the aforementioned numbers:

Last Week: 6-8
(SAFE PICKS: 2-4)

Season: 75-53
(SAFE PICKS: 35-17)

Cleveland (2-6, 1-3 away)
at
Atlanta (5-3, 3-1 home)

As it turns out, Michael Vick isn’t the second coming of Joe Montana after all. The Lions dominated the Falcons on both sides of the ball last week and I think it’s safe to say that all expectations for Atlanta and Vick have now been tempered. Funny, I picked that to happen. Granted, it was one of only six games that I picked correctly, but I still feel like I should be allowed to pat myself on the back for picking an upset that wasn’t even on anyone else’s radar. Anyway, about this game…The Browns have looked better the last couple weeks, beating the Jets and playing a tight game with the Chargers. I don’t think that they can beat the Falcons in Atlanta though. Charlie Frye may be able to generate some yardage through the air and put some points on the board, but it won’t be enough. The Falcons are the best in the business at running the ball and the Browns’ rushing defense is awful.

My Pick: Falcons run to victory at home
SAFE PICK

San Diego (6-2, 2-2 away)
at
Cincinnati (4-4, 2-2 home)

It’s time for the Bengals’ talented offensive players to stop bickering, shut up and play. They have the most talent in the AFC Central and they should be ahead in the division. Instead, they are staring up at the Ravens after losing to them last week. The Bengals need to get their act together quickly or they will be watching the playoffs from their living rooms. They are perfectly capable of beating the Chargers at home in a must-win game, but will they? They need to start generating more of the big plays that fueled their explosive offense last season and it all starts with Carson Palmer. Because Palmer’s throwing mechanics are still a little off, the Bengals have thrown the ball down the field quite a bit less than last season which has limited their offense and Palmer and Chad Johnson’s statistics. These guys are too good to play this poorly. I expect them to pull it together this week and pick up the upset win at home.

My Pick: Bengals get back on track

San Francisco (3-5, 0-3 away)
at
Detroit (2-6, 2-2 home)

Last week’s 9-3 ‘9ers win over the Vikings posed the following question for us amateur football analysts: Is the San Francisco defense that good or is the Minnesota offense that bad? I’ll take the latter. The Lions have a potent passing game and I expect them to continue to pile up yards through the air. Kevin Jones should have another big day on the ground as well.

My Pick: Lions bring the ‘9ers back to earth
SAFE PICK

Baltimore (6-2, 3-1 away)
at
Tennessee (2-6, 1-2 home)

The Titans have a good running game but they inexplicably abandoned it last time out. If they can take some pressure off of Vince Young by establishing the run, their defense will be able to hold down McNair and the Ravens and keep this thing close. I still see Baltimore pulling it out though.

My Pick: Ravens hold on for the win

Buffalo (3-5, 1-3 away)
at
Indianapolis (8-0, 4-0 home)

The Bills did next to nothing on offense against an awful Packers defense last week and lost their only bona fide talent, McGahee, with three broken ribs. Creating a couple of turnovers on defense and making one or two plays on offense will get you a win against Green Bay but I can’t see this success translating over to a road game against the Colts.

My Pick: Colts roll to 9-0
SAFE PICK

Kansas City (5-3, 2-2 away)
at
Miami (2-6, 1-2 home)

Miami’s one highlight of this season was their win over the previously undefeated Bears. I expect them to revert back to their earlier mediocre form this week as they face a premier running back who is tearing it up and a quarterback who takes care of the ball and mans a passing game that is efficient if not spectacular. The Chiefs look like a playoff team to me…

My Pick: Chiefs continue to roll
SAFE PICK

Green Bay (3-5, 2-2 away)
at
Minnesota (4-4, 2-2 home)

I was very disappointed in both of these teams last week. Do I really need to pick a winner here? Since I have to pick one of them, I will go with the Packers. They generated enough offense to beat the Bills but made crucial errors in the red zone which cost them the game.

My Pick: Packers beat the struggling Vikings

New York Jets (4-4, 2-2 away)
at
New England (6-2, 2-2 home)

I know that the Jets are 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per game, but I think that they have a shot in this game. The Patriots’ secondary seems a lot weaker without Rodney Harrison. If Chad Pennington can put together a solid game, he should be able to find Crotchery and Coles for some big gains. It’ll be close…

My Pick: …But I’m taking the Patriots

Washington (3-5, 1-3 away)
at
Philadelphia (4-4, 2-2 home)

The Cowboys’ copious miscues last week have given the Redskins a second life of sorts…will they take advantage of it? My bet is they won’t. Their passing defense has been awful this year and, despite their win, their secondary didn’t look any better. If Owens could actually catch the ball, they would have been blown out last week. I think that Stallworth and Brown will be able to find similar separation in the secondary and that McNabb will rebound from his abysmal performance two weeks ago. The Eagles need this win just as much as the Redskins do and with their superior personnel, they will get it.

My Pick: Eagles get back into the win column
SAFE PICK

Houston (2-6, 0-4 away)
at
Jacksonville (5-3, 4-0 home)

The Texans blew the Jaguars out in their last meeting and the Jags are out for revenge. If you lose to the Texans twice in one season, you don’t deserve to make the playoffs. Remember that, Jack Del Rio! You also don’t deserve to make the playoffs if your receivers drop half of the passes thrown their direction…but I digress. Houston will put up a few points via Carr-to-Johnson but their defense will be torn apart by Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.

My Pick: The Jaguars avenge their earlier loss in Houston
SAFE PICK

Denver (6-2, 3-1 away)
at
Oakland (2-6, 2-2 home)

Oakland’s offense is simply pathetic. Denver’s defense is really good. Enough said.

My Pick: Broncos blow out Raiders in Oakland
SAFE PICK

Dallas (4-4, 2-3 away)
at
Arizona (1-7, 1-3 home)

Romo looked really good again last week but an inexplicable combination of dropped passes, stupid penalties and a special teams meltdown cost them the win. They should have no trouble beating up on a Cardinals team that looks like it has packed it in for the season.

My Pick: Cowboys move back over .500
SAFE PICK

New Orleans (6-2, 3-1 away)
at
Pittsburgh (2-6, 2-2 home)

As sloppy as Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers’ offense have been, the defense has been equally at fault. They allowed 4 TD passes and over 40 points to a Falcons’ passing game that the Lions easily shut down last week. The Saints’ offense is rolling right now as Drew Brees keeping piling up 300 yard games and they keep winning. What do the Steelers have to counter that? Pride? I should probably give them the benefit of the doubt since they are playing at home and they did win the Super Bowl last year but they look pretty awful to me.

My Pick: Saints drive the final nail in the Steel coffin

St. Louis (4-4, 2-2 away)
at
Seattle (5-3, 3-1 home)

The Rams have been struggling lately but it has mostly been a result of ill-timed fumbles by the receivers and Steven Jackson, trying to fight for an extra yard or two. Marc Bulger continues to throw the ball efficiently and effectively and has been unfazed by the wide variety of defenses that he has had thrown at him this season. I don’t really trust the Seahawks’ secondary right now so I expect Bulger’s success to continue in Seattle. The Seahawks are still without their two offensive leaders, Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander (who is listed as doubtful but has essentially been ruled out), and I don’t think that the home field advantage will be enough for them to beat their only real division rival.

My Pick: Rams are up to the test and win in Qwest

Chicago (7-1, 3-0 away)
at
New York Giants (6-2, 3-1 home)

The Bears were exposed by the Dolphins last week and things aren’t getting any easier; now, they have to travel to Giants Stadium to face a team that is playing as well as anyone in the NFC right now. The Bears’ offense isn’t clicking as well without deep threat Bernard Berrian (out with an injury) who really opens up the rest of the offense with his big play ability. Thomas Jones has been inconsistent running the ball and so now the onus for the offense is completely on Rex Grossman’s shoulders. He seems to be prone to pressure, so I expect the Giants to blitz frequently and try to force him into mistakes. On the other side of the field, the Giants get Plaxico Burress back this week. The Bears’ corners are good but they can be beat. Burress has the right combination of speed and size to be effective against them. This has all the makings of a great game and I expect it to be pretty competitive.

My Pick: I’ll take the home team here

That’s all for now…Remember, I guarantee that I will pick more of the above games correctly than incorrectly. Check back in a few days for the Monday Night pick…