Ah, here it goes...

Yes, I know. I was really wrong about several things last week. But, keep in mind that it was the first week of the season and nobody, not even me, really knows what to expect out of many of these teams. I will take a little time here to apologize for my appalling lack of respect shown towards the Baltimore Ravens’ defense. Yes, they had some trouble last year…but if I had really stopped to think about it I would have realized that this was simply because they were plagued by injuries. Everyone is healthy now and they look damn scary. In an effort to be fair and balanced, I would also like to point out that I was dead-on in my assessment of Broncos’ QB Jake Plummer. Another performance like Sunday’s game and Plummer will be taking a seat on the bench and will be usurped by rookie Jay Cutler, who Shanahan traded up for in the draft. As I said last week, when there’s pressure on Jake the (Garter) Snake he responds poorly…
At any rate, it’s time to move on to this week’s games…

Last Week: 9-7
(Safe Picks: 3-1)
Season: 9-7
(Safe Picks: 3-1)

Tampa Bay (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Atlanta (1-0, 0-0 home)

Ok, so I was really wrong last week about both of these teams…especially Tampa Bay. I picked the Bucs to blow out the Ravens, and made the game one of my SAFE PICKs, which was a pretty impetuous move on my part. As mentioned above, I grossly underestimated the Ravens’ defense. I do expect Jon Gruden to fire his team up this week, and I think that the Bucs will respond. I think they were as surprised as I was by the ferocity of the Ravens’ D, but they will be ready for the Falcons this week. Atlanta looked impressive in their victory over Carolina, but keep in mind that the Panthers were and are still without Steve Smith, the premier wide out in the league. Also, Patrick Kerney and John Abraham are banged up and may not play. I expect that, with more time to sit back in the pocket, Chris Simms will have a lot more success throwing the ball down the field to Galloway and Clayton and Tampa Bay should be able to hold on for the victory.

My Pick: Tampa airs out a victory on the road

Detroit (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Chicago (1-0, 0-0 home)

Chicago’s defense looked stronger than ever at Lambeau Field last week, embarrassing Brett Favre yet again. More importantly, Rex Grossman looked really solid at quarterback and did an excellent job of spreading the ball around and moving the chains. He’ll have a bit of a tougher test against the improved Lions’ defense, but he should be able to help put a few points on the board and the defense will take care of the rest.

My Pick: Bears take care of business at home…
SAFE PICK

Cleveland (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Cincinnati (1-0, 0-0 home)

My mathematical formula for the Bengals/Chiefs game last week could not have been more inaccurate…I predicted a shootout, it was a relatively low scoring game…I said that the Chiefs would win on a last second TD run by Larry Johnson, LJ had one of his worst games in recent memory and the Chiefs lost…Nevertheless, I am going to give the formula pick concept another try:

One high scoring offense + One Superstar QB who has overcome the first game jitters after major knee surgery and is ready to shine + One improved rush defense that held one of the top RBs in the league to 68 yards last week + One pass rush that had 7 sacks last week against a decent offensive line + One team with an average offensive line and a running back that couldn’t even gain 30 yards against the Saints = A HUGE win for the Bengals

My Pick: Bengals (The formula says it all)
SAFE PICK

New Orleans (1-0, 1-0 away)
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Green Bay (0-1, 0-1 home)

The Saints opened the season with a surprising victory in Cleveland and hope to continue their early success against the Packers in Green Bay. I love the young talent of the Saints and I think that they may be an exciting team to watch for a long time. However, I can’t see them winning this game. If Favre has any competitive fire left, he will find a way to propel his team to victory here. If he can’t, he might as well retire and let the rebuilding process begin in Green Bay…because if the Packers can’t beat an average team in their own building in a must-win situation then they aren’t going to make the playoffs, plain and simple.

My Pick: Packers give the Lambeau faithful something to cheer about…for now.

Houston (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Indianapolis (1-0, 0-0 home)

The Houston passing game actually looked pretty good against the Eagles last week. They have a good quarterback in David Carr and excellent wide outs in Andre Johnson and Eric Moulds. Unfortunately, their defense hasn’t shown much improvement so far and their running game has stalled with Dominick Davis’s injury. The acquisition of Gado from the Packers may help them out in the running department, but the Colts’ passing game will be too much for the Texans’ secondary to handle.

My Pick: Colts win at home, but the Texans put some points on the board and keep it interesting

Buffalo (0-1, 0-1 away)
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Miami (0-1, 0-0 home)

Miami’s defense looked a bit shaky against Pittsburgh in Week 1 when they were unable to rush the quarterback or cover the Steelers’ WRs or TEs in the secondary. Their running game was awful as well and Culpepper threw a couple of costly interceptions in the fourth quarter that cost them the game. Still, one game does not a season make. Nick Saban has had three extra days to prepare his troops for this game, and you have to believe that they are going to be a different team come Sunday. The Bills looked pretty good last week for a half, but I can’t see them pulling out a win here on the road. J.P. Losman will make mistakes early and often and I foresee the Dolphins taking advantage of them.

My Pick: Dolphins recover from last week’s debacle and get the win
SAFE PICK

Carolina (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Minnesota (1-0, 0-0 home)

Word on the street (well the CBSsportsline.com street) is that Steve Smith did not practice today which means that it is highly unlikely that he would play on Sunday. As we saw last week, the Panthers just aren’t the same team without him. The Vikings rush defense looks much improved this year and they kept the Redskins’ RBs in check last week; I expect them to give DeShaun Foster a similar treatment. Minnesota’s offensive line looked really solid last week against a pretty good Redskin pass rush, so I expect them to hold their own against the Panthers. The Panthers are reeling right now while the Vikings are high on themselves and are playing at home…

My Pick: Vikings open the season a surprising 2-0 by beating one of last year’s playoff teams for the second straight week

New York Giants (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Philadelphia (1-0, 0-0 home)

I liked what I saw out of both of these teams last week (forget the ‘skins and Cowboys, these two teams are the class of the division) but I was really impressed by the Eagles…They look like they are ready to return to their form of two years ago and have found a new star wide out in Dante Stallworth. Brian Westbrook looks better than ever. McNabb looks like he has a chip on his shoulder after last year’s debacle of a season and he seems determined to prove all of his critics wrong, and I for one wouldn’t bet against him. Granted, they played the Texans, whose secondary resembles that of my intramural team, so they really haven’t proven anything yet. The Giants’ DBs shouldn’t give them much of a test either. This game will give the Eagles’ front line a chance to prove themselves as they face one of the top RBs in the league in Tiki Barber. I think that offensively the G-men will put up some points, but not enough to beat the rejuvenated Eagles on the road.

My Pick: Eagles continue their march towards a 4-0 start

Oakland (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Baltimore (1-0, 0-0 home)

I think that I spent enough time in this post explaining my new stance towards the Ravens’ D…and as I said last week this Raiders team is likely the worst team in the NFL.
Enough said.

My Pick: Ravens hold their second straight opponent to single digit points
SAFE PICK

St. Louis (1-0, 0-0 away)
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San Francisco (0-1, 0-0 home)

The 49ers’ offense looks to be light years ahead of where it was last year. If only their defense could say the same. Kurt Warner picked their secondary apart last week and I expect Marc Bulger to do the same. Look for a big day out of Tory Holt that will overshadow solid performances from Alex Smith and Frank Gore.

My Pick: Rams win a wild one on the road

Arizona (1-0, 0-0 away)
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Seattle (1-0, 0-0 home)

The Seahawks’ offense may be sputtering but the defense looked great last week, holding Detroit to just six points. They should be able to slow down the high-powered offense of the Cardinals a bit. Also, I expect the Seattle offense to get back on track on Sunday. We saw what Frank Gore did against the Cardinals’ front line last week…imagine what Shaun Alexander, last year’s NFL rushing leader and MVP, will do against them this week. I don’t buy into the theory that Alexander is only a product of his offensive line…a good offensive line can make an average back look good but I don’t think that they make a good back great. Alexander is the real deal…he just got of to a slow start in the opener this year just as he did last year. Hutchinson’s departure will not affect him nearly as much as critics seem to think that it will.

My Pick: Alexander runs all over the Cardinals at home
SAFE PICK

Kansas City (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Denver (0-1, 0-0 home)

I feel like I’ve picked on Plummer enough for one week so I’ll lay off of him for a minute (or at least a sentence). I don’t think that the Chiefs’ passing game is going to put up many points with Damon Huard at quarterback. I do think that Larry Johnson will have a good game but he can’t do it all by himself. I think that Mike Shanahan, after what he saw out of Plummer last week, will manage him very careful and have him hand off the ball to one of the Bells whenever possible to exploit the Chiefs’ horrendous run defense. For this week at least, Plummer won’t look too bad. Then again, he won’t look that good either. If the Broncos want to go anywhere in the playoffs this year, they better be ready to replace him with Cutler before too much longer.

My Pick: Broncos feast on the Chiefs’ weak front line

New England (1-0, 0-0 away)
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New York Jets (1-0, 0-0 home)

This game could be a lot closer than many experts seem to think it will be. Chad Pennington looks as good as he has ever looked throwing the ball right now and Laveranues Coles looks healthy and ready to be a reliable receiving threat again. Everyone seems to hate the Jets’ running game but I think that Barlow is a better back than most people think. This is a chance for him to prove himself…if he doesn’t step up than the Patriots will be able to load up to stop the pass. The Jets have a shot at a playoff run if they can find some balance in their offense…and their defense. Dillon and Maroney should have pretty big days on the ground and New England should be able to scrape together a win here…the Jets will keep it close though.

My Pick: Pats hold on for the victory on the road

Tennessee (0-1, 0-0 away)
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San Diego (1-0, 0-0 home)

The Titans might as well throw Vince Young out there and give him some on-field experience…I don’t see how he could be any worse than Billy Volek or Kerry Collins. The Chargers should be able to pick up another win here by again only using their defense and superb running game. They are playing it safe with Philip Rivers so far and not asking him to do too much…it’s worked so far but eventually the kid gloves will have to come off when they finally face a team that has a shot at winning more games than it loses.

My Pick: Tomlinson grinds out another victory for the Chargers
SAFE PICK

Washington (0-1, 0-0 away)
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Dallas (0-1, 0-0 home)

Neither of these teams look like they are as good as advertised…QB Drew Bledsoe imploded last week for the Cowboys, throwing awful pass after awful pass. The ‘skins’ woes worry much more than Dallas’s though. Forget the Clinton Portis injury (he will likely not play this week)—Washington’s real problems stem from the injuries to their secondary. Top CB Shawn Springs is still out and Carlos Rodgers was beaten long way too often last week by Minnesota’s mediocre WRs…and he’s the best healthy corner that they have right now. The speedy Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens should have a field day on Sunday. Bledsoe should get some of the critics off of his back…for now.It'll be pretty difficult to miss receivers that are open by 10 yards...

My Pick: Dallas goes deep for the victory at home
SAFE PICK

That’s it for now. Check back Sunday night for my thoughts on the Monday night game…