Merry Christmas!

I’m dreaming of a white Christmas…sadly, that dream may not be realized. I can, however, console myself with some enticing Christmas Eve and Christmas day football match-ups…

Last Week: 8-8
(SAFE PICKS: 2-1)

Season: 128-96
(SAFE PICKS: 54-32)


Carolina (6-8, 2-4 away)
at
Atlanta (7-7, 3-4 home)

The Panthers look like a team that has given up. The Falcons may be inconsistent and prone to giving up big plays in the passing game but they will have more energy and desire than their opponents, who will likely be thinking ahead to spending Christmas time with their families.

My Pick: Falcons move above .500 and put themselves in position for a playoff berth
SAFE PICK

Tampa Bay (3-11, 0-7 away)
at
Cleveland (4-10, 2-5 home)

Tim Rattay has a much stronger arm than Bruce Gradikowski and he is just as accurate. Jon Gruden should have made this switch a long time ago because Rattay is the quarterback that can best utilize the Bucs’ speedy receivers. Tampa Bay isn’t very good, but they’re not bad enough to go 0-8 on the road and the team has to win a game in sub-freezing temperatures eventually. All streaks, good and bad, must come to an end, and Cleveland doesn’t have the kind of running game that is needed to dominate in wintry conditions. Therefore, I will take the team with the hot offense...

My Pick: Rattay and Galloway lift Tampa Bay to victory on the road

Washington (5-9, 2-5 away)
at
St. Louis (6-8, 3-4 home)

The Redskins, especially Ladell Betts and their front defensive line, have played well lately, but the Rams have desperation on their side. They are still alive in the playoff race and will not let the ‘skins stand in their way.

My Pick: Rams win at home
SAFE PICK

Baltimore (11-3, 5-2 away)
at
Pittsburgh (7-7, 5-2 home)

The Steelers are still alive in the playoff race, and honestly, if they win their next two games, have a real shot at stealing the last wildcard spot. They will be excited for another shot at a team that embarrassed them the last time around.

My Pick: Steelers defeat the Ravens at home
SAFE PICK

Indianapolis (11-3, 4-3 away)
at
Houston (4-10, 2-4 home)

This one will be closer than you think…but the Colts won’t let home-field advantage slip away from them.

My Pick: Colts hang on to win on the road

Cincinnati (8-6, 4-3 away)
at
Denver (8-6, 3-3 home)

Jay Cutler looked really good last week. The Broncos certainly made the right decision when they made the switch from Plummer to Cutler. That being said, I still like the Bengals here. I know they laid an egg last week against the Colts, but their offense can score anytime they want against any defense when they are playing well. Denver’s defense has been pretty shaky during the second half of the season and although they have looked better the last few weeks, they can’t shut down all of Cincy’s playmakers. Of course, the Bengals’ defense is even worse, so expect this one to be a shootout…

My Pick: Bengals win a wild one on the road

Tennessee (7-7, 3-4 away)
at
Buffalo (7-7, 4-3 home)

I really want to apply my “wintry weather” theory from yesteryear, but none of these games seem to lend themselves to it. Tennessee’s offense is built around the run and they find a way to grind out games. Buffalo’s offense has actually shifted more towards the passing game with Losman picking up his game the last few weeks and developing a rapport with receiver Lee Evans. This one’s a toss-up but I’ll take Vince Young and the Titans, who don’t know how to lose right now, against the Bills, who can’t stop the run.

My Pick: Travis Henry and Young run all over the Bills

Chicago (12-2, 6-1 away)
at
Detroit (2-12, 2-5 home)

Chicago has everything sewn up and their defense played shoddily last week. This is an upset waiting to happen.

My Pick: Lions knock off the Bears at home

New Orleans (9-5, 5-2 away)
at
New York Giants (7-7, 3-4 home)

The Giants are way too inconsistent and make far too many mistakes to be a playoff team, regardless of how talented they are. The Saints are still fighting for a first-round bye and will be motivated to reassert themselves after an embarrassing loss at Washington last week. Look for a huge day from Drew Brees and the Saints offense. The Giants will keep it close for a while, but will fall apart in the fourth quarter.

My Pick: Saints maim Giants’ playoff chances

New England (10-4, 5-1 away)
at
Jacksonville (8-6, 6-1 home)

The Jaguars are in desperate need of a victory but their inconsistency will do them in. Their running game is superb but quarterback David Garrard makes far too many mistakes for this team to make the playoffs. Their defense plays really well at times, but at others, looks ordinary. The Patriots generate a lot of turnovers and should be able to score enough points to defeat the Jaguars.

My Pick: Pats end the Jags’ playoff dreams

Arizona (4-10, 1-5 away)
San Francisco (6-8, 4-3 home)

Frank Gore is a great running back, one of if not the best back in the NFC. The problem with the ‘9ers though is that Alex Smith doesn’t generate quite enough offense through the air. This team doesn’t have a go-to receiver and this is something that the team needs to address during the off-season. I predict that Matt Leinart and the Cardinals’ explosive passing game will go up early and the ‘9ers will struggle to come back.

My Pick: The ‘9ers go the way of Gore’s presidency

San Diego (12-2, 5-2 away)
at
Seattle (8-6, 5-2 home)

Seattle is far too talented to be struggling like they are right now. They will break out of it and I think it will happen during this game. This offense, when it gets things together, has the ability to score on anyone. The Chargers are bound to have a letdown game eventually, even though the race for the top seed is still on, and I think that this might be the game where they are outplayed by a team that, on paper, they should beat. Can Seattle really lose three games at home this year after their dominating home-field edge a year ago? Not if Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck have any say in it.

My Pick: The Seahawks start playing like they should and the Chargers can’t match their intensity

And the Christmas Day games:

Philadelphia (8-6, 4-3 away)
at
Dallas (9-5, 4-2 home)

The NFC East title is still up for grabs and the Eagles have played really well under Jeff Garcia. I think they have been playing a bit over their heads though. The Cowboys have the better team and it will show on Monday. Their punishing running attack (led by Marion Barber) will punish the Eagles’ weak run defense and Romo will make enough plays through the air to offset Jeff Garcia. I still think that the Eagles could grab a wildcard spot but the division title will belong to the Cowboys.

My Pick: Cowboys secure the division title

New York Jets (8-6, 5-2 away)
at
Miami (6-8, 4-3 home)

The Jets have the Dolphins’ number and they need this win to stay on track for a playoff berth. Miami will keep it close for most of the game but Pennington and the Jets will take control in the fourth quarter and cruise to victory.

My Pick: Jets stay in position for a wildcard berth

And that’s all she wrote…
Merry Christmas everyone!!!