I am running a bit short on time here, so there isn’t much time to comment on all of the things I would like to say about the pandemonium that ensued last week; but, I’ll give it a try:
1) Between the phantom pass-interference call on Samuel (as well as several other questionable calls that went against the Pats) to the Polamalu interception reversal in the Steelers/Colts game, it was a horrible week all-around for officiating. Interesting sidenote: Why wasn’t Pittsburgh linebacker Joey Porter fined for making post-game comments suggesting a conspiracy (ie the NFL wanted the Colts to win)? Maybe, because he was on to something?
2) The Patriots’ train of destiny/dynasty has been derailed…but they have nobody to blame except themselves. Even with the officiating errors in that game, New England did everything in their power to give the Broncos the game. On the flip side, Denver did nothing on offense to make me believe in them or their chances of winning the Super Bowl this year. Let’s see Jake the Snake (more recently known as “No-Mistake Jake”) make some big throws when it matters.
3) Besides losing a lot of respect for Peyton Manning, stemming from both his play on the field and his post-game comments calling out his offensive line, I have also gained some serious doubts about his ability to play well in a game when it matters. Is he the next Dan Marino? I mean if I want a fantasy QB, there’s no question that I’m taking Peyton first, but if I wanted, in real-life, a quarterback capable of leading my team to the Super Bowl, I can count on two hands the number of guys I would take ahead of him.
4) When was the last time the NFL championship was this wide open? I feel that all four teams left have a legitimate chance to win it all…
Anyway, on to the picks:
Last Week: 1-3
Safe Picks: 0-2
(I guess I shouldn’t quit my day job quite yet…)
Pittsburgh at Denver:
As Bill Simmons mentions in his most recent column, the Steelers seem like a team of destiny right now…They have played as well as any team in the league over the past month, and every break has gone their way, from Carson Palmer going down on the first play of their first playoff game to Rothelisberger making that tackle of Harper after Betis made the worst fumble of his career to one of the most accurate field goal kickers in NFL history missing a game-tying field goal. Honestly, I think that these two teams match up pretty evenly. Both defenses are equally solid, as are their running games. What it will come down to will be the play of the quarterbacks, and I trust Jake Plummer (although he was my starting fantasy QB on my Fantasy Super Bowl winning team) about as far as I can throw him. Big Ben has seemed so much more confident in the playoffs this year, and he just looks to me like a winner. And, going back to the beginning of this blurb, the Steelers just seem like a team of destiny right now…
My Pick: Steelers
Carolina at Seattle:
We all know that Skip Bayless is a nutcase, but his latest column just seems completely absurd to me...
Bayless thinks that the Seahawks have benefited from an easy schedule, have had a lot of breaks go their way in close games, and played in the weakest division in football. While this may be true to some degree, let’s go back a couple years…remember the 2003 Panthers? They also benefited from a weak schedule; they also won a lot of close games on breaks that went their way; they also played in a weak division. That doesn’t change the fact that the 2003 Panthers and this year’s Seahawks are both solid teams. Seattle should, instead of being criticized, be admired, for their ability to win close games. And honestly, if there’s any team that should be critiqued here it’s this year’s version of the Panthers. With Jake Delhomme to Steve Smith being their number one, number two and number three option on offense (especially with DeShaun Foster now out for the year) Carolina is easily the most one-dimensional team left in the playoffs. I guess when that one dimension involves Steve Smith, you still have a team that is hard to beat, but there is no way I can give them the edge over the less-battle tested but more balanced Seahawks. How long can Shaun Alexander keep underperforming in the playoffs? How long can Carolina keep winning games on the road? All streaks have to come to an end sometime…unless it is Bill Simmons’ streak of picking Panthers’ games incorrectly (he picked the Panthers to win this week)…
My Pick: Seahawks
Sunday, January 22, 2006
Saturday, January 14, 2006
And The Plot Thickens…
Week 2 of the NFL playoffs is upon us, but before we analyze this week’s games, let’s take a moment to recap what went on last week:
My Overall Record 2-2
Safe Picks 1-0
That 2-2 record that you read above is a bit misleading. I will admit that I read way too much into Bill Simmons’ man-crush on Eli Manning and ignored the fact that the Giants’ secondary has been suspect all year. I will also admit that I gave John Fox way too little credit even after seeing him take the Panthers to the Super Bowl two years ago solely on defensive ingenuity and tenacity. I’m not alone here though as the majority of sports analysts around the country also made the same mistakes because they used the same flawed logic that I did. The Panthers stacked the line of scrimmage to stop Tiki Barber and forced Eli Manning to throw the ball, which he failed to do successfully. Then, once Carolina established a lead and the running game was essentially a moot point, they sent blitzes at Eli left and right, forcing him into three interceptions. The younger Manning may well be a great quarterback in the NFL one day, but by no means is that day now, despite what the media has been telling us all season, and the playoff-tested Panthers capitalized on his inconsistency.
As for the other game I missed though…I think we can all agree that had Carson Palmer not been injured on the first play from scrimmage, that game would have had a different outcome. I’m not a seer; I can’t predict when MVP candidates are going to get injured and open the door for their team to lose to a mediocre opponent.
Anyway, what’s past is past, what’s done is done…Moving on to this week:
Washington (10-6, 4-4 away) at Seattle (13-3, 8-0 home):
Washington’s defense has been absolutely filthy during their winning streak that they rode to the playoffs and again in their win in Tampa Bay last week. Still, it’s hard for me to take this team seriously when their QB, Mark Brunell, couldn’t even put together 50 yards passing. I know you can’t bail on a QB when you’re in the second round of the playoffs, but Brunell is hurt and it is affecting his play. He hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards since Week 10 and hasn’t completed more than half of his passes since Week 15 against the Giants. If the Redskins fall behind and Brunell struggles, look for Gibbs to put Patrick Ramsey into the game. I think that Bill Simmons’ assessment is a little bit exaggerated (He predicted the Seahawks to win 30-6). Washington’s defense will keep them in the game but in the end Seattle will move on without too much trouble and move to 9-0 at home this year.
My Pick: Seahawks
New England (10-6, 5-3 away) at Denver (13-3, 8-0 home):
Yes, this game is being played in Denver. Yes, the thin Mile High air will be a daunting obstacle for the Patriots. Yes, the Broncos are undefeated at home this year. And yes, they beat the Patriots in Denver earlier this season, 28-20. But, as long as we are throwing out statistics…Since 2001, the Patriots are 6-0 against teams that beat them earlier in the season. Overall, they are 18-3 during that span in rematches against teams that they already played. Throwing the stats out the window though, consider this: The Patriots played the Broncos earlier in the year with a team that was—at best—half strength. Furthermore, it is no secret that the Broncos’ offense is fueled first and foremost by their running game. The Patriots have had the best rushing defense in the league over the past six weeks and I expect this trend to continue tonight. This will force Jake the Snake to make plays in the passing game to lead the Broncos to victory. Mike Shannahan has hidden Plummer’s weaknesses all season, but if their running game is exposed, he will be exposed as well. It is surprising how many analysts think that Denver is going to win but that will just help Belichick fire up his troops by making them feel disrespected.
My Pick: Patriots
MY FIRST SAFE PICK
Pittsburgh (11-5, 6-2 away) at Indianapolis (14-2, 7-1 home):
I really shouldn’t be writing this little blurb right now. If Carson Palmer hadn’t been injured on his first pass attempt of the game, we might have an actual game on our hands during this spot. But, we don’t. Peyton Manning will expose the Steelers’ weak secondary and the Colts will win big!
My Pick: Colts
MY SECOND SAFE PICK
Carolina (11-5, 6-2 away) at Chicago (11-5, 7-1 home):
Despite what the Bears have done this season, very few people expect them to win this game. "Their playoff inexperience will hinder them and no one can stop Steve Smith." No one can stop Steve Smith? I seem to remember the Bears holding him down enough in their game earlier in the year to win 13-3. The Bears are also being lambasted for playing Rex Grossman over Kyle Orton when Orton has played every game this year except one. Well, the Bears are certainly not giving up much with the quarterback change, as Orton (who was the lowest ranked QB in the league) has produced no offense whatsoever and been handed the few touchdown passes he has by turnovers caused by their defense. Grossman, although certainly not Peyton Manning, gives them the chance to make a couple big plays downfield. A couple big plays will be all that Chicago, led as always by their defense, needs to advance in this low-scoring affair. The Panthers have been consistently inconsistent all season long and I expect a let down after last week’s huge win over the Giants.
My Pick: Bears
My Overall Record 2-2
Safe Picks 1-0
That 2-2 record that you read above is a bit misleading. I will admit that I read way too much into Bill Simmons’ man-crush on Eli Manning and ignored the fact that the Giants’ secondary has been suspect all year. I will also admit that I gave John Fox way too little credit even after seeing him take the Panthers to the Super Bowl two years ago solely on defensive ingenuity and tenacity. I’m not alone here though as the majority of sports analysts around the country also made the same mistakes because they used the same flawed logic that I did. The Panthers stacked the line of scrimmage to stop Tiki Barber and forced Eli Manning to throw the ball, which he failed to do successfully. Then, once Carolina established a lead and the running game was essentially a moot point, they sent blitzes at Eli left and right, forcing him into three interceptions. The younger Manning may well be a great quarterback in the NFL one day, but by no means is that day now, despite what the media has been telling us all season, and the playoff-tested Panthers capitalized on his inconsistency.
As for the other game I missed though…I think we can all agree that had Carson Palmer not been injured on the first play from scrimmage, that game would have had a different outcome. I’m not a seer; I can’t predict when MVP candidates are going to get injured and open the door for their team to lose to a mediocre opponent.
Anyway, what’s past is past, what’s done is done…Moving on to this week:
Washington (10-6, 4-4 away) at Seattle (13-3, 8-0 home):
Washington’s defense has been absolutely filthy during their winning streak that they rode to the playoffs and again in their win in Tampa Bay last week. Still, it’s hard for me to take this team seriously when their QB, Mark Brunell, couldn’t even put together 50 yards passing. I know you can’t bail on a QB when you’re in the second round of the playoffs, but Brunell is hurt and it is affecting his play. He hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards since Week 10 and hasn’t completed more than half of his passes since Week 15 against the Giants. If the Redskins fall behind and Brunell struggles, look for Gibbs to put Patrick Ramsey into the game. I think that Bill Simmons’ assessment is a little bit exaggerated (He predicted the Seahawks to win 30-6). Washington’s defense will keep them in the game but in the end Seattle will move on without too much trouble and move to 9-0 at home this year.
My Pick: Seahawks
New England (10-6, 5-3 away) at Denver (13-3, 8-0 home):
Yes, this game is being played in Denver. Yes, the thin Mile High air will be a daunting obstacle for the Patriots. Yes, the Broncos are undefeated at home this year. And yes, they beat the Patriots in Denver earlier this season, 28-20. But, as long as we are throwing out statistics…Since 2001, the Patriots are 6-0 against teams that beat them earlier in the season. Overall, they are 18-3 during that span in rematches against teams that they already played. Throwing the stats out the window though, consider this: The Patriots played the Broncos earlier in the year with a team that was—at best—half strength. Furthermore, it is no secret that the Broncos’ offense is fueled first and foremost by their running game. The Patriots have had the best rushing defense in the league over the past six weeks and I expect this trend to continue tonight. This will force Jake the Snake to make plays in the passing game to lead the Broncos to victory. Mike Shannahan has hidden Plummer’s weaknesses all season, but if their running game is exposed, he will be exposed as well. It is surprising how many analysts think that Denver is going to win but that will just help Belichick fire up his troops by making them feel disrespected.
My Pick: Patriots
MY FIRST SAFE PICK
Pittsburgh (11-5, 6-2 away) at Indianapolis (14-2, 7-1 home):
I really shouldn’t be writing this little blurb right now. If Carson Palmer hadn’t been injured on his first pass attempt of the game, we might have an actual game on our hands during this spot. But, we don’t. Peyton Manning will expose the Steelers’ weak secondary and the Colts will win big!
My Pick: Colts
MY SECOND SAFE PICK
Carolina (11-5, 6-2 away) at Chicago (11-5, 7-1 home):
Despite what the Bears have done this season, very few people expect them to win this game. "Their playoff inexperience will hinder them and no one can stop Steve Smith." No one can stop Steve Smith? I seem to remember the Bears holding him down enough in their game earlier in the year to win 13-3. The Bears are also being lambasted for playing Rex Grossman over Kyle Orton when Orton has played every game this year except one. Well, the Bears are certainly not giving up much with the quarterback change, as Orton (who was the lowest ranked QB in the league) has produced no offense whatsoever and been handed the few touchdown passes he has by turnovers caused by their defense. Grossman, although certainly not Peyton Manning, gives them the chance to make a couple big plays downfield. A couple big plays will be all that Chicago, led as always by their defense, needs to advance in this low-scoring affair. The Panthers have been consistently inconsistent all season long and I expect a let down after last week’s huge win over the Giants.
My Pick: Bears
Thursday, January 05, 2006
Playoffs? You Wanna Talk About Playoffs?
My New Year’s Resolution is to never miss another week of updating my blog…unless of course I am stranded in the desolate wilderness of the Northeast Kingdom with only *gasp* dialup. On second thought, my actual New Year’s Resolution is to finish my half-completed segment on Johnny “Wu San Gui” Damon and post it. I have already seen at least one article containing a similar opinion to mine so there are (thankfully) a few observers that haven’t panicked yet. Check back later to read my baseball segment; for now, let me get back to the sport at hand. This weekend the NFL playoffs begin and I for one am excited…
Last Week (although I didn’t post them):
9-7
And this week….Wildcard Madness!!
Only one of these games is a sure thing and that involves one team beating a team that has two more wins than them. Without further ado…
Washington (10-6) @ Tampa Bay (10-6):
The Buccaneers are of course the home team here but I see both teams being fundamentally flawed and consistently inconsistent. Both teams have shown the ability to look great one week and abysmal the next. But, I have more faith in the ‘skins who have two offensive studs (Clinton Portis and Santana Moss) who have remained dependable throughout the season. I have no idea what they’re going to get from Mark Brunell (especially with his knee injury), but those two guys have been constants all year. Chris Simms has made a lot of strides this year but I am still remembering the shellacking they took against the Patriots a few weeks ago when he couldn’t muster a single point out of their offense. Cadillac Williams? I have no idea what kind of rushing stats he is going to put up. In a match-up of pretenders, I’ll take the road team here, who have won five in a row…but I wouldn’t put any money down on it.
My Pick: Redskins
Jacksonville (12-4) @ New England (10-6):
I would like to note that the Jaguars nearly lost to the Texans (twice) and beat the ‘9ers by a score of 10-9. Their gaudy record is deceiving (they only beat three teams with winning records) and despite the difference in their records, the Patriots are a far superior team. New England has everybody back healthy now and they look a lot like the team that beat the Eagles in Jacksonville last season. If the Pats are going to get knocked out of the playoffs, it sure as hell isn’t going to be this week…
My Pick: Patriots
My SAFE PICK OF THE WEEK
Carolina (10-6) @ New York (11-5):
This one is another toss-up…The Giants are looking pretty beat-up right now but the Panthers look to me like they are also pretenders, while the Giants seem like potential contenders. Tiki Barber is going to have another huge game. The question is of course, what is Eli Manning going to do? Jake Delhomme is an above average quarterback and should throw a touchdown or two to Steve Smith. Can Eli put something together this week and give them the balanced attack that they will need to advance? I think he will but I wouldn’t put any money on it…
My Pick: Giants
Pittsburgh (11-5) @ Cincinnati (11-5):
The first two games this season in this very evenly-matched rivalry have both gone to the road team, but I think that the Bengals may find a way to break that trend. The Steelers have won four in a row while the Bengals faltered and lost their last two but keep in mind that Cincinnati has been on cruise control for the last couple weeks with little to play for. I see little evidence to persuade me to pick the Steelers. As long as Willie Parker is the number one back, Pittsburgh will not have the consistent running game it needs to hold down a team like the Bengals. Parker has been inconsistent all year in every respect except one: his average yards per carry have dropped off by an astonishing 2 yards per carry from the 3rd quarter to the 4th. This statistic sums up why Willie Parker will never be a reliable NFL back; a dependable starting running back gets stronger as the game goes on while Parker weakens, which is why he should be a change of pace runner instead of the number one guy. It should also be noted that not only does he not finish well, he doesn’t start well either, averaging only 3 yards per carry over his first 5 carries of the game. Note too that Parkers’ inconsistency has mirrored that of the Steelers: he averaged 5.3 yards per carry in Pittsburgh wins this year and only 3.3 in losses. Parker’s inability to establish the running game early will help put the Steelers into a hole that I can’t see them digging themselves out of. They can’t win a shootout with the Bengals and that’s what I forsee happening if they can’t establish the run early.
My Pick: Bengals
Last Week (although I didn’t post them):
9-7
And this week….Wildcard Madness!!
Only one of these games is a sure thing and that involves one team beating a team that has two more wins than them. Without further ado…
Washington (10-6) @ Tampa Bay (10-6):
The Buccaneers are of course the home team here but I see both teams being fundamentally flawed and consistently inconsistent. Both teams have shown the ability to look great one week and abysmal the next. But, I have more faith in the ‘skins who have two offensive studs (Clinton Portis and Santana Moss) who have remained dependable throughout the season. I have no idea what they’re going to get from Mark Brunell (especially with his knee injury), but those two guys have been constants all year. Chris Simms has made a lot of strides this year but I am still remembering the shellacking they took against the Patriots a few weeks ago when he couldn’t muster a single point out of their offense. Cadillac Williams? I have no idea what kind of rushing stats he is going to put up. In a match-up of pretenders, I’ll take the road team here, who have won five in a row…but I wouldn’t put any money down on it.
My Pick: Redskins
Jacksonville (12-4) @ New England (10-6):
I would like to note that the Jaguars nearly lost to the Texans (twice) and beat the ‘9ers by a score of 10-9. Their gaudy record is deceiving (they only beat three teams with winning records) and despite the difference in their records, the Patriots are a far superior team. New England has everybody back healthy now and they look a lot like the team that beat the Eagles in Jacksonville last season. If the Pats are going to get knocked out of the playoffs, it sure as hell isn’t going to be this week…
My Pick: Patriots
My SAFE PICK OF THE WEEK
Carolina (10-6) @ New York (11-5):
This one is another toss-up…The Giants are looking pretty beat-up right now but the Panthers look to me like they are also pretenders, while the Giants seem like potential contenders. Tiki Barber is going to have another huge game. The question is of course, what is Eli Manning going to do? Jake Delhomme is an above average quarterback and should throw a touchdown or two to Steve Smith. Can Eli put something together this week and give them the balanced attack that they will need to advance? I think he will but I wouldn’t put any money on it…
My Pick: Giants
Pittsburgh (11-5) @ Cincinnati (11-5):
The first two games this season in this very evenly-matched rivalry have both gone to the road team, but I think that the Bengals may find a way to break that trend. The Steelers have won four in a row while the Bengals faltered and lost their last two but keep in mind that Cincinnati has been on cruise control for the last couple weeks with little to play for. I see little evidence to persuade me to pick the Steelers. As long as Willie Parker is the number one back, Pittsburgh will not have the consistent running game it needs to hold down a team like the Bengals. Parker has been inconsistent all year in every respect except one: his average yards per carry have dropped off by an astonishing 2 yards per carry from the 3rd quarter to the 4th. This statistic sums up why Willie Parker will never be a reliable NFL back; a dependable starting running back gets stronger as the game goes on while Parker weakens, which is why he should be a change of pace runner instead of the number one guy. It should also be noted that not only does he not finish well, he doesn’t start well either, averaging only 3 yards per carry over his first 5 carries of the game. Note too that Parkers’ inconsistency has mirrored that of the Steelers: he averaged 5.3 yards per carry in Pittsburgh wins this year and only 3.3 in losses. Parker’s inability to establish the running game early will help put the Steelers into a hole that I can’t see them digging themselves out of. They can’t win a shootout with the Bengals and that’s what I forsee happening if they can’t establish the run early.
My Pick: Bengals
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