More Beatles, Less Mott the Hoople...

I’m convinced that last week wasn’t a fluke. I am back on the winning side of things and I fully intend on staying there. I’m already off to a 1-0 start and I feel great about the rest of my picks. So, without further ado…

Last Week: 10-6
(SAFE PICKS: 5-3)

Season: 99-77
(SAFE PICKS: 47-26)

San Diego (9-2, 4-2 away)
at
Buffalo (5-6, 3-2 home)

Just when the Bills’ offense has come to life, their run defense, which was solid earlier in the year, has fallen apart, giving up huge rushing totals the last several weeks. Not a good sign with Tomlinson coming to town…

My Pick: LT continues his march towards the record books and lifts his team to victory
SAFE PICK

Minnesota (5-6, 2-3 away)
at
Chicago (9-2, 4-1 home)

Rex Grossman has had some pretty awful games this year, but he seems to be a resilient player. The game after his six turnover nightmare game in Arizona, he put up 252 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers and after his four turnover debacle against Miami, he responded with three touchdown passes as well. I expect him to shake off his bad game last week against the Patriots and pick apart the Vikings’ inconsistent secondary.

My Pick: Bears move to 5-1 at home
SAFE PICK

Kansas City (7-4, 2-3 away)
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Cleveland (3-8, 1-5 home)

The Browns locker-room is a mess and their defense can’t stop the run. Not a good combination when you are playing against one of the best running backs in the league…

My Pick: Chiefs roll
SAFE PICK

New York Jets (6-5, 3-2 away)
at
Green Bay (4-7, 1-4 home)

Favre is simply not getting it done right now. He has the receivers and the running game to allow him to lift his team to victory, but, with the inconsistency of his passes the past couple weeks, I’m not sure it’s going to happen. I’ll take the Jets, who play hard every week and are well coached.

My Pick: Jets move to 7-5 and stay in playoff contention

Indianapolis (10-1, 4-1 away)
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Tennessee (4-7, 2-3 home)

The Titans played the Colts close last time out, eventually losing by one point, and I see them giving them another tough game on Sunday. Vince Young is playing really well right now, their pass defense has done a great job of limiting the types of big plays that Manning thrives on, they have a running back who has had a lot of success in his career against the Colts (including this year when he rushed for 123 yards) and the game is in Tennessee. No one else seems to be with me on this, but I am taking the Titans in an upset here.

My Pick: Titans shock the Colts

Arizona (2-9, 0-5 away)
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St. Louis (5-6, 3-2 home)

Despite mediocre play and a mediocre record of 5-6, the Rams are only one game out of the last wild card spot and the Giants are fading fast. Bulger seemed to get things together last week and their offense looked more like the juggernaut it was at the beginning of the season. Their defense may be shaky still, but, in a shootout, I’ll take Bulger at home over Leinart on the road.

My Pick: Rams win a wild one

Detroit (2-9, 0-5 away)
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New England (8-3, 3-3 home)

The Detroit offense has been mediocre lately and much of that can be traced back to tailback Kevin Jones, who has been injured the past couple weeks. His return could reinvigorate the Lions a bit, but they are facing a defense that forced five turnovers last week and is playing better than it has all season. And really, Detroit’s defense has no chance of stopping Brady and co.

My Pick: Patriots dispatch the Lions with ease
SAFE PICK

San Francisco (5-6, 1-4 away)
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New Orleans (7-4, 3-2 home)

The ‘9ers have played well this season, but the Saints’ passing game is unstoppable right now and San Francisco’s secondary is a little shaky. Gore will be able to get his, but I can’t see Alex Smith matching Drew Brees. Also, it’s an away game for the ‘9ers, who are an ugly 1-4 on the road this year.

My Pick: Saints continue their heavenly play
SAFE PICK

Atlanta (5-6, 2-3 away)
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Washington (4-7, 3-2 home)

The Falcons desperately need a win. Can Washington’s defense (which has been bad all year) be expected to stop Atlanta from getting one? I, for one, don’t trust either team. But I’ll take the Falcons, since Vick is due for one of those crazy games where he throws for three touchdowns and every sportswriter declares that he has finally proven he can be a successful passing quarterback.

My Pick: Falcons pick up a much-needed win on the road

Houston (3-8, 1-5 away)
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Oakland (2-9, 2-3 home)

You may laugh at me, but I think that Aaron Brooks has been a spark for the Raiders offense. He is much more mobile than Walter and he has a stronger arm. His decision-making skills are always in question but he has talent. I’ll take his team here because the Texans can only beat teams from Jacksonville on the road and the Raiders play much better at home than they do on the road.

My Pick: Raiders move to .500 at home

Jacksonville (6-5, 1-4 away)
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Miami (5-6, 3-2 home)

Jacksonville has been awful on the road this season (1-4) but traveling to Miami won’t be much of a road trip. More importantly, the Dolphins have been red hot, fueled by a dominant pass-rush led defense and a seemingly reborn Joey Harrington at quarterback. The Jaguars have been inconsistent all season and are coming off of an inexcusable loss to the Bills last week. All signs seem to point towards a Miami victory. But, I have learned my lesson with this team. They always do the exact opposite of what I expect them to do. Therefore, I am picking the Jaguars to win.

My Pick: Jacksonville wins (based on my theory of reverse psychology)

Dallas (7-4, 3-3 away)
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New York Giants (6-5, 3-2 home)

The Giants really need a win right now and they are playing at home. Still, the Cowboys seem to have the edge. Their offense, led by Tony Romo, has been nothing short of spectacular and their defense has been solid. The Giants need to stop bickering and regain some sense of team unity. Even if they do, will it be enough for them to beat the team that is the class of their division?

My Pick: Cowboys send the G-men to their fourth straight loss

Tampa Bay (3-8, 0-5 away)
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Pittsburgh (4-7, 3-2 home)

Tampa is 0-5 on the road this year and Gradkowski has been mediocre the past couple weeks. Still, the Pittsburgh secondary has been susceptible to big plays so I could see Joey Galloway getting open frequently. If only Gradkowski could throw a good deep ball…this team really needs Simms. I guess I’ll take the Steelers here. They have underperformed all season but they should be able to beat the struggling Buccaneers at home.

My Pick: Steelers defeat another underperforming team that is outside of the playoff picture

Seattle (7-4, 2-3 away)
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Denver (7-4, 3-2 home)

Denver’s run defense has been solid for most of the season but has been susceptible to giving up huge yardage totals to stud running backs, as Tomlinson and Larry Johnson showed us the last two weeks. After 201 rushing yards against the Packers, Shaun Alexander looks to be back at stud status, so I expect him to have a big game on Sunday too. The Broncos should be able to do a decent job containing the Seahawks’ passing game but if Alexander has another big game, it may not matter. Especially with rookie quarterback Jay Cutler making his first career start in place of the (finally) supplanted Jake “The Garter Snake” Plummer. There are bound to be some growing pains for Cutler and he is going to experience a lot of pressure from an aggressive defense that leads the AFC in sacks.

My Pick: Seahawks win on the road and spoil Cutler’s debut

That’s it for now. Check back Sunday night for my Monday Night pick...