A Shiny, Red Guarantee!

Yep, it’s that time again. The time of the week when you read my blog, expecting insightful analysis that will help you decide which team you should pick in each NFL game. Well, despite three straight weeks of picking fewer games right than wrong, I still think that I provide this service. I’m just in a bit of a slump…which I guarantee I will break out of this week! That’s right, I am guaranteeing that I will pick more games correctly than incorrectly this week. That doesn’t sound like much I know, but given my recent history it will be a huge step forward. For those of you scoring at home, here are the aforementioned numbers:

Last Week: 6-8
(SAFE PICKS: 2-4)

Season: 75-53
(SAFE PICKS: 35-17)

Cleveland (2-6, 1-3 away)
at
Atlanta (5-3, 3-1 home)

As it turns out, Michael Vick isn’t the second coming of Joe Montana after all. The Lions dominated the Falcons on both sides of the ball last week and I think it’s safe to say that all expectations for Atlanta and Vick have now been tempered. Funny, I picked that to happen. Granted, it was one of only six games that I picked correctly, but I still feel like I should be allowed to pat myself on the back for picking an upset that wasn’t even on anyone else’s radar. Anyway, about this game…The Browns have looked better the last couple weeks, beating the Jets and playing a tight game with the Chargers. I don’t think that they can beat the Falcons in Atlanta though. Charlie Frye may be able to generate some yardage through the air and put some points on the board, but it won’t be enough. The Falcons are the best in the business at running the ball and the Browns’ rushing defense is awful.

My Pick: Falcons run to victory at home
SAFE PICK

San Diego (6-2, 2-2 away)
at
Cincinnati (4-4, 2-2 home)

It’s time for the Bengals’ talented offensive players to stop bickering, shut up and play. They have the most talent in the AFC Central and they should be ahead in the division. Instead, they are staring up at the Ravens after losing to them last week. The Bengals need to get their act together quickly or they will be watching the playoffs from their living rooms. They are perfectly capable of beating the Chargers at home in a must-win game, but will they? They need to start generating more of the big plays that fueled their explosive offense last season and it all starts with Carson Palmer. Because Palmer’s throwing mechanics are still a little off, the Bengals have thrown the ball down the field quite a bit less than last season which has limited their offense and Palmer and Chad Johnson’s statistics. These guys are too good to play this poorly. I expect them to pull it together this week and pick up the upset win at home.

My Pick: Bengals get back on track

San Francisco (3-5, 0-3 away)
at
Detroit (2-6, 2-2 home)

Last week’s 9-3 ‘9ers win over the Vikings posed the following question for us amateur football analysts: Is the San Francisco defense that good or is the Minnesota offense that bad? I’ll take the latter. The Lions have a potent passing game and I expect them to continue to pile up yards through the air. Kevin Jones should have another big day on the ground as well.

My Pick: Lions bring the ‘9ers back to earth
SAFE PICK

Baltimore (6-2, 3-1 away)
at
Tennessee (2-6, 1-2 home)

The Titans have a good running game but they inexplicably abandoned it last time out. If they can take some pressure off of Vince Young by establishing the run, their defense will be able to hold down McNair and the Ravens and keep this thing close. I still see Baltimore pulling it out though.

My Pick: Ravens hold on for the win

Buffalo (3-5, 1-3 away)
at
Indianapolis (8-0, 4-0 home)

The Bills did next to nothing on offense against an awful Packers defense last week and lost their only bona fide talent, McGahee, with three broken ribs. Creating a couple of turnovers on defense and making one or two plays on offense will get you a win against Green Bay but I can’t see this success translating over to a road game against the Colts.

My Pick: Colts roll to 9-0
SAFE PICK

Kansas City (5-3, 2-2 away)
at
Miami (2-6, 1-2 home)

Miami’s one highlight of this season was their win over the previously undefeated Bears. I expect them to revert back to their earlier mediocre form this week as they face a premier running back who is tearing it up and a quarterback who takes care of the ball and mans a passing game that is efficient if not spectacular. The Chiefs look like a playoff team to me…

My Pick: Chiefs continue to roll
SAFE PICK

Green Bay (3-5, 2-2 away)
at
Minnesota (4-4, 2-2 home)

I was very disappointed in both of these teams last week. Do I really need to pick a winner here? Since I have to pick one of them, I will go with the Packers. They generated enough offense to beat the Bills but made crucial errors in the red zone which cost them the game.

My Pick: Packers beat the struggling Vikings

New York Jets (4-4, 2-2 away)
at
New England (6-2, 2-2 home)

I know that the Jets are 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per game, but I think that they have a shot in this game. The Patriots’ secondary seems a lot weaker without Rodney Harrison. If Chad Pennington can put together a solid game, he should be able to find Crotchery and Coles for some big gains. It’ll be close…

My Pick: …But I’m taking the Patriots

Washington (3-5, 1-3 away)
at
Philadelphia (4-4, 2-2 home)

The Cowboys’ copious miscues last week have given the Redskins a second life of sorts…will they take advantage of it? My bet is they won’t. Their passing defense has been awful this year and, despite their win, their secondary didn’t look any better. If Owens could actually catch the ball, they would have been blown out last week. I think that Stallworth and Brown will be able to find similar separation in the secondary and that McNabb will rebound from his abysmal performance two weeks ago. The Eagles need this win just as much as the Redskins do and with their superior personnel, they will get it.

My Pick: Eagles get back into the win column
SAFE PICK

Houston (2-6, 0-4 away)
at
Jacksonville (5-3, 4-0 home)

The Texans blew the Jaguars out in their last meeting and the Jags are out for revenge. If you lose to the Texans twice in one season, you don’t deserve to make the playoffs. Remember that, Jack Del Rio! You also don’t deserve to make the playoffs if your receivers drop half of the passes thrown their direction…but I digress. Houston will put up a few points via Carr-to-Johnson but their defense will be torn apart by Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.

My Pick: The Jaguars avenge their earlier loss in Houston
SAFE PICK

Denver (6-2, 3-1 away)
at
Oakland (2-6, 2-2 home)

Oakland’s offense is simply pathetic. Denver’s defense is really good. Enough said.

My Pick: Broncos blow out Raiders in Oakland
SAFE PICK

Dallas (4-4, 2-3 away)
at
Arizona (1-7, 1-3 home)

Romo looked really good again last week but an inexplicable combination of dropped passes, stupid penalties and a special teams meltdown cost them the win. They should have no trouble beating up on a Cardinals team that looks like it has packed it in for the season.

My Pick: Cowboys move back over .500
SAFE PICK

New Orleans (6-2, 3-1 away)
at
Pittsburgh (2-6, 2-2 home)

As sloppy as Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers’ offense have been, the defense has been equally at fault. They allowed 4 TD passes and over 40 points to a Falcons’ passing game that the Lions easily shut down last week. The Saints’ offense is rolling right now as Drew Brees keeping piling up 300 yard games and they keep winning. What do the Steelers have to counter that? Pride? I should probably give them the benefit of the doubt since they are playing at home and they did win the Super Bowl last year but they look pretty awful to me.

My Pick: Saints drive the final nail in the Steel coffin

St. Louis (4-4, 2-2 away)
at
Seattle (5-3, 3-1 home)

The Rams have been struggling lately but it has mostly been a result of ill-timed fumbles by the receivers and Steven Jackson, trying to fight for an extra yard or two. Marc Bulger continues to throw the ball efficiently and effectively and has been unfazed by the wide variety of defenses that he has had thrown at him this season. I don’t really trust the Seahawks’ secondary right now so I expect Bulger’s success to continue in Seattle. The Seahawks are still without their two offensive leaders, Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander (who is listed as doubtful but has essentially been ruled out), and I don’t think that the home field advantage will be enough for them to beat their only real division rival.

My Pick: Rams are up to the test and win in Qwest

Chicago (7-1, 3-0 away)
at
New York Giants (6-2, 3-1 home)

The Bears were exposed by the Dolphins last week and things aren’t getting any easier; now, they have to travel to Giants Stadium to face a team that is playing as well as anyone in the NFC right now. The Bears’ offense isn’t clicking as well without deep threat Bernard Berrian (out with an injury) who really opens up the rest of the offense with his big play ability. Thomas Jones has been inconsistent running the ball and so now the onus for the offense is completely on Rex Grossman’s shoulders. He seems to be prone to pressure, so I expect the Giants to blitz frequently and try to force him into mistakes. On the other side of the field, the Giants get Plaxico Burress back this week. The Bears’ corners are good but they can be beat. Burress has the right combination of speed and size to be effective against them. This has all the makings of a great game and I expect it to be pretty competitive.

My Pick: I’ll take the home team here

That’s all for now…Remember, I guarantee that I will pick more of the above games correctly than incorrectly. Check back in a few days for the Monday Night pick…