Here we go again...

Last second choke-fests aside (damn you Tampa defense and Warner!), I thought that the most surprising outcome last week was the Pats’ home loss to the Broncos. Don’t get me wrong: Denver has a talented team. They have a very underrated defense and they (as usual) seem to have a solid running game. They also have a solid receiving corps. My problem with them, which makes it impossible for me to take them seriously, is their quarterback situation. Jake Plummer is, hands down, the worst starting quarterback on any team that has a shot at the playoffs. Therefore, when they are in a match-up against a team like the Pats, which I would consider a toss-up, I find it impossible to pick the Broncos to win. They did win however, and Shannahan exposed an unusual inequality in the Pats’ offense: at this point in the season their running game is much better than their passing game. Denver stacked the line and forced Brady to pass, and it worked really well. It’s not that the Pats don’t have talented receivers; it’s just that, other than Troy Brown, they are inexperienced. I expect them to develop as the season progresses and I think before the year is over, Brady will have just as good chemistry with this group of receivers that he has had in the past with Patten, Branch et al. Look for Doug Gabriel (who I think is just as talented as Deion Branch) to emerge as Brady’s go-to-guy…

Anyway, enough of that. Let’s move on to this week’s games:


Last Week: 10-4
(SAFE PICKS: 6-1)

Season: 30-16
(SAFE PICKS: 15-3)

Arizona (1-2, 0-1 away)
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Atlanta (2-1, 1-0 home)

It’s difficult to place much trust in Kurt Warner right now…he had 5 turnovers last week, including a fumbled snap at the St. Louis 18 yard line that ended the game when Rackers was in position for a chip shot FG that would have won the game for Arizona. On the other hand, I have even less faith in Atlanta’s defense. They looked okay during their first two games, but against New Orleans their rush defense looked, if anything, more porous than last year’s. I expect Edgerrin James to have a big game…did the CBSsportsline.com fantasy analysts (who called this as a tough match-up for James) even watch the Monday night game? I mean…I understand that the Falcons held Carolina and Tampa Bay to low rushing totals, but they also built up big leads against both of those teams so they were forced to throw the ball to try to come back. As for the Atlanta secondary (which has been pretty solid so far), they have a tough match-up against the Cardinals’ superbly talented receiving duo of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, especially with DeAngelo Hall banged up. If Warner didn’t look as shaky as he does right now, I would pick Arizona to get the upset without a second thought, but I really don’t know what to expect out of him on Sunday. If he has a slightly above average game on Sunday and doesn’t turn the ball over, I think that the Cardinals will win. I think that Warner will come through…he knows that if he doesn’t, he may not have the starting job much longer…

My Pick: Cardinals pull off the upset

Minnesota (2-1, 1-0 away)
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Buffalo (1-2, 0-1 home)

The Vikings don’t look like a very talented team on paper, but they have played solid so far this year. Maybe getting rid of Mike Tice was their best off-season move…Childress has done an excellent coaching job with this squad so far. They may end up competing for the last playoff spot in the NFC, and when you have Brad Johnson as your QB and 0 standout receivers, that really says a lot about the coaching staff. I don’t know what to make of Buffalo…McGahee is really emerging as a great back this season, but Losman, while he has shown flashes, is still one of the least reliable quarterbacks in the league. I have a feeling that the Vikings’ contrastingly consistent cornerbacks (Smoot and Winfield) will give him fits on Sunday…

My Pick: Vikings win on the road

Dallas (1-1, 0-1 away)
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Tennessee (0-3, 0-1 home)

Tennessee’s secondary is awful…and so is their pass rush. Regardless of whether or not T.O. plays, I think that the Cowboys will win this game in a blowout. If I were Bill Parcells, I would sit Owens and let his finger heal for another week. They’ll need him next week against the Eagles…

My Pick: Cowboys in a laugher
SAFE PICK

San Francisco (1-2, 0-1 away)
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Kansas City (0-2, 0-1 home)

Kansas City’s rush defense is awful but the ‘9ers won’t really be able to exploit it because Frank Gore is banged up. The Chiefs’ secondary actually looks pretty solid so far, and should be able to hold its own against Alex Smith and Antonio Bryant. The Chiefs won’t really be able to exploit the weak San Francisco secondary with Damon Huard at quarterback, but I expect a huge game out of stud running back Larry Johnson, who has been relatively quiet thus far…

My Pick: Chiefs pick up their first win

Indianapolis (3-0, 1-0 away)
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New York Jets (2-1, 0-1 home)

The Jets have looked pretty solid so far this season, with a healthy Pennington doing an excellent job of moving the chains. I still feel like their defense is a question point though…Can they really be expected to hold down the explosive passing game of the Colts?

My Pick: Colts ride Manning’s arm to a win on the road

New Orleans (3-0, 2-0 away)
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Carolina (1-2, 0-1 home)

I honestly don’t feel like there is much separating these two teams...they are both very talented and very flawed. The Panthers do not have a running game to speak of; the Saints are very inconsistent defensively. So what separates the two in this game, other than it being in Carolina? I feel like there will be a major letdown for the Saints after their emotional win over Atlanta in the Superdome last Sunday. Also, we still don’t really know what to expect out of the Panthers until we see them play with a healthy and rust-free Steve Smith.

My Pick: Carolina moves to 2-0 with Steve Smith in the lineup.

San Diego (2-0, 1-0 away)
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Baltimore (3-0, 1-0 home)

Bill Simmons is really high on the Chargers right now, even going so far as to rank them #1 overall in his power rankings. Maybe they are a great team, but in my mind they haven’t proved anything yet…they played the two worst teams in the league (Oakland and Tennessee) in their first 2 games. I love you Bill, but let’s wait and see how they do against a team that has a chance of making the playoffs before drawing any crazy conclusions…This will be the first time that new QB Philip Rivers will be tested and I expect the cagey, veteran Ravens’ defense to get the better of this match-up.

My Pick: Ravens pull off the (upset?!? What is Vegas thinking?)
SAFE PICK

Miami (1-2, 0-1 away)
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Houston (0-3, 0-2 home)

I cracked up when I read the headline for the analysis of this game on ESPN.com: Running game key for both teams. Right…Let’s be honest. The Dolphins need Culpepper to get back on track because they have the receivers for him throw to. If he can’t throw on the Texans, who have no pass-rush or secondary, then what team can he throw against? If he doesn’t have a good game this week, he might as well call it a career. I tried to defend Culpepper earlier in the season, but to be honest, after seeing him struggle against the defensively challenged Titans last week, I think that we may have a Joey Harrington sighting in Miami soon. The Texans have no running game and no defense…but against the Dolphins I don’t think that’s going to matter. What they do have is what Miami should have: a solid passing game. I expect big days out of David Carr (who leads the NFL in QB rating) and his top two targets, Eric Moulds and Andre Johnson.

My Pick: Houston picks up its first win of the season against the hapless Dolphins

Detroit (0-3, 0-1 away)
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St. Louis (2-1, 1-0 home)

So…who is first to go in Detroit? Mike Martz or Matt Millen? Bets please…

My Pick: St. Louis moves to 3-1
SAFE PICK

New England (2-1, 1-0 away)
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Cincinnati (3-0, 1-0 home)

The Patriots look a little discombobulated at the moment…Denver exposed their passing game last week by loading up to stop the run and Brady was unable to capitalize. I think that the Bengals will take a page out of Shanahan’s book and do the same thing again this week. It may work now, but only inexperience and undeveloped chemistry stand in the way of the Patriots’ passing game returning to its usual high level. I expect it to look a lot better this week and to keep improving from here on out. By the end of the season, the Patriots will be a lot tougher to beat than they are right now. Back to this game…the Pats’ defense is banged up and the Bengals have weapons all over the field…and it’s in Cincinnati. I hate to make SAFE PICKs against my team, but I think this one’s in the bag.

My Pick: Bengals remain undefeated

Cleveland (0-3, 0-1 away)
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Oakland (0-2, 0-1 home)

Cleveland is winless on the year, but I have been impressed so far by the play of Charlie Frye and Braylon Edwards. The Raiders, on the other hand, have done nothing remotely impressive this season. I know they’re the home team here, playing against another winless team, but how can you justify picking the Raiders to win against anyone this year? They are beyond awful. At best, they will win 2 games this year…

My Pick: Browns pick up their first win on the road
SAFE PICK

Jacksonville (2-1, 0-1 away)
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Washington (1-2, 0-1 home)

The Redskins looked awful offensively, and normally I wouldn’t make judgments about a team based on a performance against the Texans, but the Redskins aren’t your normal team. Mark Brunell, as my next-door neighbor (who is a huge ‘skins fan) pointed out, is fueled by confidence. When things are going well, he is excellent, but when things start to go south and his confidence is drained, his game turns sour. I think that Brunell, coming off of his 22 straight completions against Houston, is pretty confident at the moment and that will carry over into this game. Jacksonville should be able to exploit the Redskins’ banged-up secondary and the Jags will probably have another good day running the ball, but something in my gut is telling me that the Redskins will “gut” out this game. It’s going to be a close one…

My Pick: Redskins pull out a close one

Seattle (3-0, 1-0 away)
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Chicago (3-0, 1-0 home)

This looks to be the most intriguing game on the bill this week. Both of these teams have looked impressive this year and look to be the class of the NFC. Chicago has returned its dominating defense of last year but it’s their offense that has turned some heads so far this year. After being abysmal last season, Rex Grossman and Muhsin Muhammad have given Chicago a huge lift in the passing game. Unfortunately, their running game doesn’t look as good as last season as Anthony Thomas has really struggled (averaging only 3 yards per carry so far this year).
The Seahawks, after their acquisition of Deion Branch from the Patriots, now have 4 solid wide-outs. Keep in mind that without Branch they already had the most balanced passing game in the NFC last year. Now they will be even more difficult for opposing secondaries to defend…if they had a healthy Shaun Alexander (last year’s NFL MVP) they would be the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Still, their running game isn’t half bad with Alexander out: Maurice Morris is a very capable runner (4.5 career yards per carry). He should be at least as effective as a gimpy Shaun Alexander has been the last few weeks. Seattle also has a balanced and very underrated defense.
This seems like a tough pick to make, but when I think about the match-ups (Chicago’s offense vs. Seattle’s defense and vice versa) I see Chicago having a more difficult time stopping Seattle’s 4 WR sets than Seattle will have stopping Chicago’s emerging passing game. And even without Alexander, I have to give the Seahawks a huge edge in the running game. Seattle looks hungry right now…they feel that they had the Super Bowl taken away from them last season by the refs and they want another crack at it.

My Pick: Seahawks win the battle of the NFC frontrunners
SAFE PICK

And that’s all she wrote…until my pick for the Monday Night game…