Pandemonic Parity

This Just In…
We now take a break from our regular scheduled programming of exams, papers and Labatt Blue to give you Benji’s Wild and Wacky Week 15 picks:

Last Week:
Overall: 12-4
Safe Picks: 6-0

The playoff picture is a mess in both conferences and after this week I expect even more chaos to ensue. A lot of teams are fighting for their playoff lives right now and I expect desperation to be a key factor in many of these match-ups; forget my wintry weather theory; forget home-field advantage; forget even playing for the history books. Let the madness begin!!

We’ll start with the Saturday games:

Tampa Bay (9-4, 5-2 away) at New England (8-5, 4-2 home):
The Patriots are finally starting to get healthy and they looked pretty impressive last week…Does this spell trouble for the rest of the league? Let’s not rate them as Super Bowl contenders again quite yet; they were playing the Bills. But it could spell trouble for the Buccaneers, who are traditionally bad in cold-weather games and should help me up my record in games I’ve picked bearing the “wintry weather theory” tag. Tampa Bay has also been consistently inconsistent lately; alternating good and bad performances. You never know quite what you’re going to get from them but I can’t see them beating the Pats in Foxboro after their inspired effort last week against the Panthers, if only because they can’t seem to put together two good games in a row…

My Pick: Patriots
My First SAFE PICK

Denver (10-3, 3-3 away) at Buffalo (4-9, 4-3 home):
Damn, I would love to pick an upset here but I just can’t justify it…The Broncos have played miserably on offense as of late and the Bills have picked up all 4 of their wins at home…but the Bills’ run defense (as I love to point out every week) is atrocious and their offense has been even worse than Denver’s. Losman is not the answer; the Bills need to do some QB shopping in the off-season. Maybe they should try to trade for Atlanta backup Matt Schuab?
My Pick: Broncos

Kansas City (8-5, 3-4 away) at New York Giants (9-4, 6-1 home):
Yes, the Chiefs are 3-4 on the road and the Giants are 6-1 at home. Yes the Giants’ defense has played very well during the second half of the year, especially at home, leading the NFC in turnover ratio at +11. But, I’m going to throw all the stats out the window and tell you what really needs to be examined here…Eli Manning is an inconsistent quarterback and has lately been making a lot of bad passes, nearly losing a game to the lowly Eagles last week by himself. Dr. Z (from Sports Illustrated) put it best in his most recent column:
“Why should we send Eli Manning to Cuba?”
“Because he could overthrow Castro!”
But let’s forget the jokes for a minute, as we know Dick Vermeil and the Chiefs will on Saturday. They are certainly taking this game very very seriously and I expect to see them play with an inspired sense of desperation and urgency that the Giants won’t be able to match. Trent Green (3,287 passing yards) and Larry Johnson (averaging 141 rushing yards in the last 6 games) are going to come through as they have all year and although I don’t expect the Giants to lay down and die, I can’t see them winning this one. In fact, I am so sure that I am going to make this pick a SAFE PICK as well.

My Pick: Chiefs pull off the upset and keep their playoff hopes alive…
My Second SAFE PICK

WHEW…You thought that was wild? You haven’t seen anything yet…On to the Sunday games…

Seattle (11-2, 4-2 away) at Tennessee (4-9, 3-4 home):
I could waste a bunch of time and space here babbling on about how the Titans might have a chance since they’re playing at home, where they’ve played decently this year and how Seattle, having clinched their division, may suffer a letdown but let’s be serious…The Seahawks still have a lot to play for as they need to keep winning to get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Titans? They only beat the Texans last week because they had the game intentionally handed to them (We’ll revisit this again a bit later). The real question is will this game be as lopsided as the Seahawks’ last two games?

My Pick: Seahawks
My Third SAFE PICK

San Diego (8-5, 4-2 away) at Indianapolis (13-0, 6-0 home):
Every analyst whose column I’ve read over the last few days has backed off picking an upset here. I guess I can see why; the Chargers’ effort last week against the Dolphins was hardly awe-inspiring. But we can all agree that if the Colts don’t lose this one, then nobody left on their regular season schedule is going to beat them. Despite the fact that everyone else who had joined me on the Chargers’ bandwagon has jumped off, I’m staying. Here’s what I know: The Colts have relied all year on having a balanced offense, rushing and passing. I expect Edgerrin James to be shut down this week by San Diego’s top ranked run defense (allowing under 80 rushing yards a game) forcing Peyton to air it up. And why is that a bad thing? Let me spell it out for you…Remember the last game that Indy played in which they had a realistic shot at losing? When they squared off against the Bengals in Cincinnati they found themselves in a shootout with a talented offensive team and Edgerrin James was held to 89 yards rushing. This forced Manning to have to win a shootout in a QB duel between him and Carson Palmer, and although he pulled out the victory in the 4th quarter when Palmer faltered, the Bengals were just on the cusp of taking control of that game, and would have if Manning hadn’t performed so brilliantly, throwing for 365 yards and playing mistake-free football down the stretch. The Chargers may not be as good a team as the Bengals and Drew Brees may not be as good a quarterback as Carson Palmer, but I expect the same type of firefight to ensue on Sunday. One thing that the Chargers have going for them is the desperation factor: If they lose this game then their season is essentially over. The Colts may be playing for history, but do they have enough fire left to beat a team on the verge of elimination who will stop at nothing to beat them? I may go down with the Chargers’ ship on this one, but I know this is going to be a competitive game regardless of what the analysts are saying and I know San Diego needs the victory to stay alive. This game will show me what kind of character this Colts team has and whether not they finally have what it takes to win it all or if they are destined for another season of underachievement…

My Pick: Chargers keep their season alive and prevent history from being made

Philadelphia (5-8, 1-5 away) at St. Louis (5-8, 3-3 home):
A battle of mediocrity…The Eagles did compete pretty well against the Giants last week but that was because Eli Manning tried to give the game away. I’ll take the Rams since they’re at home, and have their top two playmakers (Holt and Bruce) healthy.

My Pick: Rams


New York Jets (3-10, 0-7 away) at Miami (6-7, 3-3 home):
Ok, it’s official. The Jets now have nothing to win or lose for after their victory last week over the Raiders. They are awful, but not awful enough to be in the race for Reggie Bush. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have played pretty well lately, and pulled off that stunning upset over the Chargers last week. The Dolphins should be able to come out on top here, especially considering the Jets’ 0-7 mark on the road…

My Pick: Dolphins

Pittsburgh (8-5, 4-2 away) at Minnesota (8-5, 5-1 home):
The Vikings have put together quite the streak over the past month or so, winning six straight games and climbing to within a game of Chicago and the NFC North lead. It hasn’t always been pretty, but these Vikings have shown late-game poise uncharacteristic of Mike Tice’s teams, as they have won every close game that they have been in, always coming through down the stretch. They have pulled off this streak because of an improved running game (Moore and Bennett have been an effective tandem), solid if not spectacular quarterbacking from Brad Johnson (who won’t always win you the game but will never lose it for you) and a solid secondary led by safety Darren Sharper. The most important factor here though is that the Steelers need this game more than the Vikings do. With a loss, Minnesota is still in the hunt for a wildcard spot (or even the division title if another of my predictions plays out) but if the Steelers lose on Sunday, their season is finished. One would think that the Vikings are due to lose a game, and I think they won’t be able to stop Pittsburgh on Sunday, even if they are playing at home and haven’t lost there in what seems like years. I think the Steelers will find themselves playing their kind of game; a low scoring affair in which they will, rather than trying to attack the Vikings’ secondary with Rothlisberger’s injured throwing hand, pound the 17th ranked rush defense of the Vikes using a mix and match combination of Jerome Betis and Willie Parker and will come out on top.

My Pick: Steelers end the Vikings’ winning streak
My fourth SAFE PICK


Carolina (9-4, 4-2 away) at New Orleans (3-10, 1-5 home):
After the egg they laid last week against Tampa, I’m not sure what to expect from the Panthers. The Saints may come out with an inspired effort now that Jim Haslett has finally benched Aaron Brooks. Todd Bouman is not the most talented QB in the world but with the kind of WR playmakers this team has in Joe Horn and Donte Stall’worth he should be able to produce a few big plays. But, I think DeShaun Foster is going to have a huge game for the Panthers, as he is facing the Saints’ 29th ranked rushing defense, and that should prove to be the difference…

My Pick: Panthers

San Francisco (2-11, 0-6 away) at Jacksonville (9-4, 4-2 home):
I think that the 49ers are going to compete in this one. The Jaguars know that they can coast the rest of the way and it would be easy for them to look past this game. Still, they should be able to regain their footing down the stretch and hold on to win.
I could and probably would pick this upset if the 49ers had some semblance of a running or passing game and had a secondary that could hold opposing QBs under 300 yards consistently (Trent Dilfer and Kyle Orton don’t count).

My Pick: Jaguars avoid the upset

Arizona (4-9, 2-4 away) at Houston (1-12, 1-5 home):
Anybody who watched or saw highlights of the 4th quarter of the Texans/Titans game last week agrees with me: The Texans are giving games away; blatantly losing on purpose so they can get the #1 pick and Reggie Bush. I was saying this before last week’s game but Kris Brown’s last second 30 yard FG attempt, that would have tied the game, confirmed it for me. It missed not only the uprights but also the net in back of the uprights. It was kicked so low that it looked like he kicked a soccer ball on goal and toe-balled it. This coming from a kicker who over the course of his entire career before this game had missed only one kick from 30 yards away or closer and the one he missed was blocked! The Texans seriously need to be careful or the league may investigate…They shouldn’t have any trouble losing this game though. Their 25th ranked passing defense is perfectly designed for the Cardinals to tear apart with their potent aerial attack.

My Pick: Cardinals should blow out the Texans
My fifth SAFE PICK

Cincinnati (10-3, 5-1 away) at Detroit (4-9, 3-4 home):
The Bengals and Carson Palmer, after nearly losing to Cleveland should look much sharper against the Lions this week, and won’t be looking past this game. And really, the Lions are pretty awful. They can’t stop anyone; not even the Packers. And have they tried looking at a third option at QB? Neither Garcia or Harrington can throw the ball anymore (I’m not sure Harrington ever could).

My Pick: Bengals
My sixth SAFE PICK

Cleveland (4-9, 1-6 away) at Oakland (4-9, 2-4 home):
Sure Cleveland is only 1-6 on the road, but as the season has progressed, the Raiders have gotten worse while the Browns seem much improved, especially after the QB switch from Trent Dilfer to rookie Charlie Frye. Cleveland nearly beat the Bengals last week, while the Raiders lost embarrassingly to an absolutely abysmal Jets team. Romeo Crenel is making a lot of progress with this team and they may be competing for a playoff spot come this time next year…

My Pick: Browns

Dallas (8-5, 3-3 away) at Washington (7-6, 4-2 home):
These two teams are very evenly matched. They both have had inconsistent QB play throughout the season and both rely heavily on defense and special teams to win games. However, the Redskins have much more to lose in this game as they can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye with a loss. I think the Cowboys are likely the better team, if only because they have a better coach in Bill Parcells, but I can’t see them stealing this one on the road from a Washington team that is playing with a hunger fueled by desperation.

My Pick: Redskins

Atlanta (8-5, 4-2 away) at Chicago (9-4, 6-1 home):
I’ve said it before; I’ll say it again: The Bears are overrated!! Yes their defense is likely the best in the league, but at some point to win in the NFL you need to do something on offense (Please don’t bring up the Ravens’ argument because let me remind you that they had Jamal Lewis (in his prime) and Shannon Sharpe). Kyle Orton is the worst rated QB in the league, and has thrown for 200 yards or more twice in 15 games. You can expect little to nothing from this team on offense; they rely completely on their defense and special teams to win games for them. This game will be, as all Bears’ games end up being, a low-scoring affair. I think Jim Mora will take note though of how the Steelers counteracted the Bears’ quickness up front by giving more carries to power back Jerome Betis with great results. Expect the Falcons to try to do the same thing by giving more carries to their power back T.J Duckett. I know I have ridden my “wintry weather theory” for much of this year but I’m abandoning it for this game. The Falcons and ailing QB Michael Vick probably won’t be able to get too much done through the air up in snowy Chicago but I expect them to be able to grind out just enough points on the scoreboard to come out on top. The Bears can’t win every close game can they? And the Falcons obviously need this game far more than Chicago does as they are in a fierce race for a wildcard spot at the moment…

My Pick: Falcons make a statement in their bid for a wildcard spot

Finally we arrive at the Monday Night game…(unfortunately)

Green Bay (3-10, 1-6 away) at Baltimore (4-9, 4-2 home):
Why does it seem like all of the Monday Night match-ups suck? Who wants to watch Kyle Boller and Brett Favre compete to see who can throw the most interceptions? I know I don’t…I’ll take the Pack here just because they are coming off a victory last week against the Lions but it also wouldn’t surprise me if the game ended on an errant Favre pass being taken back for a touchdown.

My Pick: Packers…I guess…I have to pick somebody…