Certain Uncertainty...

There are only three certainties in life: Death, taxes and the National League will win the World Series this year. That being said, I would rather judge a winner in a wet t-shirt contest between Natalie Portman and Katie Holmes(pre getting knocked up by Tom Cruise) than make a prediction on this year’s National League Championship Series between the Astros and Cardinals.
On the surface this looks to be a one-sided series. The Cardinals appear to be a well-oiled machine, a locomotive incapable of being derailed. Sure things may have looked that way last year, and Houston stretched the series to seven games, but that was only because Carlos Beltran was hitting every pitch he saw out of the ballpark. Last time I checked he now has a locker next to Mike Piazza in the Mets’ locker room. The player that has carried this franchise offensively for the last decade, Jeff Bagwell, has finally seen injuries and age catch up with him, playing in only 39 games this year and batting .250 with 3 homeruns and 19 RBIs. Meanwhile, the player that has been the offensive leader of the Cardinals ever since he broke in as a rookie five years ago had another MVP-caliber year, batting .330 with 38 doubles, 41 homeruns and 117 RBIs. Take a look at the overall statistics during the regular season and it would seem ludicrous to even consider picking against St. Louis. They finished 11 games ahead of Houston, with 100 wins to the Astros’ 89. Head to head in the regular season it wasn’t even close. The Cardinals won the season series 11-5.
What this comparison fails to take into consideration is that Houston still finished with the third best record in the NL and ended up only one game behind the Braves for the second best record in the league. Furthermore, the Astros had an abysmal start to the season and played the first two months of the year like a AA team( or almost as bad as the Kansas City Royals). They had to recover from a 15-30 start to make the playoffs, no easy task. 11 of the 16 games that the two teams played against each other this season were during the first three months of the season. The Astros played their best ball during the second half of the season, and in the five games that they played in September they went 3-2 against the Cardinals. They may not have Carlos Beltran suiting up for them anymore but they do have a new emerging star who finished with far superior stats than Beltran this year, Morgan Ensberg(.283 BA 36 HRs,101 RBIs). Their new sparkplug at the top of the lineup didn’t hurt either. Willy Taveras finished the year with a .291 BA and 34 stolen bases. Throw in 26 HRs apiece from Craig Biggio and Jason Lane as well as 24 from Lance Berkman(who had an off-year coming off of an injury) and you seem to have a pretty capable offense: a consistent leadoff hitter and several guys with power in the middle of the lineup to knock him in.
Then again the Cardinals, even without All-star/Gold-glover/perennial MVP candidate Scott Rolen manning third base and the cleanup spot in the order, have a far superior offense. Pujols is a much more threatening hitter than Ensberg or Berkman. They have a pesky leadoff hitter in David Eckstein, who batted .294 with a .363 OBP but more importantly saw 4 pitches per plate appearance. Their number two hitter, Mark Grudzielanek also had a consistent year, bating .294 with a .336 OBP. And they of course still have Jim Edmonds, who like Berkman had an off year(batting only .263 with 89 RBIs), but still knocked 29 balls out of the park. Throw in Larry Walker and Reggie Sanders, two dangerous veterans who have 30+ homerun power, but were injured for much of this year and you have a pretty potent lineup. Proving my point, so far in the postseason Sanders has 12 RBIs, including two more in St Louis’ Game 1 victory in the NLCS. The Cardinals despite all of their injuries, scored 805 runs during the regular season finishing third in runs scored behind the Reds and Phillies. In contrast, the Astros scored only 693 runs, and were outscored by every team in the NL Central except for the Pirates.
On the other hand, the Astros only allowed 609 runs, the fewest in the National League. They possess the two most important elements in the playoffs: a dominating trio of starting pitchers and a dependable closer. Andy Pettite(17-9 2.39 ERA), Roger Clemens(13-8 1.87 ERA) and Roy Oswalt(20-12 2.94 ERA) without a doubt make up the best starting pitching trio in the league, all three with ERAs under 3 and over 200 innings pitched. Clemens would be without a doubt the Cy Young winner this year if Houston hadn’t been shut out 5 times in games he started and given him next to nothing for run support all year long. Meanwhile Brad Lidge has been absolutely filthy closing games out(42 saves 2.29 ERA, 103 Ks in 70 innings pitched). This combination of great starting and finishing pitching proved to be more than enough in Game 2 as the Astros evened the series with 7 strong innings from Oswalt(only allowing one run on a solo HR by Pujols) and a 2 inning save by Lidge.
However, lets go back to how the Cardinals won Game 1 for a minute. They got a pretty stellar pitching performance from their ace and likely Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter(21-5 2.83 ERA 7 CGs during the regular season): 8 inning pitched, 5 hits, 2 earned runs. They also have a pretty damn good closer themselves in Jason Isringhausen(39 saves 2.14 ERA and a paltry .202 BAA) who shut the door on Houston in Game 1. The Cardinals’ second and third pitchers, Mark Mulder(16-8 3.64 ERA) and Jeff Suppan(16-10 3.57 ERA) aren’t too shabby either.
So, given the information I’ve just laid out, how can you make a prediction on this series? It is too close to call. These two teams are obviously both far superior to the Angels( who despite MLB’s best efforts to help Chicago become this year’s Boston will prevail against the White Sox) and the NLCS winner will easily defeat them. Just like last year’s ALCS, this year’s NLCS is the real World Series.
You can make a pretty convincing argument for either team. Houston has had Chris Burke( a relatively unheard of rookie utility player) explode for two clutch homeruns in the division series, including a walk-off shot in the 18th inning of Game 4 that ended the Braves’ season. He also drove in a run in the Astros’ Game 2 NLCS win. But St. Louis has the experience, having been to the World Series last year, and has a far superior pitching staff this season. Then again, Astros fans will be sure to point out that the last three World Series winners have been wildcard teams.
So, even after analyzing these two teams to death, I still can’t find any solid reason to pick one team over the other. What I can do though is add two more certainties to my list: This series is without a doubt going seven games….and is going to be pretty damn fun to watch!!