Like a Rice Krispie Treat!
New England (5-1, 3-0 away)
at
Minnesota (4-2, 2-1 home)
Are the Vikings the league’s most underrated team? Bill Belichick seems to think so…He has been quoted as saying that “he doesn’t know how they [The Vikings] lost to the Bears”, because they clearly outplayed them in their match-up earlier this season. Belichick knows that his team is in for a tough game tonight. The Patriots have relied on their running game for much of the season as Brady has had to become acclimated with a new group of receivers, and tonight they face the top rush defense in the NFL. The Vikings are a smart and disciplined team. They are not going to put up a lot of points but they capitalize on the opportunities that they are given. Brad Johnson may not win games for them by himself, but he rarely turn the ball over, so he won’t lose them for you either. This game certainly has the potential of being an upset in favor of Minnesota. I’m not suggesting that the Patriots will be looking ahead to next week’s match-up with the Colts because I am certain that Belichick will have his team aptly prepared tonight. What I am suggesting is that the Vikings’ defense is very good (in addition to their top ranked run defense, they also have a solid secondary), they will be able to run the ball because they have a great offensive line, and they will take care of the ball; this will keep them in the game until the end. I still see Brady and co. doing just enough to pull it out though…
My Pick: Patriots squeak by the Vikings…
Monday, October 30, 2006
Friday, October 27, 2006
Where Have All The Cowboys Gone?
On Monday Night, Peter King’s greatest wish came true and Tony Romo took over at quarterback for Dallas in the second half after Drew Bledsoe’s inconsistent first half ended with an ugly interception in the end zone when Dallas had a chance to take the lead. But the Tony Romo era in Dallas began just as the Bledsoe era ended, with a poorly thrown interception on his first play. Romo followed that up with two more interceptions and as a result of his miscues, the Giants’ offense capitalized, quickly turning a close game into a blowout. Romo certainly has more mobility than Bledsoe but he does not have as strong an arm and has never played in an actual game against a first-team defense before. Parcells felt that he needed to make a change, and in his defense the Cowboys have been pretty mediocre so far, but the Cowboys’ biggest deficiency is their offensive line. If Bledsoe is given time to throw the ball, he can be very effective. The line has not done that this year against any of the teams they’ve played that have solid pass rushes. So, given the line issues, it does seem to make sense to put a quarterback who has the ability to escape the pass rush into the game. But Romo, to me, looks like a glorified Joey Harrington. His ability to escape the pocket and make plays to move the chains are enticing, but his red-zone decision-making leaves a lot to be desired. In other words, the Cowboys are in exactly the same position that they were with Bledsoe, except with less of a threat for going deep to Glenn or Owens. Maybe I’m wrong about Romo, but I’m not even considering picking the Cowboys to win another game until I see him play at least twice as well as he did against the Giants. So far, he has only made their offense worse.
If I sound a little bitter about this game, it’s because, in a week where I only picked 5 games correctly, losing this pick was the curdled frosting on the moldy cake. But that’s neither here nor there…Let’s move on, shall we?
Last Week: 5-8
(SAFE PICKS: 2-4)
Season: 64-36
(SAFE PICKS: 31-10)
San Francisco (2-4, 0-2 away)
at
Chicago (6-0, 3-0 home)
While the Bears struggled mightily against their last mediocre opponent from the NFC West (Arizona) in their last game (also at home) and should have lost that game, I can’t see them playing that poorly in consecutive games. They had a bye week to work on their offensive shortcomings in their last game and I expect Grossman to rebound well against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Their defense may not be as solid now with the losses in their secondary, but still solid enough for Chicago to beat the 49ers…
My Pick: The Bears wake up from their hibernation
SAFE PICK
Atlanta (4-2, 1-1 away)
at
Cincinnati (4-2, 2-1 home)
Yes, Atlanta’s passing game was excellent last week, but for the second straight home contest, their passing defense was absolutely awful, allowing over 400 passing yards. Playing on the road against a team that has a potentially powerful passing game, and a quarterback who is bound to break out, this could be a recipe for disaster.
My Pick: The Bengals win a shootout
Arizona (1-6, 0-3 away)
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Green Bay (2-4, 0-3 home)
I think it’s safe to say that Arizona has lost all of the confidence that they gained in the first half of their game against the Bears, between their second half meltdown and their loss last Sunday to the lowly and previously winless Raiders. The Packers, on the other hand, are riding high after their shootout win over the Dolphins. Favre looks pretty comfortable throwing the ball and their running game is looking surprisingly solid. They still can’t play defense, but at this point, I’ll take Favre in a shootout…
My Pick: Green Bay finally wins at Lambeau
Houston (2-4, 0-2 away)
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Tennessee (1-5, 0-2 home)
Both the Titans and Texans are bad teams who are improving and could be a factor over the next couple seasons. And both teams looked impressive in their last outings, beating the Redskins and Jaguars respectively. I have no doubt that this will be a close game but I see Andre Johnson being the X-factor. He has had either 100 yards or a touchdown in five of the Texans’ six games. The one game that he didn’t was on the road against the Dallas Cowboys, who have a powerful defensive line and were able to consistently put pressure on Carr. The Titans do not have any pass rush to speak of, so I expect that Carr will find Andre Johnson deep many times during this contest and he will have his best game of the season.
My Pick: Texans win two in a row? Has hell frozen over?
Seattle (4-2, 2-1 away)
at
Kansas City (3-3, 2-1 home)
I’m still fuming about Seattle’s game last week…that was a dirty hit on Hasselbeck (which cost the Seahawks the game and me the pick) and the football gods will punish the Vikings for their transgression. The Seahawks have been left in a perilous position now without either of their offensive leaders. I do have a feeling that Shaun Alexander may be making a surprise appearance on Sunday. He is listed as doubtful and Holmgren has said that he doesn’t expect him to play until next week against the Raiders, but he’s returned to practice so his foot must be healed. If he does play, it could really change the complexity of this game…as it stands with him out though, the Seahawks have a mediocre running back and an unproven quarterback (Seneca Wallace) making his first career start. Not a good combination when you’re playing at Arrowhead…but hold on. The latest reports out of Kansas City indicate that Damon Huard injured his hamstring in practice and likely will not play on Sunday. This hands control of the offense over to rookie Brodie Croyle. It also changes this game from being an obvious Chiefs’ win to a toss-up. I’ll still take Kansas City here, given that they have an elite running back (that I know will play) and that the game is in Arrowhead. I would no longer consider this a SAFE PICK though by any means…
My Pick: The Chiefs win a close match-up of unproven quarterbacks
Baltimore (4-2, 2-1 away)
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New Orleans (5-1, 3-0 home)
Yes, I do agree with ESPN.com that Baltimore is “desperate for a win”…but can they put any points on the board against the Saints? Their offense has been awful this year, and the Saints’ D has been really solid at home. Furthermore, their defense looked like it was finally getting worn out from having to play three quarters of the game last week against Carolina. I mean if they could at least establish a running game, maybe they could take some of the pressure off of their past-his-prime quarterback. But that would involve benching the ineffective Jamal Lewis, who Billick is far too loyal to. I just don’t see them picking up the win here in New Orleans…maybe they’ll surprise me but their offense would have to play above themselves for it to happen.
My Pick: The Desperation Factor can only take you so far…Saints move to 6-1
Tampa Bay (2-4, 0-2 away)
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New York Giants (4-2, 1-1 home)
The Giants are playing some damn good football right now, but I am waiting for the other shoe to drop…anyone who’s followed this team over the past two seasons knows that where there’s an overwhelmingly successful run, there’s bound to be a letdown game close behind. I think that the Buccaneers will take advantage of this opportunity to get back in the playoff hunt. Look for Bruce Gradikowski to torch the Giants’ suspect secondary. Methinks Joey Galloway (in following his feast or famine pattern so far this season) will have a monster game after being shut out last week and the Bucs will pull off another upset.
My Pick: Tampa airs out an upset win on the road
Jacksonville (3-3, 0-3 away)
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Philadelphia (4-3, 2-1 home)
After two straight last second losses, there is no way that Donovan McNabb will let his team lose this game at home. The Jaguars offense was ineffective last week against the Texans and their defense was torched deep by David Carr and Andre Johnson and allowed their running game to get it going for the first time all season. In short, they are a mess right now. And I can’t see them getting their first road win of the season here with either a hobbled Leftwich or rusty Garrard at the helm.
My Pick: Eagles win big at home
SAFE PICK
St. Louis (4-2, 2-1 away)
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San Diego (4-2, 2-0 home)
Between the distraction of Merriman’s positive steroid test, the loss of linebacker Shaun Philips (the team’s sack leader) for the next month and the secondary’s lackluster play for much of last week’s game in Kansas City, I am a but worried about San Diego’s defense right now. I’m sure that Rivers will rebound from his mediocre performance last week and play pretty well against an average Rams’ defensive squad, but I’m not convinced that their defense will be able to shut down the Rams’ high-octane offense. Marc Bulger has played consistently well all season, regardless of the opponent, and I don’t expect that to change on Sunday. I expect this to end up being a higher scoring game than most of you expect it to be…I’ll give the Rams the edge since they lost the last shootout they played in and they deserve redemption.
My Pick: The Rams beat the disheveled Chargers
New York Jets (4-3, 2-1 away)
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Cleveland (1-5, 0-3 home)
I made the unfortunate mistake of picking the Browns last week, and they made me pay. I swear I must have been drunk at the time. Looking at this team, the only things they really have going for them are Charlie Frye and Braylon Edwards. That puts them in the same class as a team like the 49ers…capable of beating other bad teams and having a chance to win against average teams, but having no shot in hell against a team with an elite defense that can stop their offense. That means they have a chance this week, but a very slim one. Chad Pennington has played really well against bad teams this year and I expect that to continue. Giving their offense more balance, Leon Washington has really emerged the past few weeks as a solid running threat (20 carries for 129 yards and 2 TDs last week). I expect him to have another big game against an atrocious Browns’ run defense that is allowing over 144 rushing yards a game.
My Pick: Jets keep beating the teams that they should and stay in the playoff hunt
Indianapolis (6-0, 2-0 away)
at
Denver (5-1, 3-0 home)
The time has come for Jake Plummer to finally cost the Broncos another game. The defense has played so well this year that they have bailed him out for the most part, but he will have to make some plays if the Broncos are going to win this game. The Colts’ offense is going to put some points on the board and the Broncos will have to too if they want to win this game. The pressure is on Plummer. And as I have said many times before, when the pressure’s on him, he usually implodes. The Jay Cutler era may be close at hand…Shanahan can’t continue to let this guy hold his team back from contending for the Super Bowl.
My Pick: Colts pick up the upset…How is it an upset when they are undefeated?? Gotta love Vegas…
SAFE PICK
Pittsburgh (2-4, 0-3 away)
at
Oakland (1-5, 1-2 home)
Well, the Raiders are riding high after their first win of the season and the Steelers just allowed 41 points in a loss to Falcons. Upset city? Uh, not so much…now that the Raiders have picked up a win, I expect them to revert back to their losing ways, regardless of whether or not it is Big Ben or Batch at QB for the Steelers. They were just lucky enough to have caught a Cardinals team that was still reeling from one of the worst collapses in the history of the NFL. I doubt the Raiders win another game all year…
My Pick: Steelers win big in Oakland
SAFE PICK
Dallas (3-3, 1-2 away)
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Carolina (4-3, 2-1 home)
Tony Romo’s first NFL start should be a pretty ugly one. He is facing one of the most ferocious front lines in the game and I expect Julius Peppers and co. to make it a long day for him. And while Dallas’s front line is pretty solid as well, their secondary is a bit suspect. I think that Delhomme and Steve Smith will continue to have success deep and the Panthers will blow out Dallas.
My Pick: Romo moves to 0-2 as the Cowboys’ starter
SAFE PICK
Here’s to hoping that this week treats me better than the last one did…
Check back on Sunday for my Monday Night pick…
If I sound a little bitter about this game, it’s because, in a week where I only picked 5 games correctly, losing this pick was the curdled frosting on the moldy cake. But that’s neither here nor there…Let’s move on, shall we?
Last Week: 5-8
(SAFE PICKS: 2-4)
Season: 64-36
(SAFE PICKS: 31-10)
San Francisco (2-4, 0-2 away)
at
Chicago (6-0, 3-0 home)
While the Bears struggled mightily against their last mediocre opponent from the NFC West (Arizona) in their last game (also at home) and should have lost that game, I can’t see them playing that poorly in consecutive games. They had a bye week to work on their offensive shortcomings in their last game and I expect Grossman to rebound well against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Their defense may not be as solid now with the losses in their secondary, but still solid enough for Chicago to beat the 49ers…
My Pick: The Bears wake up from their hibernation
SAFE PICK
Atlanta (4-2, 1-1 away)
at
Cincinnati (4-2, 2-1 home)
Yes, Atlanta’s passing game was excellent last week, but for the second straight home contest, their passing defense was absolutely awful, allowing over 400 passing yards. Playing on the road against a team that has a potentially powerful passing game, and a quarterback who is bound to break out, this could be a recipe for disaster.
My Pick: The Bengals win a shootout
Arizona (1-6, 0-3 away)
at
Green Bay (2-4, 0-3 home)
I think it’s safe to say that Arizona has lost all of the confidence that they gained in the first half of their game against the Bears, between their second half meltdown and their loss last Sunday to the lowly and previously winless Raiders. The Packers, on the other hand, are riding high after their shootout win over the Dolphins. Favre looks pretty comfortable throwing the ball and their running game is looking surprisingly solid. They still can’t play defense, but at this point, I’ll take Favre in a shootout…
My Pick: Green Bay finally wins at Lambeau
Houston (2-4, 0-2 away)
at
Tennessee (1-5, 0-2 home)
Both the Titans and Texans are bad teams who are improving and could be a factor over the next couple seasons. And both teams looked impressive in their last outings, beating the Redskins and Jaguars respectively. I have no doubt that this will be a close game but I see Andre Johnson being the X-factor. He has had either 100 yards or a touchdown in five of the Texans’ six games. The one game that he didn’t was on the road against the Dallas Cowboys, who have a powerful defensive line and were able to consistently put pressure on Carr. The Titans do not have any pass rush to speak of, so I expect that Carr will find Andre Johnson deep many times during this contest and he will have his best game of the season.
My Pick: Texans win two in a row? Has hell frozen over?
Seattle (4-2, 2-1 away)
at
Kansas City (3-3, 2-1 home)
I’m still fuming about Seattle’s game last week…that was a dirty hit on Hasselbeck (which cost the Seahawks the game and me the pick) and the football gods will punish the Vikings for their transgression. The Seahawks have been left in a perilous position now without either of their offensive leaders. I do have a feeling that Shaun Alexander may be making a surprise appearance on Sunday. He is listed as doubtful and Holmgren has said that he doesn’t expect him to play until next week against the Raiders, but he’s returned to practice so his foot must be healed. If he does play, it could really change the complexity of this game…as it stands with him out though, the Seahawks have a mediocre running back and an unproven quarterback (Seneca Wallace) making his first career start. Not a good combination when you’re playing at Arrowhead…but hold on. The latest reports out of Kansas City indicate that Damon Huard injured his hamstring in practice and likely will not play on Sunday. This hands control of the offense over to rookie Brodie Croyle. It also changes this game from being an obvious Chiefs’ win to a toss-up. I’ll still take Kansas City here, given that they have an elite running back (that I know will play) and that the game is in Arrowhead. I would no longer consider this a SAFE PICK though by any means…
My Pick: The Chiefs win a close match-up of unproven quarterbacks
Baltimore (4-2, 2-1 away)
at
New Orleans (5-1, 3-0 home)
Yes, I do agree with ESPN.com that Baltimore is “desperate for a win”…but can they put any points on the board against the Saints? Their offense has been awful this year, and the Saints’ D has been really solid at home. Furthermore, their defense looked like it was finally getting worn out from having to play three quarters of the game last week against Carolina. I mean if they could at least establish a running game, maybe they could take some of the pressure off of their past-his-prime quarterback. But that would involve benching the ineffective Jamal Lewis, who Billick is far too loyal to. I just don’t see them picking up the win here in New Orleans…maybe they’ll surprise me but their offense would have to play above themselves for it to happen.
My Pick: The Desperation Factor can only take you so far…Saints move to 6-1
Tampa Bay (2-4, 0-2 away)
at
New York Giants (4-2, 1-1 home)
The Giants are playing some damn good football right now, but I am waiting for the other shoe to drop…anyone who’s followed this team over the past two seasons knows that where there’s an overwhelmingly successful run, there’s bound to be a letdown game close behind. I think that the Buccaneers will take advantage of this opportunity to get back in the playoff hunt. Look for Bruce Gradikowski to torch the Giants’ suspect secondary. Methinks Joey Galloway (in following his feast or famine pattern so far this season) will have a monster game after being shut out last week and the Bucs will pull off another upset.
My Pick: Tampa airs out an upset win on the road
Jacksonville (3-3, 0-3 away)
at
Philadelphia (4-3, 2-1 home)
After two straight last second losses, there is no way that Donovan McNabb will let his team lose this game at home. The Jaguars offense was ineffective last week against the Texans and their defense was torched deep by David Carr and Andre Johnson and allowed their running game to get it going for the first time all season. In short, they are a mess right now. And I can’t see them getting their first road win of the season here with either a hobbled Leftwich or rusty Garrard at the helm.
My Pick: Eagles win big at home
SAFE PICK
St. Louis (4-2, 2-1 away)
at
San Diego (4-2, 2-0 home)
Between the distraction of Merriman’s positive steroid test, the loss of linebacker Shaun Philips (the team’s sack leader) for the next month and the secondary’s lackluster play for much of last week’s game in Kansas City, I am a but worried about San Diego’s defense right now. I’m sure that Rivers will rebound from his mediocre performance last week and play pretty well against an average Rams’ defensive squad, but I’m not convinced that their defense will be able to shut down the Rams’ high-octane offense. Marc Bulger has played consistently well all season, regardless of the opponent, and I don’t expect that to change on Sunday. I expect this to end up being a higher scoring game than most of you expect it to be…I’ll give the Rams the edge since they lost the last shootout they played in and they deserve redemption.
My Pick: The Rams beat the disheveled Chargers
New York Jets (4-3, 2-1 away)
at
Cleveland (1-5, 0-3 home)
I made the unfortunate mistake of picking the Browns last week, and they made me pay. I swear I must have been drunk at the time. Looking at this team, the only things they really have going for them are Charlie Frye and Braylon Edwards. That puts them in the same class as a team like the 49ers…capable of beating other bad teams and having a chance to win against average teams, but having no shot in hell against a team with an elite defense that can stop their offense. That means they have a chance this week, but a very slim one. Chad Pennington has played really well against bad teams this year and I expect that to continue. Giving their offense more balance, Leon Washington has really emerged the past few weeks as a solid running threat (20 carries for 129 yards and 2 TDs last week). I expect him to have another big game against an atrocious Browns’ run defense that is allowing over 144 rushing yards a game.
My Pick: Jets keep beating the teams that they should and stay in the playoff hunt
Indianapolis (6-0, 2-0 away)
at
Denver (5-1, 3-0 home)
The time has come for Jake Plummer to finally cost the Broncos another game. The defense has played so well this year that they have bailed him out for the most part, but he will have to make some plays if the Broncos are going to win this game. The Colts’ offense is going to put some points on the board and the Broncos will have to too if they want to win this game. The pressure is on Plummer. And as I have said many times before, when the pressure’s on him, he usually implodes. The Jay Cutler era may be close at hand…Shanahan can’t continue to let this guy hold his team back from contending for the Super Bowl.
My Pick: Colts pick up the upset…How is it an upset when they are undefeated?? Gotta love Vegas…
SAFE PICK
Pittsburgh (2-4, 0-3 away)
at
Oakland (1-5, 1-2 home)
Well, the Raiders are riding high after their first win of the season and the Steelers just allowed 41 points in a loss to Falcons. Upset city? Uh, not so much…now that the Raiders have picked up a win, I expect them to revert back to their losing ways, regardless of whether or not it is Big Ben or Batch at QB for the Steelers. They were just lucky enough to have caught a Cardinals team that was still reeling from one of the worst collapses in the history of the NFL. I doubt the Raiders win another game all year…
My Pick: Steelers win big in Oakland
SAFE PICK
Dallas (3-3, 1-2 away)
at
Carolina (4-3, 2-1 home)
Tony Romo’s first NFL start should be a pretty ugly one. He is facing one of the most ferocious front lines in the game and I expect Julius Peppers and co. to make it a long day for him. And while Dallas’s front line is pretty solid as well, their secondary is a bit suspect. I think that Delhomme and Steve Smith will continue to have success deep and the Panthers will blow out Dallas.
My Pick: Romo moves to 0-2 as the Cowboys’ starter
SAFE PICK
Here’s to hoping that this week treats me better than the last one did…
Check back on Sunday for my Monday Night pick…
Monday, October 23, 2006
Rich Eisen has stopped returning my calls...
Ok, so I’m not quite ready to quit my day job…this week has not treated me very kindly so far. After a promising start, I proceeded to pick all of the 4:15 games incorrectly, leaving me at an abysmal 5-7 for the week. I am hoping to get back on track tonight but it is a pretty tough match-up…
New York Giants (3-2, 2-1 away)
at
Dallas (3-2, 2-0 home)
I think that the Giants have the momentum going into this game after a huge comeback win at Atlanta last week. Yes, I know, last week was Owens’ coming out party right? Let’s be serious here…there is no one or even two Texans defensive backs who have a prayer at guarding any decent NFL receiver. I’m sure that game helped to boost Dallas’s confidence but they haven’t proved anything to me yet. That being said, it seems that despite the success that the Giants have had over the last two seasons, they are extremely inconsistent. It seems like every time that they pick up a big win, they follow it up with a dud game the next week. I have been wavering back and forth on this pick all week…I really do think that the Giants’ offense is hitting its stride. But I learned my lesson last year…and I relearned it again this year when the Giants got blown out by Seattle a week after a huge comeback win over the Eagles. There is no way I can pick the Giants here. I still think that it could be a close game but, given their recent history, I trust the Giants here about as far as I can throw them. Owens will probably have another solid game, Glenn will have a big game, and with some better blocking, Drew Bledsoe will play well enough against the Giants’ suspect secondary to shut up all of those stupid analysts screaming for Tony Romo…
My Pick: The Giants play poorly after their big win last week and the Cowboys capitalize
New York Giants (3-2, 2-1 away)
at
Dallas (3-2, 2-0 home)
I think that the Giants have the momentum going into this game after a huge comeback win at Atlanta last week. Yes, I know, last week was Owens’ coming out party right? Let’s be serious here…there is no one or even two Texans defensive backs who have a prayer at guarding any decent NFL receiver. I’m sure that game helped to boost Dallas’s confidence but they haven’t proved anything to me yet. That being said, it seems that despite the success that the Giants have had over the last two seasons, they are extremely inconsistent. It seems like every time that they pick up a big win, they follow it up with a dud game the next week. I have been wavering back and forth on this pick all week…I really do think that the Giants’ offense is hitting its stride. But I learned my lesson last year…and I relearned it again this year when the Giants got blown out by Seattle a week after a huge comeback win over the Eagles. There is no way I can pick the Giants here. I still think that it could be a close game but, given their recent history, I trust the Giants here about as far as I can throw them. Owens will probably have another solid game, Glenn will have a big game, and with some better blocking, Drew Bledsoe will play well enough against the Giants’ suspect secondary to shut up all of those stupid analysts screaming for Tony Romo…
My Pick: The Giants play poorly after their big win last week and the Cowboys capitalize
Saturday, October 21, 2006
From Monotony to Madness...
Parity purists, eat you heart out. After a week in which every favored team won, all hell broke out last week. Six underdogs won, including three teams (the Buccaneers, Lions and Titans) that were previously winless. To cap it all off, Arizona nearly pulled off an improbable upset of the Bears on Monday night before blowing a 23-7 second-half lead without allowing an offensive touchdown. Pigskin Pandemonium at its finest. So, what’s in store for this week? More insanity? A return to normalcy? Read on and all will be revealed…
Last Week: 9-4
(SAFE PICKS: 5-1)
Season: 59-28
(SAFE PICKS: 29-6)
Pittsburgh (2-3, 0-2 away)
at
Atlanta (3-2, 2-1 home)
Look out, the Steelers are back! Big Ben picked the solid K.C. secondary apart (16 of 19 for 238 yards and 2 TDs, no INTs) and Willie Parker tore things up on the ground (21 rushes for 109 yards). Meanwhile Atlanta allowed Tiki Barber to run at will (26 rushes for 185 yards) and got blown out at home by the Giants last week. On the other side of the spectrum, the Steelers’ vaunted run defense held stud running back Larry Johnson to 26 yards on 15 carries. All of this spells big trouble for Michael Vick and the run-happy, pass-sloppy Falcons…
My Pick: Pittsburgh Steels the show from Atlanta
SAFE PICK
New England (4-1, 2-0 away)
at
Buffalo (2-4, 1-1 home)
Sure, Buffalo is at home, and they did play the Pats pretty close in the season opener…but they lost to the %$@# Lions last week! If they can’t stop Jon Kitna and Kevin Jones, how can you like their chances against Brady, Dillon and Maroney? The Bills are reeling and New England is rolling…In other words, I think that this game could get ugly…
My Pick: Patriots win easily on the road
SAFE PICK
Carolina (4-2, 2-1 away)
at
Cincinnati (3-2, 1-1 home)
The Bengals have been embarrassed in each of their last two games, first being blown out at home by the Patriots and then, last week, losing to the previously winless Buccaneers. There’s no doubt in my mind that this team is better than they have played the last two weeks. I think that Chad Johnson’s comments during the week are reflective of the team’s attitude right now: They know that they need to be more aggressive on offense and they know that they can beat the Panthers. The Panthers, although they are undefeated since Steve Smith’s return from a hamstring injury, are not perfect. Their secondary can be beaten (as evidenced by much-maligned backup QB Kyle Boller throwing three TD passes against them last week) and I think that the Bengals have the weapons, in Johnson and Houshmandzadeh, to exploit what I see to be Carolina’s most glaring weakness. Delhomme and Smith will likely return the favor against a Bengals’ pass defense that while it forces a lot of turnovers, also gives up a lot of big plays. I see this being a shootout, but I think that Carson Palmer will be up to the task. He needs to have a statement game and prove to the league that he’s healthy and dangerous again, and I think that this will be it.
My Pick: Palmer leads the Bengals to their highest scoring performance of the season and a must-needed win
San Diego (4-1, 2-1 away)
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Kansas City (2-3, 1-1 home)
Yeah, the Chiefs got their butts handed to them last week in Pittsburgh…but I can assure you that won’t happen again this week. Coming off a neck injury, Larry Johnson was tentative last week and really never got it going against a great Steelers’ rush defense. This week he is facing nearly as tough a task against a Chargers squad that is ranked second in the AFC in rush defense. Still, I expect him to come up with a much better game than last week as I think he’s shaken off the jitters. Damon Huard had an unimpressive game last week in Pittsburgh, but much of that was because the Chiefs were too conservative, never one trying to throw the ball down the field in the first half. Word out of Kansas City is that they are not making that mistake again…for better or worse, anything in their playbook is fair game this week. The real key to this game is how the Chiefs’ offensive line plays. If they allow Damon Huard time in the pocket to throw the ball, I really think that Tony Gonzalez can capitalize with some big plays in the middle of the field. The Chargers have a spectacular defense, but their one weakness, other than their head coach, is their safeties, Terrance Kiel and Marlon McCree. The key to beating the Chargers is exploiting this weakness and I think that Tony Gonzalez is just the kind of weapon to do so. I also think that they will try to look for Kennison deep every once in awhile to switch things up. The Chiefs will also benefit from the return of Dante Hall this week, one of the most dangerous returners in the game. And their pass defense, other than last week against the Steelers, has been much improved this year. I am discounting that game, because we all knew that Pittsburgh and Big Ben were due for a breakout game. I think that they will be able to hold their own against the Chargers’ passing game. But will they be able to contain a running duo the likes of which have never been seen (they call themselves Tenacious T)? Well, I think that Turner and Tomlinson will be able to pick up some yards on the ground, but I think that the combination of a solid defensive performance by the secondary, some big special teams plays from Hall and a passing attack featuring Gonzalez will lift the Chiefs to the upset victory at home. Remember too that this game is in Arrowhead…one of the toughest places to play in all of football.
My Pick: Chiefs upset the Chargers
Green Bay (1-4, 1-1 away)
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Miami (1-5, 1-1 home)
Really Really Ridiculously Misleading Stat of the Week: Zach Thomas leads the league in tackles with 60. Anyone who has watched Miami play at all this year can see that Thomas has lost a step and has been prone to mistakes. ESPN wants me to believe that the Dolphins’ defense will respond to his comments suggesting that they should play a high school football team so they can get a win; personally, I don’t think it will make a difference. Their defense looks washed up and I just don’t see any passion in their play. And I haven’t even started with their offense…
That’s because this week Harrington should have decent numbers against a Packers defense that couldn’t stop my IM football team from scoring (did I mention that we were the only team in our league not to make the playoffs?). If Favre has anything left though, he will find a way to win against a 1-5 team led by Joey Harrington…Miami’s degraded defense will not be much of a factor.
My Pick: Packers win but Zach Thomas continues to pile up meaningless tackles
Detroit (1-5, 0-3 away)
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New York Jets (3-3, 1-2 home)
The Lions picked up their first win of the year last week…against the Bills. Am I supposed to be impressed? I really blame Buffalo’s overrated defense in that one…127 rushing yards from Kevin Jones? I mean, really…the Bills should be embarrassed right now. Speaking of Kevin Jones…I think he will come back down to earth in this game despite the fact that the Jets are in the middle of the pack as far as rushing defenses go. He’s just not that good a back and he’s running behind a patchwork offensive line. Roy Williams will probably have a solid game and the Lions may score a touchdown or two…but Chad Pennington will tear Detroit’s defense apart. Look for huge games from Coles and Crotchery and a Jets win.
My Pick: Jets move above .500
SAFE PICK
Philadelphia (4-2, 2-1 away)
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Tampa Bay (1-4, 1-2 home)
The Buccaneers gutted out their first win of the season at home against the Bengals last week, but this week they face an even tougher task. The Eagles are the class of the NFC and coming off of a last-second loss to New Orleans last week, they are going to come out strong. Tampa’s defense has been inconsistent all year while the Eagles’ offense has been pretty damn consistent, thanks to the reliable play of my choice for first-half MVP, Donovan McNabb. I expect huge games out of him and Westbrook and a big win for the Eagles.
My Pick: Eagles rebound with a big win
SAFE PICK
Jacksonville (3-2, 0-2 away)
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Houston (1-4, 1-2 home)
I don’t care whether it’s Byron Leftwich, (who’s questionable with an ankle injury) or David Garrard (who’s nearly as good as Leftwich) at quarterback for the Jags; it won’t matter. Maurice Drew-Jones and Fred Taylor are going to run all over the field against the Texans, who are allowing over 145 rushing yards per game. I’m sure the passing game will make some contributions as well, but the running game will be more than enough to lift the Jaguars to victory on Sunday.
My Pick: Jaguars embarrass the Texans in Houston despite Leftwich’s injury
SAFE PICK
Denver (4-1, 1-1 away)
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Cleveland (1-4, 0-2 home)
I know the stats. The Broncos have only allowed one touchdown all year. The Browns’ offense is abysmal (11th in the AFC in passing and just ahead of the last ranked Texans in rushing). But I have a feeling this is going to be a close game. You can’t keep winning, like the Broncos have been, by sitting on the ball for half of the game. Eventually you need to make some plays in the passing game. Shannahan is showing no confidence in Jake Plummer right now, not that I blame him. But my question is: If you don’t trust your quarterback and you’ve killed his confidence, why do you continue to start him every week? If Plummer struggles on Sunday against Cleveland’s 9th ranked (AFC) pass defense, which I expect him to, we may see a quarterback change sometime over the next couple weeks. You can’t continue to waste the efforts of their defense like this and their offensive players, specifically Javon Walker, are miffed that they aren’t playing more aggressively and are limited by a mediocre quarterback. You have to think too that Rueben Droughns will be motivated to play well in this game against his former team. I’m not expecting an outstanding game from him, but something more than the 3.3 yards a carry he’s averaged so far this season. And Frye will find Braylon Edwards for a couple big gains. The Denver D can’t keep playing at this level forever…especially with no support from their offense. Tatum Bell will have a decent game, but the Broncos’ stagnant passing game will keep the game close and the Browns will have a shot at the upset here…
My Pick: The Broncos are finally punished for Plummer’s futility
Washington (2-4, 1-2 away)
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Indianapolis (5-0, 3-0 home)
I’m not sure if I have ever seen a shakier 5-0 team than this year’s Colts. While their pass defense is pretty solid, their run defense has been truly terrible, ranked last in the NFL with 166.8 rushing yards allowed per game. Trust me, Clinton Portis is salivating at the prospect of playing against them on Sunday. The Redskins have gotten away from the run during the last couple weeks, which other than their inconsistent defensive performances, has been the biggest factor in their struggles. As Clinton Portis goes, so do the ‘skins: Portis has had under 20 carries and 76 yards or less in all of their losses this year; in their only quality win, against the Jaguars, he had his only 100 yard game of the season and 26 carries. Last season, they won their last five games of the season; Portis had 23 carries or more and over 100 yards in all of them. Gibbs realizes that they need to get back to running the ball and they will run a lot on Sunday and run successfully. The Colts are too shaky a team to be 6-0 and the ‘skins are desperate right now…the perfect recipe for an upset.
My Pick: Washington rides Portis to an upset of Indy
Arizona (1-5, 0-2 away)
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Oakland (0-5, 0-2 home)
My initial feeling after the Monday night debacle was that the Cardinals would be too demoralized to go to Oakland and play well. But I really like Matt Leinart’s attitude. He took the loss very well despite the fact that he knows that he played well enough to win the game and it was taken away from him by awful coaching. He didn’t point any fingers even though some of his teammates made some egregious errors that contributed to the loss (*cough* Edgerrin James and the offensive line). He looks like a veteran leader and I’m sure that he will bounce back just fine. It will help, of course, to be playing the Raiders who are probably the worst NFL team that I have ever seen. I expect Leinart, Boldin and even James to have big games and to take out their frustrations on a team that doesn’t have the personnel to fight back.
Really Really Ridiculously Misleading Stat of the Week 2: The Raiders have allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL. I guess that’s what happens when you get blown out so badly that teams just run for half the game to kill the clock.
My Pick: Cardinals bounce back with a big win in Oakland
Minnesota (3-2, 1-1 away)
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Seattle (4-1, 2-0 home)
I could go on a long-winded rant explaining how the Seahawks have a gazillion good WRs and that their passing attack will probably be the most dangerous in the league once Shaun Alexander comes back and they actually have a running game. I could also tell you that Minnesota’s defense, while solid, will not be able to contain Seattle’s receivers…and that while the Rams were able to exploit the Seahawks’ secondary, the Vikings don’t have the weapons to do so. But really, the most important factor to consider here is this: Remember how I referred to Arrowhead as “one of the toughest places to play in all of football”? Well, Qwest Field IS the toughest place to play in all of football. Seattle is 2-0 at home this year, and they were undefeated there a year ago.
My Pick: Seahawks win easily at home
SAFE PICK
And that’s all she wrote…until my Monday Night pick…
Last Week: 9-4
(SAFE PICKS: 5-1)
Season: 59-28
(SAFE PICKS: 29-6)
Pittsburgh (2-3, 0-2 away)
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Atlanta (3-2, 2-1 home)
Look out, the Steelers are back! Big Ben picked the solid K.C. secondary apart (16 of 19 for 238 yards and 2 TDs, no INTs) and Willie Parker tore things up on the ground (21 rushes for 109 yards). Meanwhile Atlanta allowed Tiki Barber to run at will (26 rushes for 185 yards) and got blown out at home by the Giants last week. On the other side of the spectrum, the Steelers’ vaunted run defense held stud running back Larry Johnson to 26 yards on 15 carries. All of this spells big trouble for Michael Vick and the run-happy, pass-sloppy Falcons…
My Pick: Pittsburgh Steels the show from Atlanta
SAFE PICK
New England (4-1, 2-0 away)
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Buffalo (2-4, 1-1 home)
Sure, Buffalo is at home, and they did play the Pats pretty close in the season opener…but they lost to the %$@# Lions last week! If they can’t stop Jon Kitna and Kevin Jones, how can you like their chances against Brady, Dillon and Maroney? The Bills are reeling and New England is rolling…In other words, I think that this game could get ugly…
My Pick: Patriots win easily on the road
SAFE PICK
Carolina (4-2, 2-1 away)
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Cincinnati (3-2, 1-1 home)
The Bengals have been embarrassed in each of their last two games, first being blown out at home by the Patriots and then, last week, losing to the previously winless Buccaneers. There’s no doubt in my mind that this team is better than they have played the last two weeks. I think that Chad Johnson’s comments during the week are reflective of the team’s attitude right now: They know that they need to be more aggressive on offense and they know that they can beat the Panthers. The Panthers, although they are undefeated since Steve Smith’s return from a hamstring injury, are not perfect. Their secondary can be beaten (as evidenced by much-maligned backup QB Kyle Boller throwing three TD passes against them last week) and I think that the Bengals have the weapons, in Johnson and Houshmandzadeh, to exploit what I see to be Carolina’s most glaring weakness. Delhomme and Smith will likely return the favor against a Bengals’ pass defense that while it forces a lot of turnovers, also gives up a lot of big plays. I see this being a shootout, but I think that Carson Palmer will be up to the task. He needs to have a statement game and prove to the league that he’s healthy and dangerous again, and I think that this will be it.
My Pick: Palmer leads the Bengals to their highest scoring performance of the season and a must-needed win
San Diego (4-1, 2-1 away)
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Kansas City (2-3, 1-1 home)
Yeah, the Chiefs got their butts handed to them last week in Pittsburgh…but I can assure you that won’t happen again this week. Coming off a neck injury, Larry Johnson was tentative last week and really never got it going against a great Steelers’ rush defense. This week he is facing nearly as tough a task against a Chargers squad that is ranked second in the AFC in rush defense. Still, I expect him to come up with a much better game than last week as I think he’s shaken off the jitters. Damon Huard had an unimpressive game last week in Pittsburgh, but much of that was because the Chiefs were too conservative, never one trying to throw the ball down the field in the first half. Word out of Kansas City is that they are not making that mistake again…for better or worse, anything in their playbook is fair game this week. The real key to this game is how the Chiefs’ offensive line plays. If they allow Damon Huard time in the pocket to throw the ball, I really think that Tony Gonzalez can capitalize with some big plays in the middle of the field. The Chargers have a spectacular defense, but their one weakness, other than their head coach, is their safeties, Terrance Kiel and Marlon McCree. The key to beating the Chargers is exploiting this weakness and I think that Tony Gonzalez is just the kind of weapon to do so. I also think that they will try to look for Kennison deep every once in awhile to switch things up. The Chiefs will also benefit from the return of Dante Hall this week, one of the most dangerous returners in the game. And their pass defense, other than last week against the Steelers, has been much improved this year. I am discounting that game, because we all knew that Pittsburgh and Big Ben were due for a breakout game. I think that they will be able to hold their own against the Chargers’ passing game. But will they be able to contain a running duo the likes of which have never been seen (they call themselves Tenacious T)? Well, I think that Turner and Tomlinson will be able to pick up some yards on the ground, but I think that the combination of a solid defensive performance by the secondary, some big special teams plays from Hall and a passing attack featuring Gonzalez will lift the Chiefs to the upset victory at home. Remember too that this game is in Arrowhead…one of the toughest places to play in all of football.
My Pick: Chiefs upset the Chargers
Green Bay (1-4, 1-1 away)
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Miami (1-5, 1-1 home)
Really Really Ridiculously Misleading Stat of the Week: Zach Thomas leads the league in tackles with 60. Anyone who has watched Miami play at all this year can see that Thomas has lost a step and has been prone to mistakes. ESPN wants me to believe that the Dolphins’ defense will respond to his comments suggesting that they should play a high school football team so they can get a win; personally, I don’t think it will make a difference. Their defense looks washed up and I just don’t see any passion in their play. And I haven’t even started with their offense…
That’s because this week Harrington should have decent numbers against a Packers defense that couldn’t stop my IM football team from scoring (did I mention that we were the only team in our league not to make the playoffs?). If Favre has anything left though, he will find a way to win against a 1-5 team led by Joey Harrington…Miami’s degraded defense will not be much of a factor.
My Pick: Packers win but Zach Thomas continues to pile up meaningless tackles
Detroit (1-5, 0-3 away)
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New York Jets (3-3, 1-2 home)
The Lions picked up their first win of the year last week…against the Bills. Am I supposed to be impressed? I really blame Buffalo’s overrated defense in that one…127 rushing yards from Kevin Jones? I mean, really…the Bills should be embarrassed right now. Speaking of Kevin Jones…I think he will come back down to earth in this game despite the fact that the Jets are in the middle of the pack as far as rushing defenses go. He’s just not that good a back and he’s running behind a patchwork offensive line. Roy Williams will probably have a solid game and the Lions may score a touchdown or two…but Chad Pennington will tear Detroit’s defense apart. Look for huge games from Coles and Crotchery and a Jets win.
My Pick: Jets move above .500
SAFE PICK
Philadelphia (4-2, 2-1 away)
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Tampa Bay (1-4, 1-2 home)
The Buccaneers gutted out their first win of the season at home against the Bengals last week, but this week they face an even tougher task. The Eagles are the class of the NFC and coming off of a last-second loss to New Orleans last week, they are going to come out strong. Tampa’s defense has been inconsistent all year while the Eagles’ offense has been pretty damn consistent, thanks to the reliable play of my choice for first-half MVP, Donovan McNabb. I expect huge games out of him and Westbrook and a big win for the Eagles.
My Pick: Eagles rebound with a big win
SAFE PICK
Jacksonville (3-2, 0-2 away)
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Houston (1-4, 1-2 home)
I don’t care whether it’s Byron Leftwich, (who’s questionable with an ankle injury) or David Garrard (who’s nearly as good as Leftwich) at quarterback for the Jags; it won’t matter. Maurice Drew-Jones and Fred Taylor are going to run all over the field against the Texans, who are allowing over 145 rushing yards per game. I’m sure the passing game will make some contributions as well, but the running game will be more than enough to lift the Jaguars to victory on Sunday.
My Pick: Jaguars embarrass the Texans in Houston despite Leftwich’s injury
SAFE PICK
Denver (4-1, 1-1 away)
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Cleveland (1-4, 0-2 home)
I know the stats. The Broncos have only allowed one touchdown all year. The Browns’ offense is abysmal (11th in the AFC in passing and just ahead of the last ranked Texans in rushing). But I have a feeling this is going to be a close game. You can’t keep winning, like the Broncos have been, by sitting on the ball for half of the game. Eventually you need to make some plays in the passing game. Shannahan is showing no confidence in Jake Plummer right now, not that I blame him. But my question is: If you don’t trust your quarterback and you’ve killed his confidence, why do you continue to start him every week? If Plummer struggles on Sunday against Cleveland’s 9th ranked (AFC) pass defense, which I expect him to, we may see a quarterback change sometime over the next couple weeks. You can’t continue to waste the efforts of their defense like this and their offensive players, specifically Javon Walker, are miffed that they aren’t playing more aggressively and are limited by a mediocre quarterback. You have to think too that Rueben Droughns will be motivated to play well in this game against his former team. I’m not expecting an outstanding game from him, but something more than the 3.3 yards a carry he’s averaged so far this season. And Frye will find Braylon Edwards for a couple big gains. The Denver D can’t keep playing at this level forever…especially with no support from their offense. Tatum Bell will have a decent game, but the Broncos’ stagnant passing game will keep the game close and the Browns will have a shot at the upset here…
My Pick: The Broncos are finally punished for Plummer’s futility
Washington (2-4, 1-2 away)
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Indianapolis (5-0, 3-0 home)
I’m not sure if I have ever seen a shakier 5-0 team than this year’s Colts. While their pass defense is pretty solid, their run defense has been truly terrible, ranked last in the NFL with 166.8 rushing yards allowed per game. Trust me, Clinton Portis is salivating at the prospect of playing against them on Sunday. The Redskins have gotten away from the run during the last couple weeks, which other than their inconsistent defensive performances, has been the biggest factor in their struggles. As Clinton Portis goes, so do the ‘skins: Portis has had under 20 carries and 76 yards or less in all of their losses this year; in their only quality win, against the Jaguars, he had his only 100 yard game of the season and 26 carries. Last season, they won their last five games of the season; Portis had 23 carries or more and over 100 yards in all of them. Gibbs realizes that they need to get back to running the ball and they will run a lot on Sunday and run successfully. The Colts are too shaky a team to be 6-0 and the ‘skins are desperate right now…the perfect recipe for an upset.
My Pick: Washington rides Portis to an upset of Indy
Arizona (1-5, 0-2 away)
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Oakland (0-5, 0-2 home)
My initial feeling after the Monday night debacle was that the Cardinals would be too demoralized to go to Oakland and play well. But I really like Matt Leinart’s attitude. He took the loss very well despite the fact that he knows that he played well enough to win the game and it was taken away from him by awful coaching. He didn’t point any fingers even though some of his teammates made some egregious errors that contributed to the loss (*cough* Edgerrin James and the offensive line). He looks like a veteran leader and I’m sure that he will bounce back just fine. It will help, of course, to be playing the Raiders who are probably the worst NFL team that I have ever seen. I expect Leinart, Boldin and even James to have big games and to take out their frustrations on a team that doesn’t have the personnel to fight back.
Really Really Ridiculously Misleading Stat of the Week 2: The Raiders have allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL. I guess that’s what happens when you get blown out so badly that teams just run for half the game to kill the clock.
My Pick: Cardinals bounce back with a big win in Oakland
Minnesota (3-2, 1-1 away)
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Seattle (4-1, 2-0 home)
I could go on a long-winded rant explaining how the Seahawks have a gazillion good WRs and that their passing attack will probably be the most dangerous in the league once Shaun Alexander comes back and they actually have a running game. I could also tell you that Minnesota’s defense, while solid, will not be able to contain Seattle’s receivers…and that while the Rams were able to exploit the Seahawks’ secondary, the Vikings don’t have the weapons to do so. But really, the most important factor to consider here is this: Remember how I referred to Arrowhead as “one of the toughest places to play in all of football”? Well, Qwest Field IS the toughest place to play in all of football. Seattle is 2-0 at home this year, and they were undefeated there a year ago.
My Pick: Seahawks win easily at home
SAFE PICK
And that’s all she wrote…until my Monday Night pick…
Saturday, October 14, 2006
Ready, Break!
As I am on break, and at home visiting my family for the weekend, I don’t have much time, so my analysis may not be as detailed as usual. Please bear with me…
Last Week: 10-4
(SAFE PICKS: 5-0)
Season: 50-24
(SAFE PICKS: 24-5)
New York Giants (2-2, 1-1 away)
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Atlanta (3-1, 2-0 home)
While I do think that last week’s superb defensive showing against the Redskins may have been just an aberration brought on more by desperation than anything else, I don’t really see the Falcons capitalizing on what I see to be the real weak point of the Giants’ defense: their secondary. Let’s face it, Vick is not much of a passer and probably never will be. And this year the Falcons have decided to focus completely on running the ball. I think that the Giants will be able to hold their own against the Falcons’ rushing attack, and I think that Tiki Barber will build off of his success last week and have another solid game. The Falcons’ rush defense has been far too inconsistent this year (just as it was last year), leading me to believe that they are going to get burned for some huge plays if they play a talented back.
My Pick: Giants upset Atlanta
Buffalo (2-3, 1-2 away)
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Detroit (0-5, 0-2 home)
At first glance, this looks like a great opportunity for the Lions to pick up their first win. But thinking about it a little more, I realized that the Lions have been blown out by all of the teams with good defenses that they have played and have kept things close against the teams with awful defenses. I still think (despite the way they were manhandled by the Bears last week) that Buffalo’s defense is pretty solid. And let’s be honest, Detroit’s defense is pretty bad. I would be willing to disregard all of this, if I felt that the Lions were a desperate team, but I get the vibe that the majority of these guys just don’t care. I hate picking a team quarterbacked by J.P. Losman to win, but it looks I am forced to here…
My Pick: The Bills keep the Lions winless
Philadelphia (4-1, 2-0 away)
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New Orleans (4-1, 2-0 home)
The Eagles seem to be on the top of their game right now, but I expect there to be a bit of a letdown after their huge win against Dallas last week. I also think that the Saints, playing in the Super Dome, are a pretty tough team to beat. It’s going to be a close game, but my gut tells me that the Saints will pull it off.
My Pick: Saints pick up a huge a win at home
Tennessee (0-5, 0-3 away)
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Washington (2-3, 1-1 home)
The Redskins lost in embarrassing fashion against the Giants last week…rest assured, they will take out their frustrations on the Titans. Tennessee played a close game against the Colts last week, but let’s be honest, it was only because Indianapolis was looking ahead, assuming that the victory would be handed to them. Bottom line: the ‘skins need this game, they’re playing at home and they will win easily.
My Pick: ‘skins win big
SAFE PICK
Miami (1-4, 0-3 away)
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New York Jets (2-3, 0-2 home)
In the battle of mediocre AFC East teams with no running games, I’ll take the Jets. Well, they are at home. And Chad Pennington is a much stronger quarterback than Joey Harrington. I’ll be honest…I considered picking the upset here, but I’m not completely sold on Harrington being much better than Culpepper. He may prove me wrong, but I wouldn’t bet on it…
My Pick: Jets win against a familiar foe
San Diego (3-1, 1-1 away)
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San Francisco (2-3, 2-1 home)
In the battle of California (the Raiders don’t count), I’ll take the team with the better offense, defense and special teams. Game, set, match!
My Pick: Chargers roll on the road
SAFE PICK
Houston (1-3, 0-1 away)
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Dallas (2-2, 1-0 home)
What does O-W-E-N-S spell? In my dictionary, it spells dysfunction. Owens’ complaints about his role in the offense during last week’s loss to the Eagles were mistimed and absurd. He was targeted far more than any other receiver on the field and gave up on an under-thrown pass and allowed it to be intercepted when he could have broken up the play. He then proceeded to get into a verbal spat with the receiving coach during the week. The Cowboys really should beat the Texans handily at home, but they seem to be reeling right now, and I can’t imagine that Bledsoe and Glenn are taking too kindly to Owens’ behavior and comments as of late. As for the Texans…everyone in the media keeps saying that Carr will have an awful game this week because he will “finally face a strong pass rush”. Um, didn’t he already play the Colts and Redskins this year? Last time I checked, they both have pretty strong pass rushes as well. And while his team lost both games, Carr played pretty well. Sure, he is still taking sacks this year, but he is also completing a lot of long passes to Andre Johnson. As the Cowboys have what I perceive to be a weak secondary, I expect that he will be able to do the same on Sunday. I know that the Texans have no defense to speak of, but I get the feeling that it might not matter this week. The Cowboys seem susceptible to an upset right now, and I think that it just might happen.
My Pick: Texans shock the Cowboys
Seattle (3-1, 1-1 away)
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St. Louis (4-1, 2-0 home)
The Rams’ 4-1 record could not be more deceiving…If not for inexcusable fumbles by Brett Favre and Kurt Warner in the red zone during the last minute, they would be 2-3 right now. The Seahawks, even without a solid running game, will expose St. Louis as the middle-of-the-pack team that they are. Steven Jackson may lead the league in rushing yards but Seattle’s underrated run defense should change that on Sunday. And while the Rams’ defense is better than it has been in recent years, Matt Hasselbeck and Seattle’s never ending supply of solid receivers should be able to systematically tear their secondary apart. Would you expect anything less from the Seahawks after having an extra week to prepare for this game?
My Pick: Seattle wins easily
SAFE PICK
Cincinnati (3-1, 2-0 away)
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Tampa Bay (0-4, 0-2 home)
I flirted with picking an upset in this game, but I just can’t see Marvin Lewis not properly preparing his team for this game. He has had an extra week to get them ready, and they have to be pretty embarrassed after their loss at home to the Patriots in their last game. I do think that Bruce Gradikowski and the Bucs will score some points and put up a fight, but they’re not going to beat an angry Bengals team that has had two weeks to prepare for them.
My Pick: The Bengals win on the road
Carolina (3-2, 1-1 away)
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Baltimore (4-1, 2-0 home)
Let’s face it: Steve McNair, at this point in his career, isn’t much better than Kyle Boller. The Ravens’ defense may be the best in the AFC, but their offense is pretty stagnant, as they showed on Monday during their 13-3 loss to the Broncos. And as long as a washed-up Jamal Lewis is playing over Mike Anderson, they will continue to be without a consistent running game, to go along with their pedestrian passing game. This means that the Ravens’ defense will continue to spend more time on the field than they should, which will start to wear them out. If there’s one receiver that you don’t want to face when you’re starting to tire, it’s Steve Smith. He was quiet last week, but I get the feeling that he will make his presence felt on Sunday and help hand the Ravens their second straight setback.
My Pick: Panthers upset the offense-challenged Ravens
Kansas City (2-2, 1-1 away)
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Pittsburgh (1-3, 1-1 home)
Sure, the Chiefs’ pass defense has been much improved this year but, at the risk of sounding cliché, it is do-or-die time for the Steelers and Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh will be a desperate team on Sunday, and, not to take anything away from the Chiefs, but I can’t see them losing this game.
My Pick: The Steelers get back on track
SAFE PICK
Oakland (0-4, 0-2 away)
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Denver (3-1, 2-0 home)
Let’s see…the worst offense in the league, on the road, against one of the better defenses in the league. I think that pretty much sums it up. Except for this: Disregard any positive plays that Plummer makes this week because the Raiders’ defense is almost as bad as their offense.
My Pick: Broncos win at home for the second time in seven days
SAFE PICK
Monday Night:
(I’m picking this one now since it is really obvious who is going to win so it doesn’t merit its own post)
Chicago (5-0, 2-0 away)
at
Arizona (1-4, 1-2 home)
The Bears are playing better than any team in the league right now, and I think that they will continue to roll on Monday Night. It will be a long night for both Leinart and the Arizona defense…
My Pick: DA BEARS!
(Dennis Green better start looking for references…)
SAFE PICK
Alright, time to get back to being lazy and hanging out with the family…check back next week…
Last Week: 10-4
(SAFE PICKS: 5-0)
Season: 50-24
(SAFE PICKS: 24-5)
New York Giants (2-2, 1-1 away)
at
Atlanta (3-1, 2-0 home)
While I do think that last week’s superb defensive showing against the Redskins may have been just an aberration brought on more by desperation than anything else, I don’t really see the Falcons capitalizing on what I see to be the real weak point of the Giants’ defense: their secondary. Let’s face it, Vick is not much of a passer and probably never will be. And this year the Falcons have decided to focus completely on running the ball. I think that the Giants will be able to hold their own against the Falcons’ rushing attack, and I think that Tiki Barber will build off of his success last week and have another solid game. The Falcons’ rush defense has been far too inconsistent this year (just as it was last year), leading me to believe that they are going to get burned for some huge plays if they play a talented back.
My Pick: Giants upset Atlanta
Buffalo (2-3, 1-2 away)
at
Detroit (0-5, 0-2 home)
At first glance, this looks like a great opportunity for the Lions to pick up their first win. But thinking about it a little more, I realized that the Lions have been blown out by all of the teams with good defenses that they have played and have kept things close against the teams with awful defenses. I still think (despite the way they were manhandled by the Bears last week) that Buffalo’s defense is pretty solid. And let’s be honest, Detroit’s defense is pretty bad. I would be willing to disregard all of this, if I felt that the Lions were a desperate team, but I get the vibe that the majority of these guys just don’t care. I hate picking a team quarterbacked by J.P. Losman to win, but it looks I am forced to here…
My Pick: The Bills keep the Lions winless
Philadelphia (4-1, 2-0 away)
at
New Orleans (4-1, 2-0 home)
The Eagles seem to be on the top of their game right now, but I expect there to be a bit of a letdown after their huge win against Dallas last week. I also think that the Saints, playing in the Super Dome, are a pretty tough team to beat. It’s going to be a close game, but my gut tells me that the Saints will pull it off.
My Pick: Saints pick up a huge a win at home
Tennessee (0-5, 0-3 away)
at
Washington (2-3, 1-1 home)
The Redskins lost in embarrassing fashion against the Giants last week…rest assured, they will take out their frustrations on the Titans. Tennessee played a close game against the Colts last week, but let’s be honest, it was only because Indianapolis was looking ahead, assuming that the victory would be handed to them. Bottom line: the ‘skins need this game, they’re playing at home and they will win easily.
My Pick: ‘skins win big
SAFE PICK
Miami (1-4, 0-3 away)
at
New York Jets (2-3, 0-2 home)
In the battle of mediocre AFC East teams with no running games, I’ll take the Jets. Well, they are at home. And Chad Pennington is a much stronger quarterback than Joey Harrington. I’ll be honest…I considered picking the upset here, but I’m not completely sold on Harrington being much better than Culpepper. He may prove me wrong, but I wouldn’t bet on it…
My Pick: Jets win against a familiar foe
San Diego (3-1, 1-1 away)
at
San Francisco (2-3, 2-1 home)
In the battle of California (the Raiders don’t count), I’ll take the team with the better offense, defense and special teams. Game, set, match!
My Pick: Chargers roll on the road
SAFE PICK
Houston (1-3, 0-1 away)
at
Dallas (2-2, 1-0 home)
What does O-W-E-N-S spell? In my dictionary, it spells dysfunction. Owens’ complaints about his role in the offense during last week’s loss to the Eagles were mistimed and absurd. He was targeted far more than any other receiver on the field and gave up on an under-thrown pass and allowed it to be intercepted when he could have broken up the play. He then proceeded to get into a verbal spat with the receiving coach during the week. The Cowboys really should beat the Texans handily at home, but they seem to be reeling right now, and I can’t imagine that Bledsoe and Glenn are taking too kindly to Owens’ behavior and comments as of late. As for the Texans…everyone in the media keeps saying that Carr will have an awful game this week because he will “finally face a strong pass rush”. Um, didn’t he already play the Colts and Redskins this year? Last time I checked, they both have pretty strong pass rushes as well. And while his team lost both games, Carr played pretty well. Sure, he is still taking sacks this year, but he is also completing a lot of long passes to Andre Johnson. As the Cowboys have what I perceive to be a weak secondary, I expect that he will be able to do the same on Sunday. I know that the Texans have no defense to speak of, but I get the feeling that it might not matter this week. The Cowboys seem susceptible to an upset right now, and I think that it just might happen.
My Pick: Texans shock the Cowboys
Seattle (3-1, 1-1 away)
at
St. Louis (4-1, 2-0 home)
The Rams’ 4-1 record could not be more deceiving…If not for inexcusable fumbles by Brett Favre and Kurt Warner in the red zone during the last minute, they would be 2-3 right now. The Seahawks, even without a solid running game, will expose St. Louis as the middle-of-the-pack team that they are. Steven Jackson may lead the league in rushing yards but Seattle’s underrated run defense should change that on Sunday. And while the Rams’ defense is better than it has been in recent years, Matt Hasselbeck and Seattle’s never ending supply of solid receivers should be able to systematically tear their secondary apart. Would you expect anything less from the Seahawks after having an extra week to prepare for this game?
My Pick: Seattle wins easily
SAFE PICK
Cincinnati (3-1, 2-0 away)
at
Tampa Bay (0-4, 0-2 home)
I flirted with picking an upset in this game, but I just can’t see Marvin Lewis not properly preparing his team for this game. He has had an extra week to get them ready, and they have to be pretty embarrassed after their loss at home to the Patriots in their last game. I do think that Bruce Gradikowski and the Bucs will score some points and put up a fight, but they’re not going to beat an angry Bengals team that has had two weeks to prepare for them.
My Pick: The Bengals win on the road
Carolina (3-2, 1-1 away)
at
Baltimore (4-1, 2-0 home)
Let’s face it: Steve McNair, at this point in his career, isn’t much better than Kyle Boller. The Ravens’ defense may be the best in the AFC, but their offense is pretty stagnant, as they showed on Monday during their 13-3 loss to the Broncos. And as long as a washed-up Jamal Lewis is playing over Mike Anderson, they will continue to be without a consistent running game, to go along with their pedestrian passing game. This means that the Ravens’ defense will continue to spend more time on the field than they should, which will start to wear them out. If there’s one receiver that you don’t want to face when you’re starting to tire, it’s Steve Smith. He was quiet last week, but I get the feeling that he will make his presence felt on Sunday and help hand the Ravens their second straight setback.
My Pick: Panthers upset the offense-challenged Ravens
Kansas City (2-2, 1-1 away)
at
Pittsburgh (1-3, 1-1 home)
Sure, the Chiefs’ pass defense has been much improved this year but, at the risk of sounding cliché, it is do-or-die time for the Steelers and Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh will be a desperate team on Sunday, and, not to take anything away from the Chiefs, but I can’t see them losing this game.
My Pick: The Steelers get back on track
SAFE PICK
Oakland (0-4, 0-2 away)
at
Denver (3-1, 2-0 home)
Let’s see…the worst offense in the league, on the road, against one of the better defenses in the league. I think that pretty much sums it up. Except for this: Disregard any positive plays that Plummer makes this week because the Raiders’ defense is almost as bad as their offense.
My Pick: Broncos win at home for the second time in seven days
SAFE PICK
Monday Night:
(I’m picking this one now since it is really obvious who is going to win so it doesn’t merit its own post)
Chicago (5-0, 2-0 away)
at
Arizona (1-4, 1-2 home)
The Bears are playing better than any team in the league right now, and I think that they will continue to roll on Monday Night. It will be a long night for both Leinart and the Arizona defense…
My Pick: DA BEARS!
(Dennis Green better start looking for references…)
SAFE PICK
Alright, time to get back to being lazy and hanging out with the family…check back next week…
Monday, October 09, 2006
Just Another Manic Monday?!?
I’m running late (again) so let’s get right to this:
Baltimore (4-0, 2-0 away)
at
Denver (2-1, 1-0 home)
Someway, somehow, every team favored by Vegas to win on Sunday did so…As a result, despite picking 10 of the 13 games correctly, I am two points behind two other people in my pick ‘em league. Now, there is a chance for me to redeem myself tonight and make one of those games back. The question is: Did they both pick the favorites to win across the board? I mean, if you are really feeling lucky enough to get away with picking 13 out of 14 favorites to win, what’s to stop you from making it 14 for 14? Well, Jake Plummer for starters…The Ravens have the top rushing defense in the league (allowing a mere 63.3 rushing yards per game on 2.6 yards per carry) and should be able to contain Denver’s running game, which the Broncos have relied on heavily during their last two wins. This will force Jake Plummer to throw the ball a lot more than he has in their last two games when Shannahan was able to keep him from hurting them by simply managing the game and handing off to Tatum Bell. Let me tell you, this is going to be an ugly game. The Broncos have a superb defense also (3rd overall in the NFL) and the Ravens have a pretty mediocre offense. Still, matched up against a great defense, I’d take McNair over Plummer any day of the week even if he doesn’t have the weapons around him that Plummer does. Mark my words…Plummer is going to turn the ball over…a lot.
My Pick: 13 for 14 is still pretty crazy, but Plummer blows Vegas’s shot at a perfect week
(i.e. Ravens win!)
That’s all for this week…
Baltimore (4-0, 2-0 away)
at
Denver (2-1, 1-0 home)
Someway, somehow, every team favored by Vegas to win on Sunday did so…As a result, despite picking 10 of the 13 games correctly, I am two points behind two other people in my pick ‘em league. Now, there is a chance for me to redeem myself tonight and make one of those games back. The question is: Did they both pick the favorites to win across the board? I mean, if you are really feeling lucky enough to get away with picking 13 out of 14 favorites to win, what’s to stop you from making it 14 for 14? Well, Jake Plummer for starters…The Ravens have the top rushing defense in the league (allowing a mere 63.3 rushing yards per game on 2.6 yards per carry) and should be able to contain Denver’s running game, which the Broncos have relied on heavily during their last two wins. This will force Jake Plummer to throw the ball a lot more than he has in their last two games when Shannahan was able to keep him from hurting them by simply managing the game and handing off to Tatum Bell. Let me tell you, this is going to be an ugly game. The Broncos have a superb defense also (3rd overall in the NFL) and the Ravens have a pretty mediocre offense. Still, matched up against a great defense, I’d take McNair over Plummer any day of the week even if he doesn’t have the weapons around him that Plummer does. Mark my words…Plummer is going to turn the ball over…a lot.
My Pick: 13 for 14 is still pretty crazy, but Plummer blows Vegas’s shot at a perfect week
(i.e. Ravens win!)
That’s all for this week…
Saturday, October 07, 2006
Hopefully this isn't the beer talking...
Sorry about the lateness and brevity of this post…drunken debauchery intervened last night and I am now scrambling to get this out before nightfall…
Last Week: 10-4
(SAFE PICKS: 4-2)
Season: 40-20
(SAFE PICKS: 19-5)
Buffalo (2-2, 1-1 away)
at
Chicago (4-0, 2-0 home)
While the Bills’ defense has looked pretty good this year (although they are only 8th overall in the AFC), their passing game is still their Achilles’ heel. J.P. Losman has put up better numbers this year but they are still not putting points on the board and he is still making mistakes at inopportune times. The Bears’ defense made Matt Hasselbeck look like J.P. Losman last week; what will they make J.P Losman look like this week? I shudder at the thought…
My Pick: Bears win another blowout at home
SAFE PICK
St. Louis (3-1, 1-1 away)
at
Green Bay (1-3, 0-2 home)
This game should be a shootout…I really don’t trust either defense (they are ranked 10th and last in the NFC respectively) and both teams have pretty good passing games. Favre should have a big game…if he doesn’t, there are no excuses. The Rams don’t have a great pass rush and he has probably the most talented group of receivers that he has ever had (Driver, Jennings, Ferguson and Robinson). The Packers have a lot of holes, but they should be able to put up points at will against mediocre defenses…That’s not to say that the Rams won’t score a lot here too because they will. But come on, if Favre has anything left, he’ll pull this one out…
My Pick: Packers win as Favre has a huge day passing the ball
Tennessee (0-4, 0-2 away)
at
Indianapolis (4-0, 2-0 home)
Let’s see…The Titans have a rookie quarterback starting, no running game and a defense that can’t stop the run or the pass (unless it’s coming out of the hands of Daunte Culpepper). This could get ugly…
My Pick: Colts Win BIG
SAFE PICK
Detroit (0-4, 0-2 away)
at
Minnesota (2-2, 1-1 home)
The Lions are still looking for its first win…they better keep looking. The Vikings’ defense has been solid all year and I don’t expect them to crack against a very ordinary Lions’ offense that has looked better than it actually is during the past couple weeks. Maybe Brad Johnson will finally get things going too?
My Pick: Vikings win at home
Miami (1-3, 0-2 away)
at
New England (3-1, 1-1 home)
Given my recent history with applying the SAFE PICK tag to games involving New England, it would seem logical for me to avoid using it here. Not a chance! Daunte Culpepper has struggled avoiding the anemic pass rushes and reading the poor coverage schemes of Texans and Titans the last two weeks…He is going to have a very long day against a team that disguises its blitzes and coverage schemes better than anyone else in the league. There is an off-chance that Culpepper will sit to rest a “bruised shoulder” but personally I think that this is a ploy and Saban is looking for an opportunity to try out Joey Harrington to see if he can do any better with this offense than Culpepper has so far. So much for contending for a Super Bowl…
My Pick: Patriots win big at home
SAFE PICK
Tampa Bay (0-3, 0-1 away)
at
New Orleans (3-1, 1-0 home)
Taking over an 0-3 team is an arduous enough task for a rookie quarterback…compound that with an ineffective offensive line, a stagnant running game and a road game against a team that excells in all of these areas and has as a solid pass defense and you are in for an ugly outcome, not to mention a really really ridiculously long sentence…
My Pick: Saints win big at home
SAFE PICK
Washington (2-2, 1-1 away)
at
New York Giants (1-2, 0-1 home)
All bets are off in this game…The Redskins’ secondary is still depleted and banged-up so Eli Manning should have a good day passing the ball; on the other hand, the Giants’ secondary is awful so I expect huge games from Brunell and Santana Moss. Barber and Portis, being the premier backs that they are, will likely both end up with over 100 yards rushing as well. This is going to be a wild one…I'll take the 'skins, just because they look like they are hitting their stride offensively.
My Pick: Redskins win a shootout on the road
Cleveland (1-3, 1-1 away)
at
Carolina (2-2, 1-1 home)
The Panthers’ offense looks to be rounding back into form now that Steve Smith is back, but I’m still not sold on their defense. Their secondary looks much shakier than it was last year and as far as I know there are no injuries to blame for this. I think that, if the Browns’ offensive line can give Frye some time in the pocket, he will find Braylon Edwards open deep. Of course, the Panthers’ front line are still pretty damn tough to block…
My Pick: Panthers but they better get a good performance out of Peppers and co. or the Browns will make it interesting...
Kansas City (1-2, 0-1 away)
at
Arizona (1-3, 1-1 home)
This is a surprisingly bad match-up for Matt Leinart in his first NFL start…While the Chiefs’ once spectacular offense has sputtered, their defense has really taken off. Their passing defense is ranked second in the AFC and as such, I can’t see Leinart having much success here. The Cardinals will need to get a good game out of James in order for them to have a shot at winning…even then, I can’t see them slowing down Larry Johnson. I’ll take the Chiefs here…
My Pick: Kansas City wins on the road
Oakland (0-3, 0-1 away)
at
San Francisco (1-3, 1-1 home)
While both of these teams are bad, one is in a class of its own. While neither team has any discernible talent on defense, other than a disgruntled wide receiver who wants to be traded, Oakland has no discernible talent on offense either. The 49ers are at least headed in the right direction…they have a talented young quarterback in Alex Smith, a solid receiving threat in Antonio Bryant and an emerging running back in Frank Gore. Plus, they are playing at home. That should be more than enough to propel them to victory here…
My Pick: 49ers beat the hapless Raiders
SAFE PICK
New York Jets (2-2, 2-0 away)
at
Jacksonville (2-2, 2-0 home)
The Jets are 2-0 on the road; the Jags are 2-0 at home…something’s got to give. Pennington has been very successful this year throwing the ball and I think that Crotchery and Coles are solid receivers. They should be able to pick up some yards against Jacksonville’s secondary which has looked a bit leaky the past couple weeks. The Jets’ problem is on the other side of the ball. They rank 12th in the AFC in rushing defense, allowing just over 140 rushing yards per contest. They will have a tough time containing Maurice Drew-Jones and Fred Taylor who have looked great the last couple weeks.
My Pick: Jags run all over the Jets
Dallas (2-1, 1-1 away)
at
Philadelphia (3-1, 1-1 home)
This is, of course, the marquee match-up this week. Owens and McNabb face each other for the first time since they parted ways so inharmoniously last season. Now, I am pretty sure that if McNabb had all, or most, of his weapons at his disposal, the Eagles would win this game. But, Brian Westbrook may miss the game and even if he plays, will be slowed by his knee injury. Donte Stallworth won’t be playing because of a lingering hamstring injury. Reggie Brown, the number two receiver, is listed on the injury list as questionable with a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, all of the Cowboys’ players, T.O. included, are healthy and pumped up for this game. Can McNabb win this game by himself on offense? I’d like to see it happen but I can’t imagine that he will be able to match the offensive production of Bledsoe, Glenn, Owens, Witten and Julius Jones when his only viable option is L.J. Smith, his tight end.
My Pick: Cowboys win Round One of T.O/McNabb (but won’t have the last laugh)
Pittsburgh (1-2, 0-1 away)
at
San Diego (2-1, 1-0 home)
I initially was tempted to pick the upset here, but it really doesn’t make any sense. Rothelisberger has been awful throwing the ball so far this year and the Chargers, with their number one ranked pass defense, are hardly the team you would expect him to get back on track against. Still, there’s always a chance that Schottenheimer will blow a close game with a stupid move, which is why this isn’t a SAFE PICK…
My Pick: Chargers prove to be a poor antidote for Big Ben’s rusty gears
That’s all for now…I’ll be back tomorrow with my Monday Night pick…
Last Week: 10-4
(SAFE PICKS: 4-2)
Season: 40-20
(SAFE PICKS: 19-5)
Buffalo (2-2, 1-1 away)
at
Chicago (4-0, 2-0 home)
While the Bills’ defense has looked pretty good this year (although they are only 8th overall in the AFC), their passing game is still their Achilles’ heel. J.P. Losman has put up better numbers this year but they are still not putting points on the board and he is still making mistakes at inopportune times. The Bears’ defense made Matt Hasselbeck look like J.P. Losman last week; what will they make J.P Losman look like this week? I shudder at the thought…
My Pick: Bears win another blowout at home
SAFE PICK
St. Louis (3-1, 1-1 away)
at
Green Bay (1-3, 0-2 home)
This game should be a shootout…I really don’t trust either defense (they are ranked 10th and last in the NFC respectively) and both teams have pretty good passing games. Favre should have a big game…if he doesn’t, there are no excuses. The Rams don’t have a great pass rush and he has probably the most talented group of receivers that he has ever had (Driver, Jennings, Ferguson and Robinson). The Packers have a lot of holes, but they should be able to put up points at will against mediocre defenses…That’s not to say that the Rams won’t score a lot here too because they will. But come on, if Favre has anything left, he’ll pull this one out…
My Pick: Packers win as Favre has a huge day passing the ball
Tennessee (0-4, 0-2 away)
at
Indianapolis (4-0, 2-0 home)
Let’s see…The Titans have a rookie quarterback starting, no running game and a defense that can’t stop the run or the pass (unless it’s coming out of the hands of Daunte Culpepper). This could get ugly…
My Pick: Colts Win BIG
SAFE PICK
Detroit (0-4, 0-2 away)
at
Minnesota (2-2, 1-1 home)
The Lions are still looking for its first win…they better keep looking. The Vikings’ defense has been solid all year and I don’t expect them to crack against a very ordinary Lions’ offense that has looked better than it actually is during the past couple weeks. Maybe Brad Johnson will finally get things going too?
My Pick: Vikings win at home
Miami (1-3, 0-2 away)
at
New England (3-1, 1-1 home)
Given my recent history with applying the SAFE PICK tag to games involving New England, it would seem logical for me to avoid using it here. Not a chance! Daunte Culpepper has struggled avoiding the anemic pass rushes and reading the poor coverage schemes of Texans and Titans the last two weeks…He is going to have a very long day against a team that disguises its blitzes and coverage schemes better than anyone else in the league. There is an off-chance that Culpepper will sit to rest a “bruised shoulder” but personally I think that this is a ploy and Saban is looking for an opportunity to try out Joey Harrington to see if he can do any better with this offense than Culpepper has so far. So much for contending for a Super Bowl…
My Pick: Patriots win big at home
SAFE PICK
Tampa Bay (0-3, 0-1 away)
at
New Orleans (3-1, 1-0 home)
Taking over an 0-3 team is an arduous enough task for a rookie quarterback…compound that with an ineffective offensive line, a stagnant running game and a road game against a team that excells in all of these areas and has as a solid pass defense and you are in for an ugly outcome, not to mention a really really ridiculously long sentence…
My Pick: Saints win big at home
SAFE PICK
Washington (2-2, 1-1 away)
at
New York Giants (1-2, 0-1 home)
All bets are off in this game…The Redskins’ secondary is still depleted and banged-up so Eli Manning should have a good day passing the ball; on the other hand, the Giants’ secondary is awful so I expect huge games from Brunell and Santana Moss. Barber and Portis, being the premier backs that they are, will likely both end up with over 100 yards rushing as well. This is going to be a wild one…I'll take the 'skins, just because they look like they are hitting their stride offensively.
My Pick: Redskins win a shootout on the road
Cleveland (1-3, 1-1 away)
at
Carolina (2-2, 1-1 home)
The Panthers’ offense looks to be rounding back into form now that Steve Smith is back, but I’m still not sold on their defense. Their secondary looks much shakier than it was last year and as far as I know there are no injuries to blame for this. I think that, if the Browns’ offensive line can give Frye some time in the pocket, he will find Braylon Edwards open deep. Of course, the Panthers’ front line are still pretty damn tough to block…
My Pick: Panthers but they better get a good performance out of Peppers and co. or the Browns will make it interesting...
Kansas City (1-2, 0-1 away)
at
Arizona (1-3, 1-1 home)
This is a surprisingly bad match-up for Matt Leinart in his first NFL start…While the Chiefs’ once spectacular offense has sputtered, their defense has really taken off. Their passing defense is ranked second in the AFC and as such, I can’t see Leinart having much success here. The Cardinals will need to get a good game out of James in order for them to have a shot at winning…even then, I can’t see them slowing down Larry Johnson. I’ll take the Chiefs here…
My Pick: Kansas City wins on the road
Oakland (0-3, 0-1 away)
at
San Francisco (1-3, 1-1 home)
While both of these teams are bad, one is in a class of its own. While neither team has any discernible talent on defense, other than a disgruntled wide receiver who wants to be traded, Oakland has no discernible talent on offense either. The 49ers are at least headed in the right direction…they have a talented young quarterback in Alex Smith, a solid receiving threat in Antonio Bryant and an emerging running back in Frank Gore. Plus, they are playing at home. That should be more than enough to propel them to victory here…
My Pick: 49ers beat the hapless Raiders
SAFE PICK
New York Jets (2-2, 2-0 away)
at
Jacksonville (2-2, 2-0 home)
The Jets are 2-0 on the road; the Jags are 2-0 at home…something’s got to give. Pennington has been very successful this year throwing the ball and I think that Crotchery and Coles are solid receivers. They should be able to pick up some yards against Jacksonville’s secondary which has looked a bit leaky the past couple weeks. The Jets’ problem is on the other side of the ball. They rank 12th in the AFC in rushing defense, allowing just over 140 rushing yards per contest. They will have a tough time containing Maurice Drew-Jones and Fred Taylor who have looked great the last couple weeks.
My Pick: Jags run all over the Jets
Dallas (2-1, 1-1 away)
at
Philadelphia (3-1, 1-1 home)
This is, of course, the marquee match-up this week. Owens and McNabb face each other for the first time since they parted ways so inharmoniously last season. Now, I am pretty sure that if McNabb had all, or most, of his weapons at his disposal, the Eagles would win this game. But, Brian Westbrook may miss the game and even if he plays, will be slowed by his knee injury. Donte Stallworth won’t be playing because of a lingering hamstring injury. Reggie Brown, the number two receiver, is listed on the injury list as questionable with a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, all of the Cowboys’ players, T.O. included, are healthy and pumped up for this game. Can McNabb win this game by himself on offense? I’d like to see it happen but I can’t imagine that he will be able to match the offensive production of Bledsoe, Glenn, Owens, Witten and Julius Jones when his only viable option is L.J. Smith, his tight end.
My Pick: Cowboys win Round One of T.O/McNabb (but won’t have the last laugh)
Pittsburgh (1-2, 0-1 away)
at
San Diego (2-1, 1-0 home)
I initially was tempted to pick the upset here, but it really doesn’t make any sense. Rothelisberger has been awful throwing the ball so far this year and the Chargers, with their number one ranked pass defense, are hardly the team you would expect him to get back on track against. Still, there’s always a chance that Schottenheimer will blow a close game with a stupid move, which is why this isn’t a SAFE PICK…
My Pick: Chargers prove to be a poor antidote for Big Ben’s rusty gears
That’s all for now…I’ll be back tomorrow with my Monday Night pick…
Monday, October 02, 2006
It Sounds Like Somebody's Got a Case of the Mondays...
When examining my picks this week, do me a favor and just look at the overall picture…my SAFE PICKs didn’t fare quite as well as I did overall. This has led one of my friends to question the SAFEness (yes I just invented a word) of my SAFE PICKs and even go so far as to suggest that I stop making them. I assure you, I am not listening to him…By the end of the season my SAFE PICK percentage should accurately reflect my picking ability. It is silly to make such a harsh judgment based on such a small sample size.
Also, I can’t say that I was complaining when the Patriots decimated the Bengals in Cincinnati last night…I just felt that the absence of their entire secondary would bode well for the Bengals’ explosive passing attack. As it turned out, it didn’t. As he usually does when everyone doubts his team’s chances, Belichick found a way to prove everyone wrong. And could Lawrence Maroney be the biggest steal of this year’s draft? Wow…
Anyway, let’s shift gears towards tonight’s game:
Green Bay (1-2, 1-0 away)
at
Philadelphia (2-1, 0-1 home)
The stats seem to say it all: The game is being played in Philadelphia, where Brett Favre is 0-5 in his career. The Packers’ defense is allowing 388 yards a game of offense, which places them dead last in the NFC. The Eagles, led by Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook who are both having career years so far, are averaging 436 yards of total offense, tops in the NFC by nearly 50 yards per game. So all of this adds up to mean that the Eagles will win in a blowout, right? Well, I’m not so sure…The Packers’ passing game has really developed over the last couple weeks and I’m not sold on the Eagles’ secondary. If the Packers’ offensive line can give Favre some time to throw the ball, this could be a close game…
My Pick: Eagles win but have to work for it
Also, I can’t say that I was complaining when the Patriots decimated the Bengals in Cincinnati last night…I just felt that the absence of their entire secondary would bode well for the Bengals’ explosive passing attack. As it turned out, it didn’t. As he usually does when everyone doubts his team’s chances, Belichick found a way to prove everyone wrong. And could Lawrence Maroney be the biggest steal of this year’s draft? Wow…
Anyway, let’s shift gears towards tonight’s game:
Green Bay (1-2, 1-0 away)
at
Philadelphia (2-1, 0-1 home)
The stats seem to say it all: The game is being played in Philadelphia, where Brett Favre is 0-5 in his career. The Packers’ defense is allowing 388 yards a game of offense, which places them dead last in the NFC. The Eagles, led by Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook who are both having career years so far, are averaging 436 yards of total offense, tops in the NFC by nearly 50 yards per game. So all of this adds up to mean that the Eagles will win in a blowout, right? Well, I’m not so sure…The Packers’ passing game has really developed over the last couple weeks and I’m not sold on the Eagles’ secondary. If the Packers’ offensive line can give Favre some time to throw the ball, this could be a close game…
My Pick: Eagles win but have to work for it
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