My Words Don't Taste Very Good...

All right, so the ‘Tuna’ did actually know what he was doing when he benched Bledsoe for Tony Romo two weeks ago. I admit that I may have been a bit blinded by my bitterness stemming from their loss to the Giants (which Romo was almost entirely responsible for) but obviously Romo was not prepared to enter the game at halftime against possibly the best team in the division. I should have given him the benefit of the doubt and waited until after I saw him play in a game that he was prepared to play in before making any judgments. So, after the fact I will say this: Parcells knows what he’s doing and I should have realized this before. If he thought that this team could contend with Bledsoe he would have kept him as his starter regardless of his feelings on Romo. Parcells has always been committed to veteran QBs, and for him to buck this trend, there either had to be something really wrong with Bledsoe or something really special about Romo…or, a little of both. With the Eagles losing in stunning fashion yet again, the NFC East just got a whole lot more interesting…

Upsets and surprises (Vick, unexpected injuries, the Pitt defense falling apart, etc.) have abounded the last couple weeks, and as such, my picking record has suffered. This week my goal is to return to respectability but if things keep going the way they have, all bets are off…

Last Week: 5-9
(SAFE PICKS: 2-3)

Season: 69-45
(SAFE PICKS: 33-13)

Green Bay (3-4, 2-1 away)
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Buffalo (2-5, 1-2 home)

Now that Favre has developed chemistry with his receivers and the running game has picked things up, the Packers don’t look half bad. If the defense continues to improve and they get a little luck, they could be in the hunt for the last playoff spot in the NFC. At any rate, they have too much offensive firepower for Buffalo to handle.

My Pick: Packers climb back to .500
SAFE PICK

Miami (1-6, 0-4 away)
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Chicago (7-0, 4-0 home)

Let’s see…how do I put this? Miami offense bad, Chicago defense good? I mean that pretty much sums up this game. When Joey Harrington is your best option at quarterback, your offense has some serious issues. I was pretty tickled by Bill Simmons’ assessment of the Dolphins’ QB situation over the last couple years, so I thought I would share it with you guys, just for kicks:
“Has there even been anything like Chris Chambers basically running 75 wind sprints every Sunday for five straight years while his QBs bounced the ball in front of him or sailed passes over his head? For all we know, Chambers might be one of the five greatest receivers of all-time. Is there a way to simulate how his career would have unfolded playing on the Colts?”
In my fantasy league, I actually tried to trade for Chambers early in the season, expecting to see the Culpepper of 2002. Needless to say, I am glad I didn’t make that trade…and not for any lack of talent or effort on the part of Chambers.

My Pick: Chicago destroys Miami
SAFE PICK

Atlanta (5-2, 2-1 away)
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Detroit (1-6, 1-2 home)

Yes, I know, Vick has looked superb the past couple weeks…but how long can it last? We’ve seen flashes of brilliance from him before, but he’s never been able to consistently sustain it. I’m not convinced yet. And more importantly, Atlanta’s pass defense has looked awful during their last few games. This is something that they need to fix if they want to have any chance of competing in the playoffs. It’s also a weakness that I think Detroit can capitalize on. Jon Kitna has quietly thrown for over 1800 yards and 9 touchdowns this year, and should have no trouble adding to these stats on Sunday. I also don’t really trust the Falcons’ rush defense, which plays well at times but gives up big plays. I think Kevin Jones will continue his recent success and the Lions’ offense will have no problem putting points on the board. As for their defense? They’re pretty inconsistent themselves, but after the ridiculous statistics that Vick has piled up in the passing game the last couple games, he is due for a dud.

My Pick: The Lions ride Kitna, Jones and Williams to an upset at home

Kansas City (4-3, 1-2 away)
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St. Louis (4-3, 2-1 home)

The Chiefs just knocked off the NFC West leading Seahawks…surely they are up to the task of beating the second place Rams as an encore? Not so much…keep in mind that they played Seattle at Arrowhead (not to sound like a broken record, but one of the toughest places to play in the NFL) and the Seahawks were without their All-Pro Quarterback and Running Back (Hasselbeck and Alexander for those of you living under a rock for the last couple years). The Rams need a win to keep pace with the Seahawks (who currently hold the tiebreaker and are playing the Raiders this week) and while the Chiefs’ pass defense is much improved, it won’t be able to hold down Bulger, Bruce and Holt.

My Pick: Rams win at home

Houston (2-5, 0-3 away)
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New York Giants (5-2, 2-1 home)

With the Bears on the horizon, in a very competitive division and conference, the Giants can’t afford to look past this game…and they won’t. The Texans are extremely overmatched defensively and, on a potentially windy day, Tiki Barber will punish them time and time again.

My Pick: Giants look huge against the inferior Texans
SAFE PICK

New Orleans (5-2, 2-1 away)
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Tampa Bay (2-5, 2-2 home)

While I admit that the Saints have been playing a little over their head so far this season, I’m not ready to write them off yet. Their loss last week to the Ravens was as much bad luck as it was being outplayed: Two of Brees’s interceptions bounced out of his receivers’ hands. I think they will shrug off last week’s loss and continue to roll. Eli Manning threw jump ball after jump ball to Plaxico Burress last week against the Buccaneers’ undersized cornerbacks and I expect Brees to do the same thing with his tall and athletic weapon, Marques Colston.

My Pick: The Saints regain their swagger

Dallas (4-3, 2-2 away)
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Washington (2-5, 1-2 home)

The Redskins have had an extra week to prepare for this game but I can’t see that being much of a factor. Their defense has been abysmal this season and I can’t see that changing on Sunday. Their only hope is to switch defenses and hope to confuse Tony Romo, but after his performance against the Panthers, I’m not convinced that this will work very well. And how are the Redskins going to score any points? Santana Moss is likely out with a hamstring injury and Clinton Portis is hobbled by an ankle injury. So much for the excitement of the Gibbs/Parcells rivalry game…

My Pick: Romo continues to ignore my disparaging comments from last week and leads his team to victory on the road
SAFE PICK

Tennessee (2-5, 1-3 away)
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Jacksonville (4-3, 3-0 home)

Believe it or not, I think that the Titans’ offense will fare better against the Jaguars’ defense than the Eagles did last week. This is because their offense is extremely dependent on the run and because I expect it to be less windy this week than it was in Philly last Sunday. It is also because the Titans are playing well right now, coming off of two straight wins and hoping to make it three in a row. Unfortunately for them, the Jaguars have Maurice Drew and Fred Taylor. The Titans’ run defense is awful, having allowed the third most rushing yards in the AFC. Unless the Titans somehow jump out to a big lead and Garrard is forced to pass, Jacksonville will ride their backs to victory.

My Pick: Garrard holds down the fort for Leftwich and the Jags get the win at home

Cincinnati (4-3, 2-1 away)
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Baltimore (5-2, 2-1 home)

Will the real Carson Palmer please stand up? It’s about time that the Bengals started playing up to their talent level and it all starts with Palmer. If the Bengals are going to win the division, they need to make a statement in this game and prove that they are a contender. The Ravens have a solid defense but they have an inconsistent running game and their passing game is getting by on luck at the moment (Seriously, have you ever seen a team score more touchdowns on balls deflected by the defense?). Palmer is a good enough quarterback to pick the Ravens’ defense apart and McNair can only put so many points on the board. As far as I am concerned, this is the bottom line: The Bengals need to win this game to regain the swagger that they seem to have lost. If they don’t, I see the Ravens faltering, and the Steelers sneaking back in it to win the division at 9-7. Again, Baltimore is a pretender. Their running game is awful and they have caught every break possible in their passing game this year. A good defense can only take you so far…

My Pick: Bengals come out strong and take control of the division

Minnesota (4-3, 2-1 away)
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San Francisco (2-5, 2-2 home)

Yeah, so the Vikings were embarrassed by New England last week…but I think that is more a testament to the high level that the Patriots are playing at than it is a reflection of Minnesota’s team. Chester Taylor never got it going last week because the Patriots jumped out to a big lead and never looked back. He should come out strong this week and have a big game against the NFC’s 11th ranked rush defense. Brad Johnson made an uncharacteristic number of mistakes last week, which I also think was an aberration; he will play better this week as well. And the Vikings’ pass defense is much better than they showed last week as well. They will shut down the ‘9ers’ passing game and lead the way to a Viking victory.

My Pick: The Vikings prove to be resilient

Denver (5-2, 2-1 away)
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Pittsburgh (2-5, 2-1 home)

The Broncos’ defense was exposed last week by Peyton Manning and the Steelers’ backs are against the wall. Denver will be vulnerable because they are demoralized at the moment and their defensive strategy is under serious scrutiny. Roethlisberger knows that the Steelers can’t afford to lose this game and will find a way to atone for his sins last week in Oakland and will lead the Steelers to victory.

My Pick: Pittsburgh wins a must-win game
SAFE PICK

Cleveland (2-5, 1-2 away)
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San Diego (5-2, 3-0 home)

The Browns exposed the Jets’ awful run defense and took advantage of the worst game of Chad Pennington’s career to pick up their second win of the season. They better enjoy it while they can, because any good taste left in their mouths will be long gone after this game…

My Pick: Chargers win big at home
SAFE PICK

Indianapolis (7-0, 3-0 away)
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New England (6-1, 2-1 home)

Both of these teams are at the top of their games right now. Yeah this game is being hyped to death, but I expect it to live up to everyone’s expectations. Both Tom Brady (372 yards and 4 TDs last week against a solid Vikings’ defense) and Peyton Manning (345 yards, 3 TDs and he engineered the game-winning drive capped by former Patriot Adam Vinatieri’s 49 yard FG) are at the top of their games right now and I expect them to put on a show. While the Colts are undefeated and did just beat a good team that manhandled the Patriots earlier in the season, I still have to give the edge to the Pats. The edge in this rivalry has clearly gone to Brady, who is 10-3 against Manning in his career. More importantly though, the Patriots have a better defense than the Colts do and a coach who is sure to have a game-plan full of surprises for Manning to overcome. On the other side of the field, the Colts’ run defense is awful. I expect Maroney and Dillon to run all over them. Bottom Line: The Colts are due to lose a game and the Patriots have their number.

My Pick: And then there was one…(unbeaten team that is)

Oakland (2-5, 0-3 away)
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Seattle (4-3, 2-1 home)

I bet you weren’t expecting to see this pick here…what happened to my special post on the Monday Night game tradition? Well, this match-up is so bad it doesn’t deserve more than a couple sentences. The Raiders’ offense is disgustingly bad and their defense is merely average. The Seahawks are still missing Hasselbeck and Alexander but they should still be able to do enough on offense to pull out a must-win game at home.

My Pick: Seahawks win in an awful Monday Night Match-up

Until next week…You stay classy, Middlebury!