Let's Give It Another Go...

Last Week: 7-7

Ok, so my picks didn’t go so well last week, but cut me a little slack. Who could have seen Dante Culpepper going down for the season on the first series of the Vikings’ game against the Panthers? Or Philly’s D go from giving up only 7 yards rushing to the best running back in the league(Ladanian Tomlinson) to allowing two 100 yard rushers and 48 points to a Broncos team that lost to a Giants team that I misjudged and thought was mediocre? I keenly observed that the Giants’ pass defense was ranked next to last in the league but failed to take into account that the Redskins really aren’t that good, all of their wins have been close, and they have been blown out in all of their losses. Thus, the 36-0 devastation that ensued in Giant Stadium should have not have come as such a surprise to me. But could I have for-seen the Rams beating the Jaguars without their coach, starting quarterback or their two Pro Bowl wide receivers? Or the 49ers beating Tampa Bay in a match-up of the team with the worst pass defense in the AFC against the best defense of the NFC, using a fourth-string quarterback who was forced because of lack of players to play both special teams and offense? I am feeling a bit demoralized, especially since I am sitting in second to last place in my picking pool, behind only my semi-retarded little brother, but I am going to give it another go...

Tennessee (2-6, 1-3 away) at Cleveland (2-5, 1-2 home):
Both of these teams lost close games last week that they could have won. The difference is Cleveland lost to a Texans team that had been previously winless, while the Titans lost to an Oakland team that isn’t that bad. Still, I’m taking the Browns here because they are playing for respect after being embarrassed last Sunday, and they are at home.

My Pick: Browns in a close match-up of teams playing only for respect

Atlanta (5-2, 2-1 away) at Miami (3-4, 2-1 home):
Miami feasted on Aaron Brooks’ stupidity last week, but Michael Vick has just as good an arm as Brooks, is more mobile and actually has an IQ over 50, so one would think that he will pose a bit more of a threat. However, it’s a well-kept secret that Vick has struggled this year thus far(QB rating of 63) and I am apparently alone in thinking this, but I think it will be more of the same for him against a stingy Miami defense. The Dolphins counter with the “intimidating” signal-caller and Lions cast-off Gus Ferotte who actually has a slightly higher QB rating than Vick(66.5). The key to this game though is the running game: The Falcons have struggled so far against the run, and now that Ricky Williams is getting back in shape, the Miami RB combination of Ricky and Ronnie Brown will be pretty tough to stop. T.J. Duckett, the Falcons’ starting RB is banged up and is questionable for the game. Plus, the Falcons haven’t been tested in awhile and the game is in Miami. I think the Dolphins will catch Atlanta off-guard…

My Pick: Dolphins in an upset that no-one(except me) predicts

San Diego (4-4, 2-2 away) at New York Jets (2-5, 2-1 home):
The Jets are 2-1 at home, but they’re playing one of the better teams in the AFC. Dpn’t let their ugly 4-4 record deceive you; the Chargers could easily be 6-2 or 7-1 right now. Brees and Antonio Gates are proving to be an unstoppable combination for opposing defenses, and I expect more of the same against a weakened Jet secondary. If they cheat and stick an extra guy back there to cover Gates, Tomlinson will make them pay, despite his mediocre showings the last two weeks on the ground. Plus, NY’s QB, Vinny Testaverde is like 50 years old.

My Pick: Chargers

Houston (1-6, 0-3 away) at Jacksonville (4-3, 2-1 home):
Well, the Texans won one game…maybe they can win another? Not against a perturbed Jaguar team that is pissed off after their embarrassing loss to the Dolphins last week.

My Pick: Jaguars in a lopsided one

Oakland (3-4, 1-2 away) at Kansas City (4-3, 2-1 home)…
Oakland has won two in a row, but look at who they were playing. The Chiefs are most certainly not the Titans(who the Raiders barely beat last week); they nearly beat a very good Chargers team last week. Expect both teams to put up a lot of points as neither squad plays any defense, but Trent Green, Priest Holmes and co. should have no problem taking care of business at home in this one.

My Pick: Chiefs


Detroit (3-4, 1-2 away) at Minnesota (2-5, 2-1 home):
When Culpepper went down last week, so did the Vikings’ chances of accomplishing anything this season, right? Hmmm...this is the NFC North we're talking about here...I’ve always been a Jeff Garcia fan but he looked pretty shaky last week. He is itching to get back on the field and redeem himself after losing the game and division lead in OT last week to the Bears, but I’m not so sure he will...I don't think he's fully recovered from his broken leg. They may have to hand the reins back to Joey Harrington. Brad Johnson (a traditional drop-back passer with a strong arm) at the helm will give the Viking offense a new look, and with a healthy receiving corps I think they will catch the Lions secondary off-guard.

My Pick: Vikings

Carolina (5-2, 2-1 away) at Tampa Bay (5-2, 3-0 home):
Tampa Bay showed me what they’re really made of last week; they failed to shut down the 49ers’ 4th string quarterback and lost. Carolina, meanwhile, beat up on a demoralized Vikings team that lost their best player for the season two minutes into the game. Its tempting to pick the Bucs here and assume that they are motivated to play well after being embarrassed last week, but the Panthers’ passing attack(Delhomme to Smith) is likely more than they can handle. If only the Panthers had a running game, SI’s preseason prediction might come true…

My Pick: Panthers


Cincinnati (6-2, 3-1 away) at Baltimore (2-5, 2-1 home):
Brian Billick’s days are numbered…This Ravens team has underachieved beyond belief. Of course, he couldn’t have forseen Jamal Lewis’ rapid deterioration, and injuries to Ray Lewis and Kyle Boller. Still, they did only lose to the Steelers by a point. But the Bengals are a better offensive team than Pittsburgh and have a more potent passing game; they are the class of the division.

My Pick: Bengals

Chicago (4-3, 1-2 away) at New Orleans (2-6, 1-3 home):
The Bears gritted out an overtime win in Detroit and showed that they can win purely on defense. This won’t get it done against the elite teams in the league, but against New Orleans, it could be enough...However, I don't see Chicago winning 2 games on the road in a row, especially not with Joe Horn, who was personally affected by Hurricane Katrina, motivated to give the home crowd something to cheer about in his second game back from injury(he had 99 yards receiving last week in his first game back).

My Pick: Saints

Seattle (5-2, 1-2 away) at Arizona (2-5, 2-2 home):
On the surface, this looks like an easy pick; Seattle in a blowout, but lets delve a bit deeper and look at some stats…Seattle is only 1-2 on the road this year, has lost 3 of their last 4 games in Arizona and lost their last 6 games coming off of a bye week. Furthermore, every week thus far in the NFL season, more home teams have won than road teams.

My Pick: Cardinals

New York Giants (5-2, 1-2 away) at San Francisco (2-5, 2-2 home):
Can the 49ers win two weeks in a row with the worst pass defense in the league and a 4th string quarterback? I think not. Especially not against a team as hot as the Giants. Look for Eli to actually complete 50% of his passes this week and for another 100 yard day out of Tiki Barber, who is one of the most underrated backs in the league.

My Pick: Giants

Pittsburgh (5-2, 3-0 away) at Green Bay (1-6, 1-2 home) :
Big Ben is out, after having arthroscopic surgery on his knee(he will likely miss next week’s game as well). The Steelers still have a chance to win as Tommy Maddox has fallen to third on their depth chart and won’t be losing the game by himself on Sunday as he did earlier in the year against Jacksonville when Rothlisberger was out(4 turnovers including a game-ending interception). However, I’ll take Brett Favre, even without a running game and his top receiver, over former Lions-castoff Charlie Batch who hasn’t started a game since I was like 16.

My Pick: Packers

Philadelphia (4-3, 1-3 away) at Washington (4-3, 3-0 home):
Both teams were beaten emphatically last week; the Eagles by the Broncos, and the Redskins by the Giants. In what looks to be an even match-up of struggling middle of the road teams, I’ll go with the statistics: The Eagles are 1-3 on the road and the ‘Skins are 3-0 at home…so I should go with the 'Skins? McNabb is pretty banged up and his "favorite" target, Terrell Owens, is out, suspended indefinitely for disparaging comments he made about the team, the organization and specifically his quarterback. But, Donovan will be extremely motivated to win this week and despite the fact that he is banged up and playing on the road, I am willing to bet that he will pull it out without T.O., in spite of T.O. and to prove T.O. wrong. Over the course of his career, he has always responded well to adversity and I don't expect any less than his best from him on Sunday night...

My Pick: Eagles

Indianapolis (7-0, 4-0 away) at New England (4-3, 2-1 home):
Yes, I know. The Colts are incapable of beating my Patriots, right? Um, not this year. The Pats could barely beat a mediocre Bills team last week at home, when they had two weeks to prepare for them. Even if Peyton chokes again, who in the Patriots’ secondary is capable of capitalizing?? And if they do stack the secondary, Edgerrin James(who is leading the league in rushing yards) will eat their front line alive, just like McGahee did last week…

My Pick: Colts