And The Plot Thickens…

Week 2 of the NFL playoffs is upon us, but before we analyze this week’s games, let’s take a moment to recap what went on last week:

My Overall Record 2-2
Safe Picks 1-0

That 2-2 record that you read above is a bit misleading. I will admit that I read way too much into Bill Simmons’ man-crush on Eli Manning and ignored the fact that the Giants’ secondary has been suspect all year. I will also admit that I gave John Fox way too little credit even after seeing him take the Panthers to the Super Bowl two years ago solely on defensive ingenuity and tenacity. I’m not alone here though as the majority of sports analysts around the country also made the same mistakes because they used the same flawed logic that I did. The Panthers stacked the line of scrimmage to stop Tiki Barber and forced Eli Manning to throw the ball, which he failed to do successfully. Then, once Carolina established a lead and the running game was essentially a moot point, they sent blitzes at Eli left and right, forcing him into three interceptions. The younger Manning may well be a great quarterback in the NFL one day, but by no means is that day now, despite what the media has been telling us all season, and the playoff-tested Panthers capitalized on his inconsistency.
As for the other game I missed though…I think we can all agree that had Carson Palmer not been injured on the first play from scrimmage, that game would have had a different outcome. I’m not a seer; I can’t predict when MVP candidates are going to get injured and open the door for their team to lose to a mediocre opponent.

Anyway, what’s past is past, what’s done is done…Moving on to this week:

Washington (10-6, 4-4 away) at Seattle (13-3, 8-0 home):
Washington’s defense has been absolutely filthy during their winning streak that they rode to the playoffs and again in their win in Tampa Bay last week. Still, it’s hard for me to take this team seriously when their QB, Mark Brunell, couldn’t even put together 50 yards passing. I know you can’t bail on a QB when you’re in the second round of the playoffs, but Brunell is hurt and it is affecting his play. He hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards since Week 10 and hasn’t completed more than half of his passes since Week 15 against the Giants. If the Redskins fall behind and Brunell struggles, look for Gibbs to put Patrick Ramsey into the game. I think that Bill Simmons’ assessment is a little bit exaggerated (He predicted the Seahawks to win 30-6). Washington’s defense will keep them in the game but in the end Seattle will move on without too much trouble and move to 9-0 at home this year.

My Pick: Seahawks

New England (10-6, 5-3 away) at Denver (13-3, 8-0 home):
Yes, this game is being played in Denver. Yes, the thin Mile High air will be a daunting obstacle for the Patriots. Yes, the Broncos are undefeated at home this year. And yes, they beat the Patriots in Denver earlier this season, 28-20. But, as long as we are throwing out statistics…Since 2001, the Patriots are 6-0 against teams that beat them earlier in the season. Overall, they are 18-3 during that span in rematches against teams that they already played. Throwing the stats out the window though, consider this: The Patriots played the Broncos earlier in the year with a team that was—at best—half strength. Furthermore, it is no secret that the Broncos’ offense is fueled first and foremost by their running game. The Patriots have had the best rushing defense in the league over the past six weeks and I expect this trend to continue tonight. This will force Jake the Snake to make plays in the passing game to lead the Broncos to victory. Mike Shannahan has hidden Plummer’s weaknesses all season, but if their running game is exposed, he will be exposed as well. It is surprising how many analysts think that Denver is going to win but that will just help Belichick fire up his troops by making them feel disrespected.

My Pick: Patriots
MY FIRST SAFE PICK

Pittsburgh (11-5, 6-2 away) at Indianapolis (14-2, 7-1 home):
I really shouldn’t be writing this little blurb right now. If Carson Palmer hadn’t been injured on his first pass attempt of the game, we might have an actual game on our hands during this spot. But, we don’t. Peyton Manning will expose the Steelers’ weak secondary and the Colts will win big!

My Pick: Colts
MY SECOND SAFE PICK

Carolina (11-5, 6-2 away) at Chicago (11-5, 7-1 home):
Despite what the Bears have done this season, very few people expect them to win this game. "Their playoff inexperience will hinder them and no one can stop Steve Smith." No one can stop Steve Smith? I seem to remember the Bears holding him down enough in their game earlier in the year to win 13-3. The Bears are also being lambasted for playing Rex Grossman over Kyle Orton when Orton has played every game this year except one. Well, the Bears are certainly not giving up much with the quarterback change, as Orton (who was the lowest ranked QB in the league) has produced no offense whatsoever and been handed the few touchdown passes he has by turnovers caused by their defense. Grossman, although certainly not Peyton Manning, gives them the chance to make a couple big plays downfield. A couple big plays will be all that Chicago, led as always by their defense, needs to advance in this low-scoring affair. The Panthers have been consistently inconsistent all season long and I expect a let down after last week’s huge win over the Giants.

My Pick: Bears