A Neutering Negated...

Last Week:
13-3 (overall)
4-0 (safe picks)

That second number is a bit deceiving as most of you reading this are aware. The pick that I deemed to be the safest (and gambled the fate of my manhood on) was Miami beating Buffalo. As you all know, the Bills and the second-worst quarterback in the league (QB rating-wise), J.P. Losman, ran out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter against a Dolphins defense still nursing their hangovers from a long night of partying in Miami Beach. Once they woke up, the Bills couldn’t even get a sniff of field goal range, let alone the end zone, but the damage had already been done and it looked like I was going to be singing soprano for the rest of my life. Miami couldn’t get anything done through the air and went into the 4th quarter down 23-3. My balls were as good as busted…But, backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels (who came in after starter Gus Ferrotte got knocked out of the game in the 3rd quarter) re-ignited the Dolphins offense, throwing for nearly 300 yards in less than a half, culminating in a 4th and goal touchdown catch by Chris Chambers that rallied Miami to the 24-23 victory, and thus my manhood lives on…barely. Anyway, let’s get to this week’s picks:

New England (7-5, 3-3 away) at Buffalo (4-8, 4-2 home):
Buffalo is a tough place to play this time of the year, but unfortunately for the Bills, The Patriots will be quite comfortable in the winter environment (unlike the Panthers 2 weeks ago). Plus, I expect Buffalo to be a bit demoralized after blowing a 23-3 lead to the Dolphins last week. Expect a good day (as usual) from Brady, and a finally healthy Corey Dillon to tear up the Bills’ 31st ranked run defense.

My Pick: Patriots
My First Safe Pick Of The Week (sorry, I’m not wagering my balls this time)

Cleveland (4-8, 1-5 away) at Cincinnati (9-3, 4-2 home):
The Bengals made a huge statement last week; they beat the Steelers on the road and are pretty much on cruise control in the division race. Now, they return home to face the Browns and look to continue their crazy scoring spree. This could get ugly…

My Pick: Bengals
My Second Safe Pick Of The Week

Houston (1-11, 0-6 away) at Tennessee (3-9, 2-4 home):
If the Texans are going to win another game this year, this looks like it would be it. At this point though it is in their best interest to keep losing. Maybe drafting Reggie Bush can revitalize this franchise?

My Pick: Titans

St. Louis (5-7, 2-4 away) at Minnesota (7-5, 4-1 home):
The Rams are only 2-4 on the road and are starting a rookie at QB against a solid Vikings secondary. I expect the Vikes to keep on rolling their way towards a playoff berth. No one is taking this team very seriously but they have a great shot at a wildcard berth thanks to a weak second half schedule…

My Pick: Vikings
My Third Safe Pick Of The Week

Oakland (4-8, 2-4 away) at New York Jets (2-10, 2-3 home):
In a game between two struggling teams, I’ll go with the one with some semblance of offensive talent. If the Jets couldn’t beat the Saints at home, I find it hard to believe that they can beat anyone…even with potential “wintry weather” on their side.

My Pick: Raiders

Chicago (9-3, 3-2 away) at Pittsburgh (7-5, 3-3 home):
The Steelers’ backs are against the wall; a loss this week and their season is essentially over. I expect an inspired effort from their offensive line (which has underperformed as of late) and thus the return of the effective ground game that they have missed in recent weeks. I also feel that Chicago is due to lose a game…

My Pick: Steelers

Tampa Bay (8-4, 4-2 away) at Carolina (9-3, 5-1 home):
Before last week, I was skeptical about the Panthers’ running game but against the Falcons the recently promoted Deshaun Foster eased my doubts by tearing up Atlanta’s defense on the ground to the tune of 131 yards on 24 carries. They also impressed me with the ease with which they shut down Michael Vick both on the ground and through the air. Expect more of the same against the Bucs at home (who could barely beat the Saints) as the Panthers continue to make their case for being the best team in the NFC…The question is can they stop Shaun Alexander and the Seahawks in Seattle come playoff time?

My Pick: Panthers

Indianapolis (12-0, 6-0 away) at Jacksonville (9-3, 4-1 home):
It seems as though every analyst thinks this could be an upset win by the Jags but they are scared to pick it so they are just taking the middle road and saying that it will be a close game. I disagree. I think the Colts will win this one fairly easily as David Garrard really has yet to prove anything to me other than that he can beat the Cleveland Browns and I’m not sure Jacksonville’s D is as good as they appear to be statistically(5th in the league). They seem to have a habit of letting every team they play back into the game in the 4th quarter…

My Pick: Colts
My Fourth Safe Pick Of The Week

New York Giants (8-4, 2-3 away) at Philadelphia (5-7, 4-2 home):
The Giants took control of the division with their victory over Dallas last week and this game should be a bit of a relief for them after two tough games in a row. Unless L.J. Smith can find a way to, by himself, take on all of the roles of his injured compatriots and throw, run and catch at an ALL-Pro level, the Eagles don’t stand a chance…

My Pick: Giants

Washington (6-6, 2-4 away) at Arizona (4-8, 2-4 home):
The Redskins dispatched Kurt Warner’s former mediocre team last week; expect them to take care of his current mediocre team this week, even on the road. The ‘skins aren’t out of the hunt yet…Portis and Cartright each rushed for over 100 yards against the Rams last week and I expect another good game on the ground, facing the 19th ranked rush defense of the Cardinals. Warner will probably put up good numbers again this week, but expect the Redskins to hold him out of the endzone for the most part as they have much more to play for, and are far from out in the NFC wildcard race...

My Pick: Redskins

San Francisco (2-10, 0-5 away) at Seattle (10-2, 6-0 home):
I’m going to have to go out on a limb here and say that I don’t expect any Seahawk starters to still be in the game by the time the 4th quarter rolls around…

My Pick: Seahawks in another laugher
For the hell of it, let’s add a 5th safe pick this week

Kansas City (8-4, 3-3 away) at Dallas (7-5, 4-2 home):
The game may be in Dallas and the Cowboys may have a solid defense (6th in the league) but I’m not convinced that the Chiefs’ offense can be stopped by any defense short of the Bears the way they played last week against Denver. Plus Bledsoe has looked absolutely awful as of late…

My Pick: Chiefs pull of the upset

Baltimore (4-8, 0-6 away) at Denver (9-3, 6-0 home):
This one looks to be another no-brainer. The Broncos will take care of business at home and stay one game up in the division race…

My Pick: Broncos
I guess we can add a 6th safe pick…this one’s too obvious to ignore as well.

Miami (5-7, 2-4 away) at San Diego (8-4, 4-2 home):
Sage Rosenfels looked pretty good last week (as previously mentioned) and I expect him to have another big week passing the ball. However, at home I don’t think that the Chargers’ offense can be stopped by anyone…

My Pick: Chargers in a shootout

Detroit (4-8, 1-4 away) at Green Bay (2-10, 1-4 home):
If Brett Favre and the Pack are going to win another game this year than this would be it. The Lions, no matter who is starting at QB, are awful…

My Pick: Packers

New Orleans (3-9, 2-4 away) at Atlanta (7-5, 3-3 home):
This Monday night match-up looks on paper to be pretty one-sided. I have a feeling that it’s going to be closer than people expect though as the Saints tend to compete in games that they have no business being in. I for-see a big day from Aaron Brooks and Joe Horn, but I think in the end, Michael Vick and the Falcons will hold on for the victory and keep pace for a wild card spot…

My Pick: Falcons in a surprisingly close game