Sunday? How the hell is it already Sunday?

I’m running a little low on time here as I woke up at Noon…Let’s save the formalities and get to the picks…

Last Week: 8-8
(SAFE PICKS: 1-4)

Season: 120-88
(SAFE PICKS: 52-31)

Miami (6-7, 2-4 away)
at
Buffalo (6-7, 3-3 home)

Both teams have been hot but I will take the team with the more dominant defense, Miami, to shut down Buffalo’s offense and win this game on the road.

My Pick: Miami moves to .500 on the season

Tampa Bay (3-10, 0-6 away)
at
Chicago (11-2, 5-1 home)

Chicago has shown this season that they are capable of winning or losing against any team in the National Football League. That being said, Grossman looked solid last week and he is facing, at home, one of the worst pass defenses in the league. I’ll take Chicago in a blowout.

My Pick: Bears win big and Grossman’s critics quiet down (for now)
SAFE PICK

Detroit (2-11, 0-6 away)
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Green Bay (5-8, 1-5 home)

Ok, so the Lions haven’t won in Green Bay in their last gazillion games there. Do you really trust the Packers, who are just 1-5 at home this season, to continue this streak? I don’t…but I trust them more than I trust the Lions, 0-6 on the road this season, to win. And I’d like to see Favre finish off the season strong…we’ll see what happens…

My Pick: Packers find a way to finally win a home game

Jacksonville (8-5, 2-4 away)
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Tennessee (6-7, 3-3 home)

The Titans have been playing some great football lately but I think that the Jaguars have a great match-up here. Jacksonville boasts the best running game in the AFC and the Titans are 28th in the league in run defense. Assuming that Jacksonville’s pass defense doesn’t pull another Mr. Hyde, the Jaguars should be able to take a short road trip and win, keeping themselves in the driver’s seat for a playoff berth.

My Pick: Jaguars run their way to victory in Tennessee

New York Jets (7-6, 4-2 away)
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Minnesota (6-7, 3-3 home)

Interestingly, although the Vikings have the worse record, they have the better shot at making the playoffs at this point. The Jets have to compete with the red-hot Bengals and the dangerous Jaguars, who decimated Indianapolis last week. The Vikings are battling a bunch of teams with similar records that are similarly flawed. That being said, the Jets are, without a doubt, the better team. They have a solid quarterback, solid receivers and a similarly talented defense. The Vikings have a good running game and a good defense but their passing game leaves a lot to be desired. If they fall behind, it will be difficult to come back. If they can keep it close, anything’s possible.

My Pick: Jets keep their playoff hopes alive by beating the Vikings

Houston (4-9, 2-5 away)
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New England (9-4, 4-3 home)

After being embarrassed by the Dolphins last week in a shutout loss, the Patriots are going to be out for blood. I’d hate to be in the Texans’ shoes right now…they are in for a long day on Sunday…

My Pick: Patriots blow out the Texans
SAFE PICK

Washington (4-9, 1-5 away)
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New Orleans (9-4, 4-2 home)

Are the Saints the sentimental favorite to win the NFC or are they actually the best team? After they went into Dallas and feasted on the Cowboys’ defense last week, I may have to go with the latter. I was thoroughly impressed. And, this team seems to be peaking at the right time, three weeks from the start of the playoffs. Oh, so you want to know if they will beat Washington and their abysmal pass defense at home this week? The word “duh” comes to mind…

My Pick: Saints improve to 5-2 at home
SAFE PICK

Pittsburgh (6-7, 1-5 away)
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Carolina (6-7, 4-3 home)

Last year’s Super Bowl champs against SI’s NFC pick to reach the Super Bowl this season…my, how the mighty have fallen. The difference between these two teams is that Carolina still has a shot at the playoffs while the Steelers assuredly do not. Will that be enough to propel the Panthers to victory? Well, the Steelers’ secondary has looked pretty bad this year and backup QB Chris Weinke threw for 423 yards last week. If he can cut down on the turnovers, I think that Carolina can pull this one out. Weinke does a much better job of spreading the ball around than Delhomme, who tends to key in on Steve Smith and stubbornly throws into triple coverage.

My Pick: Panthers pounce on the Steelers and get the win

Cleveland (4-9, 2-4 away)
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Baltimore (10-3, 5-1 home)

This looks like an easy pick, but the Ravens aren’t nearly as good as their record. Cleveland, if they can put some offense together, could keep this close if the Ravens struggle offensively early on, as they have much of this season.

My Pick: Ravens pull it out in the 4th quarter

Denver (7-6, 4-3 away)
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Arizona (4-9, 3-4 home)

Was switching QBs a symbolic white flag for the Broncos? I don’t think so, because I truly think that Cutler gives them the best chance to win. Their problem is their defense, which has fallen apart over the last month. I think Cutler can generate 21-28 points of offense this week against an average Cardinals’ defense. Will the defense be able to hold the Cardinals to fewer points than that?

My Pick: Cutler gets his first win with the Broncos

St. Louis (5-8, 2-4 away)
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Oakland (2-11, 2-4 home)

The Rams are still (sadly) alive in the playoff race and they won’t let the hapless Raiders stand in their way.

My Pick: Rams keep their slim playoff hopes alive

Philadelphia (7-6, 3-3 away)
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New York Giants (7-6, 3-3 home)

The Eagles can’t stop the run and I can guarantee that the Giants are going to take the ball out of Eli Manning’s hands and have Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs stuff it down the Eagles’ throats. Can a revived Jeff Garcia put together enough of a passing game to beat the Giants? It will be close but I’ll take the home team here.

My Pick: Giants move to 8-6 and put themselves in good position to make the playoffs

Kansas City (7-6, 2-4 away)
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San Diego (11-2, 6-0 home)

The Chiefs are reeling right now and the Chargers are rolling. And, with the best record in the AFC still up for grabs, you wouldn’t expect a letdown here…or would you? Tomlinson just broke the season TD record, the division title is sewn up and the Chiefs are going to have desperation on their side. Do you really expect Trent Green, Larry Johnson and co. to go down quietly? I don’t…

My Pick: Chiefs shock the Chargers on the road

Whew. That’s it for now. Check back later for the Monday night pick…