Wild Card Weekend

Everyone’s favorite sports blogger is back—just in time for the NFL playoffs. You can thank a stubborn tummy-ache and a lack of motivation to finish up my homework for my triumphant return to the blogosphere.

Let’s get things started with the NFC:

Washington Redskins (9-7)
at
Seattle Seahawks (10-6)

The momentum and motivation arguments alone seem like more than enough for me to justify picking the ‘skins here. If you’re still not convinced, consider Seattle’s lack of balance on offense, and the flaws in its defense. The Seahawks cannot run the ball effectively, and it will come back to haunt them in the playoffs, as this deficiency always does, regardless of the team or offensive system. And while Seattle has an exceptional group of linebackers, its secondary is quite suspect, as Chris Redman and the hapless Falcons showed us last week. These Seahawks are merely shadows of their former Super Bowl selves of two seasons ago. The Redskins, on the other hand, have a decent defense, a hard-hitting running game, a passing game that looks surprisingly solid as of late, and everything in the world to play for.

My Pick: Redskins advance to face the Cowboys
SAFE PICK

New York Giants (10-6)
at
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)

Based off of the Giants’ inspired performance against the Patriots last week, and their impressive 7-1 record on the road (tied with Dallas for the best mark in the NFC), this one should be a no-brainer, right? Not so fast. I’m willing to give the G-men a fighting chance in this one, as the Bucs are likely to be a bit out of sync after not playing their offensive starters for much of the last two games after clinching the division title. Still, despite Eli Manning’s success against the Patriots, he has looked awfully shaky during the second half of the season. Even with his inspired, four touchdown effort against New England, he has thrown ten touchdown passes and eleven interceptions over that span, and completed fewer than half of his passes in three of those games. It is also important to note that of the Giants’ seven road wins, only one came against a winning team, and that lone quality win, against the Redskins in Week 3, was more the result of Washington miscues than good play by New York. The Buccaneers aren’t a great team, but they are solid in every facet of the game, on offense, defense and special teams. Jeff Garcia is a more consistent quarterback than Eli Manning, and in a game between two teams with equally solid but not spectacular defenses and equally effective running games, the quarterback play will be the difference.

My Pick: The Bucs advance to play the Packers

And now, the AFC:

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5)
at
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

The Jaguars have the unfortunate luck to play in the same division as the Indianapolis Colts, and thus are forced to play on the road in the first week of the playoffs. Don’t let the seedings fool you however—this Jacksonville team is better than either of the division winners playing this weekend, and could make some serious noise in this postseason. The Steelers have teased us all year long, looking great at times (beating the Browns twice) and terrible at others (losing to the Cardinals). Roethlisberger has had perhaps his best season as a Steeler, but the defense has been inconsistent and the overall intensity level of the team has not been entirely reliable from week to week. The Jaguars, led by the vaunted running duo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, a smash-mouth defense (which held Big Ben to his least accurate passing game of the season) and emerging quarterback David Garrard, already demonstrated how to beat the Steelers in Week 15, and in the playoff rematch the Steelers will be without starting running back Willie Parker. The Steelers will need nothing less than divine intervention to win this game, and they already cashed in all of their help from God for the next decade when they won the Super Bowl two years ago.

My Pick: Jaguars move on, and get to play with the big boys
SAFE PICK

Tennessee Titans (10-6)
at
San Diego Chargers (11-5)

In my mind, Tennessee should not be playing right now. The Browns were a better team over the course of the season, and the Titans snuck into the playoffs only because they faced a Colts team that did not play its starters for the majority of the game. Did I mention that they still barely won the game against a group of backups? The Chargers, led by LaDanian Tomlinson, will manhandle the Titans in this game, but don’t be fooled—they’re not nearly as good a team as they will appear to be against this undeserving opponent.

My Pick: Chargers advance past a group of players and coaches that should be watching the game from their living rooms.
SAFE PICK

That’s all for now. Check back next week and I’ll post my next set of picks…I promise!