If football and my blog are distracting you from your work...well, you're not the only one...

Classes are over, and exams have begun—after my eight page paper I finished up last night, I have another five pager due Monday and a final bright and early Tuesday morning—and I am in dire need of something engrossing to distract me during study breaks. Enter football. Forget anything resembling academia; the only test that matters for me takes place on Sunday. Can I replicate my brilliance from last week? Read on and find out for yourself…

Last Week: 13-3
(SAFE PICKS: 4-1)

Season: 112-80
(SAFE PICKS: 51-27)

Oakland (2-10, 0-6 away)
at
Cincinnati (7-5, 3-3 home)

As I did last week, ESPN.com is buying into the increase in offensive statistics since Aaron Brooks’ return. Don’t be fooled. Brooks has always been successful at piling up a ton of passing yards…only to inevitably negate them with stupid interceptions.

My Pick: Bengals roll at home
SAFE PICK

Minnesota (5-7, 2-4 away)
at
Detroit (2-10, 2-4 home)

While ESPN.com notes that the Vikings are “still eyeing the postseason”, I doubt that this pipedream will persist much longer. Brad Johnson is washed-up and they have no viable backup to take his place. And to confound this even further, starting running back Chester Taylor, their only viable offensive star, is out. Can you really expect this mess of an offense to go on the road and beat a team that nearly took down the Patriots last week? I can’t see it happening…

My Pick: Lions pick up their third win of the season
SAFE PICK

Baltimore (9-3, 4-2 away)
at
Kansas City (7-5, 5-1 home)

Sure the Chiefs lost to the Browns last week but that was in Cleveland. Kansas City is a completely different team at home than they are on the road. The Ravens’ Steve McNair-dependent offense is due for a bad game, and I think that facing a solid pass defense in Arrowhead, the toughest place to play in the NFL, it will probably happen. And can the Ravens really hold down Larry Johnson? I doubt it.

My Pick: Chiefs move to 6-1 at home

New England (9-3, 5-0 away)
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Miami (5-7, 3-3 home)

The Patriots look really shaky right now and the Dolphins have played really well during the second half of the season. Miami’s defense should force New England into several turnovers and this game is going to be close. I hate to do pick against my team, but I am taking the home team here in an upset. The Patriots are due for a loss with the way that they’ve played the last couple games.

My Pick: Dolphins shock the Pats

Atlanta (6-6, 3-3 away)
at
Tampa Bay (3-9, 3-3 home)

The Falcons came together last week in Washington and I expect them to feed off of that success and play well again this Sunday. It also helps that Tampa can’t play offense or defense very well…

My Pick: Falcons win their second straight and remain in playoff contention

Philadelphia (6-6, 2-3 away)
at
Washington (4-8, 3-3 home)

Will the trend of home teams unexpectedly winning against favored opponents continue here? I doubt it, as the Jeff Garcia-led Eagles passing game picked apart the Panthers last week and Washington’s secondary has been shaky all season. Can the Eagles really make it to the postseason without McNabb? They have a shot in the historically mediocre NFC…

My Pick: Garcia leads the Eagles back over .500

New York Giants (6-6, 3-3 away)
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Carolina (6-6, 4-2 home)

Both of these teams badly need this win…the loser will probably have too much to overcome to make the playoffs. Eli Manning did look better last week, which is good news for the Giants, but Tiki Barber has really tailed off and their defense has been merely average. The Panthers have played just fine, well enough to be 9-3 right now. But they are 6-6 because of the awful fourth quarter turnovers of quarterback Jake Delhomme. With Delhomme out this week, Chris Weinke has a chance to steal the starting job by leading the team to victory over the Giants. Will it happen? My crystal ball says…

My Pick: Weinke has a big game and leads the Panthers to victory and into the playoffs

Indianapolis (10-2, 4-2 away)
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Jacksonville (7-5, 5-1 home)

The Colts’ weak run defense is holding them back right now, and that will be glaringly obvious on Sunday in Jacksonville, where they face a team that is dominant defensively at home, in desperate need of a win and features the best one-two running punch (Fred Taylor and Maurice Drew) in the league.

My Pick: The Jags hand the Colts their second straight loss

Tennessee (5-7, 2-4 away)
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Houston (4-8, 2-3 home)

The Titans only have one more win than the Texans, but they are a much better team. Since Vince Young took over, Tennessee is 5-4 and has beaten the likes of the Giants and Colts and barely lost to the Ravens, 27-26. This game may be close though, as there has to be a bit of a letdown for the Titans. After all, they did just beat the #1 team in the league last week. Will this be enough for David Carr, Andre Johnson and co. to steal a victory at home? With Vince Young eager to show the Texans what they missed out on when they passed him up in the draft, I doubt it…

My Pick: Titans move to 6-4 under Vince Young

Seattle (8-4, 3-3 away)
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Arizona (3-9, 2-4 home)

Matt Leinart is putting up some pretty impressive passing numbers lately—as he should with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin as his starting receivers—but Arizona can’t run the ball or stop the run…until last week when they did both against a struggling St. Louis team. I can’t see that happening again with the track history of this defense and offensive line. I’d expect Leinart and the wideouts to get theirs but for James to be shut down and Shaun Alexander to have another huge game. Don’t forget about the defending NFC champs…they’re healthy now and they could sneak up on people come playoff time.

My Pick: Seahawks take another step towards the NFC West Title
SAFE PICK

Green Bay (4-8, 3-3 away)
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San Francisco (5-7, 4-2 home)

The Packers look awful right now…they can’t put any points on the board and they aren’t stopping anyone either. Now they have to go on the road and face Frank Gore who has been possibly the most dominant offensive player in the NFC this season. This could get ugly…

My Pick: ‘9ers win and keep their playoff hopes alive
SAFE PICK

Buffalo (5-7, 2-4 away)
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New York Jets (7-5, 3-3 home)

The Bills are banged up right now and the Jets are hot. McGahee has looked good lately and Losman really has been decent but the Bills’ defense has too many injuries right now to shut down a peaking offense on the road.

My Pick: Jets take another step towards a playoff berth
SAFE PICK

Denver (7-5, 4-2 away)
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San Diego (10-2, 5-0 home)

I can’t say that I entirely agree with ESPN.com’s assessment of this game—Denver is in danger of being blown out—but it will be tough for them to win in San Diego with a struggling offense and a defense that has looked rather ordinary as of late. San Diego’s defense hasn’t looked as solid recently either though, so I expect this game to stay fairly tight. Tomlinson is, as always, the X-factor, and I expect him to have a big game. After all, he already proved that he can run on Denver earlier in the season. I don’t think that there is a defense out there that can hold him down.

My Pick: Chargers stay undefeated at home

New Orleans (8-4, 4-2 away)
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Dallas (8-4, 4-1 home)

The Saints have as good an offense as any team in the NFC but they are a bit banged up right now. Both Joe Horn and Marques Colston will likely be out again which leaves Drew Brees with Devery Henderson as his only viable target downfield. Reggie Bush broke out last week with four touchdowns and looked dominating but the Saints will need him to do it again in order to have a chance to win this game. New Orleans’ pass defense is not good enough to stop Tony Romo from throwing the ball down the field successfully and Dallas is inevitably going to put up some points. Brees will keep his team in it for most of the game with some deep passes of his own but in the end it won’t be enough.

My Pick: Cowboys prove that they can beat a good team

That’s it for now. Check back on Sunday for the Bears/Rams pick. Time to get back to studying I suppose…