The Good, The Bad and The Gritty...

I am not normally one to gloat, but I feel that I could not have been more right in my prediction for the Monday Night game: Rothelisberger looked rusty, he was outplayed by Leftwich and the Jaguars’ defense was nasty, which all added up to a gritty 9-0 win for Jacksonville. It will be much more difficult for pseudo football pundits to ignore the Jaguars after they embarrassed the defending Super Bowl champs on Monday Night Football.

Okay, enough ego-stroking for one post. Let’s switch gears now and discuss some things that I was really wrong about in Week 2:

The Bills shocked me by defeating the Dolphins (a trendy preseason Super Bowl pick) despite the absence of Takeo Spikes. This was because Dante Culpepper is not the same quarterback since his return from knee surgery. He looks tentative on every play, and refuses to leave the pocket even when he feels pressure coming. The Bills sacked him seven times on Sunday and held his team scoreless until the waning moments of the game. Where is the confident, proficient passer who would, on a regular basis, scramble to escape the defense and make game-breaking plays? I’m not sure if he still exists, but if he still does, he better make an appearance soon or the Dolphins’ playoff hopes are kaput. I know one thing for sure…Miami is wishing that they had signed Drew Brees instead when they had the chance…

On to the Tampa/Atlanta game…I can’t help but digress for a moment and comment on the Falcons’ new offense. In the short term, the Falcons’ “college option” offense looks unstoppable. Tampa Bay has what I consider to be a solid run defense, but Atlanta decimated it on Sunday en route to a team record in rushing yards. What really surprised me in this game though was Tampa’s inability to put points on the board. Chris Simms threw for 313 yards and Galloway had 9 receptions for 161 yards and they could only put 3 points on the board?!? Keep in mind that Galloway was getting open quite frequently despite being covered by Hall, one of the top CBs in the league. This leads me to believe that if Simms can cut down on his mistakes, this offense still has a chance to thrive. Does that mean that the Buccaneers still have a shot at a playoff berth? That remains to be seen. Does it mean that they can beat the Panthers on Sunday? I’ll keep you in suspense for now…and move on to this week’s picks:

Last Week: 11-5
(SAFE PICKS: 6-1)

Season: 20-12
(SAFE PICKS: 9-2)

New York Jets (1-1, 1-0 away)
at
Buffalo (1-1, 0-0 home)

I’ve heard way too many media members complimenting the Bills’ defense over the last two weeks…in my opinion they really aren’t that good. They beat up on the Dolphins last week simply because Culpepper was hesitant and refused to scramble. They played the Patriots close but New England really just looked sloppy in that game (which was understandable as it was the first game of the season). They have proven nothing to me. And I still think that it is impossible for J.P. Losman to lead a winning team. How can you depend on a quarterback who takes a safety by running out of the end zone? Furthermore, how can you expect to stop an efficient passing attack when you are starting two rookies at safety? An efficient passing attack is exactly what the New York Jets have, and I think that Chad Pennington, Laverneus Coles and Cotchery will expose the Bills’ secondary for what it is—a major weakness. Pennington may not be able to throw a ball 60 yards, but he is a very smart and efficient quarterback who reads defenses as well as anyone in the league and is very good at finding open receivers for short and medium completions. If Kevin Barlow gets things going, New York could compete for a playoff berth. That being said, even if Barlow rushes for under 50 yards, the Jets will have no trouble beating the Bills in this game…

My Pick:
Jets win the battle of New York
SAFE PICK

Green Bay (0-2, 0-0 away)
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Detroit (0-2, 0-1 home)

I feel as though both of these teams, were they not playing each other, would be 0-3 after Sunday. Since they are playing each other though, one of them has to end up in the win column…I think that that team will be the Packers. They may have lost a disappointing game last week at home to the Saints, but at least they have shown some semblance of an offense (Favre threw for over 300 yards and they scored 27 points last week). The Lions have managed a total of 13 points in their first two contests. (Note to Vegas: How can you favor a team by a touchdown when they have only scored one touchdown in their first 2 games?)

My Pick:
Green Bay picks up their first win on the road.

Jacksonville (2-0, 0-0 away)
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Indianapolis (2-0, 1-0 home)

The Jaguars looked very impressive on Monday (as mentioned earlier) but they face an even tougher task on Sunday, facing a passing attack that is hotter than Natalie Portman. Peyton Manning threw for 400 yards last week and spread the ball all over the field. Granted he was facing quite possibly the worst pass defense in the league, but he looks pretty damn confident right now. If this game was in Jacksonville and they had not gritted out two tough victories over talented teams in the first two weeks, I would give the Jags a shot, but I am pretty confident that with the game being in Indy, and with the Colts being less worn out, they will win.

My Pick:
Colts hand a tough Jags team their first defeat

Tennessee (0-2, 0-1 away)
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Miami (0-2, 0-1 home)

Now, as I mentioned earlier, Miami has been a very bad team thus far; however, the Titans are in a whole other league of “bad”. Their defense is very balanced; that is to say that they are just as inept at stopping the run as they are the pass. This is just the type of match-up that Culpepper needs to boost his confidence…

My Pick:
The ‘phins pick up their first win
SAFE PICK

Chicago (2-0, 1-0 away)
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Minnesota (2-0, 1-0 home)
The Vikings’ 2-0 record is a bit misleading…they have relied on excellent coaching, hard work and a little luck to get to this point. They really don’t have any players at any position that scare you, but in the NFC North, they have a good shot at finishing 9-7 and stealing a wildcard berth. On the other hand, they have very little chance of defeating the Bears, who not only have the best defense in the NFC (again) but also feature a budding star in QB Rex Grossman, who threw 4 TD passes last week against Detroit. If Grossman can keep playing at a high, or at least better than average, level, the Bears have a very good shot at making it to the Super Bowl.

My Pick: The Bears decimate another division “rival”
SAFE PICK

Cincinnati (2-0, 1-0 away)
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Pittsburgh (1-1, 1-0 home)

Carson Palmer has been waiting for 9 months to seek revenge on the team that knocked the Bengals out of the playoffs and sent him off the field with a career-threatening knee injury. He has caught the Steelers at a bad time too, coming off a shutout loss to the Jaguars in which Rothelisberger struggled mightily, throwing three interceptions, and Willie Parker only rushed for 20 yards. The Pittsburgh defense looked good last week, but do you really expect them to hold down the Cincinnati offense? Everywhere you look, there are guys that can hurt you: Carson Palmer at QB (352 yards and 2 TD passes last week), Rudi Johnson at RB (26 carries for 145 yards and 2 TDs), and three outstanding WRs in Chad Johnson (78 yards and a TD), Chris Henry (113 yards) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (making his season debut in this game). If Pittsburgh gets its act together offensively, this will turn into a shootout (as there is no “D” in Bengal). If not, it will be a blowout. Either way, the Bengals will win.

My Pick: Bengals avenge last year’s divisional playoff defeat
SAFE PICK

Carolina (0-2, 0-1 away)
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Tampa Bay (0-2, 0-1 home)

Sports Illustrated, in its preseason predictions, picked Carolina to win the Super Bowl. This is significant firstly because I cannot remember them picking a single Super Bowl representative correctly in the last 5 or so years; secondly, because the last time they picked the Panthers to win the Super Bowl, Carolina proceeded to lose its first three games (and then some), all without the services of Steve Smith, and failed to make the playoffs. The Panthers have a lot of history to overcome here. They also need to get their running game on track because DeShaun Foster looks like he is three steps slower this year, averaging only 2.9 yards per carry and showing no ability to break tackles. Steve Smith may play this week, but you have to expect him to be a bit rusty with all of the time that he has been sitting on the sideline. Tampa did lose pretty badly last week, but I feel that the score was misleading: the scoring opportunities were there. Simms threw for over 300 yards and Galloway caught 9 balls for over 160 yards…and Simms missed him several times when he was open in the end zone! The Bucs just haven’t capitalized on their opportunities and I think that they are bound to start doing so eventually…their passing game should be better than the Panthers’ on Sunday (even with the potential return of Smith) and I think that they will hold on for the win here.

My Pick: Tampa wins (history repeats itself)

Washington (0-2, 0-1 away)
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Houston (0-2, 0-1 home)

For much of Sunday’s game against Dallas, Washington was able to compensate for their injury-ravaged secondary by sticking more players out there and shying away from putting pressure on the quarterback. Eventually though, with enough time to see the field, Bledsoe was able to break their defense down and lead his team to victory. It certainly didn’t help that Mark Brunell (who should not still be in the NFL) only completed 8 of his first 20 passes, but that’s a different story. The stacked coverage defense that Washington is forced to play is much more important in regards to this game. This is because of Texans quarterback David Carr. There is a distinct pattern surrounding Carr’s triumphs and struggles: when his offensive line (which has been awful ever since he came into the league) gives him enough time to throw the ball he is very successful; when his offensive line breaks down, he gets sacked a lot. Now, since Washington is still forced to play special teams players in their secondary, I expect that they will have to double-team Eric Moulds and Andre Johnson (two excellent receivers) on pretty much every play. This means that they most likely won’t be putting much pressure on Carr, which bodes well for him. Since the Texans’ defense is pretty awful, if Mark Brunell has anything left, this will turn into a shootout. Unfortunately for Washington fans though, Brunell looks washed up and it doesn’t look like Gibbs plans on benching him anytime soon.

My Pick: The Texans pick up their first win at home

Baltimore (2-0, 1-0 away)
Cleveland (0-2, 0-1 home)

I could spend a paragraph here talking about how good Baltimore’s defense is and how bad Cleveland is on both sides of the ball but I won’t. It would be a waste of both my time and yours.

My Pick: Ravens (insert intelligent comment that equates to “duh” here)
SAFE PICK

St. Louis (1-1, 0-1 away)
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Arizona (1-1, 1-0 home)

The Cardinals had the top passing attack in the league last year and have looked pretty good in that regard this year as well. Now that they actually have a running game (Edgerrin James) they boast a pretty formidable offense. Meanwhile, the Rams’ defense looked ineptly balanced last week in their loss to the 49ers, allowing 127 rushing yards to Frank Gore and 131 receiving yards to Antonio Bryant. I get the feeling that Kurt Warner (who way-back-when led them to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances) will tear them apart through the air and James will do his part on the ground. The Rams may score some points to keep this interesting (the Cardinals’ defense is pretty awful too) but I expect Arizona to prevail.

My Pick: Cardinals win a shootout at home

Philadelphia (1-1, 1-0 away)
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San Francisco (1-1, 1-0 home)

The 49ers’ offense has looked pretty good the first 2 weeks, but they are simply overmatched here. Their fourth quarter meltdown aside, the Eagles look like the class of the NFC thus far. Donovan McNabb looks better than ever this season (300+ passing yards in each of the first 2 weeks) and I expect more of the same from him on Sunday against a pretty weak 49er secondary. Terrell who?

My Pick: Eagles win on the road
SAFE PICK

New York Giants (1-1, 1-0 away)
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Seattle (2-0, 1-0 home)

For a combination of reasons, many of which elude me, Seattle is a much much better team at home than they are on the road. I thought that the Giants showed a lot of grit last week in their crazy comeback win over the Eagles, but I still feel like I need to give the edge to Seattle here. This is more of an intuition pick than anything else. The Giants have looked much better than the Seahawks so far this year, but my gut tells me that they are going to lose this game.

My Pick: Seattle doesn’t lose at home (although the numbers say that they should here)

Denver (1-1, 0-1 away)
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New England (2-0, 1-0 home)

Trust me, Bill Belichick can’t wait to see the Broncos on Sunday night. You think that the Patriots have forgotten the (mostly) ref-induced Denver debacle that was their playoff exit last year? Not a chance, because Belichick will be reminding them every waking second. All I can say is this: If Jake Plummer thought things were going badly before, he is in for a rude awakening on Sunday. The screams for Cutler will only get louder from here on out…

My Pick: Pats defense will have a field day at Plummer’s expense
SAFE PICK

That’s it for now. Stay tuned for my Monday Night pick…