Ready, Break!

As I am on break, and at home visiting my family for the weekend, I don’t have much time, so my analysis may not be as detailed as usual. Please bear with me…

Last Week: 10-4
(SAFE PICKS: 5-0)

Season: 50-24
(SAFE PICKS: 24-5)

New York Giants (2-2, 1-1 away)
at
Atlanta (3-1, 2-0 home)

While I do think that last week’s superb defensive showing against the Redskins may have been just an aberration brought on more by desperation than anything else, I don’t really see the Falcons capitalizing on what I see to be the real weak point of the Giants’ defense: their secondary. Let’s face it, Vick is not much of a passer and probably never will be. And this year the Falcons have decided to focus completely on running the ball. I think that the Giants will be able to hold their own against the Falcons’ rushing attack, and I think that Tiki Barber will build off of his success last week and have another solid game. The Falcons’ rush defense has been far too inconsistent this year (just as it was last year), leading me to believe that they are going to get burned for some huge plays if they play a talented back.

My Pick: Giants upset Atlanta

Buffalo (2-3, 1-2 away)
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Detroit (0-5, 0-2 home)

At first glance, this looks like a great opportunity for the Lions to pick up their first win. But thinking about it a little more, I realized that the Lions have been blown out by all of the teams with good defenses that they have played and have kept things close against the teams with awful defenses. I still think (despite the way they were manhandled by the Bears last week) that Buffalo’s defense is pretty solid. And let’s be honest, Detroit’s defense is pretty bad. I would be willing to disregard all of this, if I felt that the Lions were a desperate team, but I get the vibe that the majority of these guys just don’t care. I hate picking a team quarterbacked by J.P. Losman to win, but it looks I am forced to here…

My Pick: The Bills keep the Lions winless

Philadelphia (4-1, 2-0 away)
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New Orleans (4-1, 2-0 home)

The Eagles seem to be on the top of their game right now, but I expect there to be a bit of a letdown after their huge win against Dallas last week. I also think that the Saints, playing in the Super Dome, are a pretty tough team to beat. It’s going to be a close game, but my gut tells me that the Saints will pull it off.

My Pick: Saints pick up a huge a win at home

Tennessee (0-5, 0-3 away)
at
Washington (2-3, 1-1 home)

The Redskins lost in embarrassing fashion against the Giants last week…rest assured, they will take out their frustrations on the Titans. Tennessee played a close game against the Colts last week, but let’s be honest, it was only because Indianapolis was looking ahead, assuming that the victory would be handed to them. Bottom line: the ‘skins need this game, they’re playing at home and they will win easily.

My Pick: ‘skins win big
SAFE PICK

Miami (1-4, 0-3 away)
at
New York Jets (2-3, 0-2 home)

In the battle of mediocre AFC East teams with no running games, I’ll take the Jets. Well, they are at home. And Chad Pennington is a much stronger quarterback than Joey Harrington. I’ll be honest…I considered picking the upset here, but I’m not completely sold on Harrington being much better than Culpepper. He may prove me wrong, but I wouldn’t bet on it…

My Pick: Jets win against a familiar foe

San Diego (3-1, 1-1 away)
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San Francisco (2-3, 2-1 home)

In the battle of California (the Raiders don’t count), I’ll take the team with the better offense, defense and special teams. Game, set, match!

My Pick: Chargers roll on the road
SAFE PICK

Houston (1-3, 0-1 away)
at
Dallas (2-2, 1-0 home)

What does O-W-E-N-S spell? In my dictionary, it spells dysfunction. Owens’ complaints about his role in the offense during last week’s loss to the Eagles were mistimed and absurd. He was targeted far more than any other receiver on the field and gave up on an under-thrown pass and allowed it to be intercepted when he could have broken up the play. He then proceeded to get into a verbal spat with the receiving coach during the week. The Cowboys really should beat the Texans handily at home, but they seem to be reeling right now, and I can’t imagine that Bledsoe and Glenn are taking too kindly to Owens’ behavior and comments as of late. As for the Texans…everyone in the media keeps saying that Carr will have an awful game this week because he will “finally face a strong pass rush”. Um, didn’t he already play the Colts and Redskins this year? Last time I checked, they both have pretty strong pass rushes as well. And while his team lost both games, Carr played pretty well. Sure, he is still taking sacks this year, but he is also completing a lot of long passes to Andre Johnson. As the Cowboys have what I perceive to be a weak secondary, I expect that he will be able to do the same on Sunday. I know that the Texans have no defense to speak of, but I get the feeling that it might not matter this week. The Cowboys seem susceptible to an upset right now, and I think that it just might happen.

My Pick: Texans shock the Cowboys

Seattle (3-1, 1-1 away)
at
St. Louis (4-1, 2-0 home)

The Rams’ 4-1 record could not be more deceiving…If not for inexcusable fumbles by Brett Favre and Kurt Warner in the red zone during the last minute, they would be 2-3 right now. The Seahawks, even without a solid running game, will expose St. Louis as the middle-of-the-pack team that they are. Steven Jackson may lead the league in rushing yards but Seattle’s underrated run defense should change that on Sunday. And while the Rams’ defense is better than it has been in recent years, Matt Hasselbeck and Seattle’s never ending supply of solid receivers should be able to systematically tear their secondary apart. Would you expect anything less from the Seahawks after having an extra week to prepare for this game?

My Pick: Seattle wins easily
SAFE PICK

Cincinnati (3-1, 2-0 away)
at
Tampa Bay (0-4, 0-2 home)

I flirted with picking an upset in this game, but I just can’t see Marvin Lewis not properly preparing his team for this game. He has had an extra week to get them ready, and they have to be pretty embarrassed after their loss at home to the Patriots in their last game. I do think that Bruce Gradikowski and the Bucs will score some points and put up a fight, but they’re not going to beat an angry Bengals team that has had two weeks to prepare for them.

My Pick: The Bengals win on the road

Carolina (3-2, 1-1 away)
at
Baltimore (4-1, 2-0 home)

Let’s face it: Steve McNair, at this point in his career, isn’t much better than Kyle Boller. The Ravens’ defense may be the best in the AFC, but their offense is pretty stagnant, as they showed on Monday during their 13-3 loss to the Broncos. And as long as a washed-up Jamal Lewis is playing over Mike Anderson, they will continue to be without a consistent running game, to go along with their pedestrian passing game. This means that the Ravens’ defense will continue to spend more time on the field than they should, which will start to wear them out. If there’s one receiver that you don’t want to face when you’re starting to tire, it’s Steve Smith. He was quiet last week, but I get the feeling that he will make his presence felt on Sunday and help hand the Ravens their second straight setback.

My Pick: Panthers upset the offense-challenged Ravens

Kansas City (2-2, 1-1 away)
at
Pittsburgh (1-3, 1-1 home)

Sure, the Chiefs’ pass defense has been much improved this year but, at the risk of sounding cliché, it is do-or-die time for the Steelers and Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh will be a desperate team on Sunday, and, not to take anything away from the Chiefs, but I can’t see them losing this game.

My Pick: The Steelers get back on track
SAFE PICK

Oakland (0-4, 0-2 away)
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Denver (3-1, 2-0 home)

Let’s see…the worst offense in the league, on the road, against one of the better defenses in the league. I think that pretty much sums it up. Except for this: Disregard any positive plays that Plummer makes this week because the Raiders’ defense is almost as bad as their offense.

My Pick: Broncos win at home for the second time in seven days
SAFE PICK

Monday Night:
(I’m picking this one now since it is really obvious who is going to win so it doesn’t merit its own post)

Chicago (5-0, 2-0 away)
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Arizona (1-4, 1-2 home)

The Bears are playing better than any team in the league right now, and I think that they will continue to roll on Monday Night. It will be a long night for both Leinart and the Arizona defense…

My Pick: DA BEARS!
(Dennis Green better start looking for references…)
SAFE PICK

Alright, time to get back to being lazy and hanging out with the family…check back next week…