Why the hell is there an NFL game tonight?

Finally, I am back on the winning side of things. Let’s see if my Thanksgiving luck carries over to the token non-Thanksgiving Thursday game…

Baltimore (9-2, 4-1 away)
at
Cincinnati (6-5, 2-3 home)

It’s redemption time for the Bengals. Last time these two teams met, with a chance to come back, T.J. Houshmandzadeh was mugged by Samiki Rolles without a whistle. I don’t think that the Bengals have forgotten that and I think that they will be motivated to get back at their division rivals. The Ravens’ offense has been playing really well but I don’t think that they can beat the Bengals in a shootout. Their defense will have to have an inspired performance in order for them to win in Cincinnati and I don’t see that happening. Carson Palmer is playing far too well right now (three TD passes or more each of the past three weeks) and he has three top-tier receivers at his disposal. The Ravens’ secondary is good but somebody out of Chris Henry, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh is bound to burn them. The AFC playoff picture is about to get a whole lot more interesting…

My Pick: Redemption is a dish best served in Ohio
SAFE PICK

TGIM

Well, although I am back on the winning side of things, this week still left a bad taste in my mouth. I would be embarrassed to be a Giant or Jaguar fan right now…

But let’s get down to business…

Green Bay (4-6, 3-2 away)
at
Seattle (6-4, 4-1 home)

Storylines abound…Despite his injury last week, Favre returns to start his 252nd consecutive game and continue his pursuit of Dan Marino’s all-time touchdown record. The mentor (Favre) faces the student (Matt Hasselbeck) who is returning from a knee injury that has sidelined him for the past month. Last year’s MVP (Shaun Alexander) is ready to play his first full game since his return from a foot injury that has sidelined him for most of the year. What it really boils down to is this: the Packers’ running backs and offensive line are banged up. Favre will have to carry the Packers in order to win this game, and, as he is hobbled by a couple of bad ankles and a strained muscle, that is quite a tall order. I don’t think that he will be up to the task in hostile territory, facing the defending NFC champs who are finally back at full-strength.

My Pick: Seahawks seize control of the NFC West
SAFE PICK

Pilgrim's Progress...

I had many things to be thankful for this Thanksgiving: Turkey, mashed potatoes, stuffing, a cult-like prayer ceremony before dinner with my righteous right-leaning relatives, a dominating poker tournament win…and having all three of my Thanksgiving picks go in my favor. Let’s hope that the Pilgrims saved me some leftovers for the weekend, because I could really use some help right now…

Last Week: 7-9
(SAFE PICKS: 3-2)

Season: 89-71
(SAFE PICKS: 42-23)



New Orleans (6-4, 3-2 away)
at
Atlanta (5-5, 3-2 home)

The Falcons really need this win and they are playing at home…but, the Saints really need this win too, and their passing game has been outstanding this season while the Atlanta secondary has been atrocious. I’ll give the nod to Drew Brees here…he has averaged over 400 passing yards the past three weeks and while I think he may bring that average down a bit this week, I still see him throwing for over 300 yards and several touchdowns. Stick a fork in the Falcons…they’re done.

My Pick: Saints win an NFC South battle on the road

Jacksonville (6-4, 1-3 away)
at
Buffalo (4-6, 2-2 home)

The Jaguars really surprised me by dismantling the Giants on Monday night. Their defense looked better than then they have looked all season despite all of the players that they have lost to injury. They should have no trouble shutting down Losman and a likely tentative McGahee (returning from a serious rib injury). Their offense is still hindered by their receivers’ hands but Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are pretty reliable in the ground game. I’ll take Jacksonville against any team not from Houston right now…

My Pick: I’m exaggerating slightly in the above statement but they’ll pull out a win against the Bills

Cincinnati (5-5, 3-2 away)
at
Cleveland (3-7, 1-4 home)

Earlier in the season, the Browns gave the Bengals some trouble in Cincinnati. This time around, despite the fact that the Browns have been playing well, I think the Bengals will have their way. Their offense is on fire right now and they need a win to stay in the playoff hunt.

My Pick: Bengals claw down their in-state rivals
SAFE PICK

San Francisco (5-5, 1-3 away)
at
St. Louis (4-6, 2-2 home)

The 49ers beat the Rams already this season and are riding high after their win over the division-leading Seahawks last week. Naturally, I am picking against them because there will be a letdown after the win against Seattle and because they won’t be able to beat the Rams, who are a superior team, twice in one season. Gotcha! I learned my lesson after picking against Houston in their second game against Jacksonville. The ‘9ers have the Rams’ number and St. Louis is really struggling right now. Frank Gore has looked as impressive as any running back not known by their initials this season. San Francisco…so hot right now!

My Pick: Ridin’ the smog heat wave…

Arizona (2-8, 0-4 away)
at
Minnesota (4-6, 2-3 home)

The Vikings were impressive for the first third of the season but the combination of injuries to their offensive line, a non-existent passing game and an inconsistent secondary have doomed them to mediocrity. A finally healthy Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are chomping at the bit to get on the artificial turf and tear things up.

My Pick: The Cardinals pick up their first road win of the season

Houston (3-7, 1-4 away)
at
New York Jets (5-5, 2-3 home)

The Jets’ mediocre kryptonite team is the Browns…anyone else that they are supposed to beat, they will.

My Pick: Jets win at home and move back over .500
SAFE PICK

Carolina (6-4, 2-2 away)
at
Washington (3-7, 2-2 home)

I haven’t done the recipe gimmick in a while…let’s give it another go:
A rookie quarterback in his second career start, backed by an inconsistent offensive line + a surging defense powered by the best pass rusher in the league + the worst pass defense in the league + the fastest and best overall receiver in the league = Tell your kids to cover their eyes…

My Pick: Panthers overpower the ‘skins
SAFE PICK

Pittsburgh (4-6, 1-4 away)
at
Baltimore (8-2, 4-1 home)

Take a good look at the Baltimore Ravens and tell me with a straight face that they are a legit 8-2 team. Then, take a good look at the Pittsburgh Steelers and tell me, given their track record and their personnel, that they are a 4-6 team. Justice will prevail…if the ghosts of the Pilgrims will it to be so of course.

My Pick: The Steelers will give me something else to be thankful for
SAFE PICK

Oakland (2-8, 0-5 away)
at
San Diego (8-2, 4-0 home)

Oakland is winless on the road and has an awful offense…San Diego is undefeated at home and has an overpowering offense. That’s all you really need to know about this game…

My Pick: The Chargers win at home in convincing fashion
SAFE PICK

New York Giants (6-4, 3-2 away)
at
Tennessee (3-7, 1-3 home)

The Giants, after losing two straight, really need to win this game. The Titans have played well as of late but they are facing a team that is much more talented than they are and is desperate.

My Pick: Chalk up a much-needed win for the G-men
SAFE PICK

Chicago (9-1, 5-0 away)
at
New England (7-3, 2-3 home)

My name may not be Dennis Green but I know who the Bears are: a very talented team on both sides of the ball that is prone to offensive and subsequent defensive lapses when their quarterback has a bad game. I’m not sure who the Patriots are. I’ve seen them look both dominating and diminutive this season. After this game, I think I will have a much better idea of what this team is capable of this season. Theoretically, Belichick’s confusing blitzing schemes will wreck havoc on Rex Grossman and force him into many turnovers. Theoretically, Brady will spread the ball all around the field and, given ample opportunity to pick the Bears’ defense apart, will do so. Will that play out on Sunday? Let's wait and see…

My Pick: My money’s on Brady and the Pats but it’s a pretty small wager

Philadelphia (5-5, 2-2 away)
at
Indianapolis (9-1, 5-0 home)

The Eagles just lost their leader for the season and potentially part of next year with a torn ACL. How well can you expect them to play after that? Also, Jeff Garcia is incapable of throwing the ball further than 10 yards down the field these days…

My Pick: Colts pick up where they left off 2 weeks ago…before the Cowboys got in the way of history
SAFE PICK

That’s all for now, but don’t you worry. There will definitely be some Thanksgiving leftovers in store for you before Monday night…

A Tiny Taste of Pigskin mixed with Turkey...

Another week, another sub-.500 picking performance by me…maybe I need a Thanksgiving feast to rejuvenate myself. At any rate, we have a couple of putrid Thanksgiving afternoon match-ups, as usual, and a nightcap that should be pretty exciting. Here it goes…

Miami (4-6, 1-4 away)
at
Detroit (2-8, 2-3 home)

An inconsistent passing game and an injured Kevin Jones spell trouble for the hometown Lions in the early game. Look for Joey Harrington to get the best of his old team in his return to Detroit. Miami’s surging and their defense is playing superbly right now…

My Pick: Dolphins keep rolling
SAFE PICK (If Kevin Jones doesn’t play)

Tampa Bay (3-7, 0-4 away)
at
Dallas (6-4, 3-1 home)

Tampa is winless on the road this season, and for good reason: they aren’t that good. Gradkowski has played well enough to keep them in games, but not well enough to win most of them. Dallas just knocked off the previously undefeated Colts on Sunday, so one might expect there to be a bit of a letdown in a game played four days after, but I don’t expect them to lose here. Their front line will harass Gradkowski all afternoon and their offense is rolling right now.

My Pick: Cowboys corral another win

Denver (7-3, 4-1 away)
at
Kansas City (6-4, 4-1 home)

The Broncos have to be a bit rattled after they blew a 24-7 lead to the Chargers at home and ended up losing on Sunday. Now they have to play a game four days after, in Arrowhead, the toughest place to play in the NFL. The Broncos’ pass defense looked solid earlier in the year but it has struggled as of late. I expect to see Trent Green, now that he has shaken off the rust from not playing for half of a season, pick them apart as well. And Larry Johnson is another top-flight runner that, like Tomlinson, is good enough to neutralize Denver’s tough run defense.

My Pick: Chiefs win their 5th game at home this season
SAFE PICK

Have a great Thanksgiving everyone…I’m off to eat some turkey and play me some video games…

I am speechless...

I am without speech!
After the way things played out picks-wise and fantasy-wise this week, I really have nothing to say. I could say that I am demoralized and despondent but even that would not completely capture the depths of my emotions.


New York Giants (6-3, 3-1 away)
at
Jacksonville (5-4, 4-1 home)

Two teams with great running games and banged-up defenses playing on Monday Night…I’ll take the team with the better passing game (even with Eli’s recent struggles). Although the Giants are on the road, as the Texans showed us, the Jaguars can be beaten at home. And their receivers drop way too many passes to be successful. They remind me of the Seahawks team that missed the playoffs a couple years ago because Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson couldn’t catch the ball.

My Pick: Giants win on the road
SAFE PICK

Say it ain't so...

My guarantee was a heartbreaker…
Perhaps it would have been more effective had I actually put something on the line. Perhaps it would have been more effective had I not overanalyzed my picks.
Perhaps it would have been more effective had I not been on the losing end of two tossups.
Perhaps I better stop making redundant excuses for myself and move on…

Last Week: 7-9
(SAFE PICKS: 4-4)

Season: 82-62
(SAFE PICKS: 39-21)

Pittsburgh (3-6, 0-4 away)
at
Cleveland (3-6, 1-3 home)

The Steelers are winless on the road and the Browns are only 1-3 at home…something’s got to give...Most likely one or both teams’ secondaries, which have both been awful this season. Roethlisberger should be able to have a huge game here and lead his team to victory, but he’s been so inconsistent this year that I don’t completely trust him. The Steelers do have a huge advantage in the running department as Willie Parker is 4th in the league in rushing and is always a threat to break a big run. Rueben Droughns? He’s not awful but his offensive line is which really hinders his running…

My Pick: Steelers pull out their first road win

New England (6-3, 4-0 away)
at
Green Bay (4-5, 1-3 home)

The Patriots are and always will be my team, but they have me worried right now. Everyone in the media keeps repeating that it would be impossible for Belichick/Brady to lose three games in a row but I am not so sure. While the good ol’ gunslinger Brett Favre can be stubborn and interception-prone at times, the Patriots really lack the personnel to stop their passing game right now. Driver and Jennings are both top-flight receivers and will have a field-day against the Patriots’ severely depleted secondary. Both of New England’s starting safeties (Rodney Harrison and Asante Samuel) are out and their starting cornerbacks (Ellis Hobbs and Eugene Wilson) are listed as questionable. The New England offense is going to have to play at a level light years ahead of where they were last week and it’s going to be tough for them to pull this out on the road against a team that needs the win more than they do.

My Pick: Packers shock the media and move to .500

Oakland (2-7, 0-4 away)
Kansas City (5-4, 3-1 home)

Damon Huard did a nice job holding down the fort, but now Trent Green, one of the most productive quarterbacks over the last five years, is back in action. He may be a bit rusty and have some trouble against a surprisingly good Oakland secondary, but the Chiefs’ improved defense will have no trouble smothering the Raiders’ non-existent passing game regardless of whether it is Walter or Brooks running the show.

My Pick: Chiefs pick up the win at home
SAFE PICK

Minnesota (4-5, 2-2 away)
at
Miami (3-6, 2-2 home)

I still don’t trust the Dolphins (especially the Harrington-led passing game), but their defense has really come to life the past couple weeks. With Hutchinson and Richardson out for the rest of the season, the Vikings’ running game is going to be hampered and their passing game has been anemic of late, to say the least. I can’t see the Vikes getting it together this week on the road against a team that is playing really good defensively.

My Pick: The ‘Phins finish off the Vikings’ playoff hopes
SAFE PICK

Cincinnati (4-5, 2-2 away)
at
New Orleans (6-3, 3-1 home)

With both teams’ offenses lighting it up right now, I expect a shootout. There is no way that either team’s defense can stop the other team’s offense so I see this coming down to whoever has the ball in the final seconds pulling out the win. I’ll give the Bengals the edge since they really need the win.

My Pick: Bengals win a wild one and move back to .500

Chicago (8-1, 4-0 away)
at
New York Jets (5-4, 2-2 home)

The Jets played a great game last week when they beat the Patriots but there is bound to be a letdown this week. Chicago is not a team that you want to have a letdown game against. They will destroy a team that is not mentally prepared to play with them. The Bears will likely jump out to a big lead and then ride Thomas Jones (against the second worst rush defense in the league) the rest of the way.

My Pick: DA BEARS!
SAFE PICK

Tennessee (2-7, 1-4 away)
at
Philadelphia (5-4, 3-2 home)

The Eagles could overlook this game but I don’t think that they will. At 5-4 in a very competitive division, they can’t afford to. The Titans have a pretty solid running game but Vince Young can only do so much in the passing game. If the Eagles’ explosive offense stakes them out to a big lead and Young if forced to throw the ball a lot, it will be a long day for the Titans. Young, at this point in his career, makes way too many mistakes throwing the ball down the field and as such is prone to interceptions.

My Pick: Eagles soar to victory! (Eat your heart out USA Today)

Washington (3-6, 1-4 away)
at
Tampa Bay (2-7, 2-3 home)

Tampa had been playing pretty well, but they have to be demoralized after their Monday Night loss to the Panthers when they wasted countless opportunities. The Redskins will be without Clinton Portis but Betts is a solid backup and I think that new starting QB Jason Campbell will spark the passing game, which has been stagnant the last couple weeks and in much need of a change.

My Pick: Redskins make the demoralized Buccaneers walk the plank

St. Louis (4-5, 2-3 away)
at
Carolina (5-4, 3-2 home)

The Rams’ recent floundering and the Panthers’ emotional victory last week aside, let’s focus on the most important match-up here: the Julius Peppers-led Panthers front line versus the Orlando Pace-less banged up offensive line of the Rams. Bulger is going to see pressure all afternoon and I don’t think that he is going to have enough time in the pocket to make any big plays. He really hasn’t had a bad game all year, so I think he’s due…

My Pick: Panthers sack the Rams

Atlanta (5-4, 2-2 away)
at
Baltimore (7-2, 3-1 home)

Michael Vick always does exactly the opposite of what you expect him to do. His consistent inconsistency is quite uncanny. Everyone was ready to pronounce him the best passer in the league three weeks ago after he had put up 40+ points on the Steelers and tore apart the Bengals. Since then, the Falcons have lost two games to teams that, statistically, they should have destroyed: the Lions and then the Browns. So now everyone has given up on Vick and the Falcons and is counting them out of the playoff hunt…everyone that is, except for me. I’m expecting Vick to have a huge game against the Ray Lewis-less Ravens defense, which has looked much less dominating in recent weeks but has benefited from an improved offense.

My Pick: Falcons “shock” the Ravens
SAFE PICK

Buffalo (3-6, 1-4 away)
at
Houston (3-6, 2-2 home)

So, the Texans are favored to win their second game in a row for the first time in recent memory? I’m not buying it. The Bills’ defense has looked really good the last few weeks and the Texans’ offense, despite their victory last week, has really regressed. Houston’s running game is again up in the air as Lundy has reverted to early season form and Gado hasn’t been much better. As for the Bills…McGahee is still out but Anthony Thomas has done an excellent job filling in the last two weeks and I expect him to have another solid outing against an awful Texans’ run defense.

My Pick: The Bills take care of business on the road

Detroit (2-7, 0-4 away)
at
Arizona (1-8, 1-4 home)

I’m still not sure how the Lions managed to lose to the 49ers last week but I am confident that they won’t lose to two awful NFC West teams in a row. Their offense is too good and their opponent’s too bad for that to happen. Then again, it was a similar thought process that made me incorrectly pick Detroit last week, so who knows?

My Pick: Lions pounce on the Cardinals

Seattle (6-3, 2-2 away)
at
San Francisco (4-5, 3-2 home)

I’m not sure why there is the perception that the 49ers will pull off the upset here. They have upset two teams in row to seemingly get back into the playoff race, but their team really isn’t that great. Gore has played well but their passing game has been only so-so and their defense has been the beneficiary of a lot of luck. With Shaun Alexander making his emotional return and Seattle wanting to get him re-acclimated with the offense, there won’t be any letdown from their last-second victory over the Rams last week.

My Pick: Seahawks capitalize on Alexander’s return

Indianapolis (9-0, 4-0 away)
at
Dallas (5-4, 2-1 home)

Many media members expect the Colts to lose this game, but after how lethargically they played against the Bills, I expect Tony Dungy to have his team fired up this week. The Colts do seem to play down to the level of their opponent at times but there will be none of that this week in Dallas. Romo will probably have a solid game and Julius Jones should tear it up against the league’s worst rush defense, but Peyton Manning will manhandle the Cowboy’s suspect secondary.

My Pick: Colts move to 10-0

San Diego (7-2, 3-2 away)
at
Denver (7-2, 3-1 home)

History repeats itself. This is a fact of life. A fact that LaDanian Tomlinson, who has never had more than 75 rushing yards against Denver in his career, knows all too well. Denver is great at stopping the run regardless of opponent, but they really have Tomlinson’s number (holding him to 3.4 yards per carry in his career). This will continue again on Sunday, forcing Rivers to air it up against two of the best cover corners in the league in a hostile environment where the opposing defense feeds off of the crowd. I don’t think that this looks like a good formula for success for San Diego.

My Pick: The Broncos show why “D” is the first letter in their city’s name

15 down, 1 to go. Check back on Monday for details on the Jack Del Rio Bowl...

Cold Turkey's Gettin' Stale...

…tonight I’m eating crow! So much for my guarantee. Nine incorrect picks later and I am left picking up the pieces yet again. Can I salvage a 7-9 week tonight? I guess it’s worth a try…

Tampa Bay (2-6, 0-3 away)
at
Carolina (4-4, 2-2 home)

In the last two games that they’ve played, the Tampa Bay cornerbacks have been burned by speedy receivers (Marques Colston and Plaxico Burress). They’ll encounter an even tougher hurdle tonight, facing Steve Smith, the most explosive receiver in the game. Coming off a BYE week, I am pretty sure that John Fox will have a pretty good offensive game plan that will implement the finally healthy Smith as much as possible. Bruce Gradikowski was a feel-good story at first, but in his last couple outings he hasn’t looked too impressive. I don’t think he has what it takes to lead his team to victory on the road against a hungry, rested and well-prepared Panthers team.

My Pick: Steve Smith leads the way as the Panthers roll
SAFE PICK

A Shiny, Red Guarantee!

Yep, it’s that time again. The time of the week when you read my blog, expecting insightful analysis that will help you decide which team you should pick in each NFL game. Well, despite three straight weeks of picking fewer games right than wrong, I still think that I provide this service. I’m just in a bit of a slump…which I guarantee I will break out of this week! That’s right, I am guaranteeing that I will pick more games correctly than incorrectly this week. That doesn’t sound like much I know, but given my recent history it will be a huge step forward. For those of you scoring at home, here are the aforementioned numbers:

Last Week: 6-8
(SAFE PICKS: 2-4)

Season: 75-53
(SAFE PICKS: 35-17)

Cleveland (2-6, 1-3 away)
at
Atlanta (5-3, 3-1 home)

As it turns out, Michael Vick isn’t the second coming of Joe Montana after all. The Lions dominated the Falcons on both sides of the ball last week and I think it’s safe to say that all expectations for Atlanta and Vick have now been tempered. Funny, I picked that to happen. Granted, it was one of only six games that I picked correctly, but I still feel like I should be allowed to pat myself on the back for picking an upset that wasn’t even on anyone else’s radar. Anyway, about this game…The Browns have looked better the last couple weeks, beating the Jets and playing a tight game with the Chargers. I don’t think that they can beat the Falcons in Atlanta though. Charlie Frye may be able to generate some yardage through the air and put some points on the board, but it won’t be enough. The Falcons are the best in the business at running the ball and the Browns’ rushing defense is awful.

My Pick: Falcons run to victory at home
SAFE PICK

San Diego (6-2, 2-2 away)
at
Cincinnati (4-4, 2-2 home)

It’s time for the Bengals’ talented offensive players to stop bickering, shut up and play. They have the most talent in the AFC Central and they should be ahead in the division. Instead, they are staring up at the Ravens after losing to them last week. The Bengals need to get their act together quickly or they will be watching the playoffs from their living rooms. They are perfectly capable of beating the Chargers at home in a must-win game, but will they? They need to start generating more of the big plays that fueled their explosive offense last season and it all starts with Carson Palmer. Because Palmer’s throwing mechanics are still a little off, the Bengals have thrown the ball down the field quite a bit less than last season which has limited their offense and Palmer and Chad Johnson’s statistics. These guys are too good to play this poorly. I expect them to pull it together this week and pick up the upset win at home.

My Pick: Bengals get back on track

San Francisco (3-5, 0-3 away)
at
Detroit (2-6, 2-2 home)

Last week’s 9-3 ‘9ers win over the Vikings posed the following question for us amateur football analysts: Is the San Francisco defense that good or is the Minnesota offense that bad? I’ll take the latter. The Lions have a potent passing game and I expect them to continue to pile up yards through the air. Kevin Jones should have another big day on the ground as well.

My Pick: Lions bring the ‘9ers back to earth
SAFE PICK

Baltimore (6-2, 3-1 away)
at
Tennessee (2-6, 1-2 home)

The Titans have a good running game but they inexplicably abandoned it last time out. If they can take some pressure off of Vince Young by establishing the run, their defense will be able to hold down McNair and the Ravens and keep this thing close. I still see Baltimore pulling it out though.

My Pick: Ravens hold on for the win

Buffalo (3-5, 1-3 away)
at
Indianapolis (8-0, 4-0 home)

The Bills did next to nothing on offense against an awful Packers defense last week and lost their only bona fide talent, McGahee, with three broken ribs. Creating a couple of turnovers on defense and making one or two plays on offense will get you a win against Green Bay but I can’t see this success translating over to a road game against the Colts.

My Pick: Colts roll to 9-0
SAFE PICK

Kansas City (5-3, 2-2 away)
at
Miami (2-6, 1-2 home)

Miami’s one highlight of this season was their win over the previously undefeated Bears. I expect them to revert back to their earlier mediocre form this week as they face a premier running back who is tearing it up and a quarterback who takes care of the ball and mans a passing game that is efficient if not spectacular. The Chiefs look like a playoff team to me…

My Pick: Chiefs continue to roll
SAFE PICK

Green Bay (3-5, 2-2 away)
at
Minnesota (4-4, 2-2 home)

I was very disappointed in both of these teams last week. Do I really need to pick a winner here? Since I have to pick one of them, I will go with the Packers. They generated enough offense to beat the Bills but made crucial errors in the red zone which cost them the game.

My Pick: Packers beat the struggling Vikings

New York Jets (4-4, 2-2 away)
at
New England (6-2, 2-2 home)

I know that the Jets are 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per game, but I think that they have a shot in this game. The Patriots’ secondary seems a lot weaker without Rodney Harrison. If Chad Pennington can put together a solid game, he should be able to find Crotchery and Coles for some big gains. It’ll be close…

My Pick: …But I’m taking the Patriots

Washington (3-5, 1-3 away)
at
Philadelphia (4-4, 2-2 home)

The Cowboys’ copious miscues last week have given the Redskins a second life of sorts…will they take advantage of it? My bet is they won’t. Their passing defense has been awful this year and, despite their win, their secondary didn’t look any better. If Owens could actually catch the ball, they would have been blown out last week. I think that Stallworth and Brown will be able to find similar separation in the secondary and that McNabb will rebound from his abysmal performance two weeks ago. The Eagles need this win just as much as the Redskins do and with their superior personnel, they will get it.

My Pick: Eagles get back into the win column
SAFE PICK

Houston (2-6, 0-4 away)
at
Jacksonville (5-3, 4-0 home)

The Texans blew the Jaguars out in their last meeting and the Jags are out for revenge. If you lose to the Texans twice in one season, you don’t deserve to make the playoffs. Remember that, Jack Del Rio! You also don’t deserve to make the playoffs if your receivers drop half of the passes thrown their direction…but I digress. Houston will put up a few points via Carr-to-Johnson but their defense will be torn apart by Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.

My Pick: The Jaguars avenge their earlier loss in Houston
SAFE PICK

Denver (6-2, 3-1 away)
at
Oakland (2-6, 2-2 home)

Oakland’s offense is simply pathetic. Denver’s defense is really good. Enough said.

My Pick: Broncos blow out Raiders in Oakland
SAFE PICK

Dallas (4-4, 2-3 away)
at
Arizona (1-7, 1-3 home)

Romo looked really good again last week but an inexplicable combination of dropped passes, stupid penalties and a special teams meltdown cost them the win. They should have no trouble beating up on a Cardinals team that looks like it has packed it in for the season.

My Pick: Cowboys move back over .500
SAFE PICK

New Orleans (6-2, 3-1 away)
at
Pittsburgh (2-6, 2-2 home)

As sloppy as Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers’ offense have been, the defense has been equally at fault. They allowed 4 TD passes and over 40 points to a Falcons’ passing game that the Lions easily shut down last week. The Saints’ offense is rolling right now as Drew Brees keeping piling up 300 yard games and they keep winning. What do the Steelers have to counter that? Pride? I should probably give them the benefit of the doubt since they are playing at home and they did win the Super Bowl last year but they look pretty awful to me.

My Pick: Saints drive the final nail in the Steel coffin

St. Louis (4-4, 2-2 away)
at
Seattle (5-3, 3-1 home)

The Rams have been struggling lately but it has mostly been a result of ill-timed fumbles by the receivers and Steven Jackson, trying to fight for an extra yard or two. Marc Bulger continues to throw the ball efficiently and effectively and has been unfazed by the wide variety of defenses that he has had thrown at him this season. I don’t really trust the Seahawks’ secondary right now so I expect Bulger’s success to continue in Seattle. The Seahawks are still without their two offensive leaders, Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander (who is listed as doubtful but has essentially been ruled out), and I don’t think that the home field advantage will be enough for them to beat their only real division rival.

My Pick: Rams are up to the test and win in Qwest

Chicago (7-1, 3-0 away)
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New York Giants (6-2, 3-1 home)

The Bears were exposed by the Dolphins last week and things aren’t getting any easier; now, they have to travel to Giants Stadium to face a team that is playing as well as anyone in the NFC right now. The Bears’ offense isn’t clicking as well without deep threat Bernard Berrian (out with an injury) who really opens up the rest of the offense with his big play ability. Thomas Jones has been inconsistent running the ball and so now the onus for the offense is completely on Rex Grossman’s shoulders. He seems to be prone to pressure, so I expect the Giants to blitz frequently and try to force him into mistakes. On the other side of the field, the Giants get Plaxico Burress back this week. The Bears’ corners are good but they can be beat. Burress has the right combination of speed and size to be effective against them. This has all the makings of a great game and I expect it to be pretty competitive.

My Pick: I’ll take the home team here

That’s all for now…Remember, I guarantee that I will pick more of the above games correctly than incorrectly. Check back in a few days for the Monday Night pick…

My Words Don't Taste Very Good...

All right, so the ‘Tuna’ did actually know what he was doing when he benched Bledsoe for Tony Romo two weeks ago. I admit that I may have been a bit blinded by my bitterness stemming from their loss to the Giants (which Romo was almost entirely responsible for) but obviously Romo was not prepared to enter the game at halftime against possibly the best team in the division. I should have given him the benefit of the doubt and waited until after I saw him play in a game that he was prepared to play in before making any judgments. So, after the fact I will say this: Parcells knows what he’s doing and I should have realized this before. If he thought that this team could contend with Bledsoe he would have kept him as his starter regardless of his feelings on Romo. Parcells has always been committed to veteran QBs, and for him to buck this trend, there either had to be something really wrong with Bledsoe or something really special about Romo…or, a little of both. With the Eagles losing in stunning fashion yet again, the NFC East just got a whole lot more interesting…

Upsets and surprises (Vick, unexpected injuries, the Pitt defense falling apart, etc.) have abounded the last couple weeks, and as such, my picking record has suffered. This week my goal is to return to respectability but if things keep going the way they have, all bets are off…

Last Week: 5-9
(SAFE PICKS: 2-3)

Season: 69-45
(SAFE PICKS: 33-13)

Green Bay (3-4, 2-1 away)
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Buffalo (2-5, 1-2 home)

Now that Favre has developed chemistry with his receivers and the running game has picked things up, the Packers don’t look half bad. If the defense continues to improve and they get a little luck, they could be in the hunt for the last playoff spot in the NFC. At any rate, they have too much offensive firepower for Buffalo to handle.

My Pick: Packers climb back to .500
SAFE PICK

Miami (1-6, 0-4 away)
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Chicago (7-0, 4-0 home)

Let’s see…how do I put this? Miami offense bad, Chicago defense good? I mean that pretty much sums up this game. When Joey Harrington is your best option at quarterback, your offense has some serious issues. I was pretty tickled by Bill Simmons’ assessment of the Dolphins’ QB situation over the last couple years, so I thought I would share it with you guys, just for kicks:
“Has there even been anything like Chris Chambers basically running 75 wind sprints every Sunday for five straight years while his QBs bounced the ball in front of him or sailed passes over his head? For all we know, Chambers might be one of the five greatest receivers of all-time. Is there a way to simulate how his career would have unfolded playing on the Colts?”
In my fantasy league, I actually tried to trade for Chambers early in the season, expecting to see the Culpepper of 2002. Needless to say, I am glad I didn’t make that trade…and not for any lack of talent or effort on the part of Chambers.

My Pick: Chicago destroys Miami
SAFE PICK

Atlanta (5-2, 2-1 away)
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Detroit (1-6, 1-2 home)

Yes, I know, Vick has looked superb the past couple weeks…but how long can it last? We’ve seen flashes of brilliance from him before, but he’s never been able to consistently sustain it. I’m not convinced yet. And more importantly, Atlanta’s pass defense has looked awful during their last few games. This is something that they need to fix if they want to have any chance of competing in the playoffs. It’s also a weakness that I think Detroit can capitalize on. Jon Kitna has quietly thrown for over 1800 yards and 9 touchdowns this year, and should have no trouble adding to these stats on Sunday. I also don’t really trust the Falcons’ rush defense, which plays well at times but gives up big plays. I think Kevin Jones will continue his recent success and the Lions’ offense will have no problem putting points on the board. As for their defense? They’re pretty inconsistent themselves, but after the ridiculous statistics that Vick has piled up in the passing game the last couple games, he is due for a dud.

My Pick: The Lions ride Kitna, Jones and Williams to an upset at home

Kansas City (4-3, 1-2 away)
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St. Louis (4-3, 2-1 home)

The Chiefs just knocked off the NFC West leading Seahawks…surely they are up to the task of beating the second place Rams as an encore? Not so much…keep in mind that they played Seattle at Arrowhead (not to sound like a broken record, but one of the toughest places to play in the NFL) and the Seahawks were without their All-Pro Quarterback and Running Back (Hasselbeck and Alexander for those of you living under a rock for the last couple years). The Rams need a win to keep pace with the Seahawks (who currently hold the tiebreaker and are playing the Raiders this week) and while the Chiefs’ pass defense is much improved, it won’t be able to hold down Bulger, Bruce and Holt.

My Pick: Rams win at home

Houston (2-5, 0-3 away)
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New York Giants (5-2, 2-1 home)

With the Bears on the horizon, in a very competitive division and conference, the Giants can’t afford to look past this game…and they won’t. The Texans are extremely overmatched defensively and, on a potentially windy day, Tiki Barber will punish them time and time again.

My Pick: Giants look huge against the inferior Texans
SAFE PICK

New Orleans (5-2, 2-1 away)
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Tampa Bay (2-5, 2-2 home)

While I admit that the Saints have been playing a little over their head so far this season, I’m not ready to write them off yet. Their loss last week to the Ravens was as much bad luck as it was being outplayed: Two of Brees’s interceptions bounced out of his receivers’ hands. I think they will shrug off last week’s loss and continue to roll. Eli Manning threw jump ball after jump ball to Plaxico Burress last week against the Buccaneers’ undersized cornerbacks and I expect Brees to do the same thing with his tall and athletic weapon, Marques Colston.

My Pick: The Saints regain their swagger

Dallas (4-3, 2-2 away)
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Washington (2-5, 1-2 home)

The Redskins have had an extra week to prepare for this game but I can’t see that being much of a factor. Their defense has been abysmal this season and I can’t see that changing on Sunday. Their only hope is to switch defenses and hope to confuse Tony Romo, but after his performance against the Panthers, I’m not convinced that this will work very well. And how are the Redskins going to score any points? Santana Moss is likely out with a hamstring injury and Clinton Portis is hobbled by an ankle injury. So much for the excitement of the Gibbs/Parcells rivalry game…

My Pick: Romo continues to ignore my disparaging comments from last week and leads his team to victory on the road
SAFE PICK

Tennessee (2-5, 1-3 away)
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Jacksonville (4-3, 3-0 home)

Believe it or not, I think that the Titans’ offense will fare better against the Jaguars’ defense than the Eagles did last week. This is because their offense is extremely dependent on the run and because I expect it to be less windy this week than it was in Philly last Sunday. It is also because the Titans are playing well right now, coming off of two straight wins and hoping to make it three in a row. Unfortunately for them, the Jaguars have Maurice Drew and Fred Taylor. The Titans’ run defense is awful, having allowed the third most rushing yards in the AFC. Unless the Titans somehow jump out to a big lead and Garrard is forced to pass, Jacksonville will ride their backs to victory.

My Pick: Garrard holds down the fort for Leftwich and the Jags get the win at home

Cincinnati (4-3, 2-1 away)
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Baltimore (5-2, 2-1 home)

Will the real Carson Palmer please stand up? It’s about time that the Bengals started playing up to their talent level and it all starts with Palmer. If the Bengals are going to win the division, they need to make a statement in this game and prove that they are a contender. The Ravens have a solid defense but they have an inconsistent running game and their passing game is getting by on luck at the moment (Seriously, have you ever seen a team score more touchdowns on balls deflected by the defense?). Palmer is a good enough quarterback to pick the Ravens’ defense apart and McNair can only put so many points on the board. As far as I am concerned, this is the bottom line: The Bengals need to win this game to regain the swagger that they seem to have lost. If they don’t, I see the Ravens faltering, and the Steelers sneaking back in it to win the division at 9-7. Again, Baltimore is a pretender. Their running game is awful and they have caught every break possible in their passing game this year. A good defense can only take you so far…

My Pick: Bengals come out strong and take control of the division

Minnesota (4-3, 2-1 away)
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San Francisco (2-5, 2-2 home)

Yeah, so the Vikings were embarrassed by New England last week…but I think that is more a testament to the high level that the Patriots are playing at than it is a reflection of Minnesota’s team. Chester Taylor never got it going last week because the Patriots jumped out to a big lead and never looked back. He should come out strong this week and have a big game against the NFC’s 11th ranked rush defense. Brad Johnson made an uncharacteristic number of mistakes last week, which I also think was an aberration; he will play better this week as well. And the Vikings’ pass defense is much better than they showed last week as well. They will shut down the ‘9ers’ passing game and lead the way to a Viking victory.

My Pick: The Vikings prove to be resilient

Denver (5-2, 2-1 away)
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Pittsburgh (2-5, 2-1 home)

The Broncos’ defense was exposed last week by Peyton Manning and the Steelers’ backs are against the wall. Denver will be vulnerable because they are demoralized at the moment and their defensive strategy is under serious scrutiny. Roethlisberger knows that the Steelers can’t afford to lose this game and will find a way to atone for his sins last week in Oakland and will lead the Steelers to victory.

My Pick: Pittsburgh wins a must-win game
SAFE PICK

Cleveland (2-5, 1-2 away)
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San Diego (5-2, 3-0 home)

The Browns exposed the Jets’ awful run defense and took advantage of the worst game of Chad Pennington’s career to pick up their second win of the season. They better enjoy it while they can, because any good taste left in their mouths will be long gone after this game…

My Pick: Chargers win big at home
SAFE PICK

Indianapolis (7-0, 3-0 away)
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New England (6-1, 2-1 home)

Both of these teams are at the top of their games right now. Yeah this game is being hyped to death, but I expect it to live up to everyone’s expectations. Both Tom Brady (372 yards and 4 TDs last week against a solid Vikings’ defense) and Peyton Manning (345 yards, 3 TDs and he engineered the game-winning drive capped by former Patriot Adam Vinatieri’s 49 yard FG) are at the top of their games right now and I expect them to put on a show. While the Colts are undefeated and did just beat a good team that manhandled the Patriots earlier in the season, I still have to give the edge to the Pats. The edge in this rivalry has clearly gone to Brady, who is 10-3 against Manning in his career. More importantly though, the Patriots have a better defense than the Colts do and a coach who is sure to have a game-plan full of surprises for Manning to overcome. On the other side of the field, the Colts’ run defense is awful. I expect Maroney and Dillon to run all over them. Bottom Line: The Colts are due to lose a game and the Patriots have their number.

My Pick: And then there was one…(unbeaten team that is)

Oakland (2-5, 0-3 away)
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Seattle (4-3, 2-1 home)

I bet you weren’t expecting to see this pick here…what happened to my special post on the Monday Night game tradition? Well, this match-up is so bad it doesn’t deserve more than a couple sentences. The Raiders’ offense is disgustingly bad and their defense is merely average. The Seahawks are still missing Hasselbeck and Alexander but they should still be able to do enough on offense to pull out a must-win game at home.

My Pick: Seahawks win in an awful Monday Night Match-up

Until next week…You stay classy, Middlebury!