Say it ain't so...

My guarantee was a heartbreaker…
Perhaps it would have been more effective had I actually put something on the line. Perhaps it would have been more effective had I not overanalyzed my picks.
Perhaps it would have been more effective had I not been on the losing end of two tossups.
Perhaps I better stop making redundant excuses for myself and move on…

Last Week: 7-9
(SAFE PICKS: 4-4)

Season: 82-62
(SAFE PICKS: 39-21)

Pittsburgh (3-6, 0-4 away)
at
Cleveland (3-6, 1-3 home)

The Steelers are winless on the road and the Browns are only 1-3 at home…something’s got to give...Most likely one or both teams’ secondaries, which have both been awful this season. Roethlisberger should be able to have a huge game here and lead his team to victory, but he’s been so inconsistent this year that I don’t completely trust him. The Steelers do have a huge advantage in the running department as Willie Parker is 4th in the league in rushing and is always a threat to break a big run. Rueben Droughns? He’s not awful but his offensive line is which really hinders his running…

My Pick: Steelers pull out their first road win

New England (6-3, 4-0 away)
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Green Bay (4-5, 1-3 home)

The Patriots are and always will be my team, but they have me worried right now. Everyone in the media keeps repeating that it would be impossible for Belichick/Brady to lose three games in a row but I am not so sure. While the good ol’ gunslinger Brett Favre can be stubborn and interception-prone at times, the Patriots really lack the personnel to stop their passing game right now. Driver and Jennings are both top-flight receivers and will have a field-day against the Patriots’ severely depleted secondary. Both of New England’s starting safeties (Rodney Harrison and Asante Samuel) are out and their starting cornerbacks (Ellis Hobbs and Eugene Wilson) are listed as questionable. The New England offense is going to have to play at a level light years ahead of where they were last week and it’s going to be tough for them to pull this out on the road against a team that needs the win more than they do.

My Pick: Packers shock the media and move to .500

Oakland (2-7, 0-4 away)
Kansas City (5-4, 3-1 home)

Damon Huard did a nice job holding down the fort, but now Trent Green, one of the most productive quarterbacks over the last five years, is back in action. He may be a bit rusty and have some trouble against a surprisingly good Oakland secondary, but the Chiefs’ improved defense will have no trouble smothering the Raiders’ non-existent passing game regardless of whether it is Walter or Brooks running the show.

My Pick: Chiefs pick up the win at home
SAFE PICK

Minnesota (4-5, 2-2 away)
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Miami (3-6, 2-2 home)

I still don’t trust the Dolphins (especially the Harrington-led passing game), but their defense has really come to life the past couple weeks. With Hutchinson and Richardson out for the rest of the season, the Vikings’ running game is going to be hampered and their passing game has been anemic of late, to say the least. I can’t see the Vikes getting it together this week on the road against a team that is playing really good defensively.

My Pick: The ‘Phins finish off the Vikings’ playoff hopes
SAFE PICK

Cincinnati (4-5, 2-2 away)
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New Orleans (6-3, 3-1 home)

With both teams’ offenses lighting it up right now, I expect a shootout. There is no way that either team’s defense can stop the other team’s offense so I see this coming down to whoever has the ball in the final seconds pulling out the win. I’ll give the Bengals the edge since they really need the win.

My Pick: Bengals win a wild one and move back to .500

Chicago (8-1, 4-0 away)
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New York Jets (5-4, 2-2 home)

The Jets played a great game last week when they beat the Patriots but there is bound to be a letdown this week. Chicago is not a team that you want to have a letdown game against. They will destroy a team that is not mentally prepared to play with them. The Bears will likely jump out to a big lead and then ride Thomas Jones (against the second worst rush defense in the league) the rest of the way.

My Pick: DA BEARS!
SAFE PICK

Tennessee (2-7, 1-4 away)
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Philadelphia (5-4, 3-2 home)

The Eagles could overlook this game but I don’t think that they will. At 5-4 in a very competitive division, they can’t afford to. The Titans have a pretty solid running game but Vince Young can only do so much in the passing game. If the Eagles’ explosive offense stakes them out to a big lead and Young if forced to throw the ball a lot, it will be a long day for the Titans. Young, at this point in his career, makes way too many mistakes throwing the ball down the field and as such is prone to interceptions.

My Pick: Eagles soar to victory! (Eat your heart out USA Today)

Washington (3-6, 1-4 away)
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Tampa Bay (2-7, 2-3 home)

Tampa had been playing pretty well, but they have to be demoralized after their Monday Night loss to the Panthers when they wasted countless opportunities. The Redskins will be without Clinton Portis but Betts is a solid backup and I think that new starting QB Jason Campbell will spark the passing game, which has been stagnant the last couple weeks and in much need of a change.

My Pick: Redskins make the demoralized Buccaneers walk the plank

St. Louis (4-5, 2-3 away)
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Carolina (5-4, 3-2 home)

The Rams’ recent floundering and the Panthers’ emotional victory last week aside, let’s focus on the most important match-up here: the Julius Peppers-led Panthers front line versus the Orlando Pace-less banged up offensive line of the Rams. Bulger is going to see pressure all afternoon and I don’t think that he is going to have enough time in the pocket to make any big plays. He really hasn’t had a bad game all year, so I think he’s due…

My Pick: Panthers sack the Rams

Atlanta (5-4, 2-2 away)
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Baltimore (7-2, 3-1 home)

Michael Vick always does exactly the opposite of what you expect him to do. His consistent inconsistency is quite uncanny. Everyone was ready to pronounce him the best passer in the league three weeks ago after he had put up 40+ points on the Steelers and tore apart the Bengals. Since then, the Falcons have lost two games to teams that, statistically, they should have destroyed: the Lions and then the Browns. So now everyone has given up on Vick and the Falcons and is counting them out of the playoff hunt…everyone that is, except for me. I’m expecting Vick to have a huge game against the Ray Lewis-less Ravens defense, which has looked much less dominating in recent weeks but has benefited from an improved offense.

My Pick: Falcons “shock” the Ravens
SAFE PICK

Buffalo (3-6, 1-4 away)
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Houston (3-6, 2-2 home)

So, the Texans are favored to win their second game in a row for the first time in recent memory? I’m not buying it. The Bills’ defense has looked really good the last few weeks and the Texans’ offense, despite their victory last week, has really regressed. Houston’s running game is again up in the air as Lundy has reverted to early season form and Gado hasn’t been much better. As for the Bills…McGahee is still out but Anthony Thomas has done an excellent job filling in the last two weeks and I expect him to have another solid outing against an awful Texans’ run defense.

My Pick: The Bills take care of business on the road

Detroit (2-7, 0-4 away)
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Arizona (1-8, 1-4 home)

I’m still not sure how the Lions managed to lose to the 49ers last week but I am confident that they won’t lose to two awful NFC West teams in a row. Their offense is too good and their opponent’s too bad for that to happen. Then again, it was a similar thought process that made me incorrectly pick Detroit last week, so who knows?

My Pick: Lions pounce on the Cardinals

Seattle (6-3, 2-2 away)
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San Francisco (4-5, 3-2 home)

I’m not sure why there is the perception that the 49ers will pull off the upset here. They have upset two teams in row to seemingly get back into the playoff race, but their team really isn’t that great. Gore has played well but their passing game has been only so-so and their defense has been the beneficiary of a lot of luck. With Shaun Alexander making his emotional return and Seattle wanting to get him re-acclimated with the offense, there won’t be any letdown from their last-second victory over the Rams last week.

My Pick: Seahawks capitalize on Alexander’s return

Indianapolis (9-0, 4-0 away)
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Dallas (5-4, 2-1 home)

Many media members expect the Colts to lose this game, but after how lethargically they played against the Bills, I expect Tony Dungy to have his team fired up this week. The Colts do seem to play down to the level of their opponent at times but there will be none of that this week in Dallas. Romo will probably have a solid game and Julius Jones should tear it up against the league’s worst rush defense, but Peyton Manning will manhandle the Cowboy’s suspect secondary.

My Pick: Colts move to 10-0

San Diego (7-2, 3-2 away)
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Denver (7-2, 3-1 home)

History repeats itself. This is a fact of life. A fact that LaDanian Tomlinson, who has never had more than 75 rushing yards against Denver in his career, knows all too well. Denver is great at stopping the run regardless of opponent, but they really have Tomlinson’s number (holding him to 3.4 yards per carry in his career). This will continue again on Sunday, forcing Rivers to air it up against two of the best cover corners in the league in a hostile environment where the opposing defense feeds off of the crowd. I don’t think that this looks like a good formula for success for San Diego.

My Pick: The Broncos show why “D” is the first letter in their city’s name

15 down, 1 to go. Check back on Monday for details on the Jack Del Rio Bowl...