Now the World (Series)...

It’s been a wild postseason so far, and many are expecting the madness to continue in the World Series. Tonight, the Colorado Rockies, winners of 21 of their last 22, face off against the Boston Red Sox, who staged another October comeback to defeat a talented and balanced Indians team in seven games. In Game One tonight at Fenway, the regular and postseason leader in wins, Josh Beckett, will face off against Rockies ace Jeff Francis, who has won his first two postseason starts. With limited time at my disposal, I’m going to spare you the complete position-by-position analysis and get down to business here.
Boston has the two best postseason hitters in the game on their team (Ortiz and Manny) but top to bottom Colorado has a better lineup. That’s not to say (as half the talking heads are) that the Rockies’ lineup is invincible; nor is it to say (as the other half of the talking heads are) that it is overrated; the truth lies somewhere in between. I see the Rockies’ lineup as comparable to the Indians’ lineup. That’s a compliment, but it doesn’t mean that I think they will fare any better against Beckett than the Indians did.
The Red Sox, although I’m not enamored with their rotation as a whole, have a clear advantage in the starting pitching department. The Rockies rotation, top to bottom, is filled with (very slightly) above average pitchers who will struggle to get outs against the heart of the Red Sox order. Yes, they looked great in the NLCS, but it’s one thing for Francis, with his league average regular season level ERA and WHIP, to dominate the Diamondbacks, with a leadoff hitter who batted below .240 and whose best batter is pitcher Micah Owings; it’s quite another to do it against a team with the best 3/4 combo in all of baseball. I expect the Red Sox to hit Colorado starting pitching early and often, beginning tonight against Francis. Of course, once the Rockies get past Beckett (the best big game pitcher in the league), they should be able to do some hitting of their own. Schilling hardly resembles the dominant pitcher he was in 2004, and Matsuzaka has looked tired and wild during the postseason.
Once the game gets to the later innings, both teams have two solid bullpen pitchers that will hold the opposing offense in check: Okajima and Papelbon for Boston, and Fuentes and Corpas for Colorado.
The defensive edge goes to the Rockies, who have quietly played the best defense in all of baseball this year. The Red Sox defense has been quite good as well (far better than it was in ’04), but it will take a hit when the Sawx travel to Colorado and have to play Ortiz in the field, and deal with lead-footed Manny having to cover more ground in left field.
You certainly can’t discount the advantage of a team getting hot during the playoffs (after all, the Cardinals did win it all last year), but Colorado’s long layoff and the way the Red Sox have played over the last three games have nullified that advantage for the Rockies in my estimation. I know that the Rockies took two of three from Boston in July, but that is ancient history. I also seem to recall the Yankees going undefeated against the Tribe during the regular season before being dominated by them in the first round. The bottom line is that this series will boil down to the same thing that it did during the Angels/Sox, Indians/Yankees and Sox/Indians series—starting pitching. Colorado doesn’t have a single starting pitcher that scares me, and I therefore can’t see them winning this series. I see them beating up on Dice-K and avoiding the sweep, but nothing more.

My Prediction: Red Sox in Five