Ok, Ok. So instead of embarrassing the Steelers on Thursday night, the Dolphins have left me more than a little red in the face as I am writing this. I overlooked three very important things when I picked Miami to beat Pittsburgh:
1. Week 1 is always a crapshoot.
2. Every controversial call over the last year or so has gone in the Steelers’ favor. Don’t even get me started on their sham of a Super Bowl win…but I digress.
3. Even though I (obviously) dislike the Steelers, I have to give credit where credit is due: their defense is solid from top to bottom. Their front seven shut down Ronnie Brown and as a result were able to get to Dante Culpepper and force him into costly turnovers in the fourth quarter that decided the game.
While it is just the first game of the season, this game left me with some serious questions about the Dolphins. The ESPN analysts are blaming the loss on Culpepper being rusty, but I think that he is the least of their worries. He played very well in the first half and the beginning of the second half. His struggles late in the game were partly the result of the Steelers’ defensive schemes but also, more importantly, because Pittsburgh was able to shut down Ronnie Brown completely, holding him to 30 yards on 15 carries. Miami needs to get better production out of Brown if they hope to make the playoffs this year. Also, on the other side of the ball, their front seven looked sluggish. Their inability to get to the stone-footed Charlie Batch allowed him to pick their defense apart for three touchdowns. Nick Saban has some major adjustments to make before Week 2, and very few of them involve the player taking the most heat for the loss.
Anyway, it is time for me to move on and discuss the other 30 teams in the league…
Sunday, Sep. 10
Atlanta at Carolina 1:00 p.m.
Word on the street (and on ESPN) is that top receiver Steve Smith will not play on Sunday, leaving the Panthers a bit vulnerable against a bitter Falcons team looking to make up for missing the playoffs last season. But, the game is being played in Carolina. Also, the athletic front line of the Panthers is about as good a counter for Michael Vick’s running game as you will find.
My Pick: Carolina holds off Atlanta
Baltimore at Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m.
So, Baltimore finally solved their QB problems by signing…Steve Mcnair?!? Please. He was washed up two seasons ago. Okay, so he will in all likelihood put up better stats than Kyle Boller, but that’s really not saying very much. The real problem here though is that Baltimore’s defense has slipped quite a bit over the last few seasons. Remember, during their heyday, they won a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer. Basically, this diatribe translates into the Ravens having no chance of beating the Bucs in Tampa on Sunday. Tampa has a solid defense that is at least on par with Baltimore’s and has an emerging offense that could really put things together this season; Chris Simms is coming into his own and he has a pair of talented wide-outs in Galloway and Clayton who are healthy at the same time for the first time in their careers.
My Pick: Tampa in a blowout
SAFE PICK
Buffalo at New England 1:00 p.m.
In recent years (as my Cali buddy Brian is well aware) the number 49 has become synonymous with mediocrity in the NFL. But while the 49ers have been hella bad since Jeff Garcia and T.O. left town, the 49ers are not the first thing that pops into my head when I think of the number 49. That unfortunate distinction belongs to Bills quarterback J.P. Losman who last season completed only 113 of 228 pass attempts for a completion percentage of…49 percent! Losman was simply awful last year, showing no ability to read defenses or complete passes in key situations. The Bills are forced to give him another shot this season since they wasted a first round draft pick on him but I expect them to look elsewhere for quarterbacking services next year…Anyway, to the game. The Patriots’ defense ate Losman alive last year and I expect more of the same in Foxboro on Sunday. If there was ever a week to start the Patriots’ defense in your fantasy league, this is it…
My Pick: (Surprise!) The Patriots
SAFE PICK
Cincinnati at Kansas City 1:00 p.m.
So…thanks to some off-season spending...
Two much improved defenses add up for a defensive struggle?
Not exactly…The reality seems a little closer to this formula:
Two explosive offenses + Two (still) shaky defenses = A shootout in K.C.!
The Bengals’ offense will be a bit better than the Chiefs’, but we must also consider another important variable: The Chiefs are nearly impossible to beat at Arrowhead.
My Pick: Kansas City 41-38 on a last-second TD run by Larry Johnson
Denver at St. Louis 1:00 p.m.
The Broncos are sick of quarterbacks who choke in the postseason…so they drafted Jay Cutler to compete for the starting QB spot. Where does this leave Jake Plummer? Well, when the pressure’s on, Plummer usually combusts and I expect more of the same from him on Sunday in St. Louis. Cutler will be starting before this season is over, mark my words…As for St. Louis, their offensive attack should be pretty formidable this season now that everyone is healthy, and since they are planning to run more and utilize their under-used but very talented RB Steven Jackson.
My Pick: St. Louis
New Orleans at Cleveland 1:00 p.m.
The Saints added quite a bit of offensive talent in the off-season, but Brees and Bush will be no match for Romeo Crennel’s much improved defense at home. I see Bush being held to under 50 yards rushing, and Brees looking a bit rusty as he gets used to his new team and breaks in his surgically repaired shoulder.
My Pick: Cleveland
N.Y. Jets at Tennessee 1:00 p.m.
It doesn’t matter whether they throw Billy Volek or Kerry Collins out there, either way the Titans are going to be offensively challenged. There is no doubt in my mind that Vince Young, for better or worse, will be starting by the end of the season. As for the Jets, as long as they can keep Pennington healthy they will be in the running, despite what the majority of football analysts are saying…
My Pick: Jets win on the road
Philadelphia at Houston 1:00 p.m.
Donovan McNabb is healthy again and has a huge chip on his shoulder after the disappointing debacle that was last season. He also has a new number one target, off-season acquisition Donte Stallworth, who is coming into his own and is poised for a breakout season. Did I mention that the Eagles are facing the Texans who boasted the league’s second worst defense last season?
My Pick: Eagles in a blowout
SAFE PICK
Seattle at Detroit 1:00 p.m.
Maybe if the Lions’ coaches were more concerned with putting together a defensive game plan to stop Shaun Alexander and less concerned with partying and driving around naked then the Lions might have a shot at winning their home opener…but since that’s not the case, I see the reigning MVP picking up right where he left off last season.
My Pick: Seahawks
Chicago at Green Bay 4:15 p.m.
Is Brett Favre washed up? Did the Packers make the right decision in keeping him? Are the Bears a one-year wonder? This game won’t answer any of these questions. The Bears will look good defensively, but just like last season, fail to put things together offensively and Favre will squeeze together just enough points to win.
My Pick: Packers
Dallas at Jacksonville 4:15 p.m.
I’m not sure that either of these teams are as good as their billing. Dallas has the weapons offensively, especially after the acquisition of Terrell Owens, but defensively they are overrated. Jacksonville is really going to miss retired receiver Jimmy Smith and I’m not sure that they have the guys to step up and replace him. I do like the Jaguars’ defense however, and they do play really well at home…
My Pick: Jacksonville
San Francisco at Arizona 4:15 p.m.
The Cardinals could not have asked for a better opening match-up: last season’s top passing attack against the worst passing defense. Expect huge days out of Warner, Boldin, Fitzgerald and newly acquired RB Edgerrin James.
My Pick: Cardinals in a laugher
SAFE PICK
Indianapolis at N.Y. Giants 8:15 p.m
I am really sick of all of the hype surrounding this game. Let’s face it: Peyton is a much better passer than Eli at this point in their careers, and the only chance the Giants have of winning is if his superior supporting cast (Tiki Barber, Michael Strahan etc.) step up and play well. I see Eli struggling to handle the media pressure surrounding this game and turning the ball over early and often.
My Pick: Colts
That’s it for now…Stay tuned for my Monday Night Doubleheader Picks after my triumphant return to Middlebury…
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2 comments:
okay, butt-hole i read your column. it wasn't bad, but you're gonna be wrong. keep it up though, man i wish i was there to make fun of you. senior year, we're getting a huge-ass tv, and not doing anything but watching football on sundays. deal? good, now i'll go back to eating sushi in japan, and you go back to being a hick and writing bad (not "bad" like poorly written, "bad" like, it's completely wrong and i pray to god no one puts real money on you're suggestions).
Hahahah only one of your safe picks was actually a blow out, all the other games were close, except the Tampa game which was a blow out for the RAVENS!!!
i love making fun of you. i think we tied in pick ems this week, and you are my bitch in regular fantasy football.
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