Pigskin-Induced Delirium: Case 13

Last week I broke back into the double-digit correct picks week club again for the first time since Week 3...despite not being intelligent enough to realize that Detroit plays in a dome. Can I continue my revived success this week and punch in another 10+ correct picks? It will be tough with a multitude of daunting match-ups set to unfold, but I'll give it a try...

Last Week: 12-4
(How about this for a formula? Week 12 :: 12 Correct Picks As Week 13:: 13 Correct Picks?? Damn, I hope I didn't just jinx myself?)

Green Bay (2-9, 1-5 away) at Chicago (8-3, 5-1 home):
With no offensive line to speak of and no receivers to throw to, expect another tough day for Brett Favre.,,He couldn't even complete half of his passes last week against a depleted Eagles secondary so I expect this one to be rather unsightly. Favre has discovered a newfound talent for throwing interceptions into the end-zone (2 of them last week) and has 19 touchdowns and 19 picks this season.

My Pick: Bears

Jacksonville (8-3, 4-2 away) at Cleveland (4-7, 3-2 home):
(Note: This pick has been changed as of Friday afternoon)
I can't very well abandon my "wintry weather" theory now, even though the Bills couldn't quite hold on last week...The updated weather report for Sunday in Cleveland looks like this: temperatures in the low 30's, snow and high winds.
This already looked like a favorable match-up for Cleveland, as they are 3-2 at home, Jaguars' starting QB Byron Leftwich is out and Rueben Droughns has racked up 100+ rushing yards in his last 3 home games. Now though, you can throw both quarterbacks out the window, as the passing game will be a moot point in these extreme winter conditions. Despite Leftwich being out, this actually works in Cleveland's favor as their Trent Dilfer-led passing game is far worse than a David Garrard-led one. This one will be decided on the ground and I feel that this heavily favors the Browns despite their 28th ranked rush defense (as compared to the Jaguars' 14th ranked run D). Fred Taylor is back as the starting RB for Jacksonville and he has been hindered by injuries all season, and I don't expect him to be especially sharp after missing 2 out of the last 3 games. Meanwhile, Rueben Droughns has been unstoppable at home, racking up over 5 yards per carry in his last 3 outings. The Jags are 3-5 in their last 8 games playing in temperatures of 35 degrees or lower and I expect them to be 3-6 after this one...

My Pick: Browns give new credence to my "wintry weather" theory

Minnesota (6-5, 2-4 away) at Detroit (4-7, 3-3 home):
The Lions will never be winners with Millen running them. If they were going to can somebody they should have taken a look at the man responsible for putting this underperforming roster together. Meanwhile, the Vikings, with Brad Johnson at the helm and a surprisingly solid secondary that will feast on Harrington/Garcia's deliciously weak passes, are looking to continue their push for a playoff spot. Mike Tice has gone from about-to-be-run-out-of-town to possible-coach-of-the-year...

My Pick: Vikings

Tennessee (3-8, 1-4 away) at Indianapolis (11-0, 5-0 home):
Steve McNair looked like his old self last week, but that was against the 49ers at home. Expect a second straight strong game from the Indy D (4th in the league) and the usual firepower from Manning, James and co as the undefeated Colts stay perfect...for now.

My Pick: Colts

Buffalo (4-7, 0-5 away) at Miami (4-7, 2-3 home)
It's no secret that the Bills are absolutely awful on the road (winless on the year). They also have an atrocious run defense (31st in the NFL ahead of only the Texans) and the Dolphins' offense is fueled by their double-headed running game (Ronnie Brown and the recently re-energized Ricky Williams). Pick the Bills in this one only if you are mentally challenged...

My Pick: Dolphins
SAFE PICK OF THE WEEK #1 (If I am wrong all readers of my blog are allowed to punch me as hard as they can in the groin, granted they picked the Bills to win)

Tampa Bay (7-4, 3-2 away) at New Orleans (3-8, 1-4 home):
The Saints proved two things to me last week against the Jets: they can pass the ball well enough to make their offensive statistics look impressive without actually putting up very many points and their defense can barely stop even the most anemic of offenses. Expect another solid game from the Bucs' second-ranked D and huge days offensively from Chris Simms and Joey Galloway...

My Pick: Buccaneers

Dallas (7-4, 3-2 away) at New York Giants (7-4, 5-1 home):
Finally we arrive at the first of several tough picks...Currently tied for the division lead, both of these teams are fighting for a playoff spot and will fall behind with a loss. The Giants blew three chances to win last week against Seattle on three missed field goals by Jay Feely, while the Cowboys (besides losing to Denver last week after a missed field goal of their own) lost several games earlier in the year as a result of late-game miscues from quarterback Drew Bledsoe. Thus, both teams have proven to be unreliable in clutch situations. However, both teams are well-coached and boast solid defenses (The Cowboys are 6th in the NFL in defense and the Giants are +11 in turnover ratio and have played extremely well in the second half of the season). This one's tough to call, but I'll take the G-men who I can't see losing two straight at home with the consistency which their defense and Tiki Barber have played with as of late. It'll be close; I could just as easily see the Cowboys taking this one...

My Pick: Giants come out on top in a hard-fought battle for the division lead

Cincinnati (8-3, 4-1 away) at Pittsburgh (7-4, 3-2 home):
Note: This Pick has been changed (as of Friday morning)
Playing at home seems to mean very little for either of these teams as they both have close to identical home and away records so far this season. These are two evenly-matched teams (although they play the game very differently). The Steelers will try to control the pace of the game (allowing Carson Palmer as little time on the field as possible) with their dynamic running duo of Willie Parker and Jerome Betis. They better because if Big Ben is forced to air it out, things could get ugly. In addition to the injuries to both knees that Rothlisberger is coming back from, last week against the Colts he "tweaked" his ankle and severely injured the thumb on his throwing hand to the point where he has to wear a protective device over his hand in order to practice. It would be unfair to expect him to be able to throw with his usual poise and precision on Sunday and obviously his mobility will be hindered as well. When you think about it, with their decimated offensive line that has performed very poorly in recent weeks, the Steelers' running game (which is essential to them winning the game) becomes a question mark and they are one bad hit away from having to hand the reins over to Tommy Maddox. The Bengals have proven to me so far this year that they can put up points with the best of them, but they can't make the plays when it matters against a good team. I think they finally get it together this weekend and leave Pittsburgh retaining the division lead. They have come a long way this season, and they are far better than the team that lost to the Steelers in Cincy earlier in the year. Palmer will be looking to get revenge against the one team that he played badly against this season, and I think the league's top-ranked quarterback (and his favorite target Chad Johnson, who has guaranteed that he "won't be stopped") will get the upper hand against their injury-weakened division rivals...

My Pick: Bengals finally beat a good team

Atlanta (7-4, 4-1 away) at Carolina (8-3, 4-1 home):
Atlanta has actually played better on the road this season than they have at home. Carolina has played horribly on offense the last couple weeks; they managed only a field goal against the Bears two weeks ago and barely beat the Bills last week. The Panthers' offense (no matter who the running back is) is one-dimensional and teams have realized that the Panthers cannot run the ball. The Falcons played great last week and showcased a balanced offense and a great running game (one that I think will eventually wear down the Panthers' third-ranked rushing defense with the contrasting running styles of Vick, Dunn and Duckett). I expect the Falcons to leave Carolina with a share of the NFC South lead...

My Pick: Falcons in yet another great match-up

Houston (1-10, 0-5 away) at Baltimore (3-8, 3-2 home):
With the great passing numbers that Carr put up last week against the Rams, it's tempting to pick the upset here...However, keep in mind that half the guys in an already sub-par St. Louis secondary were out with injuries so they were basically playing against college DBs. There are still a few guys on the Ravens that can play some defense and they did put up a lot of second half points against the Bengals last week...

My Pick: Ravens

Washington (5-6, 1-4 away) at St. Louis (5-6, 3-2 home):
The downward spiral continues for the Redskins who choked yet again last week against the Chargers. The Rams staged a furious fourth quarter comeback last week under rookie quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Expect the Redskins to come up short again as their inability to force turnovers and prevent them (-11 turnover/opponent turnover ratio on the season) causes them to lose another close game. Despite their weak defense, offense will prevail and Stephen Jackson, Tory Holt and co will pick up the victory and keep their slim playoff hopes alive...

My Pick: Rams

Arizona (3-8, 1-4 away) at San Francisco (2-9, 2-4 home):
Do I really have to pick this game?? At least I can take solace in the fact that I don't have to watch it...Expect Kurt Warner (who has thrown for 300+ yards in 3 of 4 games since being re-instated as the starting quarterback) to light up the porous '9er defense (dead last in the league) and lead the Cardinals to victory. Arizona could be decent next year if they shored up their defense and added a quality running back to complement Warner, Fitzgerald and Bouldin...

My Pick: Cardinals

Denver (9-2, 3-2 away) at Kansas City (7-4, 4-1 home):
The Broncos haven't lost a game in awhile and I feel like they're due. They got lucky last week against the Cowboys, dodging a bullet with a missed field goal, and had to pull a miraculous run out of the forgotten Ron Dayne to get the victory. Meanwhile the Chiefs were busy taking care of business against the Patriots and picking off Tom Brady 4 times. The Broncos' offense will be nearly as one-dimensional as the Pats' without Tatum Bell in the game to complement Mike Anderson and the Chiefs' Larry Johnson will have a tough time against Denver's top ranked rushing defense. This one will be decided through the air and I expect passes thrown early and often, with each team taking advantage of the other's suspect secondary. I'm taking the Chiefs here because they are at home and because their defense showed some ability to create turnovers last week against Tom Brady and the Pats...

My Pick: Chiefs win in a shootout

New York Jets (2-9, 0-6 away) at New England (6-5, 3-2 home):
The punchless Jets couldn't even beat the Saints at home last week; It's difficult to see them picking up their first road win against the Patriots and Tom Brady who always bounces back well after a bad game...

My Pick: Patriots are a no-brainer in this one
SAFE PICK OF THE WEEK #2

Oakland (4-7, 2-3 away) at San Diego (7-4, 3-2 home):
The Raiders looked awful last week at home against the then-struggling Dolphins. There's no way that they can go into San Diego against a well-balanced team fighting for the last wild card spot in the AFC and come out victorious...

My Pick: Chargers without a doubt
SAFE PICK OF THE WEEK #3

Monday Night:
Seattle (9-2, 3-2 away) at Philadelphia (5-6, 4-1 home):
Don't be tempted by looking at the Seahawks' offensive struggles against the Giants late in the game last week or the Eagles' 4-1 record at home this season. The Eagles' defense is depleted and Mike McMahon only threw for 91 yards last week against an atrocious Packer secondary. Expect a big offensive day from Hasselbeck and Alexander as the Eagles' last hopes of making the playoffs are torn away from them and their nightmare season plods onward...

My Pick: Seahawks in a laugher
SAFE PICK OF THE WEEK #4