Hopefully this isn't the beer talking...

Sorry about the lateness and brevity of this post…drunken debauchery intervened last night and I am now scrambling to get this out before nightfall…

Last Week: 10-4
(SAFE PICKS: 4-2)

Season: 40-20
(SAFE PICKS: 19-5)

Buffalo (2-2, 1-1 away)
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Chicago (4-0, 2-0 home)

While the Bills’ defense has looked pretty good this year (although they are only 8th overall in the AFC), their passing game is still their Achilles’ heel. J.P. Losman has put up better numbers this year but they are still not putting points on the board and he is still making mistakes at inopportune times. The Bears’ defense made Matt Hasselbeck look like J.P. Losman last week; what will they make J.P Losman look like this week? I shudder at the thought…

My Pick: Bears win another blowout at home
SAFE PICK

St. Louis (3-1, 1-1 away)
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Green Bay (1-3, 0-2 home)

This game should be a shootout…I really don’t trust either defense (they are ranked 10th and last in the NFC respectively) and both teams have pretty good passing games. Favre should have a big game…if he doesn’t, there are no excuses. The Rams don’t have a great pass rush and he has probably the most talented group of receivers that he has ever had (Driver, Jennings, Ferguson and Robinson). The Packers have a lot of holes, but they should be able to put up points at will against mediocre defenses…That’s not to say that the Rams won’t score a lot here too because they will. But come on, if Favre has anything left, he’ll pull this one out…

My Pick: Packers win as Favre has a huge day passing the ball

Tennessee (0-4, 0-2 away)
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Indianapolis (4-0, 2-0 home)

Let’s see…The Titans have a rookie quarterback starting, no running game and a defense that can’t stop the run or the pass (unless it’s coming out of the hands of Daunte Culpepper). This could get ugly…

My Pick: Colts Win BIG
SAFE PICK

Detroit (0-4, 0-2 away)
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Minnesota (2-2, 1-1 home)

The Lions are still looking for its first win…they better keep looking. The Vikings’ defense has been solid all year and I don’t expect them to crack against a very ordinary Lions’ offense that has looked better than it actually is during the past couple weeks. Maybe Brad Johnson will finally get things going too?

My Pick: Vikings win at home

Miami (1-3, 0-2 away)
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New England (3-1, 1-1 home)

Given my recent history with applying the SAFE PICK tag to games involving New England, it would seem logical for me to avoid using it here. Not a chance! Daunte Culpepper has struggled avoiding the anemic pass rushes and reading the poor coverage schemes of Texans and Titans the last two weeks…He is going to have a very long day against a team that disguises its blitzes and coverage schemes better than anyone else in the league. There is an off-chance that Culpepper will sit to rest a “bruised shoulder” but personally I think that this is a ploy and Saban is looking for an opportunity to try out Joey Harrington to see if he can do any better with this offense than Culpepper has so far. So much for contending for a Super Bowl…

My Pick: Patriots win big at home
SAFE PICK

Tampa Bay (0-3, 0-1 away)
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New Orleans (3-1, 1-0 home)

Taking over an 0-3 team is an arduous enough task for a rookie quarterback…compound that with an ineffective offensive line, a stagnant running game and a road game against a team that excells in all of these areas and has as a solid pass defense and you are in for an ugly outcome, not to mention a really really ridiculously long sentence…

My Pick: Saints win big at home
SAFE PICK

Washington (2-2, 1-1 away)
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New York Giants (1-2, 0-1 home)

All bets are off in this game…The Redskins’ secondary is still depleted and banged-up so Eli Manning should have a good day passing the ball; on the other hand, the Giants’ secondary is awful so I expect huge games from Brunell and Santana Moss. Barber and Portis, being the premier backs that they are, will likely both end up with over 100 yards rushing as well. This is going to be a wild one…I'll take the 'skins, just because they look like they are hitting their stride offensively.

My Pick: Redskins win a shootout on the road

Cleveland (1-3, 1-1 away)
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Carolina (2-2, 1-1 home)

The Panthers’ offense looks to be rounding back into form now that Steve Smith is back, but I’m still not sold on their defense. Their secondary looks much shakier than it was last year and as far as I know there are no injuries to blame for this. I think that, if the Browns’ offensive line can give Frye some time in the pocket, he will find Braylon Edwards open deep. Of course, the Panthers’ front line are still pretty damn tough to block…

My Pick: Panthers but they better get a good performance out of Peppers and co. or the Browns will make it interesting...

Kansas City (1-2, 0-1 away)
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Arizona (1-3, 1-1 home)

This is a surprisingly bad match-up for Matt Leinart in his first NFL start…While the Chiefs’ once spectacular offense has sputtered, their defense has really taken off. Their passing defense is ranked second in the AFC and as such, I can’t see Leinart having much success here. The Cardinals will need to get a good game out of James in order for them to have a shot at winning…even then, I can’t see them slowing down Larry Johnson. I’ll take the Chiefs here…

My Pick: Kansas City wins on the road

Oakland (0-3, 0-1 away)
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San Francisco (1-3, 1-1 home)

While both of these teams are bad, one is in a class of its own. While neither team has any discernible talent on defense, other than a disgruntled wide receiver who wants to be traded, Oakland has no discernible talent on offense either. The 49ers are at least headed in the right direction…they have a talented young quarterback in Alex Smith, a solid receiving threat in Antonio Bryant and an emerging running back in Frank Gore. Plus, they are playing at home. That should be more than enough to propel them to victory here…

My Pick: 49ers beat the hapless Raiders
SAFE PICK

New York Jets (2-2, 2-0 away)
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Jacksonville (2-2, 2-0 home)

The Jets are 2-0 on the road; the Jags are 2-0 at home…something’s got to give. Pennington has been very successful this year throwing the ball and I think that Crotchery and Coles are solid receivers. They should be able to pick up some yards against Jacksonville’s secondary which has looked a bit leaky the past couple weeks. The Jets’ problem is on the other side of the ball. They rank 12th in the AFC in rushing defense, allowing just over 140 rushing yards per contest. They will have a tough time containing Maurice Drew-Jones and Fred Taylor who have looked great the last couple weeks.

My Pick: Jags run all over the Jets

Dallas (2-1, 1-1 away)
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Philadelphia (3-1, 1-1 home)

This is, of course, the marquee match-up this week. Owens and McNabb face each other for the first time since they parted ways so inharmoniously last season. Now, I am pretty sure that if McNabb had all, or most, of his weapons at his disposal, the Eagles would win this game. But, Brian Westbrook may miss the game and even if he plays, will be slowed by his knee injury. Donte Stallworth won’t be playing because of a lingering hamstring injury. Reggie Brown, the number two receiver, is listed on the injury list as questionable with a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, all of the Cowboys’ players, T.O. included, are healthy and pumped up for this game. Can McNabb win this game by himself on offense? I’d like to see it happen but I can’t imagine that he will be able to match the offensive production of Bledsoe, Glenn, Owens, Witten and Julius Jones when his only viable option is L.J. Smith, his tight end.

My Pick: Cowboys win Round One of T.O/McNabb (but won’t have the last laugh)

Pittsburgh (1-2, 0-1 away)
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San Diego (2-1, 1-0 home)

I initially was tempted to pick the upset here, but it really doesn’t make any sense. Rothelisberger has been awful throwing the ball so far this year and the Chargers, with their number one ranked pass defense, are hardly the team you would expect him to get back on track against. Still, there’s always a chance that Schottenheimer will blow a close game with a stupid move, which is why this isn’t a SAFE PICK…

My Pick: Chargers prove to be a poor antidote for Big Ben’s rusty gears

That’s all for now…I’ll be back tomorrow with my Monday Night pick…