Last second choke-fests aside (damn you Tampa defense and Warner!), I thought that the most surprising outcome last week was the Pats’ home loss to the Broncos. Don’t get me wrong: Denver has a talented team. They have a very underrated defense and they (as usual) seem to have a solid running game. They also have a solid receiving corps. My problem with them, which makes it impossible for me to take them seriously, is their quarterback situation. Jake Plummer is, hands down, the worst starting quarterback on any team that has a shot at the playoffs. Therefore, when they are in a match-up against a team like the Pats, which I would consider a toss-up, I find it impossible to pick the Broncos to win. They did win however, and Shannahan exposed an unusual inequality in the Pats’ offense: at this point in the season their running game is much better than their passing game. Denver stacked the line and forced Brady to pass, and it worked really well. It’s not that the Pats don’t have talented receivers; it’s just that, other than Troy Brown, they are inexperienced. I expect them to develop as the season progresses and I think before the year is over, Brady will have just as good chemistry with this group of receivers that he has had in the past with Patten, Branch et al. Look for Doug Gabriel (who I think is just as talented as Deion Branch) to emerge as Brady’s go-to-guy…
Anyway, enough of that. Let’s move on to this week’s games:
Last Week: 10-4
(SAFE PICKS: 6-1)
Season: 30-16
(SAFE PICKS: 15-3)
Arizona (1-2, 0-1 away)
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Atlanta (2-1, 1-0 home)
It’s difficult to place much trust in Kurt Warner right now…he had 5 turnovers last week, including a fumbled snap at the St. Louis 18 yard line that ended the game when Rackers was in position for a chip shot FG that would have won the game for Arizona. On the other hand, I have even less faith in Atlanta’s defense. They looked okay during their first two games, but against New Orleans their rush defense looked, if anything, more porous than last year’s. I expect Edgerrin James to have a big game…did the CBSsportsline.com fantasy analysts (who called this as a tough match-up for James) even watch the Monday night game? I mean…I understand that the Falcons held Carolina and Tampa Bay to low rushing totals, but they also built up big leads against both of those teams so they were forced to throw the ball to try to come back. As for the Atlanta secondary (which has been pretty solid so far), they have a tough match-up against the Cardinals’ superbly talented receiving duo of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, especially with DeAngelo Hall banged up. If Warner didn’t look as shaky as he does right now, I would pick Arizona to get the upset without a second thought, but I really don’t know what to expect out of him on Sunday. If he has a slightly above average game on Sunday and doesn’t turn the ball over, I think that the Cardinals will win. I think that Warner will come through…he knows that if he doesn’t, he may not have the starting job much longer…
My Pick: Cardinals pull off the upset
Minnesota (2-1, 1-0 away)
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Buffalo (1-2, 0-1 home)
The Vikings don’t look like a very talented team on paper, but they have played solid so far this year. Maybe getting rid of Mike Tice was their best off-season move…Childress has done an excellent coaching job with this squad so far. They may end up competing for the last playoff spot in the NFC, and when you have Brad Johnson as your QB and 0 standout receivers, that really says a lot about the coaching staff. I don’t know what to make of Buffalo…McGahee is really emerging as a great back this season, but Losman, while he has shown flashes, is still one of the least reliable quarterbacks in the league. I have a feeling that the Vikings’ contrastingly consistent cornerbacks (Smoot and Winfield) will give him fits on Sunday…
My Pick: Vikings win on the road
Dallas (1-1, 0-1 away)
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Tennessee (0-3, 0-1 home)
Tennessee’s secondary is awful…and so is their pass rush. Regardless of whether or not T.O. plays, I think that the Cowboys will win this game in a blowout. If I were Bill Parcells, I would sit Owens and let his finger heal for another week. They’ll need him next week against the Eagles…
My Pick: Cowboys in a laugher
SAFE PICK
San Francisco (1-2, 0-1 away)
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Kansas City (0-2, 0-1 home)
Kansas City’s rush defense is awful but the ‘9ers won’t really be able to exploit it because Frank Gore is banged up. The Chiefs’ secondary actually looks pretty solid so far, and should be able to hold its own against Alex Smith and Antonio Bryant. The Chiefs won’t really be able to exploit the weak San Francisco secondary with Damon Huard at quarterback, but I expect a huge game out of stud running back Larry Johnson, who has been relatively quiet thus far…
My Pick: Chiefs pick up their first win
Indianapolis (3-0, 1-0 away)
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New York Jets (2-1, 0-1 home)
The Jets have looked pretty solid so far this season, with a healthy Pennington doing an excellent job of moving the chains. I still feel like their defense is a question point though…Can they really be expected to hold down the explosive passing game of the Colts?
My Pick: Colts ride Manning’s arm to a win on the road
New Orleans (3-0, 2-0 away)
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Carolina (1-2, 0-1 home)
I honestly don’t feel like there is much separating these two teams...they are both very talented and very flawed. The Panthers do not have a running game to speak of; the Saints are very inconsistent defensively. So what separates the two in this game, other than it being in Carolina? I feel like there will be a major letdown for the Saints after their emotional win over Atlanta in the Superdome last Sunday. Also, we still don’t really know what to expect out of the Panthers until we see them play with a healthy and rust-free Steve Smith.
My Pick: Carolina moves to 2-0 with Steve Smith in the lineup.
San Diego (2-0, 1-0 away)
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Baltimore (3-0, 1-0 home)
Bill Simmons is really high on the Chargers right now, even going so far as to rank them #1 overall in his power rankings. Maybe they are a great team, but in my mind they haven’t proved anything yet…they played the two worst teams in the league (Oakland and Tennessee) in their first 2 games. I love you Bill, but let’s wait and see how they do against a team that has a chance of making the playoffs before drawing any crazy conclusions…This will be the first time that new QB Philip Rivers will be tested and I expect the cagey, veteran Ravens’ defense to get the better of this match-up.
My Pick: Ravens pull off the (upset?!? What is Vegas thinking?)
SAFE PICK
Miami (1-2, 0-1 away)
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Houston (0-3, 0-2 home)
I cracked up when I read the headline for the analysis of this game on ESPN.com: Running game key for both teams. Right…Let’s be honest. The Dolphins need Culpepper to get back on track because they have the receivers for him throw to. If he can’t throw on the Texans, who have no pass-rush or secondary, then what team can he throw against? If he doesn’t have a good game this week, he might as well call it a career. I tried to defend Culpepper earlier in the season, but to be honest, after seeing him struggle against the defensively challenged Titans last week, I think that we may have a Joey Harrington sighting in Miami soon. The Texans have no running game and no defense…but against the Dolphins I don’t think that’s going to matter. What they do have is what Miami should have: a solid passing game. I expect big days out of David Carr (who leads the NFL in QB rating) and his top two targets, Eric Moulds and Andre Johnson.
My Pick: Houston picks up its first win of the season against the hapless Dolphins
Detroit (0-3, 0-1 away)
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St. Louis (2-1, 1-0 home)
So…who is first to go in Detroit? Mike Martz or Matt Millen? Bets please…
My Pick: St. Louis moves to 3-1
SAFE PICK
New England (2-1, 1-0 away)
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Cincinnati (3-0, 1-0 home)
The Patriots look a little discombobulated at the moment…Denver exposed their passing game last week by loading up to stop the run and Brady was unable to capitalize. I think that the Bengals will take a page out of Shanahan’s book and do the same thing again this week. It may work now, but only inexperience and undeveloped chemistry stand in the way of the Patriots’ passing game returning to its usual high level. I expect it to look a lot better this week and to keep improving from here on out. By the end of the season, the Patriots will be a lot tougher to beat than they are right now. Back to this game…the Pats’ defense is banged up and the Bengals have weapons all over the field…and it’s in Cincinnati. I hate to make SAFE PICKs against my team, but I think this one’s in the bag.
My Pick: Bengals remain undefeated
Cleveland (0-3, 0-1 away)
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Oakland (0-2, 0-1 home)
Cleveland is winless on the year, but I have been impressed so far by the play of Charlie Frye and Braylon Edwards. The Raiders, on the other hand, have done nothing remotely impressive this season. I know they’re the home team here, playing against another winless team, but how can you justify picking the Raiders to win against anyone this year? They are beyond awful. At best, they will win 2 games this year…
My Pick: Browns pick up their first win on the road
SAFE PICK
Jacksonville (2-1, 0-1 away)
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Washington (1-2, 0-1 home)
The Redskins looked awful offensively, and normally I wouldn’t make judgments about a team based on a performance against the Texans, but the Redskins aren’t your normal team. Mark Brunell, as my next-door neighbor (who is a huge ‘skins fan) pointed out, is fueled by confidence. When things are going well, he is excellent, but when things start to go south and his confidence is drained, his game turns sour. I think that Brunell, coming off of his 22 straight completions against Houston, is pretty confident at the moment and that will carry over into this game. Jacksonville should be able to exploit the Redskins’ banged-up secondary and the Jags will probably have another good day running the ball, but something in my gut is telling me that the Redskins will “gut” out this game. It’s going to be a close one…
My Pick: Redskins pull out a close one
Seattle (3-0, 1-0 away)
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Chicago (3-0, 1-0 home)
This looks to be the most intriguing game on the bill this week. Both of these teams have looked impressive this year and look to be the class of the NFC. Chicago has returned its dominating defense of last year but it’s their offense that has turned some heads so far this year. After being abysmal last season, Rex Grossman and Muhsin Muhammad have given Chicago a huge lift in the passing game. Unfortunately, their running game doesn’t look as good as last season as Anthony Thomas has really struggled (averaging only 3 yards per carry so far this year).
The Seahawks, after their acquisition of Deion Branch from the Patriots, now have 4 solid wide-outs. Keep in mind that without Branch they already had the most balanced passing game in the NFC last year. Now they will be even more difficult for opposing secondaries to defend…if they had a healthy Shaun Alexander (last year’s NFL MVP) they would be the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Still, their running game isn’t half bad with Alexander out: Maurice Morris is a very capable runner (4.5 career yards per carry). He should be at least as effective as a gimpy Shaun Alexander has been the last few weeks. Seattle also has a balanced and very underrated defense.
This seems like a tough pick to make, but when I think about the match-ups (Chicago’s offense vs. Seattle’s defense and vice versa) I see Chicago having a more difficult time stopping Seattle’s 4 WR sets than Seattle will have stopping Chicago’s emerging passing game. And even without Alexander, I have to give the Seahawks a huge edge in the running game. Seattle looks hungry right now…they feel that they had the Super Bowl taken away from them last season by the refs and they want another crack at it.
My Pick: Seahawks win the battle of the NFC frontrunners
SAFE PICK
And that’s all she wrote…until my pick for the Monday Night game…
Friday, September 29, 2006
Monday, September 25, 2006
Heart(ache/break/burn)
This season’s recurring theme: Teams I picked to win blowing games in the final seconds.
Last week, of course, we had the Eagles inexplicably blowing a 21-7 4th quarter lead to the Giants. This week? First off, we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Up by 1 with under two minutes to go, they allow the Panthers (whose offense this season has been inept at best) to march down the field and kick the game-winning field goal. But this game bothers me much less than the Cardinal’s unforgivable loss to the Rams. Kurt Warner, after previously fumbling and throwing three interceptions, fumbles the snap at the 20 yard line as Arizona is trying to run down the clock before kicking a game-winning field goal. Instead, the Cardinals lose by 2 and Warner’s job security looks a lot less sound than it did two weeks ago. As do my chances of beating Brian in picks this year, now that I have a 3 pick deficit to dig myself out of.
Anyway, let’s move on the Monday night game, shall we?
Atlanta (2-0, 1-0 away)
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New Orleans (2-0, 0-0 home)
The Falcons’ running game has been NFL Street-esque so far this season. Part of me is hoping that they take away the out of bounds rule tonight just so Michael Vick can bust a wall move and jump over the Saints defenders. The more serious part of me though, the softer, gentler but no less sensible part, wants to see the Saints to win tonight, in the first game at the Super Dome since 2004, inspire the city of New Orleans and give them hope as they continue the long rebuilding process. While it may have seemed, at the beginning of the season, unrealistic to expect the Saints to have a chance in this game, my head and my heart now seem much closer to agreeing on a prediction for this game. I won’t spend any more time reiterating how good Atlanta’s running game has been, because we know that they will run early, often and successfully in this game. The question here is whether or not Drew Brees can continue the success that he has had through the air in their first 2 games. He looked particularly solid last week against Green Bay, winning a shootout with Brett Favre by throwing for 353 yards and 2 touchdowns. Can he have similar success against the Falcons’ defense? Well, Joey Galloway beat the Atlanta secondary on nearly every play last week. Granted, he is one of the speedier receivers in the league, but I think that Atlanta’s secondary is a little suspect. But Brees won’t be able to exploit it unless his offensive line can hold off the Atlanta pass rush, which has looked pretty solid this year. And he will need Bush and McAlister to contribute on the ground in order to help open things up. The Saints have a lot more question marks than the Falcons do, but they have a huge edge emotionally. John Madden called the Patriots out during their horrendous loss to the Broncos last night and said that the Pats were playing “without passion”. Passion is an integral part of success and while I do believe that the Falcons have the better team, I think that the Saints have a LOT more to play for here than Atlanta and will find a way to win tonight.
My Pick:
The Saints continue to inspire the city of New Orleans
Last week, of course, we had the Eagles inexplicably blowing a 21-7 4th quarter lead to the Giants. This week? First off, we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Up by 1 with under two minutes to go, they allow the Panthers (whose offense this season has been inept at best) to march down the field and kick the game-winning field goal. But this game bothers me much less than the Cardinal’s unforgivable loss to the Rams. Kurt Warner, after previously fumbling and throwing three interceptions, fumbles the snap at the 20 yard line as Arizona is trying to run down the clock before kicking a game-winning field goal. Instead, the Cardinals lose by 2 and Warner’s job security looks a lot less sound than it did two weeks ago. As do my chances of beating Brian in picks this year, now that I have a 3 pick deficit to dig myself out of.
Anyway, let’s move on the Monday night game, shall we?
Atlanta (2-0, 1-0 away)
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New Orleans (2-0, 0-0 home)
The Falcons’ running game has been NFL Street-esque so far this season. Part of me is hoping that they take away the out of bounds rule tonight just so Michael Vick can bust a wall move and jump over the Saints defenders. The more serious part of me though, the softer, gentler but no less sensible part, wants to see the Saints to win tonight, in the first game at the Super Dome since 2004, inspire the city of New Orleans and give them hope as they continue the long rebuilding process. While it may have seemed, at the beginning of the season, unrealistic to expect the Saints to have a chance in this game, my head and my heart now seem much closer to agreeing on a prediction for this game. I won’t spend any more time reiterating how good Atlanta’s running game has been, because we know that they will run early, often and successfully in this game. The question here is whether or not Drew Brees can continue the success that he has had through the air in their first 2 games. He looked particularly solid last week against Green Bay, winning a shootout with Brett Favre by throwing for 353 yards and 2 touchdowns. Can he have similar success against the Falcons’ defense? Well, Joey Galloway beat the Atlanta secondary on nearly every play last week. Granted, he is one of the speedier receivers in the league, but I think that Atlanta’s secondary is a little suspect. But Brees won’t be able to exploit it unless his offensive line can hold off the Atlanta pass rush, which has looked pretty solid this year. And he will need Bush and McAlister to contribute on the ground in order to help open things up. The Saints have a lot more question marks than the Falcons do, but they have a huge edge emotionally. John Madden called the Patriots out during their horrendous loss to the Broncos last night and said that the Pats were playing “without passion”. Passion is an integral part of success and while I do believe that the Falcons have the better team, I think that the Saints have a LOT more to play for here than Atlanta and will find a way to win tonight.
My Pick:
The Saints continue to inspire the city of New Orleans
Thursday, September 21, 2006
The Good, The Bad and The Gritty...
I am not normally one to gloat, but I feel that I could not have been more right in my prediction for the Monday Night game: Rothelisberger looked rusty, he was outplayed by Leftwich and the Jaguars’ defense was nasty, which all added up to a gritty 9-0 win for Jacksonville. It will be much more difficult for pseudo football pundits to ignore the Jaguars after they embarrassed the defending Super Bowl champs on Monday Night Football.
Okay, enough ego-stroking for one post. Let’s switch gears now and discuss some things that I was really wrong about in Week 2:
The Bills shocked me by defeating the Dolphins (a trendy preseason Super Bowl pick) despite the absence of Takeo Spikes. This was because Dante Culpepper is not the same quarterback since his return from knee surgery. He looks tentative on every play, and refuses to leave the pocket even when he feels pressure coming. The Bills sacked him seven times on Sunday and held his team scoreless until the waning moments of the game. Where is the confident, proficient passer who would, on a regular basis, scramble to escape the defense and make game-breaking plays? I’m not sure if he still exists, but if he still does, he better make an appearance soon or the Dolphins’ playoff hopes are kaput. I know one thing for sure…Miami is wishing that they had signed Drew Brees instead when they had the chance…
On to the Tampa/Atlanta game…I can’t help but digress for a moment and comment on the Falcons’ new offense. In the short term, the Falcons’ “college option” offense looks unstoppable. Tampa Bay has what I consider to be a solid run defense, but Atlanta decimated it on Sunday en route to a team record in rushing yards. What really surprised me in this game though was Tampa’s inability to put points on the board. Chris Simms threw for 313 yards and Galloway had 9 receptions for 161 yards and they could only put 3 points on the board?!? Keep in mind that Galloway was getting open quite frequently despite being covered by Hall, one of the top CBs in the league. This leads me to believe that if Simms can cut down on his mistakes, this offense still has a chance to thrive. Does that mean that the Buccaneers still have a shot at a playoff berth? That remains to be seen. Does it mean that they can beat the Panthers on Sunday? I’ll keep you in suspense for now…and move on to this week’s picks:
Last Week: 11-5
(SAFE PICKS: 6-1)
Season: 20-12
(SAFE PICKS: 9-2)
New York Jets (1-1, 1-0 away)
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Buffalo (1-1, 0-0 home)
I’ve heard way too many media members complimenting the Bills’ defense over the last two weeks…in my opinion they really aren’t that good. They beat up on the Dolphins last week simply because Culpepper was hesitant and refused to scramble. They played the Patriots close but New England really just looked sloppy in that game (which was understandable as it was the first game of the season). They have proven nothing to me. And I still think that it is impossible for J.P. Losman to lead a winning team. How can you depend on a quarterback who takes a safety by running out of the end zone? Furthermore, how can you expect to stop an efficient passing attack when you are starting two rookies at safety? An efficient passing attack is exactly what the New York Jets have, and I think that Chad Pennington, Laverneus Coles and Cotchery will expose the Bills’ secondary for what it is—a major weakness. Pennington may not be able to throw a ball 60 yards, but he is a very smart and efficient quarterback who reads defenses as well as anyone in the league and is very good at finding open receivers for short and medium completions. If Kevin Barlow gets things going, New York could compete for a playoff berth. That being said, even if Barlow rushes for under 50 yards, the Jets will have no trouble beating the Bills in this game…
My Pick:
Jets win the battle of New York
SAFE PICK
Green Bay (0-2, 0-0 away)
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Detroit (0-2, 0-1 home)
I feel as though both of these teams, were they not playing each other, would be 0-3 after Sunday. Since they are playing each other though, one of them has to end up in the win column…I think that that team will be the Packers. They may have lost a disappointing game last week at home to the Saints, but at least they have shown some semblance of an offense (Favre threw for over 300 yards and they scored 27 points last week). The Lions have managed a total of 13 points in their first two contests. (Note to Vegas: How can you favor a team by a touchdown when they have only scored one touchdown in their first 2 games?)
My Pick:
Green Bay picks up their first win on the road.
Jacksonville (2-0, 0-0 away)
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Indianapolis (2-0, 1-0 home)
The Jaguars looked very impressive on Monday (as mentioned earlier) but they face an even tougher task on Sunday, facing a passing attack that is hotter than Natalie Portman. Peyton Manning threw for 400 yards last week and spread the ball all over the field. Granted he was facing quite possibly the worst pass defense in the league, but he looks pretty damn confident right now. If this game was in Jacksonville and they had not gritted out two tough victories over talented teams in the first two weeks, I would give the Jags a shot, but I am pretty confident that with the game being in Indy, and with the Colts being less worn out, they will win.
My Pick:
Colts hand a tough Jags team their first defeat
Tennessee (0-2, 0-1 away)
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Miami (0-2, 0-1 home)
Now, as I mentioned earlier, Miami has been a very bad team thus far; however, the Titans are in a whole other league of “bad”. Their defense is very balanced; that is to say that they are just as inept at stopping the run as they are the pass. This is just the type of match-up that Culpepper needs to boost his confidence…
My Pick:
The ‘phins pick up their first win
SAFE PICK
Chicago (2-0, 1-0 away)
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Minnesota (2-0, 1-0 home)
The Vikings’ 2-0 record is a bit misleading…they have relied on excellent coaching, hard work and a little luck to get to this point. They really don’t have any players at any position that scare you, but in the NFC North, they have a good shot at finishing 9-7 and stealing a wildcard berth. On the other hand, they have very little chance of defeating the Bears, who not only have the best defense in the NFC (again) but also feature a budding star in QB Rex Grossman, who threw 4 TD passes last week against Detroit. If Grossman can keep playing at a high, or at least better than average, level, the Bears have a very good shot at making it to the Super Bowl.
My Pick: The Bears decimate another division “rival”
SAFE PICK
Cincinnati (2-0, 1-0 away)
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Pittsburgh (1-1, 1-0 home)
Carson Palmer has been waiting for 9 months to seek revenge on the team that knocked the Bengals out of the playoffs and sent him off the field with a career-threatening knee injury. He has caught the Steelers at a bad time too, coming off a shutout loss to the Jaguars in which Rothelisberger struggled mightily, throwing three interceptions, and Willie Parker only rushed for 20 yards. The Pittsburgh defense looked good last week, but do you really expect them to hold down the Cincinnati offense? Everywhere you look, there are guys that can hurt you: Carson Palmer at QB (352 yards and 2 TD passes last week), Rudi Johnson at RB (26 carries for 145 yards and 2 TDs), and three outstanding WRs in Chad Johnson (78 yards and a TD), Chris Henry (113 yards) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (making his season debut in this game). If Pittsburgh gets its act together offensively, this will turn into a shootout (as there is no “D” in Bengal). If not, it will be a blowout. Either way, the Bengals will win.
My Pick: Bengals avenge last year’s divisional playoff defeat
SAFE PICK
Carolina (0-2, 0-1 away)
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Tampa Bay (0-2, 0-1 home)
Sports Illustrated, in its preseason predictions, picked Carolina to win the Super Bowl. This is significant firstly because I cannot remember them picking a single Super Bowl representative correctly in the last 5 or so years; secondly, because the last time they picked the Panthers to win the Super Bowl, Carolina proceeded to lose its first three games (and then some), all without the services of Steve Smith, and failed to make the playoffs. The Panthers have a lot of history to overcome here. They also need to get their running game on track because DeShaun Foster looks like he is three steps slower this year, averaging only 2.9 yards per carry and showing no ability to break tackles. Steve Smith may play this week, but you have to expect him to be a bit rusty with all of the time that he has been sitting on the sideline. Tampa did lose pretty badly last week, but I feel that the score was misleading: the scoring opportunities were there. Simms threw for over 300 yards and Galloway caught 9 balls for over 160 yards…and Simms missed him several times when he was open in the end zone! The Bucs just haven’t capitalized on their opportunities and I think that they are bound to start doing so eventually…their passing game should be better than the Panthers’ on Sunday (even with the potential return of Smith) and I think that they will hold on for the win here.
My Pick: Tampa wins (history repeats itself)
Washington (0-2, 0-1 away)
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Houston (0-2, 0-1 home)
For much of Sunday’s game against Dallas, Washington was able to compensate for their injury-ravaged secondary by sticking more players out there and shying away from putting pressure on the quarterback. Eventually though, with enough time to see the field, Bledsoe was able to break their defense down and lead his team to victory. It certainly didn’t help that Mark Brunell (who should not still be in the NFL) only completed 8 of his first 20 passes, but that’s a different story. The stacked coverage defense that Washington is forced to play is much more important in regards to this game. This is because of Texans quarterback David Carr. There is a distinct pattern surrounding Carr’s triumphs and struggles: when his offensive line (which has been awful ever since he came into the league) gives him enough time to throw the ball he is very successful; when his offensive line breaks down, he gets sacked a lot. Now, since Washington is still forced to play special teams players in their secondary, I expect that they will have to double-team Eric Moulds and Andre Johnson (two excellent receivers) on pretty much every play. This means that they most likely won’t be putting much pressure on Carr, which bodes well for him. Since the Texans’ defense is pretty awful, if Mark Brunell has anything left, this will turn into a shootout. Unfortunately for Washington fans though, Brunell looks washed up and it doesn’t look like Gibbs plans on benching him anytime soon.
My Pick: The Texans pick up their first win at home
Baltimore (2-0, 1-0 away)
Cleveland (0-2, 0-1 home)
I could spend a paragraph here talking about how good Baltimore’s defense is and how bad Cleveland is on both sides of the ball but I won’t. It would be a waste of both my time and yours.
My Pick: Ravens (insert intelligent comment that equates to “duh” here)
SAFE PICK
St. Louis (1-1, 0-1 away)
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Arizona (1-1, 1-0 home)
The Cardinals had the top passing attack in the league last year and have looked pretty good in that regard this year as well. Now that they actually have a running game (Edgerrin James) they boast a pretty formidable offense. Meanwhile, the Rams’ defense looked ineptly balanced last week in their loss to the 49ers, allowing 127 rushing yards to Frank Gore and 131 receiving yards to Antonio Bryant. I get the feeling that Kurt Warner (who way-back-when led them to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances) will tear them apart through the air and James will do his part on the ground. The Rams may score some points to keep this interesting (the Cardinals’ defense is pretty awful too) but I expect Arizona to prevail.
My Pick: Cardinals win a shootout at home
Philadelphia (1-1, 1-0 away)
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San Francisco (1-1, 1-0 home)
The 49ers’ offense has looked pretty good the first 2 weeks, but they are simply overmatched here. Their fourth quarter meltdown aside, the Eagles look like the class of the NFC thus far. Donovan McNabb looks better than ever this season (300+ passing yards in each of the first 2 weeks) and I expect more of the same from him on Sunday against a pretty weak 49er secondary. Terrell who?
My Pick: Eagles win on the road
SAFE PICK
New York Giants (1-1, 1-0 away)
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Seattle (2-0, 1-0 home)
For a combination of reasons, many of which elude me, Seattle is a much much better team at home than they are on the road. I thought that the Giants showed a lot of grit last week in their crazy comeback win over the Eagles, but I still feel like I need to give the edge to Seattle here. This is more of an intuition pick than anything else. The Giants have looked much better than the Seahawks so far this year, but my gut tells me that they are going to lose this game.
My Pick: Seattle doesn’t lose at home (although the numbers say that they should here)
Denver (1-1, 0-1 away)
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New England (2-0, 1-0 home)
Trust me, Bill Belichick can’t wait to see the Broncos on Sunday night. You think that the Patriots have forgotten the (mostly) ref-induced Denver debacle that was their playoff exit last year? Not a chance, because Belichick will be reminding them every waking second. All I can say is this: If Jake Plummer thought things were going badly before, he is in for a rude awakening on Sunday. The screams for Cutler will only get louder from here on out…
My Pick: Pats defense will have a field day at Plummer’s expense
SAFE PICK
That’s it for now. Stay tuned for my Monday Night pick…
Okay, enough ego-stroking for one post. Let’s switch gears now and discuss some things that I was really wrong about in Week 2:
The Bills shocked me by defeating the Dolphins (a trendy preseason Super Bowl pick) despite the absence of Takeo Spikes. This was because Dante Culpepper is not the same quarterback since his return from knee surgery. He looks tentative on every play, and refuses to leave the pocket even when he feels pressure coming. The Bills sacked him seven times on Sunday and held his team scoreless until the waning moments of the game. Where is the confident, proficient passer who would, on a regular basis, scramble to escape the defense and make game-breaking plays? I’m not sure if he still exists, but if he still does, he better make an appearance soon or the Dolphins’ playoff hopes are kaput. I know one thing for sure…Miami is wishing that they had signed Drew Brees instead when they had the chance…
On to the Tampa/Atlanta game…I can’t help but digress for a moment and comment on the Falcons’ new offense. In the short term, the Falcons’ “college option” offense looks unstoppable. Tampa Bay has what I consider to be a solid run defense, but Atlanta decimated it on Sunday en route to a team record in rushing yards. What really surprised me in this game though was Tampa’s inability to put points on the board. Chris Simms threw for 313 yards and Galloway had 9 receptions for 161 yards and they could only put 3 points on the board?!? Keep in mind that Galloway was getting open quite frequently despite being covered by Hall, one of the top CBs in the league. This leads me to believe that if Simms can cut down on his mistakes, this offense still has a chance to thrive. Does that mean that the Buccaneers still have a shot at a playoff berth? That remains to be seen. Does it mean that they can beat the Panthers on Sunday? I’ll keep you in suspense for now…and move on to this week’s picks:
Last Week: 11-5
(SAFE PICKS: 6-1)
Season: 20-12
(SAFE PICKS: 9-2)
New York Jets (1-1, 1-0 away)
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Buffalo (1-1, 0-0 home)
I’ve heard way too many media members complimenting the Bills’ defense over the last two weeks…in my opinion they really aren’t that good. They beat up on the Dolphins last week simply because Culpepper was hesitant and refused to scramble. They played the Patriots close but New England really just looked sloppy in that game (which was understandable as it was the first game of the season). They have proven nothing to me. And I still think that it is impossible for J.P. Losman to lead a winning team. How can you depend on a quarterback who takes a safety by running out of the end zone? Furthermore, how can you expect to stop an efficient passing attack when you are starting two rookies at safety? An efficient passing attack is exactly what the New York Jets have, and I think that Chad Pennington, Laverneus Coles and Cotchery will expose the Bills’ secondary for what it is—a major weakness. Pennington may not be able to throw a ball 60 yards, but he is a very smart and efficient quarterback who reads defenses as well as anyone in the league and is very good at finding open receivers for short and medium completions. If Kevin Barlow gets things going, New York could compete for a playoff berth. That being said, even if Barlow rushes for under 50 yards, the Jets will have no trouble beating the Bills in this game…
My Pick:
Jets win the battle of New York
SAFE PICK
Green Bay (0-2, 0-0 away)
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Detroit (0-2, 0-1 home)
I feel as though both of these teams, were they not playing each other, would be 0-3 after Sunday. Since they are playing each other though, one of them has to end up in the win column…I think that that team will be the Packers. They may have lost a disappointing game last week at home to the Saints, but at least they have shown some semblance of an offense (Favre threw for over 300 yards and they scored 27 points last week). The Lions have managed a total of 13 points in their first two contests. (Note to Vegas: How can you favor a team by a touchdown when they have only scored one touchdown in their first 2 games?)
My Pick:
Green Bay picks up their first win on the road.
Jacksonville (2-0, 0-0 away)
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Indianapolis (2-0, 1-0 home)
The Jaguars looked very impressive on Monday (as mentioned earlier) but they face an even tougher task on Sunday, facing a passing attack that is hotter than Natalie Portman. Peyton Manning threw for 400 yards last week and spread the ball all over the field. Granted he was facing quite possibly the worst pass defense in the league, but he looks pretty damn confident right now. If this game was in Jacksonville and they had not gritted out two tough victories over talented teams in the first two weeks, I would give the Jags a shot, but I am pretty confident that with the game being in Indy, and with the Colts being less worn out, they will win.
My Pick:
Colts hand a tough Jags team their first defeat
Tennessee (0-2, 0-1 away)
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Miami (0-2, 0-1 home)
Now, as I mentioned earlier, Miami has been a very bad team thus far; however, the Titans are in a whole other league of “bad”. Their defense is very balanced; that is to say that they are just as inept at stopping the run as they are the pass. This is just the type of match-up that Culpepper needs to boost his confidence…
My Pick:
The ‘phins pick up their first win
SAFE PICK
Chicago (2-0, 1-0 away)
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Minnesota (2-0, 1-0 home)
The Vikings’ 2-0 record is a bit misleading…they have relied on excellent coaching, hard work and a little luck to get to this point. They really don’t have any players at any position that scare you, but in the NFC North, they have a good shot at finishing 9-7 and stealing a wildcard berth. On the other hand, they have very little chance of defeating the Bears, who not only have the best defense in the NFC (again) but also feature a budding star in QB Rex Grossman, who threw 4 TD passes last week against Detroit. If Grossman can keep playing at a high, or at least better than average, level, the Bears have a very good shot at making it to the Super Bowl.
My Pick: The Bears decimate another division “rival”
SAFE PICK
Cincinnati (2-0, 1-0 away)
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Pittsburgh (1-1, 1-0 home)
Carson Palmer has been waiting for 9 months to seek revenge on the team that knocked the Bengals out of the playoffs and sent him off the field with a career-threatening knee injury. He has caught the Steelers at a bad time too, coming off a shutout loss to the Jaguars in which Rothelisberger struggled mightily, throwing three interceptions, and Willie Parker only rushed for 20 yards. The Pittsburgh defense looked good last week, but do you really expect them to hold down the Cincinnati offense? Everywhere you look, there are guys that can hurt you: Carson Palmer at QB (352 yards and 2 TD passes last week), Rudi Johnson at RB (26 carries for 145 yards and 2 TDs), and three outstanding WRs in Chad Johnson (78 yards and a TD), Chris Henry (113 yards) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (making his season debut in this game). If Pittsburgh gets its act together offensively, this will turn into a shootout (as there is no “D” in Bengal). If not, it will be a blowout. Either way, the Bengals will win.
My Pick: Bengals avenge last year’s divisional playoff defeat
SAFE PICK
Carolina (0-2, 0-1 away)
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Tampa Bay (0-2, 0-1 home)
Sports Illustrated, in its preseason predictions, picked Carolina to win the Super Bowl. This is significant firstly because I cannot remember them picking a single Super Bowl representative correctly in the last 5 or so years; secondly, because the last time they picked the Panthers to win the Super Bowl, Carolina proceeded to lose its first three games (and then some), all without the services of Steve Smith, and failed to make the playoffs. The Panthers have a lot of history to overcome here. They also need to get their running game on track because DeShaun Foster looks like he is three steps slower this year, averaging only 2.9 yards per carry and showing no ability to break tackles. Steve Smith may play this week, but you have to expect him to be a bit rusty with all of the time that he has been sitting on the sideline. Tampa did lose pretty badly last week, but I feel that the score was misleading: the scoring opportunities were there. Simms threw for over 300 yards and Galloway caught 9 balls for over 160 yards…and Simms missed him several times when he was open in the end zone! The Bucs just haven’t capitalized on their opportunities and I think that they are bound to start doing so eventually…their passing game should be better than the Panthers’ on Sunday (even with the potential return of Smith) and I think that they will hold on for the win here.
My Pick: Tampa wins (history repeats itself)
Washington (0-2, 0-1 away)
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Houston (0-2, 0-1 home)
For much of Sunday’s game against Dallas, Washington was able to compensate for their injury-ravaged secondary by sticking more players out there and shying away from putting pressure on the quarterback. Eventually though, with enough time to see the field, Bledsoe was able to break their defense down and lead his team to victory. It certainly didn’t help that Mark Brunell (who should not still be in the NFL) only completed 8 of his first 20 passes, but that’s a different story. The stacked coverage defense that Washington is forced to play is much more important in regards to this game. This is because of Texans quarterback David Carr. There is a distinct pattern surrounding Carr’s triumphs and struggles: when his offensive line (which has been awful ever since he came into the league) gives him enough time to throw the ball he is very successful; when his offensive line breaks down, he gets sacked a lot. Now, since Washington is still forced to play special teams players in their secondary, I expect that they will have to double-team Eric Moulds and Andre Johnson (two excellent receivers) on pretty much every play. This means that they most likely won’t be putting much pressure on Carr, which bodes well for him. Since the Texans’ defense is pretty awful, if Mark Brunell has anything left, this will turn into a shootout. Unfortunately for Washington fans though, Brunell looks washed up and it doesn’t look like Gibbs plans on benching him anytime soon.
My Pick: The Texans pick up their first win at home
Baltimore (2-0, 1-0 away)
Cleveland (0-2, 0-1 home)
I could spend a paragraph here talking about how good Baltimore’s defense is and how bad Cleveland is on both sides of the ball but I won’t. It would be a waste of both my time and yours.
My Pick: Ravens (insert intelligent comment that equates to “duh” here)
SAFE PICK
St. Louis (1-1, 0-1 away)
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Arizona (1-1, 1-0 home)
The Cardinals had the top passing attack in the league last year and have looked pretty good in that regard this year as well. Now that they actually have a running game (Edgerrin James) they boast a pretty formidable offense. Meanwhile, the Rams’ defense looked ineptly balanced last week in their loss to the 49ers, allowing 127 rushing yards to Frank Gore and 131 receiving yards to Antonio Bryant. I get the feeling that Kurt Warner (who way-back-when led them to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances) will tear them apart through the air and James will do his part on the ground. The Rams may score some points to keep this interesting (the Cardinals’ defense is pretty awful too) but I expect Arizona to prevail.
My Pick: Cardinals win a shootout at home
Philadelphia (1-1, 1-0 away)
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San Francisco (1-1, 1-0 home)
The 49ers’ offense has looked pretty good the first 2 weeks, but they are simply overmatched here. Their fourth quarter meltdown aside, the Eagles look like the class of the NFC thus far. Donovan McNabb looks better than ever this season (300+ passing yards in each of the first 2 weeks) and I expect more of the same from him on Sunday against a pretty weak 49er secondary. Terrell who?
My Pick: Eagles win on the road
SAFE PICK
New York Giants (1-1, 1-0 away)
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Seattle (2-0, 1-0 home)
For a combination of reasons, many of which elude me, Seattle is a much much better team at home than they are on the road. I thought that the Giants showed a lot of grit last week in their crazy comeback win over the Eagles, but I still feel like I need to give the edge to Seattle here. This is more of an intuition pick than anything else. The Giants have looked much better than the Seahawks so far this year, but my gut tells me that they are going to lose this game.
My Pick: Seattle doesn’t lose at home (although the numbers say that they should here)
Denver (1-1, 0-1 away)
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New England (2-0, 1-0 home)
Trust me, Bill Belichick can’t wait to see the Broncos on Sunday night. You think that the Patriots have forgotten the (mostly) ref-induced Denver debacle that was their playoff exit last year? Not a chance, because Belichick will be reminding them every waking second. All I can say is this: If Jake Plummer thought things were going badly before, he is in for a rude awakening on Sunday. The screams for Cutler will only get louder from here on out…
My Pick: Pats defense will have a field day at Plummer’s expense
SAFE PICK
That’s it for now. Stay tuned for my Monday Night pick…
Sunday, September 17, 2006
And then there was Monday...
I am going to keep this short and to the point since I have to get up early for class tomorrow morning. We can discuss Sunday’s games during next weekend’s post…Let’s get right to the Monday night match-up:
Pittsburgh (1-0, 0-0 away)
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Jacksonville (1-0, 1-0 home)
Jacksonville’s pass defense looked superb last week, harassing Drew Bledsoe into throwing three interceptions including a game-clinching pick in the fourth quarter. Their run defense looked solid as well, holding Dallas to 88 yards on the ground. Byron Leftwich did an excellent job of managing the game and not making the big mistakes that his counterpart, Bledsoe, did. Pittsburgh looked pretty dominating in their opener, picking apart Miami (a trendy preseason Super Bowl pick) with their backup QB Charlie Batch. This week they have Roethlisberger back so, to be hopelessly cliché, “the sky’s the limit”, right? Wrong. Bill Cowher better keep an oil can ready…I expect Big Ben’s gears to be a bit rusty. Keep in mind that this is his first action of the season and he is facing, on the road, a defense that kept the Cowboys’ high-octane offense (featuring tough and speedy wide outs Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens) in check last week. Trust me, the Jaguars will be ready for Roethlisberger. I am surprised that more people don’t agree with me. Besides their excellent and balanced defense, the Jaguars also feature three talented young WRs in Wilford, Jones and Williams that will keep the Pittsburgh defense honest by not allowing them to key in on one guy, and they have a fearless competitor in Leftwich who, if my memory serves correct, willed his team to back-to-back victories over Cincinnati and Pittsburgh (in my opinion the top two teams in the NFL last year) last season. How quick people can be in writing teams off as overrated and disregarding their youth and inexperience. The Jags are for real. Their 12-4 record last season was not an aberration. They can play with the best teams in the NFL and I expect them to remind their critics of that fact on Monday night.
My Pick:
The Jaguars ‘claw’ their way to victory!
Pittsburgh (1-0, 0-0 away)
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Jacksonville (1-0, 1-0 home)
Jacksonville’s pass defense looked superb last week, harassing Drew Bledsoe into throwing three interceptions including a game-clinching pick in the fourth quarter. Their run defense looked solid as well, holding Dallas to 88 yards on the ground. Byron Leftwich did an excellent job of managing the game and not making the big mistakes that his counterpart, Bledsoe, did. Pittsburgh looked pretty dominating in their opener, picking apart Miami (a trendy preseason Super Bowl pick) with their backup QB Charlie Batch. This week they have Roethlisberger back so, to be hopelessly cliché, “the sky’s the limit”, right? Wrong. Bill Cowher better keep an oil can ready…I expect Big Ben’s gears to be a bit rusty. Keep in mind that this is his first action of the season and he is facing, on the road, a defense that kept the Cowboys’ high-octane offense (featuring tough and speedy wide outs Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens) in check last week. Trust me, the Jaguars will be ready for Roethlisberger. I am surprised that more people don’t agree with me. Besides their excellent and balanced defense, the Jaguars also feature three talented young WRs in Wilford, Jones and Williams that will keep the Pittsburgh defense honest by not allowing them to key in on one guy, and they have a fearless competitor in Leftwich who, if my memory serves correct, willed his team to back-to-back victories over Cincinnati and Pittsburgh (in my opinion the top two teams in the NFL last year) last season. How quick people can be in writing teams off as overrated and disregarding their youth and inexperience. The Jags are for real. Their 12-4 record last season was not an aberration. They can play with the best teams in the NFL and I expect them to remind their critics of that fact on Monday night.
My Pick:
The Jaguars ‘claw’ their way to victory!
Saturday, September 16, 2006
Ah, here it goes...
Yes, I know. I was really wrong about several things last week. But, keep in mind that it was the first week of the season and nobody, not even me, really knows what to expect out of many of these teams. I will take a little time here to apologize for my appalling lack of respect shown towards the Baltimore Ravens’ defense. Yes, they had some trouble last year…but if I had really stopped to think about it I would have realized that this was simply because they were plagued by injuries. Everyone is healthy now and they look damn scary. In an effort to be fair and balanced, I would also like to point out that I was dead-on in my assessment of Broncos’ QB Jake Plummer. Another performance like Sunday’s game and Plummer will be taking a seat on the bench and will be usurped by rookie Jay Cutler, who Shanahan traded up for in the draft. As I said last week, when there’s pressure on Jake the (Garter) Snake he responds poorly…
At any rate, it’s time to move on to this week’s games…
Last Week: 9-7
(Safe Picks: 3-1)
Season: 9-7
(Safe Picks: 3-1)
Tampa Bay (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Atlanta (1-0, 0-0 home)
Ok, so I was really wrong last week about both of these teams…especially Tampa Bay. I picked the Bucs to blow out the Ravens, and made the game one of my SAFE PICKs, which was a pretty impetuous move on my part. As mentioned above, I grossly underestimated the Ravens’ defense. I do expect Jon Gruden to fire his team up this week, and I think that the Bucs will respond. I think they were as surprised as I was by the ferocity of the Ravens’ D, but they will be ready for the Falcons this week. Atlanta looked impressive in their victory over Carolina, but keep in mind that the Panthers were and are still without Steve Smith, the premier wide out in the league. Also, Patrick Kerney and John Abraham are banged up and may not play. I expect that, with more time to sit back in the pocket, Chris Simms will have a lot more success throwing the ball down the field to Galloway and Clayton and Tampa Bay should be able to hold on for the victory.
My Pick: Tampa airs out a victory on the road
Detroit (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Chicago (1-0, 0-0 home)
Chicago’s defense looked stronger than ever at Lambeau Field last week, embarrassing Brett Favre yet again. More importantly, Rex Grossman looked really solid at quarterback and did an excellent job of spreading the ball around and moving the chains. He’ll have a bit of a tougher test against the improved Lions’ defense, but he should be able to help put a few points on the board and the defense will take care of the rest.
My Pick: Bears take care of business at home…
SAFE PICK
Cleveland (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Cincinnati (1-0, 0-0 home)
My mathematical formula for the Bengals/Chiefs game last week could not have been more inaccurate…I predicted a shootout, it was a relatively low scoring game…I said that the Chiefs would win on a last second TD run by Larry Johnson, LJ had one of his worst games in recent memory and the Chiefs lost…Nevertheless, I am going to give the formula pick concept another try:
One high scoring offense + One Superstar QB who has overcome the first game jitters after major knee surgery and is ready to shine + One improved rush defense that held one of the top RBs in the league to 68 yards last week + One pass rush that had 7 sacks last week against a decent offensive line + One team with an average offensive line and a running back that couldn’t even gain 30 yards against the Saints = A HUGE win for the Bengals
My Pick: Bengals (The formula says it all)
SAFE PICK
New Orleans (1-0, 1-0 away)
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Green Bay (0-1, 0-1 home)
The Saints opened the season with a surprising victory in Cleveland and hope to continue their early success against the Packers in Green Bay. I love the young talent of the Saints and I think that they may be an exciting team to watch for a long time. However, I can’t see them winning this game. If Favre has any competitive fire left, he will find a way to propel his team to victory here. If he can’t, he might as well retire and let the rebuilding process begin in Green Bay…because if the Packers can’t beat an average team in their own building in a must-win situation then they aren’t going to make the playoffs, plain and simple.
My Pick: Packers give the Lambeau faithful something to cheer about…for now.
Houston (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Indianapolis (1-0, 0-0 home)
The Houston passing game actually looked pretty good against the Eagles last week. They have a good quarterback in David Carr and excellent wide outs in Andre Johnson and Eric Moulds. Unfortunately, their defense hasn’t shown much improvement so far and their running game has stalled with Dominick Davis’s injury. The acquisition of Gado from the Packers may help them out in the running department, but the Colts’ passing game will be too much for the Texans’ secondary to handle.
My Pick: Colts win at home, but the Texans put some points on the board and keep it interesting
Buffalo (0-1, 0-1 away)
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Miami (0-1, 0-0 home)
Miami’s defense looked a bit shaky against Pittsburgh in Week 1 when they were unable to rush the quarterback or cover the Steelers’ WRs or TEs in the secondary. Their running game was awful as well and Culpepper threw a couple of costly interceptions in the fourth quarter that cost them the game. Still, one game does not a season make. Nick Saban has had three extra days to prepare his troops for this game, and you have to believe that they are going to be a different team come Sunday. The Bills looked pretty good last week for a half, but I can’t see them pulling out a win here on the road. J.P. Losman will make mistakes early and often and I foresee the Dolphins taking advantage of them.
My Pick: Dolphins recover from last week’s debacle and get the win
SAFE PICK
Carolina (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Minnesota (1-0, 0-0 home)
Word on the street (well the CBSsportsline.com street) is that Steve Smith did not practice today which means that it is highly unlikely that he would play on Sunday. As we saw last week, the Panthers just aren’t the same team without him. The Vikings rush defense looks much improved this year and they kept the Redskins’ RBs in check last week; I expect them to give DeShaun Foster a similar treatment. Minnesota’s offensive line looked really solid last week against a pretty good Redskin pass rush, so I expect them to hold their own against the Panthers. The Panthers are reeling right now while the Vikings are high on themselves and are playing at home…
My Pick: Vikings open the season a surprising 2-0 by beating one of last year’s playoff teams for the second straight week
New York Giants (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Philadelphia (1-0, 0-0 home)
I liked what I saw out of both of these teams last week (forget the ‘skins and Cowboys, these two teams are the class of the division) but I was really impressed by the Eagles…They look like they are ready to return to their form of two years ago and have found a new star wide out in Dante Stallworth. Brian Westbrook looks better than ever. McNabb looks like he has a chip on his shoulder after last year’s debacle of a season and he seems determined to prove all of his critics wrong, and I for one wouldn’t bet against him. Granted, they played the Texans, whose secondary resembles that of my intramural team, so they really haven’t proven anything yet. The Giants’ DBs shouldn’t give them much of a test either. This game will give the Eagles’ front line a chance to prove themselves as they face one of the top RBs in the league in Tiki Barber. I think that offensively the G-men will put up some points, but not enough to beat the rejuvenated Eagles on the road.
My Pick: Eagles continue their march towards a 4-0 start
Oakland (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Baltimore (1-0, 0-0 home)
I think that I spent enough time in this post explaining my new stance towards the Ravens’ D…and as I said last week this Raiders team is likely the worst team in the NFL.
Enough said.
My Pick: Ravens hold their second straight opponent to single digit points
SAFE PICK
St. Louis (1-0, 0-0 away)
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San Francisco (0-1, 0-0 home)
The 49ers’ offense looks to be light years ahead of where it was last year. If only their defense could say the same. Kurt Warner picked their secondary apart last week and I expect Marc Bulger to do the same. Look for a big day out of Tory Holt that will overshadow solid performances from Alex Smith and Frank Gore.
My Pick: Rams win a wild one on the road
Arizona (1-0, 0-0 away)
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Seattle (1-0, 0-0 home)
The Seahawks’ offense may be sputtering but the defense looked great last week, holding Detroit to just six points. They should be able to slow down the high-powered offense of the Cardinals a bit. Also, I expect the Seattle offense to get back on track on Sunday. We saw what Frank Gore did against the Cardinals’ front line last week…imagine what Shaun Alexander, last year’s NFL rushing leader and MVP, will do against them this week. I don’t buy into the theory that Alexander is only a product of his offensive line…a good offensive line can make an average back look good but I don’t think that they make a good back great. Alexander is the real deal…he just got of to a slow start in the opener this year just as he did last year. Hutchinson’s departure will not affect him nearly as much as critics seem to think that it will.
My Pick: Alexander runs all over the Cardinals at home
SAFE PICK
Kansas City (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Denver (0-1, 0-0 home)
I feel like I’ve picked on Plummer enough for one week so I’ll lay off of him for a minute (or at least a sentence). I don’t think that the Chiefs’ passing game is going to put up many points with Damon Huard at quarterback. I do think that Larry Johnson will have a good game but he can’t do it all by himself. I think that Mike Shanahan, after what he saw out of Plummer last week, will manage him very careful and have him hand off the ball to one of the Bells whenever possible to exploit the Chiefs’ horrendous run defense. For this week at least, Plummer won’t look too bad. Then again, he won’t look that good either. If the Broncos want to go anywhere in the playoffs this year, they better be ready to replace him with Cutler before too much longer.
My Pick: Broncos feast on the Chiefs’ weak front line
New England (1-0, 0-0 away)
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New York Jets (1-0, 0-0 home)
This game could be a lot closer than many experts seem to think it will be. Chad Pennington looks as good as he has ever looked throwing the ball right now and Laveranues Coles looks healthy and ready to be a reliable receiving threat again. Everyone seems to hate the Jets’ running game but I think that Barlow is a better back than most people think. This is a chance for him to prove himself…if he doesn’t step up than the Patriots will be able to load up to stop the pass. The Jets have a shot at a playoff run if they can find some balance in their offense…and their defense. Dillon and Maroney should have pretty big days on the ground and New England should be able to scrape together a win here…the Jets will keep it close though.
My Pick: Pats hold on for the victory on the road
Tennessee (0-1, 0-0 away)
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San Diego (1-0, 0-0 home)
The Titans might as well throw Vince Young out there and give him some on-field experience…I don’t see how he could be any worse than Billy Volek or Kerry Collins. The Chargers should be able to pick up another win here by again only using their defense and superb running game. They are playing it safe with Philip Rivers so far and not asking him to do too much…it’s worked so far but eventually the kid gloves will have to come off when they finally face a team that has a shot at winning more games than it loses.
My Pick: Tomlinson grinds out another victory for the Chargers
SAFE PICK
Washington (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Dallas (0-1, 0-0 home)
Neither of these teams look like they are as good as advertised…QB Drew Bledsoe imploded last week for the Cowboys, throwing awful pass after awful pass. The ‘skins’ woes worry much more than Dallas’s though. Forget the Clinton Portis injury (he will likely not play this week)—Washington’s real problems stem from the injuries to their secondary. Top CB Shawn Springs is still out and Carlos Rodgers was beaten long way too often last week by Minnesota’s mediocre WRs…and he’s the best healthy corner that they have right now. The speedy Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens should have a field day on Sunday. Bledsoe should get some of the critics off of his back…for now.It'll be pretty difficult to miss receivers that are open by 10 yards...
My Pick: Dallas goes deep for the victory at home
SAFE PICK
That’s it for now. Check back Sunday night for my thoughts on the Monday night game…
At any rate, it’s time to move on to this week’s games…
Last Week: 9-7
(Safe Picks: 3-1)
Season: 9-7
(Safe Picks: 3-1)
Tampa Bay (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Atlanta (1-0, 0-0 home)
Ok, so I was really wrong last week about both of these teams…especially Tampa Bay. I picked the Bucs to blow out the Ravens, and made the game one of my SAFE PICKs, which was a pretty impetuous move on my part. As mentioned above, I grossly underestimated the Ravens’ defense. I do expect Jon Gruden to fire his team up this week, and I think that the Bucs will respond. I think they were as surprised as I was by the ferocity of the Ravens’ D, but they will be ready for the Falcons this week. Atlanta looked impressive in their victory over Carolina, but keep in mind that the Panthers were and are still without Steve Smith, the premier wide out in the league. Also, Patrick Kerney and John Abraham are banged up and may not play. I expect that, with more time to sit back in the pocket, Chris Simms will have a lot more success throwing the ball down the field to Galloway and Clayton and Tampa Bay should be able to hold on for the victory.
My Pick: Tampa airs out a victory on the road
Detroit (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Chicago (1-0, 0-0 home)
Chicago’s defense looked stronger than ever at Lambeau Field last week, embarrassing Brett Favre yet again. More importantly, Rex Grossman looked really solid at quarterback and did an excellent job of spreading the ball around and moving the chains. He’ll have a bit of a tougher test against the improved Lions’ defense, but he should be able to help put a few points on the board and the defense will take care of the rest.
My Pick: Bears take care of business at home…
SAFE PICK
Cleveland (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Cincinnati (1-0, 0-0 home)
My mathematical formula for the Bengals/Chiefs game last week could not have been more inaccurate…I predicted a shootout, it was a relatively low scoring game…I said that the Chiefs would win on a last second TD run by Larry Johnson, LJ had one of his worst games in recent memory and the Chiefs lost…Nevertheless, I am going to give the formula pick concept another try:
One high scoring offense + One Superstar QB who has overcome the first game jitters after major knee surgery and is ready to shine + One improved rush defense that held one of the top RBs in the league to 68 yards last week + One pass rush that had 7 sacks last week against a decent offensive line + One team with an average offensive line and a running back that couldn’t even gain 30 yards against the Saints = A HUGE win for the Bengals
My Pick: Bengals (The formula says it all)
SAFE PICK
New Orleans (1-0, 1-0 away)
at
Green Bay (0-1, 0-1 home)
The Saints opened the season with a surprising victory in Cleveland and hope to continue their early success against the Packers in Green Bay. I love the young talent of the Saints and I think that they may be an exciting team to watch for a long time. However, I can’t see them winning this game. If Favre has any competitive fire left, he will find a way to propel his team to victory here. If he can’t, he might as well retire and let the rebuilding process begin in Green Bay…because if the Packers can’t beat an average team in their own building in a must-win situation then they aren’t going to make the playoffs, plain and simple.
My Pick: Packers give the Lambeau faithful something to cheer about…for now.
Houston (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Indianapolis (1-0, 0-0 home)
The Houston passing game actually looked pretty good against the Eagles last week. They have a good quarterback in David Carr and excellent wide outs in Andre Johnson and Eric Moulds. Unfortunately, their defense hasn’t shown much improvement so far and their running game has stalled with Dominick Davis’s injury. The acquisition of Gado from the Packers may help them out in the running department, but the Colts’ passing game will be too much for the Texans’ secondary to handle.
My Pick: Colts win at home, but the Texans put some points on the board and keep it interesting
Buffalo (0-1, 0-1 away)
at
Miami (0-1, 0-0 home)
Miami’s defense looked a bit shaky against Pittsburgh in Week 1 when they were unable to rush the quarterback or cover the Steelers’ WRs or TEs in the secondary. Their running game was awful as well and Culpepper threw a couple of costly interceptions in the fourth quarter that cost them the game. Still, one game does not a season make. Nick Saban has had three extra days to prepare his troops for this game, and you have to believe that they are going to be a different team come Sunday. The Bills looked pretty good last week for a half, but I can’t see them pulling out a win here on the road. J.P. Losman will make mistakes early and often and I foresee the Dolphins taking advantage of them.
My Pick: Dolphins recover from last week’s debacle and get the win
SAFE PICK
Carolina (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Minnesota (1-0, 0-0 home)
Word on the street (well the CBSsportsline.com street) is that Steve Smith did not practice today which means that it is highly unlikely that he would play on Sunday. As we saw last week, the Panthers just aren’t the same team without him. The Vikings rush defense looks much improved this year and they kept the Redskins’ RBs in check last week; I expect them to give DeShaun Foster a similar treatment. Minnesota’s offensive line looked really solid last week against a pretty good Redskin pass rush, so I expect them to hold their own against the Panthers. The Panthers are reeling right now while the Vikings are high on themselves and are playing at home…
My Pick: Vikings open the season a surprising 2-0 by beating one of last year’s playoff teams for the second straight week
New York Giants (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Philadelphia (1-0, 0-0 home)
I liked what I saw out of both of these teams last week (forget the ‘skins and Cowboys, these two teams are the class of the division) but I was really impressed by the Eagles…They look like they are ready to return to their form of two years ago and have found a new star wide out in Dante Stallworth. Brian Westbrook looks better than ever. McNabb looks like he has a chip on his shoulder after last year’s debacle of a season and he seems determined to prove all of his critics wrong, and I for one wouldn’t bet against him. Granted, they played the Texans, whose secondary resembles that of my intramural team, so they really haven’t proven anything yet. The Giants’ DBs shouldn’t give them much of a test either. This game will give the Eagles’ front line a chance to prove themselves as they face one of the top RBs in the league in Tiki Barber. I think that offensively the G-men will put up some points, but not enough to beat the rejuvenated Eagles on the road.
My Pick: Eagles continue their march towards a 4-0 start
Oakland (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Baltimore (1-0, 0-0 home)
I think that I spent enough time in this post explaining my new stance towards the Ravens’ D…and as I said last week this Raiders team is likely the worst team in the NFL.
Enough said.
My Pick: Ravens hold their second straight opponent to single digit points
SAFE PICK
St. Louis (1-0, 0-0 away)
at
San Francisco (0-1, 0-0 home)
The 49ers’ offense looks to be light years ahead of where it was last year. If only their defense could say the same. Kurt Warner picked their secondary apart last week and I expect Marc Bulger to do the same. Look for a big day out of Tory Holt that will overshadow solid performances from Alex Smith and Frank Gore.
My Pick: Rams win a wild one on the road
Arizona (1-0, 0-0 away)
at
Seattle (1-0, 0-0 home)
The Seahawks’ offense may be sputtering but the defense looked great last week, holding Detroit to just six points. They should be able to slow down the high-powered offense of the Cardinals a bit. Also, I expect the Seattle offense to get back on track on Sunday. We saw what Frank Gore did against the Cardinals’ front line last week…imagine what Shaun Alexander, last year’s NFL rushing leader and MVP, will do against them this week. I don’t buy into the theory that Alexander is only a product of his offensive line…a good offensive line can make an average back look good but I don’t think that they make a good back great. Alexander is the real deal…he just got of to a slow start in the opener this year just as he did last year. Hutchinson’s departure will not affect him nearly as much as critics seem to think that it will.
My Pick: Alexander runs all over the Cardinals at home
SAFE PICK
Kansas City (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Denver (0-1, 0-0 home)
I feel like I’ve picked on Plummer enough for one week so I’ll lay off of him for a minute (or at least a sentence). I don’t think that the Chiefs’ passing game is going to put up many points with Damon Huard at quarterback. I do think that Larry Johnson will have a good game but he can’t do it all by himself. I think that Mike Shanahan, after what he saw out of Plummer last week, will manage him very careful and have him hand off the ball to one of the Bells whenever possible to exploit the Chiefs’ horrendous run defense. For this week at least, Plummer won’t look too bad. Then again, he won’t look that good either. If the Broncos want to go anywhere in the playoffs this year, they better be ready to replace him with Cutler before too much longer.
My Pick: Broncos feast on the Chiefs’ weak front line
New England (1-0, 0-0 away)
at
New York Jets (1-0, 0-0 home)
This game could be a lot closer than many experts seem to think it will be. Chad Pennington looks as good as he has ever looked throwing the ball right now and Laveranues Coles looks healthy and ready to be a reliable receiving threat again. Everyone seems to hate the Jets’ running game but I think that Barlow is a better back than most people think. This is a chance for him to prove himself…if he doesn’t step up than the Patriots will be able to load up to stop the pass. The Jets have a shot at a playoff run if they can find some balance in their offense…and their defense. Dillon and Maroney should have pretty big days on the ground and New England should be able to scrape together a win here…the Jets will keep it close though.
My Pick: Pats hold on for the victory on the road
Tennessee (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
San Diego (1-0, 0-0 home)
The Titans might as well throw Vince Young out there and give him some on-field experience…I don’t see how he could be any worse than Billy Volek or Kerry Collins. The Chargers should be able to pick up another win here by again only using their defense and superb running game. They are playing it safe with Philip Rivers so far and not asking him to do too much…it’s worked so far but eventually the kid gloves will have to come off when they finally face a team that has a shot at winning more games than it loses.
My Pick: Tomlinson grinds out another victory for the Chargers
SAFE PICK
Washington (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Dallas (0-1, 0-0 home)
Neither of these teams look like they are as good as advertised…QB Drew Bledsoe imploded last week for the Cowboys, throwing awful pass after awful pass. The ‘skins’ woes worry much more than Dallas’s though. Forget the Clinton Portis injury (he will likely not play this week)—Washington’s real problems stem from the injuries to their secondary. Top CB Shawn Springs is still out and Carlos Rodgers was beaten long way too often last week by Minnesota’s mediocre WRs…and he’s the best healthy corner that they have right now. The speedy Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens should have a field day on Sunday. Bledsoe should get some of the critics off of his back…for now.It'll be pretty difficult to miss receivers that are open by 10 yards...
My Pick: Dallas goes deep for the victory at home
SAFE PICK
That’s it for now. Check back Sunday night for my thoughts on the Monday night game…
Monday, September 11, 2006
Just a Quicky...
There are about fifty different things about Sunday’s games that I would like to comment on, but due to the restraints of time, I will have to wait until next week.
Here are my picks for tonight’s games:
Minnesota at Washington 7 P.M.
I was really tempted to pick the Vikings to win this game…The Redskins are really hurting and Mark Brunell looked awful in the preseason. The problem is, I don’t fear any of the Vikings’ wide receivers (now that Robinson is gone) and neither do the Redskins. If Washington can keep the Vikings’ receivers in check with single coverage (as I expect they will able to), then the Redskins will be blitzing the hell out of Brad Johnson. I know Minnesota’s offensive line is supposed to be pretty good this year, but I think they will crumble eventually under this onslaught. As for Washington’s offense…Clinton Portis likely won’t play, but the ‘skins have plenty of depth at the position and Betts and Duckett will pick up the slack. I’m not sure what to expect out of Brunell but I expect he’ll complete a couple deep balls to Santana Moss and the defense and special teams will take care of the rest. Hey, it worked last season.
My Pick: Redskins take care of business at home…but Brunell still looks shaky
San Diego at Oakland 10 P.M.
The Raiders have had some serious QB issues over the last couple seasons…so they went out and fixed them all…by signing Aaron Brooks, who has thrown one more TD pass than INT over the last two seasons. Randy Moss cannot be happy…I wouldn’t be surprised to see him ask for a trade before the season is over. What are the Raiders thinking? They had a chance to draft a quarterback in the first round but instead decided that it made much more sense to continue wasting the ability of their only top tier talent (Moss) by sticking another quarterback in the lineup who is just as likely to throw the ball to the other team as to Moss. In short, the Raiders will be awful again this year. Philip Rivers is unproven and I’m not sure what to expect from him but I imagine that he will hand the ball off to Tomlinson for most of the game and let him take care of business on the ground in Oakland, where he rushed for 140 yards last season.
My Pick: LT lifts the Chargers over the Raiders
Here are my picks for tonight’s games:
Minnesota at Washington 7 P.M.
I was really tempted to pick the Vikings to win this game…The Redskins are really hurting and Mark Brunell looked awful in the preseason. The problem is, I don’t fear any of the Vikings’ wide receivers (now that Robinson is gone) and neither do the Redskins. If Washington can keep the Vikings’ receivers in check with single coverage (as I expect they will able to), then the Redskins will be blitzing the hell out of Brad Johnson. I know Minnesota’s offensive line is supposed to be pretty good this year, but I think they will crumble eventually under this onslaught. As for Washington’s offense…Clinton Portis likely won’t play, but the ‘skins have plenty of depth at the position and Betts and Duckett will pick up the slack. I’m not sure what to expect out of Brunell but I expect he’ll complete a couple deep balls to Santana Moss and the defense and special teams will take care of the rest. Hey, it worked last season.
My Pick: Redskins take care of business at home…but Brunell still looks shaky
San Diego at Oakland 10 P.M.
The Raiders have had some serious QB issues over the last couple seasons…so they went out and fixed them all…by signing Aaron Brooks, who has thrown one more TD pass than INT over the last two seasons. Randy Moss cannot be happy…I wouldn’t be surprised to see him ask for a trade before the season is over. What are the Raiders thinking? They had a chance to draft a quarterback in the first round but instead decided that it made much more sense to continue wasting the ability of their only top tier talent (Moss) by sticking another quarterback in the lineup who is just as likely to throw the ball to the other team as to Moss. In short, the Raiders will be awful again this year. Philip Rivers is unproven and I’m not sure what to expect from him but I imagine that he will hand the ball off to Tomlinson for most of the game and let him take care of business on the ground in Oakland, where he rushed for 140 yards last season.
My Pick: LT lifts the Chargers over the Raiders
Saturday, September 09, 2006
Well...this is awkward...
Ok, Ok. So instead of embarrassing the Steelers on Thursday night, the Dolphins have left me more than a little red in the face as I am writing this. I overlooked three very important things when I picked Miami to beat Pittsburgh:
1. Week 1 is always a crapshoot.
2. Every controversial call over the last year or so has gone in the Steelers’ favor. Don’t even get me started on their sham of a Super Bowl win…but I digress.
3. Even though I (obviously) dislike the Steelers, I have to give credit where credit is due: their defense is solid from top to bottom. Their front seven shut down Ronnie Brown and as a result were able to get to Dante Culpepper and force him into costly turnovers in the fourth quarter that decided the game.
While it is just the first game of the season, this game left me with some serious questions about the Dolphins. The ESPN analysts are blaming the loss on Culpepper being rusty, but I think that he is the least of their worries. He played very well in the first half and the beginning of the second half. His struggles late in the game were partly the result of the Steelers’ defensive schemes but also, more importantly, because Pittsburgh was able to shut down Ronnie Brown completely, holding him to 30 yards on 15 carries. Miami needs to get better production out of Brown if they hope to make the playoffs this year. Also, on the other side of the ball, their front seven looked sluggish. Their inability to get to the stone-footed Charlie Batch allowed him to pick their defense apart for three touchdowns. Nick Saban has some major adjustments to make before Week 2, and very few of them involve the player taking the most heat for the loss.
Anyway, it is time for me to move on and discuss the other 30 teams in the league…
Sunday, Sep. 10
Atlanta at Carolina 1:00 p.m.
Word on the street (and on ESPN) is that top receiver Steve Smith will not play on Sunday, leaving the Panthers a bit vulnerable against a bitter Falcons team looking to make up for missing the playoffs last season. But, the game is being played in Carolina. Also, the athletic front line of the Panthers is about as good a counter for Michael Vick’s running game as you will find.
My Pick: Carolina holds off Atlanta
Baltimore at Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m.
So, Baltimore finally solved their QB problems by signing…Steve Mcnair?!? Please. He was washed up two seasons ago. Okay, so he will in all likelihood put up better stats than Kyle Boller, but that’s really not saying very much. The real problem here though is that Baltimore’s defense has slipped quite a bit over the last few seasons. Remember, during their heyday, they won a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer. Basically, this diatribe translates into the Ravens having no chance of beating the Bucs in Tampa on Sunday. Tampa has a solid defense that is at least on par with Baltimore’s and has an emerging offense that could really put things together this season; Chris Simms is coming into his own and he has a pair of talented wide-outs in Galloway and Clayton who are healthy at the same time for the first time in their careers.
My Pick: Tampa in a blowout
SAFE PICK
Buffalo at New England 1:00 p.m.
In recent years (as my Cali buddy Brian is well aware) the number 49 has become synonymous with mediocrity in the NFL. But while the 49ers have been hella bad since Jeff Garcia and T.O. left town, the 49ers are not the first thing that pops into my head when I think of the number 49. That unfortunate distinction belongs to Bills quarterback J.P. Losman who last season completed only 113 of 228 pass attempts for a completion percentage of…49 percent! Losman was simply awful last year, showing no ability to read defenses or complete passes in key situations. The Bills are forced to give him another shot this season since they wasted a first round draft pick on him but I expect them to look elsewhere for quarterbacking services next year…Anyway, to the game. The Patriots’ defense ate Losman alive last year and I expect more of the same in Foxboro on Sunday. If there was ever a week to start the Patriots’ defense in your fantasy league, this is it…
My Pick: (Surprise!) The Patriots
SAFE PICK
Cincinnati at Kansas City 1:00 p.m.
So…thanks to some off-season spending...
Two much improved defenses add up for a defensive struggle?
Not exactly…The reality seems a little closer to this formula:
Two explosive offenses + Two (still) shaky defenses = A shootout in K.C.!
The Bengals’ offense will be a bit better than the Chiefs’, but we must also consider another important variable: The Chiefs are nearly impossible to beat at Arrowhead.
My Pick: Kansas City 41-38 on a last-second TD run by Larry Johnson
Denver at St. Louis 1:00 p.m.
The Broncos are sick of quarterbacks who choke in the postseason…so they drafted Jay Cutler to compete for the starting QB spot. Where does this leave Jake Plummer? Well, when the pressure’s on, Plummer usually combusts and I expect more of the same from him on Sunday in St. Louis. Cutler will be starting before this season is over, mark my words…As for St. Louis, their offensive attack should be pretty formidable this season now that everyone is healthy, and since they are planning to run more and utilize their under-used but very talented RB Steven Jackson.
My Pick: St. Louis
New Orleans at Cleveland 1:00 p.m.
The Saints added quite a bit of offensive talent in the off-season, but Brees and Bush will be no match for Romeo Crennel’s much improved defense at home. I see Bush being held to under 50 yards rushing, and Brees looking a bit rusty as he gets used to his new team and breaks in his surgically repaired shoulder.
My Pick: Cleveland
N.Y. Jets at Tennessee 1:00 p.m.
It doesn’t matter whether they throw Billy Volek or Kerry Collins out there, either way the Titans are going to be offensively challenged. There is no doubt in my mind that Vince Young, for better or worse, will be starting by the end of the season. As for the Jets, as long as they can keep Pennington healthy they will be in the running, despite what the majority of football analysts are saying…
My Pick: Jets win on the road
Philadelphia at Houston 1:00 p.m.
Donovan McNabb is healthy again and has a huge chip on his shoulder after the disappointing debacle that was last season. He also has a new number one target, off-season acquisition Donte Stallworth, who is coming into his own and is poised for a breakout season. Did I mention that the Eagles are facing the Texans who boasted the league’s second worst defense last season?
My Pick: Eagles in a blowout
SAFE PICK
Seattle at Detroit 1:00 p.m.
Maybe if the Lions’ coaches were more concerned with putting together a defensive game plan to stop Shaun Alexander and less concerned with partying and driving around naked then the Lions might have a shot at winning their home opener…but since that’s not the case, I see the reigning MVP picking up right where he left off last season.
My Pick: Seahawks
Chicago at Green Bay 4:15 p.m.
Is Brett Favre washed up? Did the Packers make the right decision in keeping him? Are the Bears a one-year wonder? This game won’t answer any of these questions. The Bears will look good defensively, but just like last season, fail to put things together offensively and Favre will squeeze together just enough points to win.
My Pick: Packers
Dallas at Jacksonville 4:15 p.m.
I’m not sure that either of these teams are as good as their billing. Dallas has the weapons offensively, especially after the acquisition of Terrell Owens, but defensively they are overrated. Jacksonville is really going to miss retired receiver Jimmy Smith and I’m not sure that they have the guys to step up and replace him. I do like the Jaguars’ defense however, and they do play really well at home…
My Pick: Jacksonville
San Francisco at Arizona 4:15 p.m.
The Cardinals could not have asked for a better opening match-up: last season’s top passing attack against the worst passing defense. Expect huge days out of Warner, Boldin, Fitzgerald and newly acquired RB Edgerrin James.
My Pick: Cardinals in a laugher
SAFE PICK
Indianapolis at N.Y. Giants 8:15 p.m
I am really sick of all of the hype surrounding this game. Let’s face it: Peyton is a much better passer than Eli at this point in their careers, and the only chance the Giants have of winning is if his superior supporting cast (Tiki Barber, Michael Strahan etc.) step up and play well. I see Eli struggling to handle the media pressure surrounding this game and turning the ball over early and often.
My Pick: Colts
That’s it for now…Stay tuned for my Monday Night Doubleheader Picks after my triumphant return to Middlebury…
1. Week 1 is always a crapshoot.
2. Every controversial call over the last year or so has gone in the Steelers’ favor. Don’t even get me started on their sham of a Super Bowl win…but I digress.
3. Even though I (obviously) dislike the Steelers, I have to give credit where credit is due: their defense is solid from top to bottom. Their front seven shut down Ronnie Brown and as a result were able to get to Dante Culpepper and force him into costly turnovers in the fourth quarter that decided the game.
While it is just the first game of the season, this game left me with some serious questions about the Dolphins. The ESPN analysts are blaming the loss on Culpepper being rusty, but I think that he is the least of their worries. He played very well in the first half and the beginning of the second half. His struggles late in the game were partly the result of the Steelers’ defensive schemes but also, more importantly, because Pittsburgh was able to shut down Ronnie Brown completely, holding him to 30 yards on 15 carries. Miami needs to get better production out of Brown if they hope to make the playoffs this year. Also, on the other side of the ball, their front seven looked sluggish. Their inability to get to the stone-footed Charlie Batch allowed him to pick their defense apart for three touchdowns. Nick Saban has some major adjustments to make before Week 2, and very few of them involve the player taking the most heat for the loss.
Anyway, it is time for me to move on and discuss the other 30 teams in the league…
Sunday, Sep. 10
Atlanta at Carolina 1:00 p.m.
Word on the street (and on ESPN) is that top receiver Steve Smith will not play on Sunday, leaving the Panthers a bit vulnerable against a bitter Falcons team looking to make up for missing the playoffs last season. But, the game is being played in Carolina. Also, the athletic front line of the Panthers is about as good a counter for Michael Vick’s running game as you will find.
My Pick: Carolina holds off Atlanta
Baltimore at Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m.
So, Baltimore finally solved their QB problems by signing…Steve Mcnair?!? Please. He was washed up two seasons ago. Okay, so he will in all likelihood put up better stats than Kyle Boller, but that’s really not saying very much. The real problem here though is that Baltimore’s defense has slipped quite a bit over the last few seasons. Remember, during their heyday, they won a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer. Basically, this diatribe translates into the Ravens having no chance of beating the Bucs in Tampa on Sunday. Tampa has a solid defense that is at least on par with Baltimore’s and has an emerging offense that could really put things together this season; Chris Simms is coming into his own and he has a pair of talented wide-outs in Galloway and Clayton who are healthy at the same time for the first time in their careers.
My Pick: Tampa in a blowout
SAFE PICK
Buffalo at New England 1:00 p.m.
In recent years (as my Cali buddy Brian is well aware) the number 49 has become synonymous with mediocrity in the NFL. But while the 49ers have been hella bad since Jeff Garcia and T.O. left town, the 49ers are not the first thing that pops into my head when I think of the number 49. That unfortunate distinction belongs to Bills quarterback J.P. Losman who last season completed only 113 of 228 pass attempts for a completion percentage of…49 percent! Losman was simply awful last year, showing no ability to read defenses or complete passes in key situations. The Bills are forced to give him another shot this season since they wasted a first round draft pick on him but I expect them to look elsewhere for quarterbacking services next year…Anyway, to the game. The Patriots’ defense ate Losman alive last year and I expect more of the same in Foxboro on Sunday. If there was ever a week to start the Patriots’ defense in your fantasy league, this is it…
My Pick: (Surprise!) The Patriots
SAFE PICK
Cincinnati at Kansas City 1:00 p.m.
So…thanks to some off-season spending...
Two much improved defenses add up for a defensive struggle?
Not exactly…The reality seems a little closer to this formula:
Two explosive offenses + Two (still) shaky defenses = A shootout in K.C.!
The Bengals’ offense will be a bit better than the Chiefs’, but we must also consider another important variable: The Chiefs are nearly impossible to beat at Arrowhead.
My Pick: Kansas City 41-38 on a last-second TD run by Larry Johnson
Denver at St. Louis 1:00 p.m.
The Broncos are sick of quarterbacks who choke in the postseason…so they drafted Jay Cutler to compete for the starting QB spot. Where does this leave Jake Plummer? Well, when the pressure’s on, Plummer usually combusts and I expect more of the same from him on Sunday in St. Louis. Cutler will be starting before this season is over, mark my words…As for St. Louis, their offensive attack should be pretty formidable this season now that everyone is healthy, and since they are planning to run more and utilize their under-used but very talented RB Steven Jackson.
My Pick: St. Louis
New Orleans at Cleveland 1:00 p.m.
The Saints added quite a bit of offensive talent in the off-season, but Brees and Bush will be no match for Romeo Crennel’s much improved defense at home. I see Bush being held to under 50 yards rushing, and Brees looking a bit rusty as he gets used to his new team and breaks in his surgically repaired shoulder.
My Pick: Cleveland
N.Y. Jets at Tennessee 1:00 p.m.
It doesn’t matter whether they throw Billy Volek or Kerry Collins out there, either way the Titans are going to be offensively challenged. There is no doubt in my mind that Vince Young, for better or worse, will be starting by the end of the season. As for the Jets, as long as they can keep Pennington healthy they will be in the running, despite what the majority of football analysts are saying…
My Pick: Jets win on the road
Philadelphia at Houston 1:00 p.m.
Donovan McNabb is healthy again and has a huge chip on his shoulder after the disappointing debacle that was last season. He also has a new number one target, off-season acquisition Donte Stallworth, who is coming into his own and is poised for a breakout season. Did I mention that the Eagles are facing the Texans who boasted the league’s second worst defense last season?
My Pick: Eagles in a blowout
SAFE PICK
Seattle at Detroit 1:00 p.m.
Maybe if the Lions’ coaches were more concerned with putting together a defensive game plan to stop Shaun Alexander and less concerned with partying and driving around naked then the Lions might have a shot at winning their home opener…but since that’s not the case, I see the reigning MVP picking up right where he left off last season.
My Pick: Seahawks
Chicago at Green Bay 4:15 p.m.
Is Brett Favre washed up? Did the Packers make the right decision in keeping him? Are the Bears a one-year wonder? This game won’t answer any of these questions. The Bears will look good defensively, but just like last season, fail to put things together offensively and Favre will squeeze together just enough points to win.
My Pick: Packers
Dallas at Jacksonville 4:15 p.m.
I’m not sure that either of these teams are as good as their billing. Dallas has the weapons offensively, especially after the acquisition of Terrell Owens, but defensively they are overrated. Jacksonville is really going to miss retired receiver Jimmy Smith and I’m not sure that they have the guys to step up and replace him. I do like the Jaguars’ defense however, and they do play really well at home…
My Pick: Jacksonville
San Francisco at Arizona 4:15 p.m.
The Cardinals could not have asked for a better opening match-up: last season’s top passing attack against the worst passing defense. Expect huge days out of Warner, Boldin, Fitzgerald and newly acquired RB Edgerrin James.
My Pick: Cardinals in a laugher
SAFE PICK
Indianapolis at N.Y. Giants 8:15 p.m
I am really sick of all of the hype surrounding this game. Let’s face it: Peyton is a much better passer than Eli at this point in their careers, and the only chance the Giants have of winning is if his superior supporting cast (Tiki Barber, Michael Strahan etc.) step up and play well. I see Eli struggling to handle the media pressure surrounding this game and turning the ball over early and often.
My Pick: Colts
That’s it for now…Stay tuned for my Monday Night Doubleheader Picks after my triumphant return to Middlebury…
Thursday, September 07, 2006
Hello...Hello...Hello...Is there anybody in there?
That’s right. After what seems like forever, I have returned to my long-neglected blog…just in time for football season! And you know what that means? This marks the triumphant return of my oft scrutinized but always entertaining pigskin picks. So…without further ado…
Miami at Pittsburgh: 8:30 p.m. (Thursday Night)
Ignore the ESPN talking heads…No Rothelisberger means big problems for Pittsburgh in Week 1. Charlie Batch has about as much mobility as my grandmother. Did I mention that she had both knees replaced? In short, the Dolphins’ sack-hungry front line will eat Batch alive…Luckily for the Steelers, Big Ben should be back in uniform within the next two weeks…
My Pick: Dolphins embarrass the Super Bowl Champs at home
(Check back soon for the rest of this week’s picks…)
Miami at Pittsburgh: 8:30 p.m. (Thursday Night)
Ignore the ESPN talking heads…No Rothelisberger means big problems for Pittsburgh in Week 1. Charlie Batch has about as much mobility as my grandmother. Did I mention that she had both knees replaced? In short, the Dolphins’ sack-hungry front line will eat Batch alive…Luckily for the Steelers, Big Ben should be back in uniform within the next two weeks…
My Pick: Dolphins embarrass the Super Bowl Champs at home
(Check back soon for the rest of this week’s picks…)
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