Only time will tell if I am as reliable at predicting the results of football games as I am at picking winners for baseball…
My Picks For Week 8:
Cleveland (2-4) at Houston (0-6)
Its been a long time since I’ve seen a pro matchup this bad. Both teams rank in the bottom of the NFL in both defense and offense. Houston ranks dead last in total offense, but they have to win a game sometime. There’s no way that the Browns move to 3-4 with a team that would get blown out by either USC or Notre Dame.
My Pick: Texans in a game that no one will be watching
Jacksonville (4-2) at St. Louis (3-4)
The Rams are well-known for their tendency to look absolutely dreadful on the road but dominate at home. However, they are not the “Greatest Show On Turf” that they once were. They are playing without their coach or their quarterback against a Jaguar defense that ranks second in the AFC.
My Pick: Jaguars
Arizona (2-4) at Dallas (4-3)
A young un-tested quarterback(Josh McCown) who struggled offensively last week against the Titans mediocre secondary goes up against a solid Dallas defense in Texas. Dallas has choked in the fourth quarter three times this year, but they won’t have the chance to do so this week…The game will be long over by then.
My Pick: Cowboys in a blowout
Minnesota (2-4) at Carolina (4-2)
The Vikings have been absolutely awful thus far. Dante Culpepper has already thrown more interceptions then he did all of last year. Last week, Minnesota looked like they were packing it in for the season when they went down 17-0 to Green Bay. Then, in the second half they showed me glimpses of the way that they should be playing with the talent that they have on this team and came back to win. Don’t count them out yet. They could easily win the NFC North if Culpepper is able to build on his great second half last week and start performing up to his potential. The Panthers seem susceptible to me because their offense has been pretty bad as well despite their three game winning streak. Stephen Davis ranks 29th in the league in rushing yards and Jake Dehlomme is not spreading the ball around at all, making their passing game dangerously predictable(Steve Smith has 39 catches while second and third receivers Ricky Proehl and Keary Colbert have combined for 19). The Vikings need this one far more, and they are in high spirits after their comeback win over the Packers.
My Pick: Vikings pull off the upset
Washington (4-2) at New York (4-2)
Fresh off of a last-second comeback win over the Broncos, Eli Manning returns to New York hoping to pull off some more 4th quarter heroics. But, there to meet him are Mark Brunell(who has proven that when actually given pass protection he is still a solid quarterback) and Santana Moss(the premier deep threat in the NFL with an average of 19.7 yards per catch), eager to attack the porous New York secondary(31st in the league).
My Pick: Redskins
Chicago (3-3) at Detroit (3-3)
The winner takes over sole possession of first in the NFC North. Chicago has an elite defense despite their lack of a passing game(sorry Kyle Orton) as they proved last week when they beat Baltimore 9-6. Detroit, now that Jeff Garcia is healthy, finally have a legitimate quarterback and can get Joey Harrington off the field for good. In a battle of two evenly matched opponents I’ll take the home team.
My Pick: Lions
Green Bay (1-5) at Cincinnati (5-2)
Despite another great year by Favre(who leads the league with 14 TD passes), the Packers have been awful. I think that they are about ready to pack it in for the year after their second half collapse to the Vikings last week. Its hard to pick against Favre because the man has so much heart and you know that he is determined to will the Packers to victory this weekend. Unfortunately, after injuries to Ahman Green and Robert Ferguson he has Donald Driver and a bunch of practice squad players to work with offensively. Plus, Cincy’s potent(and healthy) offense is pretty good and is itching to get back on the field after a humiliating loss to the Steelers last week.
My Pick: Bengals
Oakland (2-4) at Tennessee (2-5)
Two teams who aren’t quite good enough to compete consistently. Conventional wisdom says to take the Titans who are playing at home and who finally have Pro-bowl QB Steve Mcnair healthy. But, the Raiders looked pretty good last week. The offensive line actually gave Kerry Collins time to throw the ball and he showed me that despite the fact that he is about as mobile as a rock, he still has a cannon. I’m banking on the pass protection being as good as I saw last week and for Moss to finally step up and start earning his paycheck.
My Pick: Raiders
Miami (2-4) at New Orleans (2-5)
New Orleans is without the services of its best player(Duece McCallister) for the rest of the season. They do however have a decent quarterback(Aaron Brooks) which is more than the Dolphins can offer. With Ricky Williams gaining negative yards, expect Ronnie Brown to get most of the carries and have a big name. It won’t be enough though…
My Pick: Saints
Kansas City (4-2) at San Diego (3-4)
K.C. has a solid team, but the Chargers are way too talented to fall to 3-5. Tomlinson is going to be hungry after having the worst game of his career last week against the Eagles. Expect an entertaining game with the home team winning a shootout.
My Pick: Chargers
Tampa Bay (5-1) at San Francisco (1-5)
With Brian Greise out for the year, and un-tested Chris Simms now at the helm for the Bucs, its tempting to pick this game as Alex Smith’s first victory. However, the Tampa Bay defense is as good as it gets in the NFL and they are capable of winning the game by themselves. Plus against a San Fran secondary that is allowing over 300 yards per game I could throw for a couple touchdowns.
My Pick: Buccaneers
Philadelphia (4-2) at Denver (5-2)
The stalwart Philly defense held LaDanian Tomlinson to single digit rushing yards last week. Tatum Bell and Mike Anderson shouldn’t provide many problems for them. Denver is still stunned from their last second loss to Eli Manning and the Giants. And if they couldn’t get it done against a N.Y. passing defense that ranks next to last, attacking the solid Eagles secondary is going to prove to be a much more arduous task.
My Pick: Eagles
Buffalo (3-4) at New England (3-3)
The Bills were just pummeled by a Raiders squad that has struggled all season. Now they have to travel to New England to face a Patriots team that has had two weeks to prepare for them. This could get ugly…
My Pick: Patriots
Monday Night:
Baltimore (2-4) at Pittsburgh (4-2)
The Ravens’ offense is averaging 11.5 points per game and has only one rushing touchdown all season. Baltimore is coming off a loss to the Bears in which they only managed to score two field goals. Meanwhile, the Steelers are riding high, with a healthy Roethlisberger and an unstoppable rushing attack that led them to a convincing victory over the division-leading Bengals.
My Pick: Steelers in dominating fashion
Friday, October 28, 2005
Sunday, October 23, 2005
Reasonably Unreasonable Reasoning....For A Reason...
Top 10 reasons that the Chicago White Sox will win the 2005 World Series:
10) The adversity that the White Sox went through at the end of the season, when they nearly blew a 15 game lead to Cleveland and battled back to win homefield throughout the playoffs , has made them a strong, battle-tested cohesive team.
9) They have the fastest lead-off hitter in the game in Scott Posednik( .290 BA, .351 OBP and 59 stolen bases during the regular season).
8) They may be facing Houston’s “Big Three” but they are countering this fearsome threesome with their equally formidable Big 4: Freddy Garcia(14-8 3.87 ERA), John Garland(18-10 3.50 ERA), Mark Buehrle (16-8 3.12 ERA) and Jose Contreras( 15-7, 3.61 ERA). Oh, and all they did against the Angels was pitch back-to-back-to-back-to-back complete games, in winning the last four games of the series.
7) Roger Clemens may be one of the best pitchers of all-time, and this season may have pitched better than anyone else in the major leagues, but as his early exit in Game 1 with a hamstring injury seems to indicate, his body is finally breaking down, leaving Houston with only two-thirds of its “Big Three” in a series that they can only win by out-pitching their opponent.
6) Jose Contreras has developed into the ace starter that the Yankees thought that they were getting when they signed him to that $8 million a year contract. Too bad Brian Cashman thought his money was better spent renting one-year wonder Esteban Loiaza. During the second half of the season, Contreras was arguably the best pitcher in the American League, posting an 11-2 record with a 2.96 ERA.
5) The White Sox make you beat them; they don’t beat themselves. They led the league in fielding percentage this year and have likely the best defensive middle infield in the league in Iguchi, Crede and Uribe.
4) Paul Konerko( .283 BA, 40 HRs and 100 RBIs this season) is a proven hitter that is scarier to face then anyone in Houston’s lineup. Sure Morgan Ensberg had a good year( .283 36 HRs and 101 RBIs) but Konerko has shown us that he can do better, hitting 41 HRs and driving in 117 runs last year. Did I mention his two homeruns and seven RBIs against the Angels? Enough said.
3) A.J. Pierzynski has emerged as one of the best power-hitting catchers in the league(3 HRs and 6 RBIs during the playoffs), complementing his already impressive pitch-calling and defensive abilities.
2) Chicago is this year’s Boston. The breaking of the curse for the Red Sox last year has apparently opened the floodgates for every other cursed team in Major League baseball to have their time in the sun as well. Next year maybe the Cubs or Indians will get to hoist the trophy? Or better yet, the Devil Rays…
1) I have written in my blog that the White Sox will win, and I am all-knowing. Anyone who has read my blog at all can attest to my infinite wisdom when it comes to predicting the outcomes of the playoffs this year and can see that in compiling this list and with no belief in superstitions whatsoever I have only honorable intentions. I love the White Sox. I love Ozzie Guillen. May the best team win…
10) The adversity that the White Sox went through at the end of the season, when they nearly blew a 15 game lead to Cleveland and battled back to win homefield throughout the playoffs , has made them a strong, battle-tested cohesive team.
9) They have the fastest lead-off hitter in the game in Scott Posednik( .290 BA, .351 OBP and 59 stolen bases during the regular season).
8) They may be facing Houston’s “Big Three” but they are countering this fearsome threesome with their equally formidable Big 4: Freddy Garcia(14-8 3.87 ERA), John Garland(18-10 3.50 ERA), Mark Buehrle (16-8 3.12 ERA) and Jose Contreras( 15-7, 3.61 ERA). Oh, and all they did against the Angels was pitch back-to-back-to-back-to-back complete games, in winning the last four games of the series.
7) Roger Clemens may be one of the best pitchers of all-time, and this season may have pitched better than anyone else in the major leagues, but as his early exit in Game 1 with a hamstring injury seems to indicate, his body is finally breaking down, leaving Houston with only two-thirds of its “Big Three” in a series that they can only win by out-pitching their opponent.
6) Jose Contreras has developed into the ace starter that the Yankees thought that they were getting when they signed him to that $8 million a year contract. Too bad Brian Cashman thought his money was better spent renting one-year wonder Esteban Loiaza. During the second half of the season, Contreras was arguably the best pitcher in the American League, posting an 11-2 record with a 2.96 ERA.
5) The White Sox make you beat them; they don’t beat themselves. They led the league in fielding percentage this year and have likely the best defensive middle infield in the league in Iguchi, Crede and Uribe.
4) Paul Konerko( .283 BA, 40 HRs and 100 RBIs this season) is a proven hitter that is scarier to face then anyone in Houston’s lineup. Sure Morgan Ensberg had a good year( .283 36 HRs and 101 RBIs) but Konerko has shown us that he can do better, hitting 41 HRs and driving in 117 runs last year. Did I mention his two homeruns and seven RBIs against the Angels? Enough said.
3) A.J. Pierzynski has emerged as one of the best power-hitting catchers in the league(3 HRs and 6 RBIs during the playoffs), complementing his already impressive pitch-calling and defensive abilities.
2) Chicago is this year’s Boston. The breaking of the curse for the Red Sox last year has apparently opened the floodgates for every other cursed team in Major League baseball to have their time in the sun as well. Next year maybe the Cubs or Indians will get to hoist the trophy? Or better yet, the Devil Rays…
1) I have written in my blog that the White Sox will win, and I am all-knowing. Anyone who has read my blog at all can attest to my infinite wisdom when it comes to predicting the outcomes of the playoffs this year and can see that in compiling this list and with no belief in superstitions whatsoever I have only honorable intentions. I love the White Sox. I love Ozzie Guillen. May the best team win…
Friday, October 14, 2005
Certain Uncertainty...
There are only three certainties in life: Death, taxes and the National League will win the World Series this year. That being said, I would rather judge a winner in a wet t-shirt contest between Natalie Portman and Katie Holmes(pre getting knocked up by Tom Cruise) than make a prediction on this year’s National League Championship Series between the Astros and Cardinals.
On the surface this looks to be a one-sided series. The Cardinals appear to be a well-oiled machine, a locomotive incapable of being derailed. Sure things may have looked that way last year, and Houston stretched the series to seven games, but that was only because Carlos Beltran was hitting every pitch he saw out of the ballpark. Last time I checked he now has a locker next to Mike Piazza in the Mets’ locker room. The player that has carried this franchise offensively for the last decade, Jeff Bagwell, has finally seen injuries and age catch up with him, playing in only 39 games this year and batting .250 with 3 homeruns and 19 RBIs. Meanwhile, the player that has been the offensive leader of the Cardinals ever since he broke in as a rookie five years ago had another MVP-caliber year, batting .330 with 38 doubles, 41 homeruns and 117 RBIs. Take a look at the overall statistics during the regular season and it would seem ludicrous to even consider picking against St. Louis. They finished 11 games ahead of Houston, with 100 wins to the Astros’ 89. Head to head in the regular season it wasn’t even close. The Cardinals won the season series 11-5.
What this comparison fails to take into consideration is that Houston still finished with the third best record in the NL and ended up only one game behind the Braves for the second best record in the league. Furthermore, the Astros had an abysmal start to the season and played the first two months of the year like a AA team( or almost as bad as the Kansas City Royals). They had to recover from a 15-30 start to make the playoffs, no easy task. 11 of the 16 games that the two teams played against each other this season were during the first three months of the season. The Astros played their best ball during the second half of the season, and in the five games that they played in September they went 3-2 against the Cardinals. They may not have Carlos Beltran suiting up for them anymore but they do have a new emerging star who finished with far superior stats than Beltran this year, Morgan Ensberg(.283 BA 36 HRs,101 RBIs). Their new sparkplug at the top of the lineup didn’t hurt either. Willy Taveras finished the year with a .291 BA and 34 stolen bases. Throw in 26 HRs apiece from Craig Biggio and Jason Lane as well as 24 from Lance Berkman(who had an off-year coming off of an injury) and you seem to have a pretty capable offense: a consistent leadoff hitter and several guys with power in the middle of the lineup to knock him in.
Then again the Cardinals, even without All-star/Gold-glover/perennial MVP candidate Scott Rolen manning third base and the cleanup spot in the order, have a far superior offense. Pujols is a much more threatening hitter than Ensberg or Berkman. They have a pesky leadoff hitter in David Eckstein, who batted .294 with a .363 OBP but more importantly saw 4 pitches per plate appearance. Their number two hitter, Mark Grudzielanek also had a consistent year, bating .294 with a .336 OBP. And they of course still have Jim Edmonds, who like Berkman had an off year(batting only .263 with 89 RBIs), but still knocked 29 balls out of the park. Throw in Larry Walker and Reggie Sanders, two dangerous veterans who have 30+ homerun power, but were injured for much of this year and you have a pretty potent lineup. Proving my point, so far in the postseason Sanders has 12 RBIs, including two more in St Louis’ Game 1 victory in the NLCS. The Cardinals despite all of their injuries, scored 805 runs during the regular season finishing third in runs scored behind the Reds and Phillies. In contrast, the Astros scored only 693 runs, and were outscored by every team in the NL Central except for the Pirates.
On the other hand, the Astros only allowed 609 runs, the fewest in the National League. They possess the two most important elements in the playoffs: a dominating trio of starting pitchers and a dependable closer. Andy Pettite(17-9 2.39 ERA), Roger Clemens(13-8 1.87 ERA) and Roy Oswalt(20-12 2.94 ERA) without a doubt make up the best starting pitching trio in the league, all three with ERAs under 3 and over 200 innings pitched. Clemens would be without a doubt the Cy Young winner this year if Houston hadn’t been shut out 5 times in games he started and given him next to nothing for run support all year long. Meanwhile Brad Lidge has been absolutely filthy closing games out(42 saves 2.29 ERA, 103 Ks in 70 innings pitched). This combination of great starting and finishing pitching proved to be more than enough in Game 2 as the Astros evened the series with 7 strong innings from Oswalt(only allowing one run on a solo HR by Pujols) and a 2 inning save by Lidge.
However, lets go back to how the Cardinals won Game 1 for a minute. They got a pretty stellar pitching performance from their ace and likely Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter(21-5 2.83 ERA 7 CGs during the regular season): 8 inning pitched, 5 hits, 2 earned runs. They also have a pretty damn good closer themselves in Jason Isringhausen(39 saves 2.14 ERA and a paltry .202 BAA) who shut the door on Houston in Game 1. The Cardinals’ second and third pitchers, Mark Mulder(16-8 3.64 ERA) and Jeff Suppan(16-10 3.57 ERA) aren’t too shabby either.
So, given the information I’ve just laid out, how can you make a prediction on this series? It is too close to call. These two teams are obviously both far superior to the Angels( who despite MLB’s best efforts to help Chicago become this year’s Boston will prevail against the White Sox) and the NLCS winner will easily defeat them. Just like last year’s ALCS, this year’s NLCS is the real World Series.
You can make a pretty convincing argument for either team. Houston has had Chris Burke( a relatively unheard of rookie utility player) explode for two clutch homeruns in the division series, including a walk-off shot in the 18th inning of Game 4 that ended the Braves’ season. He also drove in a run in the Astros’ Game 2 NLCS win. But St. Louis has the experience, having been to the World Series last year, and has a far superior pitching staff this season. Then again, Astros fans will be sure to point out that the last three World Series winners have been wildcard teams.
So, even after analyzing these two teams to death, I still can’t find any solid reason to pick one team over the other. What I can do though is add two more certainties to my list: This series is without a doubt going seven games….and is going to be pretty damn fun to watch!!
On the surface this looks to be a one-sided series. The Cardinals appear to be a well-oiled machine, a locomotive incapable of being derailed. Sure things may have looked that way last year, and Houston stretched the series to seven games, but that was only because Carlos Beltran was hitting every pitch he saw out of the ballpark. Last time I checked he now has a locker next to Mike Piazza in the Mets’ locker room. The player that has carried this franchise offensively for the last decade, Jeff Bagwell, has finally seen injuries and age catch up with him, playing in only 39 games this year and batting .250 with 3 homeruns and 19 RBIs. Meanwhile, the player that has been the offensive leader of the Cardinals ever since he broke in as a rookie five years ago had another MVP-caliber year, batting .330 with 38 doubles, 41 homeruns and 117 RBIs. Take a look at the overall statistics during the regular season and it would seem ludicrous to even consider picking against St. Louis. They finished 11 games ahead of Houston, with 100 wins to the Astros’ 89. Head to head in the regular season it wasn’t even close. The Cardinals won the season series 11-5.
What this comparison fails to take into consideration is that Houston still finished with the third best record in the NL and ended up only one game behind the Braves for the second best record in the league. Furthermore, the Astros had an abysmal start to the season and played the first two months of the year like a AA team( or almost as bad as the Kansas City Royals). They had to recover from a 15-30 start to make the playoffs, no easy task. 11 of the 16 games that the two teams played against each other this season were during the first three months of the season. The Astros played their best ball during the second half of the season, and in the five games that they played in September they went 3-2 against the Cardinals. They may not have Carlos Beltran suiting up for them anymore but they do have a new emerging star who finished with far superior stats than Beltran this year, Morgan Ensberg(.283 BA 36 HRs,101 RBIs). Their new sparkplug at the top of the lineup didn’t hurt either. Willy Taveras finished the year with a .291 BA and 34 stolen bases. Throw in 26 HRs apiece from Craig Biggio and Jason Lane as well as 24 from Lance Berkman(who had an off-year coming off of an injury) and you seem to have a pretty capable offense: a consistent leadoff hitter and several guys with power in the middle of the lineup to knock him in.
Then again the Cardinals, even without All-star/Gold-glover/perennial MVP candidate Scott Rolen manning third base and the cleanup spot in the order, have a far superior offense. Pujols is a much more threatening hitter than Ensberg or Berkman. They have a pesky leadoff hitter in David Eckstein, who batted .294 with a .363 OBP but more importantly saw 4 pitches per plate appearance. Their number two hitter, Mark Grudzielanek also had a consistent year, bating .294 with a .336 OBP. And they of course still have Jim Edmonds, who like Berkman had an off year(batting only .263 with 89 RBIs), but still knocked 29 balls out of the park. Throw in Larry Walker and Reggie Sanders, two dangerous veterans who have 30+ homerun power, but were injured for much of this year and you have a pretty potent lineup. Proving my point, so far in the postseason Sanders has 12 RBIs, including two more in St Louis’ Game 1 victory in the NLCS. The Cardinals despite all of their injuries, scored 805 runs during the regular season finishing third in runs scored behind the Reds and Phillies. In contrast, the Astros scored only 693 runs, and were outscored by every team in the NL Central except for the Pirates.
On the other hand, the Astros only allowed 609 runs, the fewest in the National League. They possess the two most important elements in the playoffs: a dominating trio of starting pitchers and a dependable closer. Andy Pettite(17-9 2.39 ERA), Roger Clemens(13-8 1.87 ERA) and Roy Oswalt(20-12 2.94 ERA) without a doubt make up the best starting pitching trio in the league, all three with ERAs under 3 and over 200 innings pitched. Clemens would be without a doubt the Cy Young winner this year if Houston hadn’t been shut out 5 times in games he started and given him next to nothing for run support all year long. Meanwhile Brad Lidge has been absolutely filthy closing games out(42 saves 2.29 ERA, 103 Ks in 70 innings pitched). This combination of great starting and finishing pitching proved to be more than enough in Game 2 as the Astros evened the series with 7 strong innings from Oswalt(only allowing one run on a solo HR by Pujols) and a 2 inning save by Lidge.
However, lets go back to how the Cardinals won Game 1 for a minute. They got a pretty stellar pitching performance from their ace and likely Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter(21-5 2.83 ERA 7 CGs during the regular season): 8 inning pitched, 5 hits, 2 earned runs. They also have a pretty damn good closer themselves in Jason Isringhausen(39 saves 2.14 ERA and a paltry .202 BAA) who shut the door on Houston in Game 1. The Cardinals’ second and third pitchers, Mark Mulder(16-8 3.64 ERA) and Jeff Suppan(16-10 3.57 ERA) aren’t too shabby either.
So, given the information I’ve just laid out, how can you make a prediction on this series? It is too close to call. These two teams are obviously both far superior to the Angels( who despite MLB’s best efforts to help Chicago become this year’s Boston will prevail against the White Sox) and the NLCS winner will easily defeat them. Just like last year’s ALCS, this year’s NLCS is the real World Series.
You can make a pretty convincing argument for either team. Houston has had Chris Burke( a relatively unheard of rookie utility player) explode for two clutch homeruns in the division series, including a walk-off shot in the 18th inning of Game 4 that ended the Braves’ season. He also drove in a run in the Astros’ Game 2 NLCS win. But St. Louis has the experience, having been to the World Series last year, and has a far superior pitching staff this season. Then again, Astros fans will be sure to point out that the last three World Series winners have been wildcard teams.
So, even after analyzing these two teams to death, I still can’t find any solid reason to pick one team over the other. What I can do though is add two more certainties to my list: This series is without a doubt going seven games….and is going to be pretty damn fun to watch!!
Sunday, October 09, 2005
Sock Drawer Revisited...
In a stunning(or not so stunning when I actually pull the Boston beer goggles off my eyes) turn of events, the Red Sox are headed home for the winter without winning a game, swept out of the playoffs by a team that I wrote off and that now seems to be everyone’s new pick to win the World Series: the Chicago White Sox. Good luck trying to find a spot on this bandwagon; its gone from nearly empty(not even Jay Mariotti wanted a place up there) to being overwhelmed with amnesiac overzealous baseball fans(Jay included) eager to witness the next historical triumph and see the city of Chicago be this year’s Boston and end their 88 year World Series drought. It’s the stuff that dreams are made of….Or at least every other sports story right now.
In reality, what makes the White Sox any better now that they have swept the Red Sox then they were before? Now that my eyes are opened, I will admit it: The Red Sox pitching staff was simply awful. They replaced Pedro(15-8 2.82 ERA, 208 Ks and a measly .204 BAA with the Mets) and Derek Lowe(who for an offensively challenged Dodgers squad had an average year: 12-15 but a 3.61 ERA that would have easily led this year’s Boston starters) with David Wells( 15-7 4.45 ERA and an ugly .296 BAA) and Matt Clement( who had a great first half( 10-2 3.85 ERA) but faded in the second half(3-4 5.72 ERA) ). Factor in the injury to Keith Foulke and you have a team with no starters with more than 16 wins(despite scoring the most runs in the American League), no starter with an ERA under 4 or over 200 strikeouts, no proven closer(despite Timlin’s success as a setup man the last couple years he is not comfortable finishing games) and with the only reliable option for middle relief being a rookie reliever who was converted from the starting rotation midway through the season(Jonathon Papelbon). A team without a good bullpen simply can’t win in the playoffs. Despite the offensive capabilities of this team(45+ HRS and 140+ RBIS from both Ortiz and Ramirez and the highest scoring offense in the league) they were doomed before the series began.
The White Sox on the other hand do possess this one needed element of a World Series winner: a good bullpen. When you can ignore three pitchers with sub-3 ERAs and call in El Duque you know you’ve got a good pen. Without El Duque, this series would still be being played as we speak, but bases loaded and no outs quickly turned into distant memory and the White Sox had Boston back on the ropes for good. They obviously have a great bullpen. This team also scored double digit runs in the first game of the series proving that they have a good enough offense to win it all. So why am I hating on them?
First of all, keep in mind who they were hitting against. The way Clement has thrown during the second half of the year, I could probably have hit a homerun off of him. And his other comrades on the Boston staff weren’t much better. Secondly the 2005 White Soz are streakier than my roommate’s underwear. Note that they are the “White” Sox and not the “Grey” Sox. That’s because the only two colors this team knows are black and white. All season long this team has been hot and cold, and despite their current 8 game winning streak(regular season and playoffs combined) everyone seems to be forgetting that they had to play that well to hold off a charging Indians squad that cut their 15 game lead down to a game and a half. In the blink of an eye, they went from a late-season collapse of epic proportions to having the best record in the American League. To put it bluntly, when they’re good, they’re good; when they’re bad, they’re bad. Their 35-18 record in one-run games was obviously important, especially since they took several of these away from the Indians, who lost 36 one-run games this season,. However, take a minute to go back and read some of the box-scores during their early September freefall and you will find many blow-out losses in which the Sox lost by 5 runs or more. When things start going poorly, they fall apart before eventually picking it up and going on a ridiculous winning streak to keep their heads above water. They get too caught up in losing games and making excuses for poor performances( read: Mark Buerhle’s crazy claims against the Rangers, accusing them of stealing signs by reflecting lights from centerfield). I believe that the playoffs do not allow enough time for the White Sox to complete this crazy cycle that they run on again. I think it’s safe to say that last year's ALCS was an anomaly. Therefore, I feel that when the White Sox do meet resistance and things start to go poorly, they will fall apart and not have time to recover within the restrictions of a 7 game series.
That is why this year’s World Series will be a Sox-less one. For Chicago, as we Red Sox fans told ourselves for 85 consecutive Octobers, “there’s always next year…..”
In reality, what makes the White Sox any better now that they have swept the Red Sox then they were before? Now that my eyes are opened, I will admit it: The Red Sox pitching staff was simply awful. They replaced Pedro(15-8 2.82 ERA, 208 Ks and a measly .204 BAA with the Mets) and Derek Lowe(who for an offensively challenged Dodgers squad had an average year: 12-15 but a 3.61 ERA that would have easily led this year’s Boston starters) with David Wells( 15-7 4.45 ERA and an ugly .296 BAA) and Matt Clement( who had a great first half( 10-2 3.85 ERA) but faded in the second half(3-4 5.72 ERA) ). Factor in the injury to Keith Foulke and you have a team with no starters with more than 16 wins(despite scoring the most runs in the American League), no starter with an ERA under 4 or over 200 strikeouts, no proven closer(despite Timlin’s success as a setup man the last couple years he is not comfortable finishing games) and with the only reliable option for middle relief being a rookie reliever who was converted from the starting rotation midway through the season(Jonathon Papelbon). A team without a good bullpen simply can’t win in the playoffs. Despite the offensive capabilities of this team(45+ HRS and 140+ RBIS from both Ortiz and Ramirez and the highest scoring offense in the league) they were doomed before the series began.
The White Sox on the other hand do possess this one needed element of a World Series winner: a good bullpen. When you can ignore three pitchers with sub-3 ERAs and call in El Duque you know you’ve got a good pen. Without El Duque, this series would still be being played as we speak, but bases loaded and no outs quickly turned into distant memory and the White Sox had Boston back on the ropes for good. They obviously have a great bullpen. This team also scored double digit runs in the first game of the series proving that they have a good enough offense to win it all. So why am I hating on them?
First of all, keep in mind who they were hitting against. The way Clement has thrown during the second half of the year, I could probably have hit a homerun off of him. And his other comrades on the Boston staff weren’t much better. Secondly the 2005 White Soz are streakier than my roommate’s underwear. Note that they are the “White” Sox and not the “Grey” Sox. That’s because the only two colors this team knows are black and white. All season long this team has been hot and cold, and despite their current 8 game winning streak(regular season and playoffs combined) everyone seems to be forgetting that they had to play that well to hold off a charging Indians squad that cut their 15 game lead down to a game and a half. In the blink of an eye, they went from a late-season collapse of epic proportions to having the best record in the American League. To put it bluntly, when they’re good, they’re good; when they’re bad, they’re bad. Their 35-18 record in one-run games was obviously important, especially since they took several of these away from the Indians, who lost 36 one-run games this season,. However, take a minute to go back and read some of the box-scores during their early September freefall and you will find many blow-out losses in which the Sox lost by 5 runs or more. When things start going poorly, they fall apart before eventually picking it up and going on a ridiculous winning streak to keep their heads above water. They get too caught up in losing games and making excuses for poor performances( read: Mark Buerhle’s crazy claims against the Rangers, accusing them of stealing signs by reflecting lights from centerfield). I believe that the playoffs do not allow enough time for the White Sox to complete this crazy cycle that they run on again. I think it’s safe to say that last year's ALCS was an anomaly. Therefore, I feel that when the White Sox do meet resistance and things start to go poorly, they will fall apart and not have time to recover within the restrictions of a 7 game series.
That is why this year’s World Series will be a Sox-less one. For Chicago, as we Red Sox fans told ourselves for 85 consecutive Octobers, “there’s always next year…..”
Monday, October 03, 2005
I Stand Corrected.....
ALthough I hate to admit this, I do agree that the Red Sox do have a legitimate chance to win the AL Pennant. None of the other teams in the Al have shown anysign of dominance relative to the rest of the contenders. It quite simply may break down to a battle of veterans gutting it out. It will be interesting to see if Small is the next El duque.
Two drawbacks to your post. You need to give Mo a little more respect than what you wrote in your article. The man has been a cornerstone to the entire Yankees success this season. While I do aggree that he struggles against the Red sox, nevertheless his travails against our Beantown Meatheads does not put him equal to Mike Timlin.
Furthermore, I would be betting the deed to my house (if i had one) on the Red sox winning the pennant, if they had a better bullpen. The current bullpen situation (more like fiasco) leaves me waking up in cold sweats. I forsee a series blown by timlin and Co., or at least a few games.
Another note of lesser importance. You compared Small, and John lackey as both being "guys that came up from the minors". While Lackey MAY have come up from the minors this season he has had quite a bit of major league experience. Perhaps you should use a different reference as that common expression refers to rookies entering the "bigs"
~ Hung Like A Light Switch
Dear Hung,
You made some interesting points and proved that even I can sometimes be wrong. I mistakingly thought that John Lackey was a veteran who had no significant major league experience because I witnessed his callup early in the season from a rehab assignment. In actuality he has pitched 2 full seasons and part of another in the major leagues, all with the angels. Maybe if I had referenced some stats there rather than relying solely on my opinion and superior intellect then you wouldn't be reading this right now. In my defense, before this year he was 33-33 in his career with an ERA above 4, so he was a mediocre pitcher who could easily slip under the radar before this year. Only time will tell if this is a breakout year for him or if he is the next Esteban Loaiza.
As long as we're on the subject of Angels pitchers....I incorrectly stated that Bartolo Colon hadn't pitched in the postseason since he was with the Tribe back in 2002. He actually pitched Game 2 of the divisional series last year against the Red Sox. However, this did not in any way go against any of my arguments about his inability to pitch well in the postseason as he pitched a mediocre game and his team ended up losing. His pitching line: 6 Innings pitched, 7 hits allowed, 3 walks, 3 runs and a measly 3 strikeouts.
In response to your feelings on the Red Sox bullpen....Yes, they're bad, but is the Yankees' bullpen much better? Yes, I give props to Rivera for being a filthy pitcher with the single best pitch in the major leagues. The problem is, its the only one he throws and the Red Sox have seen it enough times that they know how to time it as we saw last year in the playoffs and during their matchups this year. No, Mike Timlin is not a reliable closer, but against the Red Sox neither is Rivera. No lead will be safe in this series. I didn't even touch on the other members of both bullpens but in a close game I wouldn't expect to see any of the regular bullpen members on either team other than Gordon and Rivera for the Yankees and Papelbon and Timlin for the Red Sox(This is excluding members of both starting pitching rotations who may be used when needed). Anyone else from either bullpen will blatantly give the game away within seconds of stepping on the mound.
There, I corrected myself and still managed to put you in your place.
On a more personal note Hung, its not the size of the boat that matters, its the motion in the ocean.
If you're still concerned, maybe you should invest in some Enzyte. Look what it did for Bob's golf swing....and his partner back at the clubhouse seems to be pretty happy.
Love Always
~Basketcase86
Two drawbacks to your post. You need to give Mo a little more respect than what you wrote in your article. The man has been a cornerstone to the entire Yankees success this season. While I do aggree that he struggles against the Red sox, nevertheless his travails against our Beantown Meatheads does not put him equal to Mike Timlin.
Furthermore, I would be betting the deed to my house (if i had one) on the Red sox winning the pennant, if they had a better bullpen. The current bullpen situation (more like fiasco) leaves me waking up in cold sweats. I forsee a series blown by timlin and Co., or at least a few games.
Another note of lesser importance. You compared Small, and John lackey as both being "guys that came up from the minors". While Lackey MAY have come up from the minors this season he has had quite a bit of major league experience. Perhaps you should use a different reference as that common expression refers to rookies entering the "bigs"
~ Hung Like A Light Switch
Dear Hung,
You made some interesting points and proved that even I can sometimes be wrong. I mistakingly thought that John Lackey was a veteran who had no significant major league experience because I witnessed his callup early in the season from a rehab assignment. In actuality he has pitched 2 full seasons and part of another in the major leagues, all with the angels. Maybe if I had referenced some stats there rather than relying solely on my opinion and superior intellect then you wouldn't be reading this right now. In my defense, before this year he was 33-33 in his career with an ERA above 4, so he was a mediocre pitcher who could easily slip under the radar before this year. Only time will tell if this is a breakout year for him or if he is the next Esteban Loaiza.
As long as we're on the subject of Angels pitchers....I incorrectly stated that Bartolo Colon hadn't pitched in the postseason since he was with the Tribe back in 2002. He actually pitched Game 2 of the divisional series last year against the Red Sox. However, this did not in any way go against any of my arguments about his inability to pitch well in the postseason as he pitched a mediocre game and his team ended up losing. His pitching line: 6 Innings pitched, 7 hits allowed, 3 walks, 3 runs and a measly 3 strikeouts.
In response to your feelings on the Red Sox bullpen....Yes, they're bad, but is the Yankees' bullpen much better? Yes, I give props to Rivera for being a filthy pitcher with the single best pitch in the major leagues. The problem is, its the only one he throws and the Red Sox have seen it enough times that they know how to time it as we saw last year in the playoffs and during their matchups this year. No, Mike Timlin is not a reliable closer, but against the Red Sox neither is Rivera. No lead will be safe in this series. I didn't even touch on the other members of both bullpens but in a close game I wouldn't expect to see any of the regular bullpen members on either team other than Gordon and Rivera for the Yankees and Papelbon and Timlin for the Red Sox(This is excluding members of both starting pitching rotations who may be used when needed). Anyone else from either bullpen will blatantly give the game away within seconds of stepping on the mound.
There, I corrected myself and still managed to put you in your place.
On a more personal note Hung, its not the size of the boat that matters, its the motion in the ocean.
If you're still concerned, maybe you should invest in some Enzyte. Look what it did for Bob's golf swing....and his partner back at the clubhouse seems to be pretty happy.
Love Always
~Basketcase86
Best Worst-Case Scenario?
Over the course of the last month of the season, the Red Sox have done everything possible to prove that they are incapable of repeating as World Series Champions this October. They lost their closer Keith Foulke for the season. Last year’s postseason hero and ace of the pitching staff Curt Schilling has continued to pitch ineffectively coming back from injury. The rest of the pitching staff struggled to pick up the slack and as a result, despite an absolutely ridiculous September by David Ortiz (11 HRs, 29 RBIs and like 2 million game-winning hits) the Sox managed to blow a 4 game lead in the division to the surging Yankees in the last three weeks. They barely squeaked into the playoffs as the wild card team by taking two of three from the Yankees and benefiting from Cleveland inexplicably falling apart in the last week(time to forget about my man crush on Travis Hafner…..for this year at least). So why am I still riding this bandwagon(at least to win the American League pennant) besides the obvious, that I am a die-hard Red Sox fan?
In all reality, there are only two teams capable of winning the pennant this year: the Red Sox and the Yankees. For the third consecutive season, they will meet each other in the American League Championship Series. As in each of the past three seasons, they are two very similar and evenly matched teams. It appears as though every pitch in this series, every at-bat could swing things in favor of either team. But, when all factors are taken into consideration, I can say that I am pretty certain that Boston will prevail.
New York and Boston both finished with identical 95-67 records, but the Yankees were awarded the division by winning the season series with the Sox.Their reward? They get to fly all the way out west to California to face the Angels, the hottest team in the league down the stretch(14-2 in their last 16 games). Meanwhile, the Red Sox get to take a short flight to Chicago to play a mediocre White Sox team that played .500 ball the last 2 months of the season and was in serious danger of missing the playoffs before Cleveland’s bizarre freefall. The Red Sox will swiftly dispose of their white namesake while the Yankees will win out in an extended series with Anaheim( or should I say Los Angeles of Anaheim? For the record, this is the most awkward/unnecessary/stupid team name ever). The ALCS will go to the team who is better-rested which will most definitely be the Red Sox. I tell you this with absolute certainty despite the fact that Boston finished 4th to last in the American League in ERA at 4.74 and their closer(Mike Timlin) hasn’t had a postseason save since 1992.
I realize that pitching is important, but the only two pitching staffs in the AL who scare me at all reside in Oakland and Minnesota and they will be watching the postseason unfold from the comfort of their living rooms. Buerhle and Garland have shown us in the second half of the season what they and the White Sox are really made of as they have both all but disappeared after the all-star break(a combined 11-10 during that span). The Angels? They are led by potential Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon with his league-leading 21 wins. Colon is also third in the AL in WHIP(walks plus hits per inning pitched) and has kept his ERA under 3.5(albeit barely) which is more than Buerhle and Garland can say. However I have a long memory and I remember back to his inconsistencies with the Indians in the postseason which was why they were willing to let him go way back in 2002. He has yet to pitch in the playoffs since then when he got rocked in all three of his postseason starts. I also seem to recall that despite his 18 wins last year, his ERA was an ugly 5.01. As long as we’re picking on Colon, despite the fact that he throws upwards of 98 mph, the guy has not struck out over 200 batters in a season since 2001. He’s a power pitcher who doesn’t use his power to his advantage. Mostly because his fastball is flatter than Nicole Kidman. I for-see Gary Sheffield taking him deep a minimum of twice in this series. After him, their rotation is a patchwork group of no-names. John Lackey(14-5, 3.44 ERA) has come out of nowhere and had a decent year but let’s see him prove his mettle in the playoffs. Personally I think he is the equivalent of the Yankees’ Aaron Small, a no-name pitcher who has come out of the minors and had surprising regular season success but who is completely unproven and who will likely fall off of the radar again by this time next year. Speaking of the Yankees, whose rotation is anchored by Small…. They likely have the most abysmal pitching staff of the four AL playoff teams. Their best two pitchers in the regular season were Small(10-0, 3.20 ERA) and Shawn Chacon( 8-10, 3.44 ERA), who was picked up in a July trade from the Colorado Rockies, at which point he was the worst statistical pitcher on the team with the worst pitching staff in baseball. This patchwork rotation held together over the last two months of the season but neither of these guys have what it takes to hold down the juggernaut that is the Red Sox lineup. If the Yankees are to overtake Boston and make it back to the World Series then they need Randy Johnson to pitch like the Randy Johnson of old, not like the average pitcher with deteriorating velocity that threw for them this season(17-8 3.80 ERA, 211 Ks, his lowest total since he was with Seattle). The problem is, age has finally caught up to him and I think this is all he has left in the tank. His former teammate in Arizona, Curt Schilling, has been absolutely awful for the Red Sox this season(ERA above 5) but he has been struggling coming back from injury. He shut down the potent Yankees offense in the regular season finale, and has shown signs of life in his last few starts. Despite their inferior regular season stats I would take a rotation of Schilling, David Wells and knuckle-baller Tim Wakefield over the Yankees' aforementioned top three, because they have all proven that they know what it takes to win in the postseason. At closer, disregarding 379 career saves including 43 more this year, it is pretty much a toss-up. Mariano Rivera may be the best closer in the league against every team not from Boston, but as we saw last October and this April to begin the season, he looks like Byun Hyun Kim against the Red Sox.
The Yankees threesome of 100 RBI men, Hideki Matsui, Alex Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield, are pretty intimidating, but in the last four games of the ALCS last year we saw how quickly they can disappear when the pressure heats up. Meanwhile Ortiz is currently the most clutch player on the planet, with more game-winning hits in the last two years than ARod has had manicures. Manny Ramirez and Ortiz are the most fearsome duo in the league, becoming the fourth pair of teammates to each hit 45 or more homeruns in the same season. Despite an obviously disappointing September, the Red Sox find themselves exactly where they want to be, with a realistic chance of repeating as American League Champions.
In all reality, there are only two teams capable of winning the pennant this year: the Red Sox and the Yankees. For the third consecutive season, they will meet each other in the American League Championship Series. As in each of the past three seasons, they are two very similar and evenly matched teams. It appears as though every pitch in this series, every at-bat could swing things in favor of either team. But, when all factors are taken into consideration, I can say that I am pretty certain that Boston will prevail.
New York and Boston both finished with identical 95-67 records, but the Yankees were awarded the division by winning the season series with the Sox.Their reward? They get to fly all the way out west to California to face the Angels, the hottest team in the league down the stretch(14-2 in their last 16 games). Meanwhile, the Red Sox get to take a short flight to Chicago to play a mediocre White Sox team that played .500 ball the last 2 months of the season and was in serious danger of missing the playoffs before Cleveland’s bizarre freefall. The Red Sox will swiftly dispose of their white namesake while the Yankees will win out in an extended series with Anaheim( or should I say Los Angeles of Anaheim? For the record, this is the most awkward/unnecessary/stupid team name ever). The ALCS will go to the team who is better-rested which will most definitely be the Red Sox. I tell you this with absolute certainty despite the fact that Boston finished 4th to last in the American League in ERA at 4.74 and their closer(Mike Timlin) hasn’t had a postseason save since 1992.
I realize that pitching is important, but the only two pitching staffs in the AL who scare me at all reside in Oakland and Minnesota and they will be watching the postseason unfold from the comfort of their living rooms. Buerhle and Garland have shown us in the second half of the season what they and the White Sox are really made of as they have both all but disappeared after the all-star break(a combined 11-10 during that span). The Angels? They are led by potential Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon with his league-leading 21 wins. Colon is also third in the AL in WHIP(walks plus hits per inning pitched) and has kept his ERA under 3.5(albeit barely) which is more than Buerhle and Garland can say. However I have a long memory and I remember back to his inconsistencies with the Indians in the postseason which was why they were willing to let him go way back in 2002. He has yet to pitch in the playoffs since then when he got rocked in all three of his postseason starts. I also seem to recall that despite his 18 wins last year, his ERA was an ugly 5.01. As long as we’re picking on Colon, despite the fact that he throws upwards of 98 mph, the guy has not struck out over 200 batters in a season since 2001. He’s a power pitcher who doesn’t use his power to his advantage. Mostly because his fastball is flatter than Nicole Kidman. I for-see Gary Sheffield taking him deep a minimum of twice in this series. After him, their rotation is a patchwork group of no-names. John Lackey(14-5, 3.44 ERA) has come out of nowhere and had a decent year but let’s see him prove his mettle in the playoffs. Personally I think he is the equivalent of the Yankees’ Aaron Small, a no-name pitcher who has come out of the minors and had surprising regular season success but who is completely unproven and who will likely fall off of the radar again by this time next year. Speaking of the Yankees, whose rotation is anchored by Small…. They likely have the most abysmal pitching staff of the four AL playoff teams. Their best two pitchers in the regular season were Small(10-0, 3.20 ERA) and Shawn Chacon( 8-10, 3.44 ERA), who was picked up in a July trade from the Colorado Rockies, at which point he was the worst statistical pitcher on the team with the worst pitching staff in baseball. This patchwork rotation held together over the last two months of the season but neither of these guys have what it takes to hold down the juggernaut that is the Red Sox lineup. If the Yankees are to overtake Boston and make it back to the World Series then they need Randy Johnson to pitch like the Randy Johnson of old, not like the average pitcher with deteriorating velocity that threw for them this season(17-8 3.80 ERA, 211 Ks, his lowest total since he was with Seattle). The problem is, age has finally caught up to him and I think this is all he has left in the tank. His former teammate in Arizona, Curt Schilling, has been absolutely awful for the Red Sox this season(ERA above 5) but he has been struggling coming back from injury. He shut down the potent Yankees offense in the regular season finale, and has shown signs of life in his last few starts. Despite their inferior regular season stats I would take a rotation of Schilling, David Wells and knuckle-baller Tim Wakefield over the Yankees' aforementioned top three, because they have all proven that they know what it takes to win in the postseason. At closer, disregarding 379 career saves including 43 more this year, it is pretty much a toss-up. Mariano Rivera may be the best closer in the league against every team not from Boston, but as we saw last October and this April to begin the season, he looks like Byun Hyun Kim against the Red Sox.
The Yankees threesome of 100 RBI men, Hideki Matsui, Alex Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield, are pretty intimidating, but in the last four games of the ALCS last year we saw how quickly they can disappear when the pressure heats up. Meanwhile Ortiz is currently the most clutch player on the planet, with more game-winning hits in the last two years than ARod has had manicures. Manny Ramirez and Ortiz are the most fearsome duo in the league, becoming the fourth pair of teammates to each hit 45 or more homeruns in the same season. Despite an obviously disappointing September, the Red Sox find themselves exactly where they want to be, with a realistic chance of repeating as American League Champions.
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