It’s Christmas Eve Eve, and I haven’t finished wrapping my Christmas presents yet…So, I’m going to make my weekly NFL segment short and sweet. (Blog entry on the Red Sox off-season (including the apparent second coming of Benedict Arnold) pending)
Last Week:
11-5 (Overall)
4-2 (Safe Picks…Yikes!! Although keep in mind the Texans needed to make it look real and Warner got knocked out for the season early in the game which pretty much killed the Cardinals’ chances with Houston actually trying to win. As for the Chiefs? I guess I overestimated their running defense and Tiki made me pay...)
Buffalo (4-10, 0-6 away) at Cincinnati (11-3, 5-2 home):
Merry Christmas, Rudi Johnson!! The Bills’ atrocious rush defense is waiting to be unwrapped…In the spirit of the season, save your man Chad a touchdown so we can see the reindeer act he’s been bragging about all week…
My Pick: Bengals in a laugher
My First SAFE PICK
Pittsburgh (9-5, 5-2 away) at Cleveland (5-9, 3-3 home):
The Browns will keep this one close but the Steelers have rediscovered their ground game and should be able to come out with a victory to keep pace with San Diego.
My Pick: Steelers
San Diego (9-5, 5-2 away) at Kansas City (8-6, 5-1 home):
Yes Woody Paige, I know the Chiefs haven’t lost at Arrowhead in December since your hair started turning gray. But, you know what? All streaks have to end sometime…
My Pick: Chargers keep pace with the Steelers
My Second SAFE PICK
San Francisco (2-12, 0-7 away) at St. Louis (5-9, 3-4 home):
It turns out the Rams are pretty awful. Lucky for them the 49ers are even worse. I can’t wait to see how the Texans let them beat them next week in the Reggie Bush Bowl…
My Pick: Rams
My Third SAFE PICK
Tennessee (4-10, 1-5 away) at Miami (7-7, 4-3 home):
Someway, somehow, Nick Saban is going to finish his first season with Miami over .500 after an abysmal start to the year. Watch out for these guys next year if they can find a consistent QB. (Ferrotte is not a long-term option)
My Pick: Dolphins
My fourth SAFE PICK
Detroit (4-10, 1-5 away) at New Orleans (3-11, 1-6 home):
The fact that this game exists and is being played on Christmas Eve should replace the lump of coal I’m expecting in my Christmas stocking as punishment from Santa. Personally I think I’d rather take the coal…
My Pick: Saints
Atlanta (8-6, 4-3 away) at Tampa Bay (9-5, 4-2 home):
Yes, the Bucs have always had Vick’s number since he came into the league. But….(read KC/San Diego blurb above)
My Pick: Falcons
My fifth SAFE PICK
New York Giants (10-4, 3-3 away) at Washington (8-6, 5-2 home):
Sure, the Giants destroyed the ‘skins last time they met…But that was a long time ago and Washington is playing with a sense of desperation that the G-men won’t be able to match…
My Pick: Redskins
Dallas (8-6, 3-4 away) at Carolina (10-4, 5-2 home):
Who knows what the Panthers are going to do these days…All I know is, Parcells should have his squad embarrassed and prepared…Plus Bledsoe alternates good and bad performances this season it seems…
My Pick: Cowboys
Jacksonville (10-4, 5-2 away) at Houston (2-12, 2-5 home):
Houston won one last week to make it look legit when they lose next week to San Francisco and get the draft rights to Reggie Bush. They’ll keep this as close as they can but make sure to lose it in the end…
My Pick: Jaguars
Philadelphia (6-8, 2-5 away) at Arizona (4-10, 2-5 home):
If the Cardinals can get a few decent throws out of one of their backup QBs they should be able to pull out the win here with their dynamic receiving duo…
My Pick: Cardinals
Oakland (4-10, 2-5 away) at Denver (11-3, 7-0 home):
Broncos roll over the dead-in-the-water Raiders…
My Pick: Broncos
Indianapolis (13-1, 7-0 away) at Seattle (12-2, 7-0 home):
My heart goes out to the Dungy family, who are dealing with an unimaginable tragedy right now. When something like this happens, it really puts things into perspective. Football is just a game and Tony Dungy’s family is his life. My best wishes are with you right now Tony Dungy, and I wish you and your family the happiest holidays possible under the circumstances. R.I.P. James Dungy…
My Pick: Seahawks (a meaningless game and a meaningless outcome)
Chicago (10-4, 3-3 away) at Green Bay (3-11, 2-4 home):
Favre still has a little bit of pride left and the Bears still can’t score on offense…
My Pick: Packers in the Christmas Day upset
Minnesota (8-6, 3-4 away) at Baltimore (5-9, 5-2 home):
The Ravens look like a potential spoiler but I think the Vikes have more heart than to let themselves be taken out of the playoff hunt here…I predict the Bears lose and next week Chicago-Minnesota will square off with the NFC North title on the line…
My Pick: Vikings
New England (9-5, 4-3 away) at New York Jets (3-11, 3-3 home):
Look for Tom Brady to add to his NFL-leading passing yards as the Pats should win big…
My Pick: Patriots
My sixth SAFE PICK
And now…time for some egg nog and procrastinated present wrapping…Merry Christmas everyone and look for a Red Sox entry here sometime next week…
Friday, December 23, 2005
Thursday, December 15, 2005
Pandemonic Parity
This Just In…
We now take a break from our regular scheduled programming of exams, papers and Labatt Blue to give you Benji’s Wild and Wacky Week 15 picks:
Last Week:
Overall: 12-4
Safe Picks: 6-0
The playoff picture is a mess in both conferences and after this week I expect even more chaos to ensue. A lot of teams are fighting for their playoff lives right now and I expect desperation to be a key factor in many of these match-ups; forget my wintry weather theory; forget home-field advantage; forget even playing for the history books. Let the madness begin!!
We’ll start with the Saturday games:
Tampa Bay (9-4, 5-2 away) at New England (8-5, 4-2 home):
The Patriots are finally starting to get healthy and they looked pretty impressive last week…Does this spell trouble for the rest of the league? Let’s not rate them as Super Bowl contenders again quite yet; they were playing the Bills. But it could spell trouble for the Buccaneers, who are traditionally bad in cold-weather games and should help me up my record in games I’ve picked bearing the “wintry weather theory” tag. Tampa Bay has also been consistently inconsistent lately; alternating good and bad performances. You never know quite what you’re going to get from them but I can’t see them beating the Pats in Foxboro after their inspired effort last week against the Panthers, if only because they can’t seem to put together two good games in a row…
My Pick: Patriots
My First SAFE PICK
Denver (10-3, 3-3 away) at Buffalo (4-9, 4-3 home):
Damn, I would love to pick an upset here but I just can’t justify it…The Broncos have played miserably on offense as of late and the Bills have picked up all 4 of their wins at home…but the Bills’ run defense (as I love to point out every week) is atrocious and their offense has been even worse than Denver’s. Losman is not the answer; the Bills need to do some QB shopping in the off-season. Maybe they should try to trade for Atlanta backup Matt Schuab?
My Pick: Broncos
Kansas City (8-5, 3-4 away) at New York Giants (9-4, 6-1 home):
Yes, the Chiefs are 3-4 on the road and the Giants are 6-1 at home. Yes the Giants’ defense has played very well during the second half of the year, especially at home, leading the NFC in turnover ratio at +11. But, I’m going to throw all the stats out the window and tell you what really needs to be examined here…Eli Manning is an inconsistent quarterback and has lately been making a lot of bad passes, nearly losing a game to the lowly Eagles last week by himself. Dr. Z (from Sports Illustrated) put it best in his most recent column:
“Why should we send Eli Manning to Cuba?”
“Because he could overthrow Castro!”
But let’s forget the jokes for a minute, as we know Dick Vermeil and the Chiefs will on Saturday. They are certainly taking this game very very seriously and I expect to see them play with an inspired sense of desperation and urgency that the Giants won’t be able to match. Trent Green (3,287 passing yards) and Larry Johnson (averaging 141 rushing yards in the last 6 games) are going to come through as they have all year and although I don’t expect the Giants to lay down and die, I can’t see them winning this one. In fact, I am so sure that I am going to make this pick a SAFE PICK as well.
My Pick: Chiefs pull off the upset and keep their playoff hopes alive…
My Second SAFE PICK
WHEW…You thought that was wild? You haven’t seen anything yet…On to the Sunday games…
Seattle (11-2, 4-2 away) at Tennessee (4-9, 3-4 home):
I could waste a bunch of time and space here babbling on about how the Titans might have a chance since they’re playing at home, where they’ve played decently this year and how Seattle, having clinched their division, may suffer a letdown but let’s be serious…The Seahawks still have a lot to play for as they need to keep winning to get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Titans? They only beat the Texans last week because they had the game intentionally handed to them (We’ll revisit this again a bit later). The real question is will this game be as lopsided as the Seahawks’ last two games?
My Pick: Seahawks
My Third SAFE PICK
San Diego (8-5, 4-2 away) at Indianapolis (13-0, 6-0 home):
Every analyst whose column I’ve read over the last few days has backed off picking an upset here. I guess I can see why; the Chargers’ effort last week against the Dolphins was hardly awe-inspiring. But we can all agree that if the Colts don’t lose this one, then nobody left on their regular season schedule is going to beat them. Despite the fact that everyone else who had joined me on the Chargers’ bandwagon has jumped off, I’m staying. Here’s what I know: The Colts have relied all year on having a balanced offense, rushing and passing. I expect Edgerrin James to be shut down this week by San Diego’s top ranked run defense (allowing under 80 rushing yards a game) forcing Peyton to air it up. And why is that a bad thing? Let me spell it out for you…Remember the last game that Indy played in which they had a realistic shot at losing? When they squared off against the Bengals in Cincinnati they found themselves in a shootout with a talented offensive team and Edgerrin James was held to 89 yards rushing. This forced Manning to have to win a shootout in a QB duel between him and Carson Palmer, and although he pulled out the victory in the 4th quarter when Palmer faltered, the Bengals were just on the cusp of taking control of that game, and would have if Manning hadn’t performed so brilliantly, throwing for 365 yards and playing mistake-free football down the stretch. The Chargers may not be as good a team as the Bengals and Drew Brees may not be as good a quarterback as Carson Palmer, but I expect the same type of firefight to ensue on Sunday. One thing that the Chargers have going for them is the desperation factor: If they lose this game then their season is essentially over. The Colts may be playing for history, but do they have enough fire left to beat a team on the verge of elimination who will stop at nothing to beat them? I may go down with the Chargers’ ship on this one, but I know this is going to be a competitive game regardless of what the analysts are saying and I know San Diego needs the victory to stay alive. This game will show me what kind of character this Colts team has and whether not they finally have what it takes to win it all or if they are destined for another season of underachievement…
My Pick: Chargers keep their season alive and prevent history from being made
Philadelphia (5-8, 1-5 away) at St. Louis (5-8, 3-3 home):
A battle of mediocrity…The Eagles did compete pretty well against the Giants last week but that was because Eli Manning tried to give the game away. I’ll take the Rams since they’re at home, and have their top two playmakers (Holt and Bruce) healthy.
My Pick: Rams
New York Jets (3-10, 0-7 away) at Miami (6-7, 3-3 home):
Ok, it’s official. The Jets now have nothing to win or lose for after their victory last week over the Raiders. They are awful, but not awful enough to be in the race for Reggie Bush. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have played pretty well lately, and pulled off that stunning upset over the Chargers last week. The Dolphins should be able to come out on top here, especially considering the Jets’ 0-7 mark on the road…
My Pick: Dolphins
Pittsburgh (8-5, 4-2 away) at Minnesota (8-5, 5-1 home):
The Vikings have put together quite the streak over the past month or so, winning six straight games and climbing to within a game of Chicago and the NFC North lead. It hasn’t always been pretty, but these Vikings have shown late-game poise uncharacteristic of Mike Tice’s teams, as they have won every close game that they have been in, always coming through down the stretch. They have pulled off this streak because of an improved running game (Moore and Bennett have been an effective tandem), solid if not spectacular quarterbacking from Brad Johnson (who won’t always win you the game but will never lose it for you) and a solid secondary led by safety Darren Sharper. The most important factor here though is that the Steelers need this game more than the Vikings do. With a loss, Minnesota is still in the hunt for a wildcard spot (or even the division title if another of my predictions plays out) but if the Steelers lose on Sunday, their season is finished. One would think that the Vikings are due to lose a game, and I think they won’t be able to stop Pittsburgh on Sunday, even if they are playing at home and haven’t lost there in what seems like years. I think the Steelers will find themselves playing their kind of game; a low scoring affair in which they will, rather than trying to attack the Vikings’ secondary with Rothlisberger’s injured throwing hand, pound the 17th ranked rush defense of the Vikes using a mix and match combination of Jerome Betis and Willie Parker and will come out on top.
My Pick: Steelers end the Vikings’ winning streak
My fourth SAFE PICK
Carolina (9-4, 4-2 away) at New Orleans (3-10, 1-5 home):
After the egg they laid last week against Tampa, I’m not sure what to expect from the Panthers. The Saints may come out with an inspired effort now that Jim Haslett has finally benched Aaron Brooks. Todd Bouman is not the most talented QB in the world but with the kind of WR playmakers this team has in Joe Horn and Donte Stall’worth he should be able to produce a few big plays. But, I think DeShaun Foster is going to have a huge game for the Panthers, as he is facing the Saints’ 29th ranked rushing defense, and that should prove to be the difference…
My Pick: Panthers
San Francisco (2-11, 0-6 away) at Jacksonville (9-4, 4-2 home):
I think that the 49ers are going to compete in this one. The Jaguars know that they can coast the rest of the way and it would be easy for them to look past this game. Still, they should be able to regain their footing down the stretch and hold on to win.
I could and probably would pick this upset if the 49ers had some semblance of a running or passing game and had a secondary that could hold opposing QBs under 300 yards consistently (Trent Dilfer and Kyle Orton don’t count).
My Pick: Jaguars avoid the upset
Arizona (4-9, 2-4 away) at Houston (1-12, 1-5 home):
Anybody who watched or saw highlights of the 4th quarter of the Texans/Titans game last week agrees with me: The Texans are giving games away; blatantly losing on purpose so they can get the #1 pick and Reggie Bush. I was saying this before last week’s game but Kris Brown’s last second 30 yard FG attempt, that would have tied the game, confirmed it for me. It missed not only the uprights but also the net in back of the uprights. It was kicked so low that it looked like he kicked a soccer ball on goal and toe-balled it. This coming from a kicker who over the course of his entire career before this game had missed only one kick from 30 yards away or closer and the one he missed was blocked! The Texans seriously need to be careful or the league may investigate…They shouldn’t have any trouble losing this game though. Their 25th ranked passing defense is perfectly designed for the Cardinals to tear apart with their potent aerial attack.
My Pick: Cardinals should blow out the Texans
My fifth SAFE PICK
Cincinnati (10-3, 5-1 away) at Detroit (4-9, 3-4 home):
The Bengals and Carson Palmer, after nearly losing to Cleveland should look much sharper against the Lions this week, and won’t be looking past this game. And really, the Lions are pretty awful. They can’t stop anyone; not even the Packers. And have they tried looking at a third option at QB? Neither Garcia or Harrington can throw the ball anymore (I’m not sure Harrington ever could).
My Pick: Bengals
My sixth SAFE PICK
Cleveland (4-9, 1-6 away) at Oakland (4-9, 2-4 home):
Sure Cleveland is only 1-6 on the road, but as the season has progressed, the Raiders have gotten worse while the Browns seem much improved, especially after the QB switch from Trent Dilfer to rookie Charlie Frye. Cleveland nearly beat the Bengals last week, while the Raiders lost embarrassingly to an absolutely abysmal Jets team. Romeo Crenel is making a lot of progress with this team and they may be competing for a playoff spot come this time next year…
My Pick: Browns
Dallas (8-5, 3-3 away) at Washington (7-6, 4-2 home):
These two teams are very evenly matched. They both have had inconsistent QB play throughout the season and both rely heavily on defense and special teams to win games. However, the Redskins have much more to lose in this game as they can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye with a loss. I think the Cowboys are likely the better team, if only because they have a better coach in Bill Parcells, but I can’t see them stealing this one on the road from a Washington team that is playing with a hunger fueled by desperation.
My Pick: Redskins
Atlanta (8-5, 4-2 away) at Chicago (9-4, 6-1 home):
I’ve said it before; I’ll say it again: The Bears are overrated!! Yes their defense is likely the best in the league, but at some point to win in the NFL you need to do something on offense (Please don’t bring up the Ravens’ argument because let me remind you that they had Jamal Lewis (in his prime) and Shannon Sharpe). Kyle Orton is the worst rated QB in the league, and has thrown for 200 yards or more twice in 15 games. You can expect little to nothing from this team on offense; they rely completely on their defense and special teams to win games for them. This game will be, as all Bears’ games end up being, a low-scoring affair. I think Jim Mora will take note though of how the Steelers counteracted the Bears’ quickness up front by giving more carries to power back Jerome Betis with great results. Expect the Falcons to try to do the same thing by giving more carries to their power back T.J Duckett. I know I have ridden my “wintry weather theory” for much of this year but I’m abandoning it for this game. The Falcons and ailing QB Michael Vick probably won’t be able to get too much done through the air up in snowy Chicago but I expect them to be able to grind out just enough points on the scoreboard to come out on top. The Bears can’t win every close game can they? And the Falcons obviously need this game far more than Chicago does as they are in a fierce race for a wildcard spot at the moment…
My Pick: Falcons make a statement in their bid for a wildcard spot
Finally we arrive at the Monday Night game…(unfortunately)
Green Bay (3-10, 1-6 away) at Baltimore (4-9, 4-2 home):
Why does it seem like all of the Monday Night match-ups suck? Who wants to watch Kyle Boller and Brett Favre compete to see who can throw the most interceptions? I know I don’t…I’ll take the Pack here just because they are coming off a victory last week against the Lions but it also wouldn’t surprise me if the game ended on an errant Favre pass being taken back for a touchdown.
My Pick: Packers…I guess…I have to pick somebody…
We now take a break from our regular scheduled programming of exams, papers and Labatt Blue to give you Benji’s Wild and Wacky Week 15 picks:
Last Week:
Overall: 12-4
Safe Picks: 6-0
The playoff picture is a mess in both conferences and after this week I expect even more chaos to ensue. A lot of teams are fighting for their playoff lives right now and I expect desperation to be a key factor in many of these match-ups; forget my wintry weather theory; forget home-field advantage; forget even playing for the history books. Let the madness begin!!
We’ll start with the Saturday games:
Tampa Bay (9-4, 5-2 away) at New England (8-5, 4-2 home):
The Patriots are finally starting to get healthy and they looked pretty impressive last week…Does this spell trouble for the rest of the league? Let’s not rate them as Super Bowl contenders again quite yet; they were playing the Bills. But it could spell trouble for the Buccaneers, who are traditionally bad in cold-weather games and should help me up my record in games I’ve picked bearing the “wintry weather theory” tag. Tampa Bay has also been consistently inconsistent lately; alternating good and bad performances. You never know quite what you’re going to get from them but I can’t see them beating the Pats in Foxboro after their inspired effort last week against the Panthers, if only because they can’t seem to put together two good games in a row…
My Pick: Patriots
My First SAFE PICK
Denver (10-3, 3-3 away) at Buffalo (4-9, 4-3 home):
Damn, I would love to pick an upset here but I just can’t justify it…The Broncos have played miserably on offense as of late and the Bills have picked up all 4 of their wins at home…but the Bills’ run defense (as I love to point out every week) is atrocious and their offense has been even worse than Denver’s. Losman is not the answer; the Bills need to do some QB shopping in the off-season. Maybe they should try to trade for Atlanta backup Matt Schuab?
My Pick: Broncos
Kansas City (8-5, 3-4 away) at New York Giants (9-4, 6-1 home):
Yes, the Chiefs are 3-4 on the road and the Giants are 6-1 at home. Yes the Giants’ defense has played very well during the second half of the year, especially at home, leading the NFC in turnover ratio at +11. But, I’m going to throw all the stats out the window and tell you what really needs to be examined here…Eli Manning is an inconsistent quarterback and has lately been making a lot of bad passes, nearly losing a game to the lowly Eagles last week by himself. Dr. Z (from Sports Illustrated) put it best in his most recent column:
“Why should we send Eli Manning to Cuba?”
“Because he could overthrow Castro!”
But let’s forget the jokes for a minute, as we know Dick Vermeil and the Chiefs will on Saturday. They are certainly taking this game very very seriously and I expect to see them play with an inspired sense of desperation and urgency that the Giants won’t be able to match. Trent Green (3,287 passing yards) and Larry Johnson (averaging 141 rushing yards in the last 6 games) are going to come through as they have all year and although I don’t expect the Giants to lay down and die, I can’t see them winning this one. In fact, I am so sure that I am going to make this pick a SAFE PICK as well.
My Pick: Chiefs pull off the upset and keep their playoff hopes alive…
My Second SAFE PICK
WHEW…You thought that was wild? You haven’t seen anything yet…On to the Sunday games…
Seattle (11-2, 4-2 away) at Tennessee (4-9, 3-4 home):
I could waste a bunch of time and space here babbling on about how the Titans might have a chance since they’re playing at home, where they’ve played decently this year and how Seattle, having clinched their division, may suffer a letdown but let’s be serious…The Seahawks still have a lot to play for as they need to keep winning to get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Titans? They only beat the Texans last week because they had the game intentionally handed to them (We’ll revisit this again a bit later). The real question is will this game be as lopsided as the Seahawks’ last two games?
My Pick: Seahawks
My Third SAFE PICK
San Diego (8-5, 4-2 away) at Indianapolis (13-0, 6-0 home):
Every analyst whose column I’ve read over the last few days has backed off picking an upset here. I guess I can see why; the Chargers’ effort last week against the Dolphins was hardly awe-inspiring. But we can all agree that if the Colts don’t lose this one, then nobody left on their regular season schedule is going to beat them. Despite the fact that everyone else who had joined me on the Chargers’ bandwagon has jumped off, I’m staying. Here’s what I know: The Colts have relied all year on having a balanced offense, rushing and passing. I expect Edgerrin James to be shut down this week by San Diego’s top ranked run defense (allowing under 80 rushing yards a game) forcing Peyton to air it up. And why is that a bad thing? Let me spell it out for you…Remember the last game that Indy played in which they had a realistic shot at losing? When they squared off against the Bengals in Cincinnati they found themselves in a shootout with a talented offensive team and Edgerrin James was held to 89 yards rushing. This forced Manning to have to win a shootout in a QB duel between him and Carson Palmer, and although he pulled out the victory in the 4th quarter when Palmer faltered, the Bengals were just on the cusp of taking control of that game, and would have if Manning hadn’t performed so brilliantly, throwing for 365 yards and playing mistake-free football down the stretch. The Chargers may not be as good a team as the Bengals and Drew Brees may not be as good a quarterback as Carson Palmer, but I expect the same type of firefight to ensue on Sunday. One thing that the Chargers have going for them is the desperation factor: If they lose this game then their season is essentially over. The Colts may be playing for history, but do they have enough fire left to beat a team on the verge of elimination who will stop at nothing to beat them? I may go down with the Chargers’ ship on this one, but I know this is going to be a competitive game regardless of what the analysts are saying and I know San Diego needs the victory to stay alive. This game will show me what kind of character this Colts team has and whether not they finally have what it takes to win it all or if they are destined for another season of underachievement…
My Pick: Chargers keep their season alive and prevent history from being made
Philadelphia (5-8, 1-5 away) at St. Louis (5-8, 3-3 home):
A battle of mediocrity…The Eagles did compete pretty well against the Giants last week but that was because Eli Manning tried to give the game away. I’ll take the Rams since they’re at home, and have their top two playmakers (Holt and Bruce) healthy.
My Pick: Rams
New York Jets (3-10, 0-7 away) at Miami (6-7, 3-3 home):
Ok, it’s official. The Jets now have nothing to win or lose for after their victory last week over the Raiders. They are awful, but not awful enough to be in the race for Reggie Bush. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have played pretty well lately, and pulled off that stunning upset over the Chargers last week. The Dolphins should be able to come out on top here, especially considering the Jets’ 0-7 mark on the road…
My Pick: Dolphins
Pittsburgh (8-5, 4-2 away) at Minnesota (8-5, 5-1 home):
The Vikings have put together quite the streak over the past month or so, winning six straight games and climbing to within a game of Chicago and the NFC North lead. It hasn’t always been pretty, but these Vikings have shown late-game poise uncharacteristic of Mike Tice’s teams, as they have won every close game that they have been in, always coming through down the stretch. They have pulled off this streak because of an improved running game (Moore and Bennett have been an effective tandem), solid if not spectacular quarterbacking from Brad Johnson (who won’t always win you the game but will never lose it for you) and a solid secondary led by safety Darren Sharper. The most important factor here though is that the Steelers need this game more than the Vikings do. With a loss, Minnesota is still in the hunt for a wildcard spot (or even the division title if another of my predictions plays out) but if the Steelers lose on Sunday, their season is finished. One would think that the Vikings are due to lose a game, and I think they won’t be able to stop Pittsburgh on Sunday, even if they are playing at home and haven’t lost there in what seems like years. I think the Steelers will find themselves playing their kind of game; a low scoring affair in which they will, rather than trying to attack the Vikings’ secondary with Rothlisberger’s injured throwing hand, pound the 17th ranked rush defense of the Vikes using a mix and match combination of Jerome Betis and Willie Parker and will come out on top.
My Pick: Steelers end the Vikings’ winning streak
My fourth SAFE PICK
Carolina (9-4, 4-2 away) at New Orleans (3-10, 1-5 home):
After the egg they laid last week against Tampa, I’m not sure what to expect from the Panthers. The Saints may come out with an inspired effort now that Jim Haslett has finally benched Aaron Brooks. Todd Bouman is not the most talented QB in the world but with the kind of WR playmakers this team has in Joe Horn and Donte Stall’worth he should be able to produce a few big plays. But, I think DeShaun Foster is going to have a huge game for the Panthers, as he is facing the Saints’ 29th ranked rushing defense, and that should prove to be the difference…
My Pick: Panthers
San Francisco (2-11, 0-6 away) at Jacksonville (9-4, 4-2 home):
I think that the 49ers are going to compete in this one. The Jaguars know that they can coast the rest of the way and it would be easy for them to look past this game. Still, they should be able to regain their footing down the stretch and hold on to win.
I could and probably would pick this upset if the 49ers had some semblance of a running or passing game and had a secondary that could hold opposing QBs under 300 yards consistently (Trent Dilfer and Kyle Orton don’t count).
My Pick: Jaguars avoid the upset
Arizona (4-9, 2-4 away) at Houston (1-12, 1-5 home):
Anybody who watched or saw highlights of the 4th quarter of the Texans/Titans game last week agrees with me: The Texans are giving games away; blatantly losing on purpose so they can get the #1 pick and Reggie Bush. I was saying this before last week’s game but Kris Brown’s last second 30 yard FG attempt, that would have tied the game, confirmed it for me. It missed not only the uprights but also the net in back of the uprights. It was kicked so low that it looked like he kicked a soccer ball on goal and toe-balled it. This coming from a kicker who over the course of his entire career before this game had missed only one kick from 30 yards away or closer and the one he missed was blocked! The Texans seriously need to be careful or the league may investigate…They shouldn’t have any trouble losing this game though. Their 25th ranked passing defense is perfectly designed for the Cardinals to tear apart with their potent aerial attack.
My Pick: Cardinals should blow out the Texans
My fifth SAFE PICK
Cincinnati (10-3, 5-1 away) at Detroit (4-9, 3-4 home):
The Bengals and Carson Palmer, after nearly losing to Cleveland should look much sharper against the Lions this week, and won’t be looking past this game. And really, the Lions are pretty awful. They can’t stop anyone; not even the Packers. And have they tried looking at a third option at QB? Neither Garcia or Harrington can throw the ball anymore (I’m not sure Harrington ever could).
My Pick: Bengals
My sixth SAFE PICK
Cleveland (4-9, 1-6 away) at Oakland (4-9, 2-4 home):
Sure Cleveland is only 1-6 on the road, but as the season has progressed, the Raiders have gotten worse while the Browns seem much improved, especially after the QB switch from Trent Dilfer to rookie Charlie Frye. Cleveland nearly beat the Bengals last week, while the Raiders lost embarrassingly to an absolutely abysmal Jets team. Romeo Crenel is making a lot of progress with this team and they may be competing for a playoff spot come this time next year…
My Pick: Browns
Dallas (8-5, 3-3 away) at Washington (7-6, 4-2 home):
These two teams are very evenly matched. They both have had inconsistent QB play throughout the season and both rely heavily on defense and special teams to win games. However, the Redskins have much more to lose in this game as they can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye with a loss. I think the Cowboys are likely the better team, if only because they have a better coach in Bill Parcells, but I can’t see them stealing this one on the road from a Washington team that is playing with a hunger fueled by desperation.
My Pick: Redskins
Atlanta (8-5, 4-2 away) at Chicago (9-4, 6-1 home):
I’ve said it before; I’ll say it again: The Bears are overrated!! Yes their defense is likely the best in the league, but at some point to win in the NFL you need to do something on offense (Please don’t bring up the Ravens’ argument because let me remind you that they had Jamal Lewis (in his prime) and Shannon Sharpe). Kyle Orton is the worst rated QB in the league, and has thrown for 200 yards or more twice in 15 games. You can expect little to nothing from this team on offense; they rely completely on their defense and special teams to win games for them. This game will be, as all Bears’ games end up being, a low-scoring affair. I think Jim Mora will take note though of how the Steelers counteracted the Bears’ quickness up front by giving more carries to power back Jerome Betis with great results. Expect the Falcons to try to do the same thing by giving more carries to their power back T.J Duckett. I know I have ridden my “wintry weather theory” for much of this year but I’m abandoning it for this game. The Falcons and ailing QB Michael Vick probably won’t be able to get too much done through the air up in snowy Chicago but I expect them to be able to grind out just enough points on the scoreboard to come out on top. The Bears can’t win every close game can they? And the Falcons obviously need this game far more than Chicago does as they are in a fierce race for a wildcard spot at the moment…
My Pick: Falcons make a statement in their bid for a wildcard spot
Finally we arrive at the Monday Night game…(unfortunately)
Green Bay (3-10, 1-6 away) at Baltimore (4-9, 4-2 home):
Why does it seem like all of the Monday Night match-ups suck? Who wants to watch Kyle Boller and Brett Favre compete to see who can throw the most interceptions? I know I don’t…I’ll take the Pack here just because they are coming off a victory last week against the Lions but it also wouldn’t surprise me if the game ended on an errant Favre pass being taken back for a touchdown.
My Pick: Packers…I guess…I have to pick somebody…
Friday, December 09, 2005
A Neutering Negated...
Last Week:
13-3 (overall)
4-0 (safe picks)
That second number is a bit deceiving as most of you reading this are aware. The pick that I deemed to be the safest (and gambled the fate of my manhood on) was Miami beating Buffalo. As you all know, the Bills and the second-worst quarterback in the league (QB rating-wise), J.P. Losman, ran out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter against a Dolphins defense still nursing their hangovers from a long night of partying in Miami Beach. Once they woke up, the Bills couldn’t even get a sniff of field goal range, let alone the end zone, but the damage had already been done and it looked like I was going to be singing soprano for the rest of my life. Miami couldn’t get anything done through the air and went into the 4th quarter down 23-3. My balls were as good as busted…But, backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels (who came in after starter Gus Ferrotte got knocked out of the game in the 3rd quarter) re-ignited the Dolphins offense, throwing for nearly 300 yards in less than a half, culminating in a 4th and goal touchdown catch by Chris Chambers that rallied Miami to the 24-23 victory, and thus my manhood lives on…barely. Anyway, let’s get to this week’s picks:
New England (7-5, 3-3 away) at Buffalo (4-8, 4-2 home):
Buffalo is a tough place to play this time of the year, but unfortunately for the Bills, The Patriots will be quite comfortable in the winter environment (unlike the Panthers 2 weeks ago). Plus, I expect Buffalo to be a bit demoralized after blowing a 23-3 lead to the Dolphins last week. Expect a good day (as usual) from Brady, and a finally healthy Corey Dillon to tear up the Bills’ 31st ranked run defense.
My Pick: Patriots
My First Safe Pick Of The Week (sorry, I’m not wagering my balls this time)
Cleveland (4-8, 1-5 away) at Cincinnati (9-3, 4-2 home):
The Bengals made a huge statement last week; they beat the Steelers on the road and are pretty much on cruise control in the division race. Now, they return home to face the Browns and look to continue their crazy scoring spree. This could get ugly…
My Pick: Bengals
My Second Safe Pick Of The Week
Houston (1-11, 0-6 away) at Tennessee (3-9, 2-4 home):
If the Texans are going to win another game this year, this looks like it would be it. At this point though it is in their best interest to keep losing. Maybe drafting Reggie Bush can revitalize this franchise?
My Pick: Titans
St. Louis (5-7, 2-4 away) at Minnesota (7-5, 4-1 home):
The Rams are only 2-4 on the road and are starting a rookie at QB against a solid Vikings secondary. I expect the Vikes to keep on rolling their way towards a playoff berth. No one is taking this team very seriously but they have a great shot at a wildcard berth thanks to a weak second half schedule…
My Pick: Vikings
My Third Safe Pick Of The Week
Oakland (4-8, 2-4 away) at New York Jets (2-10, 2-3 home):
In a game between two struggling teams, I’ll go with the one with some semblance of offensive talent. If the Jets couldn’t beat the Saints at home, I find it hard to believe that they can beat anyone…even with potential “wintry weather” on their side.
My Pick: Raiders
Chicago (9-3, 3-2 away) at Pittsburgh (7-5, 3-3 home):
The Steelers’ backs are against the wall; a loss this week and their season is essentially over. I expect an inspired effort from their offensive line (which has underperformed as of late) and thus the return of the effective ground game that they have missed in recent weeks. I also feel that Chicago is due to lose a game…
My Pick: Steelers
Tampa Bay (8-4, 4-2 away) at Carolina (9-3, 5-1 home):
Before last week, I was skeptical about the Panthers’ running game but against the Falcons the recently promoted Deshaun Foster eased my doubts by tearing up Atlanta’s defense on the ground to the tune of 131 yards on 24 carries. They also impressed me with the ease with which they shut down Michael Vick both on the ground and through the air. Expect more of the same against the Bucs at home (who could barely beat the Saints) as the Panthers continue to make their case for being the best team in the NFC…The question is can they stop Shaun Alexander and the Seahawks in Seattle come playoff time?
My Pick: Panthers
Indianapolis (12-0, 6-0 away) at Jacksonville (9-3, 4-1 home):
It seems as though every analyst thinks this could be an upset win by the Jags but they are scared to pick it so they are just taking the middle road and saying that it will be a close game. I disagree. I think the Colts will win this one fairly easily as David Garrard really has yet to prove anything to me other than that he can beat the Cleveland Browns and I’m not sure Jacksonville’s D is as good as they appear to be statistically(5th in the league). They seem to have a habit of letting every team they play back into the game in the 4th quarter…
My Pick: Colts
My Fourth Safe Pick Of The Week
New York Giants (8-4, 2-3 away) at Philadelphia (5-7, 4-2 home):
The Giants took control of the division with their victory over Dallas last week and this game should be a bit of a relief for them after two tough games in a row. Unless L.J. Smith can find a way to, by himself, take on all of the roles of his injured compatriots and throw, run and catch at an ALL-Pro level, the Eagles don’t stand a chance…
My Pick: Giants
Washington (6-6, 2-4 away) at Arizona (4-8, 2-4 home):
The Redskins dispatched Kurt Warner’s former mediocre team last week; expect them to take care of his current mediocre team this week, even on the road. The ‘skins aren’t out of the hunt yet…Portis and Cartright each rushed for over 100 yards against the Rams last week and I expect another good game on the ground, facing the 19th ranked rush defense of the Cardinals. Warner will probably put up good numbers again this week, but expect the Redskins to hold him out of the endzone for the most part as they have much more to play for, and are far from out in the NFC wildcard race...
My Pick: Redskins
San Francisco (2-10, 0-5 away) at Seattle (10-2, 6-0 home):
I’m going to have to go out on a limb here and say that I don’t expect any Seahawk starters to still be in the game by the time the 4th quarter rolls around…
My Pick: Seahawks in another laugher
For the hell of it, let’s add a 5th safe pick this week
Kansas City (8-4, 3-3 away) at Dallas (7-5, 4-2 home):
The game may be in Dallas and the Cowboys may have a solid defense (6th in the league) but I’m not convinced that the Chiefs’ offense can be stopped by any defense short of the Bears the way they played last week against Denver. Plus Bledsoe has looked absolutely awful as of late…
My Pick: Chiefs pull of the upset
Baltimore (4-8, 0-6 away) at Denver (9-3, 6-0 home):
This one looks to be another no-brainer. The Broncos will take care of business at home and stay one game up in the division race…
My Pick: Broncos
I guess we can add a 6th safe pick…this one’s too obvious to ignore as well.
Miami (5-7, 2-4 away) at San Diego (8-4, 4-2 home):
Sage Rosenfels looked pretty good last week (as previously mentioned) and I expect him to have another big week passing the ball. However, at home I don’t think that the Chargers’ offense can be stopped by anyone…
My Pick: Chargers in a shootout
Detroit (4-8, 1-4 away) at Green Bay (2-10, 1-4 home):
If Brett Favre and the Pack are going to win another game this year than this would be it. The Lions, no matter who is starting at QB, are awful…
My Pick: Packers
New Orleans (3-9, 2-4 away) at Atlanta (7-5, 3-3 home):
This Monday night match-up looks on paper to be pretty one-sided. I have a feeling that it’s going to be closer than people expect though as the Saints tend to compete in games that they have no business being in. I for-see a big day from Aaron Brooks and Joe Horn, but I think in the end, Michael Vick and the Falcons will hold on for the victory and keep pace for a wild card spot…
My Pick: Falcons in a surprisingly close game
13-3 (overall)
4-0 (safe picks)
That second number is a bit deceiving as most of you reading this are aware. The pick that I deemed to be the safest (and gambled the fate of my manhood on) was Miami beating Buffalo. As you all know, the Bills and the second-worst quarterback in the league (QB rating-wise), J.P. Losman, ran out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter against a Dolphins defense still nursing their hangovers from a long night of partying in Miami Beach. Once they woke up, the Bills couldn’t even get a sniff of field goal range, let alone the end zone, but the damage had already been done and it looked like I was going to be singing soprano for the rest of my life. Miami couldn’t get anything done through the air and went into the 4th quarter down 23-3. My balls were as good as busted…But, backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels (who came in after starter Gus Ferrotte got knocked out of the game in the 3rd quarter) re-ignited the Dolphins offense, throwing for nearly 300 yards in less than a half, culminating in a 4th and goal touchdown catch by Chris Chambers that rallied Miami to the 24-23 victory, and thus my manhood lives on…barely. Anyway, let’s get to this week’s picks:
New England (7-5, 3-3 away) at Buffalo (4-8, 4-2 home):
Buffalo is a tough place to play this time of the year, but unfortunately for the Bills, The Patriots will be quite comfortable in the winter environment (unlike the Panthers 2 weeks ago). Plus, I expect Buffalo to be a bit demoralized after blowing a 23-3 lead to the Dolphins last week. Expect a good day (as usual) from Brady, and a finally healthy Corey Dillon to tear up the Bills’ 31st ranked run defense.
My Pick: Patriots
My First Safe Pick Of The Week (sorry, I’m not wagering my balls this time)
Cleveland (4-8, 1-5 away) at Cincinnati (9-3, 4-2 home):
The Bengals made a huge statement last week; they beat the Steelers on the road and are pretty much on cruise control in the division race. Now, they return home to face the Browns and look to continue their crazy scoring spree. This could get ugly…
My Pick: Bengals
My Second Safe Pick Of The Week
Houston (1-11, 0-6 away) at Tennessee (3-9, 2-4 home):
If the Texans are going to win another game this year, this looks like it would be it. At this point though it is in their best interest to keep losing. Maybe drafting Reggie Bush can revitalize this franchise?
My Pick: Titans
St. Louis (5-7, 2-4 away) at Minnesota (7-5, 4-1 home):
The Rams are only 2-4 on the road and are starting a rookie at QB against a solid Vikings secondary. I expect the Vikes to keep on rolling their way towards a playoff berth. No one is taking this team very seriously but they have a great shot at a wildcard berth thanks to a weak second half schedule…
My Pick: Vikings
My Third Safe Pick Of The Week
Oakland (4-8, 2-4 away) at New York Jets (2-10, 2-3 home):
In a game between two struggling teams, I’ll go with the one with some semblance of offensive talent. If the Jets couldn’t beat the Saints at home, I find it hard to believe that they can beat anyone…even with potential “wintry weather” on their side.
My Pick: Raiders
Chicago (9-3, 3-2 away) at Pittsburgh (7-5, 3-3 home):
The Steelers’ backs are against the wall; a loss this week and their season is essentially over. I expect an inspired effort from their offensive line (which has underperformed as of late) and thus the return of the effective ground game that they have missed in recent weeks. I also feel that Chicago is due to lose a game…
My Pick: Steelers
Tampa Bay (8-4, 4-2 away) at Carolina (9-3, 5-1 home):
Before last week, I was skeptical about the Panthers’ running game but against the Falcons the recently promoted Deshaun Foster eased my doubts by tearing up Atlanta’s defense on the ground to the tune of 131 yards on 24 carries. They also impressed me with the ease with which they shut down Michael Vick both on the ground and through the air. Expect more of the same against the Bucs at home (who could barely beat the Saints) as the Panthers continue to make their case for being the best team in the NFC…The question is can they stop Shaun Alexander and the Seahawks in Seattle come playoff time?
My Pick: Panthers
Indianapolis (12-0, 6-0 away) at Jacksonville (9-3, 4-1 home):
It seems as though every analyst thinks this could be an upset win by the Jags but they are scared to pick it so they are just taking the middle road and saying that it will be a close game. I disagree. I think the Colts will win this one fairly easily as David Garrard really has yet to prove anything to me other than that he can beat the Cleveland Browns and I’m not sure Jacksonville’s D is as good as they appear to be statistically(5th in the league). They seem to have a habit of letting every team they play back into the game in the 4th quarter…
My Pick: Colts
My Fourth Safe Pick Of The Week
New York Giants (8-4, 2-3 away) at Philadelphia (5-7, 4-2 home):
The Giants took control of the division with their victory over Dallas last week and this game should be a bit of a relief for them after two tough games in a row. Unless L.J. Smith can find a way to, by himself, take on all of the roles of his injured compatriots and throw, run and catch at an ALL-Pro level, the Eagles don’t stand a chance…
My Pick: Giants
Washington (6-6, 2-4 away) at Arizona (4-8, 2-4 home):
The Redskins dispatched Kurt Warner’s former mediocre team last week; expect them to take care of his current mediocre team this week, even on the road. The ‘skins aren’t out of the hunt yet…Portis and Cartright each rushed for over 100 yards against the Rams last week and I expect another good game on the ground, facing the 19th ranked rush defense of the Cardinals. Warner will probably put up good numbers again this week, but expect the Redskins to hold him out of the endzone for the most part as they have much more to play for, and are far from out in the NFC wildcard race...
My Pick: Redskins
San Francisco (2-10, 0-5 away) at Seattle (10-2, 6-0 home):
I’m going to have to go out on a limb here and say that I don’t expect any Seahawk starters to still be in the game by the time the 4th quarter rolls around…
My Pick: Seahawks in another laugher
For the hell of it, let’s add a 5th safe pick this week
Kansas City (8-4, 3-3 away) at Dallas (7-5, 4-2 home):
The game may be in Dallas and the Cowboys may have a solid defense (6th in the league) but I’m not convinced that the Chiefs’ offense can be stopped by any defense short of the Bears the way they played last week against Denver. Plus Bledsoe has looked absolutely awful as of late…
My Pick: Chiefs pull of the upset
Baltimore (4-8, 0-6 away) at Denver (9-3, 6-0 home):
This one looks to be another no-brainer. The Broncos will take care of business at home and stay one game up in the division race…
My Pick: Broncos
I guess we can add a 6th safe pick…this one’s too obvious to ignore as well.
Miami (5-7, 2-4 away) at San Diego (8-4, 4-2 home):
Sage Rosenfels looked pretty good last week (as previously mentioned) and I expect him to have another big week passing the ball. However, at home I don’t think that the Chargers’ offense can be stopped by anyone…
My Pick: Chargers in a shootout
Detroit (4-8, 1-4 away) at Green Bay (2-10, 1-4 home):
If Brett Favre and the Pack are going to win another game this year than this would be it. The Lions, no matter who is starting at QB, are awful…
My Pick: Packers
New Orleans (3-9, 2-4 away) at Atlanta (7-5, 3-3 home):
This Monday night match-up looks on paper to be pretty one-sided. I have a feeling that it’s going to be closer than people expect though as the Saints tend to compete in games that they have no business being in. I for-see a big day from Aaron Brooks and Joe Horn, but I think in the end, Michael Vick and the Falcons will hold on for the victory and keep pace for a wild card spot…
My Pick: Falcons in a surprisingly close game
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