Where Have All The Cowboys Gone?

On Monday Night, Peter King’s greatest wish came true and Tony Romo took over at quarterback for Dallas in the second half after Drew Bledsoe’s inconsistent first half ended with an ugly interception in the end zone when Dallas had a chance to take the lead. But the Tony Romo era in Dallas began just as the Bledsoe era ended, with a poorly thrown interception on his first play. Romo followed that up with two more interceptions and as a result of his miscues, the Giants’ offense capitalized, quickly turning a close game into a blowout. Romo certainly has more mobility than Bledsoe but he does not have as strong an arm and has never played in an actual game against a first-team defense before. Parcells felt that he needed to make a change, and in his defense the Cowboys have been pretty mediocre so far, but the Cowboys’ biggest deficiency is their offensive line. If Bledsoe is given time to throw the ball, he can be very effective. The line has not done that this year against any of the teams they’ve played that have solid pass rushes. So, given the line issues, it does seem to make sense to put a quarterback who has the ability to escape the pass rush into the game. But Romo, to me, looks like a glorified Joey Harrington. His ability to escape the pocket and make plays to move the chains are enticing, but his red-zone decision-making leaves a lot to be desired. In other words, the Cowboys are in exactly the same position that they were with Bledsoe, except with less of a threat for going deep to Glenn or Owens. Maybe I’m wrong about Romo, but I’m not even considering picking the Cowboys to win another game until I see him play at least twice as well as he did against the Giants. So far, he has only made their offense worse.

If I sound a little bitter about this game, it’s because, in a week where I only picked 5 games correctly, losing this pick was the curdled frosting on the moldy cake. But that’s neither here nor there…Let’s move on, shall we?

Last Week: 5-8
(SAFE PICKS: 2-4)

Season: 64-36
(SAFE PICKS: 31-10)

San Francisco (2-4, 0-2 away)
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Chicago (6-0, 3-0 home)

While the Bears struggled mightily against their last mediocre opponent from the NFC West (Arizona) in their last game (also at home) and should have lost that game, I can’t see them playing that poorly in consecutive games. They had a bye week to work on their offensive shortcomings in their last game and I expect Grossman to rebound well against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Their defense may not be as solid now with the losses in their secondary, but still solid enough for Chicago to beat the 49ers…

My Pick: The Bears wake up from their hibernation
SAFE PICK

Atlanta (4-2, 1-1 away)
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Cincinnati (4-2, 2-1 home)

Yes, Atlanta’s passing game was excellent last week, but for the second straight home contest, their passing defense was absolutely awful, allowing over 400 passing yards. Playing on the road against a team that has a potentially powerful passing game, and a quarterback who is bound to break out, this could be a recipe for disaster.

My Pick: The Bengals win a shootout

Arizona (1-6, 0-3 away)
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Green Bay (2-4, 0-3 home)

I think it’s safe to say that Arizona has lost all of the confidence that they gained in the first half of their game against the Bears, between their second half meltdown and their loss last Sunday to the lowly and previously winless Raiders. The Packers, on the other hand, are riding high after their shootout win over the Dolphins. Favre looks pretty comfortable throwing the ball and their running game is looking surprisingly solid. They still can’t play defense, but at this point, I’ll take Favre in a shootout…

My Pick: Green Bay finally wins at Lambeau

Houston (2-4, 0-2 away)
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Tennessee (1-5, 0-2 home)

Both the Titans and Texans are bad teams who are improving and could be a factor over the next couple seasons. And both teams looked impressive in their last outings, beating the Redskins and Jaguars respectively. I have no doubt that this will be a close game but I see Andre Johnson being the X-factor. He has had either 100 yards or a touchdown in five of the Texans’ six games. The one game that he didn’t was on the road against the Dallas Cowboys, who have a powerful defensive line and were able to consistently put pressure on Carr. The Titans do not have any pass rush to speak of, so I expect that Carr will find Andre Johnson deep many times during this contest and he will have his best game of the season.

My Pick: Texans win two in a row? Has hell frozen over?

Seattle (4-2, 2-1 away)
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Kansas City (3-3, 2-1 home)

I’m still fuming about Seattle’s game last week…that was a dirty hit on Hasselbeck (which cost the Seahawks the game and me the pick) and the football gods will punish the Vikings for their transgression. The Seahawks have been left in a perilous position now without either of their offensive leaders. I do have a feeling that Shaun Alexander may be making a surprise appearance on Sunday. He is listed as doubtful and Holmgren has said that he doesn’t expect him to play until next week against the Raiders, but he’s returned to practice so his foot must be healed. If he does play, it could really change the complexity of this game…as it stands with him out though, the Seahawks have a mediocre running back and an unproven quarterback (Seneca Wallace) making his first career start. Not a good combination when you’re playing at Arrowhead…but hold on. The latest reports out of Kansas City indicate that Damon Huard injured his hamstring in practice and likely will not play on Sunday. This hands control of the offense over to rookie Brodie Croyle. It also changes this game from being an obvious Chiefs’ win to a toss-up. I’ll still take Kansas City here, given that they have an elite running back (that I know will play) and that the game is in Arrowhead. I would no longer consider this a SAFE PICK though by any means…

My Pick: The Chiefs win a close match-up of unproven quarterbacks

Baltimore (4-2, 2-1 away)
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New Orleans (5-1, 3-0 home)

Yes, I do agree with ESPN.com that Baltimore is “desperate for a win”…but can they put any points on the board against the Saints? Their offense has been awful this year, and the Saints’ D has been really solid at home. Furthermore, their defense looked like it was finally getting worn out from having to play three quarters of the game last week against Carolina. I mean if they could at least establish a running game, maybe they could take some of the pressure off of their past-his-prime quarterback. But that would involve benching the ineffective Jamal Lewis, who Billick is far too loyal to. I just don’t see them picking up the win here in New Orleans…maybe they’ll surprise me but their offense would have to play above themselves for it to happen.

My Pick: The Desperation Factor can only take you so far…Saints move to 6-1

Tampa Bay (2-4, 0-2 away)
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New York Giants (4-2, 1-1 home)

The Giants are playing some damn good football right now, but I am waiting for the other shoe to drop…anyone who’s followed this team over the past two seasons knows that where there’s an overwhelmingly successful run, there’s bound to be a letdown game close behind. I think that the Buccaneers will take advantage of this opportunity to get back in the playoff hunt. Look for Bruce Gradikowski to torch the Giants’ suspect secondary. Methinks Joey Galloway (in following his feast or famine pattern so far this season) will have a monster game after being shut out last week and the Bucs will pull off another upset.

My Pick: Tampa airs out an upset win on the road

Jacksonville (3-3, 0-3 away)
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Philadelphia (4-3, 2-1 home)

After two straight last second losses, there is no way that Donovan McNabb will let his team lose this game at home. The Jaguars offense was ineffective last week against the Texans and their defense was torched deep by David Carr and Andre Johnson and allowed their running game to get it going for the first time all season. In short, they are a mess right now. And I can’t see them getting their first road win of the season here with either a hobbled Leftwich or rusty Garrard at the helm.

My Pick: Eagles win big at home
SAFE PICK

St. Louis (4-2, 2-1 away)
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San Diego (4-2, 2-0 home)

Between the distraction of Merriman’s positive steroid test, the loss of linebacker Shaun Philips (the team’s sack leader) for the next month and the secondary’s lackluster play for much of last week’s game in Kansas City, I am a but worried about San Diego’s defense right now. I’m sure that Rivers will rebound from his mediocre performance last week and play pretty well against an average Rams’ defensive squad, but I’m not convinced that their defense will be able to shut down the Rams’ high-octane offense. Marc Bulger has played consistently well all season, regardless of the opponent, and I don’t expect that to change on Sunday. I expect this to end up being a higher scoring game than most of you expect it to be…I’ll give the Rams the edge since they lost the last shootout they played in and they deserve redemption.

My Pick: The Rams beat the disheveled Chargers

New York Jets (4-3, 2-1 away)
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Cleveland (1-5, 0-3 home)

I made the unfortunate mistake of picking the Browns last week, and they made me pay. I swear I must have been drunk at the time. Looking at this team, the only things they really have going for them are Charlie Frye and Braylon Edwards. That puts them in the same class as a team like the 49ers…capable of beating other bad teams and having a chance to win against average teams, but having no shot in hell against a team with an elite defense that can stop their offense. That means they have a chance this week, but a very slim one. Chad Pennington has played really well against bad teams this year and I expect that to continue. Giving their offense more balance, Leon Washington has really emerged the past few weeks as a solid running threat (20 carries for 129 yards and 2 TDs last week). I expect him to have another big game against an atrocious Browns’ run defense that is allowing over 144 rushing yards a game.

My Pick: Jets keep beating the teams that they should and stay in the playoff hunt

Indianapolis (6-0, 2-0 away)
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Denver (5-1, 3-0 home)

The time has come for Jake Plummer to finally cost the Broncos another game. The defense has played so well this year that they have bailed him out for the most part, but he will have to make some plays if the Broncos are going to win this game. The Colts’ offense is going to put some points on the board and the Broncos will have to too if they want to win this game. The pressure is on Plummer. And as I have said many times before, when the pressure’s on him, he usually implodes. The Jay Cutler era may be close at hand…Shanahan can’t continue to let this guy hold his team back from contending for the Super Bowl.

My Pick: Colts pick up the upset…How is it an upset when they are undefeated?? Gotta love Vegas…
SAFE PICK

Pittsburgh (2-4, 0-3 away)
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Oakland (1-5, 1-2 home)

Well, the Raiders are riding high after their first win of the season and the Steelers just allowed 41 points in a loss to Falcons. Upset city? Uh, not so much…now that the Raiders have picked up a win, I expect them to revert back to their losing ways, regardless of whether or not it is Big Ben or Batch at QB for the Steelers. They were just lucky enough to have caught a Cardinals team that was still reeling from one of the worst collapses in the history of the NFL. I doubt the Raiders win another game all year…

My Pick: Steelers win big in Oakland
SAFE PICK

Dallas (3-3, 1-2 away)
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Carolina (4-3, 2-1 home)

Tony Romo’s first NFL start should be a pretty ugly one. He is facing one of the most ferocious front lines in the game and I expect Julius Peppers and co. to make it a long day for him. And while Dallas’s front line is pretty solid as well, their secondary is a bit suspect. I think that Delhomme and Steve Smith will continue to have success deep and the Panthers will blow out Dallas.

My Pick: Romo moves to 0-2 as the Cowboys’ starter
SAFE PICK

Here’s to hoping that this week treats me better than the last one did…
Check back on Sunday for my Monday Night pick…