Pilgrim's Progress...

I had many things to be thankful for this Thanksgiving: Turkey, mashed potatoes, stuffing, a cult-like prayer ceremony before dinner with my righteous right-leaning relatives, a dominating poker tournament win…and having all three of my Thanksgiving picks go in my favor. Let’s hope that the Pilgrims saved me some leftovers for the weekend, because I could really use some help right now…

Last Week: 7-9
(SAFE PICKS: 3-2)

Season: 89-71
(SAFE PICKS: 42-23)



New Orleans (6-4, 3-2 away)
at
Atlanta (5-5, 3-2 home)

The Falcons really need this win and they are playing at home…but, the Saints really need this win too, and their passing game has been outstanding this season while the Atlanta secondary has been atrocious. I’ll give the nod to Drew Brees here…he has averaged over 400 passing yards the past three weeks and while I think he may bring that average down a bit this week, I still see him throwing for over 300 yards and several touchdowns. Stick a fork in the Falcons…they’re done.

My Pick: Saints win an NFC South battle on the road

Jacksonville (6-4, 1-3 away)
at
Buffalo (4-6, 2-2 home)

The Jaguars really surprised me by dismantling the Giants on Monday night. Their defense looked better than then they have looked all season despite all of the players that they have lost to injury. They should have no trouble shutting down Losman and a likely tentative McGahee (returning from a serious rib injury). Their offense is still hindered by their receivers’ hands but Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are pretty reliable in the ground game. I’ll take Jacksonville against any team not from Houston right now…

My Pick: I’m exaggerating slightly in the above statement but they’ll pull out a win against the Bills

Cincinnati (5-5, 3-2 away)
at
Cleveland (3-7, 1-4 home)

Earlier in the season, the Browns gave the Bengals some trouble in Cincinnati. This time around, despite the fact that the Browns have been playing well, I think the Bengals will have their way. Their offense is on fire right now and they need a win to stay in the playoff hunt.

My Pick: Bengals claw down their in-state rivals
SAFE PICK

San Francisco (5-5, 1-3 away)
at
St. Louis (4-6, 2-2 home)

The 49ers beat the Rams already this season and are riding high after their win over the division-leading Seahawks last week. Naturally, I am picking against them because there will be a letdown after the win against Seattle and because they won’t be able to beat the Rams, who are a superior team, twice in one season. Gotcha! I learned my lesson after picking against Houston in their second game against Jacksonville. The ‘9ers have the Rams’ number and St. Louis is really struggling right now. Frank Gore has looked as impressive as any running back not known by their initials this season. San Francisco…so hot right now!

My Pick: Ridin’ the smog heat wave…

Arizona (2-8, 0-4 away)
at
Minnesota (4-6, 2-3 home)

The Vikings were impressive for the first third of the season but the combination of injuries to their offensive line, a non-existent passing game and an inconsistent secondary have doomed them to mediocrity. A finally healthy Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are chomping at the bit to get on the artificial turf and tear things up.

My Pick: The Cardinals pick up their first road win of the season

Houston (3-7, 1-4 away)
at
New York Jets (5-5, 2-3 home)

The Jets’ mediocre kryptonite team is the Browns…anyone else that they are supposed to beat, they will.

My Pick: Jets win at home and move back over .500
SAFE PICK

Carolina (6-4, 2-2 away)
at
Washington (3-7, 2-2 home)

I haven’t done the recipe gimmick in a while…let’s give it another go:
A rookie quarterback in his second career start, backed by an inconsistent offensive line + a surging defense powered by the best pass rusher in the league + the worst pass defense in the league + the fastest and best overall receiver in the league = Tell your kids to cover their eyes…

My Pick: Panthers overpower the ‘skins
SAFE PICK

Pittsburgh (4-6, 1-4 away)
at
Baltimore (8-2, 4-1 home)

Take a good look at the Baltimore Ravens and tell me with a straight face that they are a legit 8-2 team. Then, take a good look at the Pittsburgh Steelers and tell me, given their track record and their personnel, that they are a 4-6 team. Justice will prevail…if the ghosts of the Pilgrims will it to be so of course.

My Pick: The Steelers will give me something else to be thankful for
SAFE PICK

Oakland (2-8, 0-5 away)
at
San Diego (8-2, 4-0 home)

Oakland is winless on the road and has an awful offense…San Diego is undefeated at home and has an overpowering offense. That’s all you really need to know about this game…

My Pick: The Chargers win at home in convincing fashion
SAFE PICK

New York Giants (6-4, 3-2 away)
at
Tennessee (3-7, 1-3 home)

The Giants, after losing two straight, really need to win this game. The Titans have played well as of late but they are facing a team that is much more talented than they are and is desperate.

My Pick: Chalk up a much-needed win for the G-men
SAFE PICK

Chicago (9-1, 5-0 away)
at
New England (7-3, 2-3 home)

My name may not be Dennis Green but I know who the Bears are: a very talented team on both sides of the ball that is prone to offensive and subsequent defensive lapses when their quarterback has a bad game. I’m not sure who the Patriots are. I’ve seen them look both dominating and diminutive this season. After this game, I think I will have a much better idea of what this team is capable of this season. Theoretically, Belichick’s confusing blitzing schemes will wreck havoc on Rex Grossman and force him into many turnovers. Theoretically, Brady will spread the ball all around the field and, given ample opportunity to pick the Bears’ defense apart, will do so. Will that play out on Sunday? Let's wait and see…

My Pick: My money’s on Brady and the Pats but it’s a pretty small wager

Philadelphia (5-5, 2-2 away)
at
Indianapolis (9-1, 5-0 home)

The Eagles just lost their leader for the season and potentially part of next year with a torn ACL. How well can you expect them to play after that? Also, Jeff Garcia is incapable of throwing the ball further than 10 yards down the field these days…

My Pick: Colts pick up where they left off 2 weeks ago…before the Cowboys got in the way of history
SAFE PICK

That’s all for now, but don’t you worry. There will definitely be some Thanksgiving leftovers in store for you before Monday night…