From Monotony to Madness...

Parity purists, eat you heart out. After a week in which every favored team won, all hell broke out last week. Six underdogs won, including three teams (the Buccaneers, Lions and Titans) that were previously winless. To cap it all off, Arizona nearly pulled off an improbable upset of the Bears on Monday night before blowing a 23-7 second-half lead without allowing an offensive touchdown. Pigskin Pandemonium at its finest. So, what’s in store for this week? More insanity? A return to normalcy? Read on and all will be revealed…

Last Week: 9-4
(SAFE PICKS: 5-1)

Season: 59-28
(SAFE PICKS: 29-6)

Pittsburgh (2-3, 0-2 away)
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Atlanta (3-2, 2-1 home)

Look out, the Steelers are back! Big Ben picked the solid K.C. secondary apart (16 of 19 for 238 yards and 2 TDs, no INTs) and Willie Parker tore things up on the ground (21 rushes for 109 yards). Meanwhile Atlanta allowed Tiki Barber to run at will (26 rushes for 185 yards) and got blown out at home by the Giants last week. On the other side of the spectrum, the Steelers’ vaunted run defense held stud running back Larry Johnson to 26 yards on 15 carries. All of this spells big trouble for Michael Vick and the run-happy, pass-sloppy Falcons…

My Pick: Pittsburgh Steels the show from Atlanta
SAFE PICK

New England (4-1, 2-0 away)
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Buffalo (2-4, 1-1 home)

Sure, Buffalo is at home, and they did play the Pats pretty close in the season opener…but they lost to the %$@# Lions last week! If they can’t stop Jon Kitna and Kevin Jones, how can you like their chances against Brady, Dillon and Maroney? The Bills are reeling and New England is rolling…In other words, I think that this game could get ugly…

My Pick: Patriots win easily on the road
SAFE PICK

Carolina (4-2, 2-1 away)
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Cincinnati (3-2, 1-1 home)

The Bengals have been embarrassed in each of their last two games, first being blown out at home by the Patriots and then, last week, losing to the previously winless Buccaneers. There’s no doubt in my mind that this team is better than they have played the last two weeks. I think that Chad Johnson’s comments during the week are reflective of the team’s attitude right now: They know that they need to be more aggressive on offense and they know that they can beat the Panthers. The Panthers, although they are undefeated since Steve Smith’s return from a hamstring injury, are not perfect. Their secondary can be beaten (as evidenced by much-maligned backup QB Kyle Boller throwing three TD passes against them last week) and I think that the Bengals have the weapons, in Johnson and Houshmandzadeh, to exploit what I see to be Carolina’s most glaring weakness. Delhomme and Smith will likely return the favor against a Bengals’ pass defense that while it forces a lot of turnovers, also gives up a lot of big plays. I see this being a shootout, but I think that Carson Palmer will be up to the task. He needs to have a statement game and prove to the league that he’s healthy and dangerous again, and I think that this will be it.

My Pick: Palmer leads the Bengals to their highest scoring performance of the season and a must-needed win

San Diego (4-1, 2-1 away)
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Kansas City (2-3, 1-1 home)

Yeah, the Chiefs got their butts handed to them last week in Pittsburgh…but I can assure you that won’t happen again this week. Coming off a neck injury, Larry Johnson was tentative last week and really never got it going against a great Steelers’ rush defense. This week he is facing nearly as tough a task against a Chargers squad that is ranked second in the AFC in rush defense. Still, I expect him to come up with a much better game than last week as I think he’s shaken off the jitters. Damon Huard had an unimpressive game last week in Pittsburgh, but much of that was because the Chiefs were too conservative, never one trying to throw the ball down the field in the first half. Word out of Kansas City is that they are not making that mistake again…for better or worse, anything in their playbook is fair game this week. The real key to this game is how the Chiefs’ offensive line plays. If they allow Damon Huard time in the pocket to throw the ball, I really think that Tony Gonzalez can capitalize with some big plays in the middle of the field. The Chargers have a spectacular defense, but their one weakness, other than their head coach, is their safeties, Terrance Kiel and Marlon McCree. The key to beating the Chargers is exploiting this weakness and I think that Tony Gonzalez is just the kind of weapon to do so. I also think that they will try to look for Kennison deep every once in awhile to switch things up. The Chiefs will also benefit from the return of Dante Hall this week, one of the most dangerous returners in the game. And their pass defense, other than last week against the Steelers, has been much improved this year. I am discounting that game, because we all knew that Pittsburgh and Big Ben were due for a breakout game. I think that they will be able to hold their own against the Chargers’ passing game. But will they be able to contain a running duo the likes of which have never been seen (they call themselves Tenacious T)? Well, I think that Turner and Tomlinson will be able to pick up some yards on the ground, but I think that the combination of a solid defensive performance by the secondary, some big special teams plays from Hall and a passing attack featuring Gonzalez will lift the Chiefs to the upset victory at home. Remember too that this game is in Arrowhead…one of the toughest places to play in all of football.

My Pick: Chiefs upset the Chargers

Green Bay (1-4, 1-1 away)
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Miami (1-5, 1-1 home)

Really Really Ridiculously Misleading Stat of the Week: Zach Thomas leads the league in tackles with 60. Anyone who has watched Miami play at all this year can see that Thomas has lost a step and has been prone to mistakes. ESPN wants me to believe that the Dolphins’ defense will respond to his comments suggesting that they should play a high school football team so they can get a win; personally, I don’t think it will make a difference. Their defense looks washed up and I just don’t see any passion in their play. And I haven’t even started with their offense…
That’s because this week Harrington should have decent numbers against a Packers defense that couldn’t stop my IM football team from scoring (did I mention that we were the only team in our league not to make the playoffs?). If Favre has anything left though, he will find a way to win against a 1-5 team led by Joey Harrington…Miami’s degraded defense will not be much of a factor.

My Pick: Packers win but Zach Thomas continues to pile up meaningless tackles

Detroit (1-5, 0-3 away)
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New York Jets (3-3, 1-2 home)

The Lions picked up their first win of the year last week…against the Bills. Am I supposed to be impressed? I really blame Buffalo’s overrated defense in that one…127 rushing yards from Kevin Jones? I mean, really…the Bills should be embarrassed right now. Speaking of Kevin Jones…I think he will come back down to earth in this game despite the fact that the Jets are in the middle of the pack as far as rushing defenses go. He’s just not that good a back and he’s running behind a patchwork offensive line. Roy Williams will probably have a solid game and the Lions may score a touchdown or two…but Chad Pennington will tear Detroit’s defense apart. Look for huge games from Coles and Crotchery and a Jets win.

My Pick: Jets move above .500
SAFE PICK

Philadelphia (4-2, 2-1 away)
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Tampa Bay (1-4, 1-2 home)

The Buccaneers gutted out their first win of the season at home against the Bengals last week, but this week they face an even tougher task. The Eagles are the class of the NFC and coming off of a last-second loss to New Orleans last week, they are going to come out strong. Tampa’s defense has been inconsistent all year while the Eagles’ offense has been pretty damn consistent, thanks to the reliable play of my choice for first-half MVP, Donovan McNabb. I expect huge games out of him and Westbrook and a big win for the Eagles.

My Pick: Eagles rebound with a big win
SAFE PICK

Jacksonville (3-2, 0-2 away)
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Houston (1-4, 1-2 home)

I don’t care whether it’s Byron Leftwich, (who’s questionable with an ankle injury) or David Garrard (who’s nearly as good as Leftwich) at quarterback for the Jags; it won’t matter. Maurice Drew-Jones and Fred Taylor are going to run all over the field against the Texans, who are allowing over 145 rushing yards per game. I’m sure the passing game will make some contributions as well, but the running game will be more than enough to lift the Jaguars to victory on Sunday.

My Pick: Jaguars embarrass the Texans in Houston despite Leftwich’s injury
SAFE PICK

Denver (4-1, 1-1 away)
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Cleveland (1-4, 0-2 home)

I know the stats. The Broncos have only allowed one touchdown all year. The Browns’ offense is abysmal (11th in the AFC in passing and just ahead of the last ranked Texans in rushing). But I have a feeling this is going to be a close game. You can’t keep winning, like the Broncos have been, by sitting on the ball for half of the game. Eventually you need to make some plays in the passing game. Shannahan is showing no confidence in Jake Plummer right now, not that I blame him. But my question is: If you don’t trust your quarterback and you’ve killed his confidence, why do you continue to start him every week? If Plummer struggles on Sunday against Cleveland’s 9th ranked (AFC) pass defense, which I expect him to, we may see a quarterback change sometime over the next couple weeks. You can’t continue to waste the efforts of their defense like this and their offensive players, specifically Javon Walker, are miffed that they aren’t playing more aggressively and are limited by a mediocre quarterback. You have to think too that Rueben Droughns will be motivated to play well in this game against his former team. I’m not expecting an outstanding game from him, but something more than the 3.3 yards a carry he’s averaged so far this season. And Frye will find Braylon Edwards for a couple big gains. The Denver D can’t keep playing at this level forever…especially with no support from their offense. Tatum Bell will have a decent game, but the Broncos’ stagnant passing game will keep the game close and the Browns will have a shot at the upset here…

My Pick: The Broncos are finally punished for Plummer’s futility

Washington (2-4, 1-2 away)
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Indianapolis (5-0, 3-0 home)

I’m not sure if I have ever seen a shakier 5-0 team than this year’s Colts. While their pass defense is pretty solid, their run defense has been truly terrible, ranked last in the NFL with 166.8 rushing yards allowed per game. Trust me, Clinton Portis is salivating at the prospect of playing against them on Sunday. The Redskins have gotten away from the run during the last couple weeks, which other than their inconsistent defensive performances, has been the biggest factor in their struggles. As Clinton Portis goes, so do the ‘skins: Portis has had under 20 carries and 76 yards or less in all of their losses this year; in their only quality win, against the Jaguars, he had his only 100 yard game of the season and 26 carries. Last season, they won their last five games of the season; Portis had 23 carries or more and over 100 yards in all of them. Gibbs realizes that they need to get back to running the ball and they will run a lot on Sunday and run successfully. The Colts are too shaky a team to be 6-0 and the ‘skins are desperate right now…the perfect recipe for an upset.

My Pick: Washington rides Portis to an upset of Indy

Arizona (1-5, 0-2 away)
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Oakland (0-5, 0-2 home)

My initial feeling after the Monday night debacle was that the Cardinals would be too demoralized to go to Oakland and play well. But I really like Matt Leinart’s attitude. He took the loss very well despite the fact that he knows that he played well enough to win the game and it was taken away from him by awful coaching. He didn’t point any fingers even though some of his teammates made some egregious errors that contributed to the loss (*cough* Edgerrin James and the offensive line). He looks like a veteran leader and I’m sure that he will bounce back just fine. It will help, of course, to be playing the Raiders who are probably the worst NFL team that I have ever seen. I expect Leinart, Boldin and even James to have big games and to take out their frustrations on a team that doesn’t have the personnel to fight back.
Really Really Ridiculously Misleading Stat of the Week 2: The Raiders have allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL. I guess that’s what happens when you get blown out so badly that teams just run for half the game to kill the clock.

My Pick: Cardinals bounce back with a big win in Oakland

Minnesota (3-2, 1-1 away)
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Seattle (4-1, 2-0 home)

I could go on a long-winded rant explaining how the Seahawks have a gazillion good WRs and that their passing attack will probably be the most dangerous in the league once Shaun Alexander comes back and they actually have a running game. I could also tell you that Minnesota’s defense, while solid, will not be able to contain Seattle’s receivers…and that while the Rams were able to exploit the Seahawks’ secondary, the Vikings don’t have the weapons to do so. But really, the most important factor to consider here is this: Remember how I referred to Arrowhead as “one of the toughest places to play in all of football”? Well, Qwest Field IS the toughest place to play in all of football. Seattle is 2-0 at home this year, and they were undefeated there a year ago.

My Pick: Seahawks win easily at home
SAFE PICK

And that’s all she wrote…until my Monday Night pick…