Super Bowl that pick!

So here we are: two hours before the ‘Big Game,’ and I have yet to post my pick. I never actually bothered to post my AFC/NFC Championship game picks either, but as you probably guessed, I went 1-1. The truth of the matter is, I do not know what to make of this Giants team. They looked shaky all year, played a great game against the Patriots in Week 17, and suddenly, after two monumental upsets, we have a Super Bowl rematch between New England and New York (N). Both of the Giants’ lines, offensive and defensive, look phenomenal, as one would expect, given that their team has been based around these two areas for several years now, but every other facet of their team has improved significantly in the past month. Their secondary is making plays, no matter who is out there, and Eli Manning made it his New Year’s resolution not to turn the ball over ever again. I suspect that Belichick, given two weeks and the game film from the December match-up, will come up with a defensive game plan involving lots of disguised blitzes that will rattle Eli; I think that if the Patriots’ offensive line (which is the best line they’ve had in the Brady/Belichick era) gives Brady time to throw, Moss will get open deep against New York’s overachieving secondary; I think that the Patriots, on paper, are huge favorites to win this game. But the game is not played on paper, and the Giants have defied my expectations at every turn this postseason. They remind me of that overachieving Panthers team that peaked at just the right time, came into the Super Bowl with a lot of confidence, and almost pulled off the upset. I do believe that the Patriots will win this game, but I cannot say I feel nearly as confident about that fact as one might expect.

My Pick: The Giants cover the spread, and keep this one interesting until the end, but the Patriots prevail (16-0!!!)

Playoff Picks (Take 2)

Last Week:
Overall: 2-2
SAFE PICKS: 2-1

Seattle (10-6, 3-5 away)
at
Green Bay (13-3, 7-1 home)

I’m standing by the SAFE PICK I used on the Redskins last week. The final score was misleading, as the Redskins fell apart at the end of the game. Anyone who actually watched the fourth quarter knows that they were in great position to win the game and blew it. My point? The Seahawks are who I thought they were. They can’t run the ball, their secondary is suspect, and their passing game is not nearly as good as the numbers indicate. Did I mention that they were terrible on the road this season? The only hope Seattle has of winning this game is if Green Bay’s young players catch a severe case of playoff jitters. But Favre has been here before, and he will lead his team onto the next round.

My Pick: Green Bay makes quick work of Seattle and moves on to face Dallas
SAFE PICK

Jacksonville (11-5, 5-3 away)
at
New England (16-0, 8-0 home)

The Jaguars almost blew their game with Steelers, but held on, thanks to an apparent blown holding call that everyone from Bill Simmons to Skip Bayless is still complaining about. That being said, I’m not buying The Sports Guy’s oversimplified argument that the Patriots have no trouble with one-dimensional offenses and their secondary is suspect just doesn’t do it for me. Jacksonville had more wins against teams with winning records this season than every team except for New England. Their defense has been solid all year…I’m willing to cut them some slack for having one bad quarter. And as for the fact that the Jags are one-dimensional on offense…they’ve relied on the run for the past three seasons, and no team has figured out how to stop it during that time span. Quarterback David Garrard has significantly improved his game this season. If they had any quality receivers, they would be a match-up nightmare for the Patriots. As it is, if they can get on the board early, they can hang with the Patriots for a while. I’m not saying that Jacksonville can beat New England, but I definitely do not see it being a 42-15 game (as Bill Simmons does).

My Pick: Patriots move on and prepare for a rematch with the Colts
SAFE PICK

San Diego (11-5, 4-4 away)
at
Indianapolis (13-3, 6-2 home)

So…the last time these two teams met, Peyton Manning had his worst game as a professional football player, and still had his team in a position to win before Vinatieri missed an easy field goal. Give me one good reason why I should even consider picking the Chargers. They had trouble with the Titans, for God’s sake! Enough already…we’re done here.

My Pick: Colts by a lot…I think Simmons meant to put that 42-15 score under his pick for this game
SAFE PICK

New York Giants (10-6, 7-1 away)
at
Dallas (13-3, 6-2 home)

It’s funny…I always thought the most basic rule to Bill Simmons’ Playoff Manifesto was to never take a shaky quarterback on the road. How he managed to talk himself into Eli Manning here, I’m not really sure. Yes, he looked okay against Tampa Bay, but he didn’t really do that much. The Giants basically relied on their defense and running game. They’re going to need more than that against the Cowboys, because the Cowboys can put up points with the best of them. Do you really want to take Eli Manning in a shootout? The Cowboys are going to put constant pressure on him, unlike the Bucs, who inexplicably let him sit in the pocket for five seconds on every passing down. Unless Jessica Simpson does an impromptu strip show at halftime, I think the Cowboys will be okay…

My Pick: Romo redeems himself, and Eli orders a ticket for the Pats/Colts game