Zany Ramblings Of A Dedicated Basketcase

Super Bowl that pick!

2008-02-03T13:58:00.000-08:00

So here we are: two hours before the ‘Big Game,’ and I have yet to post my pick. I never actually bothered to post my AFC/NFC Championship game picks either, but as you probably guessed, I went 1-1. The truth of the matter is, I do not know what to make of this Giants team. They looked shaky all year, played a great game against the Patriots in Week 17, and suddenly, after two monumental upsets, we have a Super Bowl rematch between New England and New York (N). Both of the Giants’ lines, offensive and defensive, look phenomenal, as one would expect, given that their team has been based around these two areas for several years now, but every other facet of their team has improved significantly in the past month. Their secondary is making plays, no matter who is out there, and Eli Manning made it his New Year’s resolution not to turn the ball over ever again. I suspect that Belichick, given two weeks and the game film from the December match-up, will come up with a defensive game plan involving lots of disguised blitzes that will rattle Eli; I think that if the Patriots’ offensive line (which is the best line they’ve had in the Brady/Belichick era) gives Brady time to throw, Moss will get open deep against New York’s overachieving secondary; I think that the Patriots, on paper, are huge favorites to win this game. But the game is not played on paper, and the Giants have defied my expectations at every turn this postseason. They remind me of that overachieving Panthers team that peaked at just the right time, came into the Super Bowl with a lot of confidence, and almost pulled off the upset. I do believe that the Patriots will win this game, but I cannot say I feel nearly as confident about that fact as one might expect.

My Pick: The Giants cover the spread, and keep this one interesting until the end, but the Patriots prevail (16-0!!!)

Playoff Picks (Take 2)

2008-01-12T11:52:00.000-08:00

Last Week:
Overall: 2-2
SAFE PICKS: 2-1

Seattle (10-6, 3-5 away)
at
Green Bay (13-3, 7-1 home)

I’m standing by the SAFE PICK I used on the Redskins last week. The final score was misleading, as the Redskins fell apart at the end of the game. Anyone who actually watched the fourth quarter knows that they were in great position to win the game and blew it. My point? The Seahawks are who I thought they were. They can’t run the ball, their secondary is suspect, and their passing game is not nearly as good as the numbers indicate. Did I mention that they were terrible on the road this season? The only hope Seattle has of winning this game is if Green Bay’s young players catch a severe case of playoff jitters. But Favre has been here before, and he will lead his team onto the next round.

My Pick: Green Bay makes quick work of Seattle and moves on to face Dallas
SAFE PICK

Jacksonville (11-5, 5-3 away)
at
New England (16-0, 8-0 home)

The Jaguars almost blew their game with Steelers, but held on, thanks to an apparent blown holding call that everyone from Bill Simmons to Skip Bayless is still complaining about. That being said, I’m not buying The Sports Guy’s oversimplified argument that the Patriots have no trouble with one-dimensional offenses and their secondary is suspect just doesn’t do it for me. Jacksonville had more wins against teams with winning records this season than every team except for New England. Their defense has been solid all year…I’m willing to cut them some slack for having one bad quarter. And as for the fact that the Jags are one-dimensional on offense…they’ve relied on the run for the past three seasons, and no team has figured out how to stop it during that time span. Quarterback David Garrard has significantly improved his game this season. If they had any quality receivers, they would be a match-up nightmare for the Patriots. As it is, if they can get on the board early, they can hang with the Patriots for a while. I’m not saying that Jacksonville can beat New England, but I definitely do not see it being a 42-15 game (as Bill Simmons does).

My Pick: Patriots move on and prepare for a rematch with the Colts
SAFE PICK

San Diego (11-5, 4-4 away)
at
Indianapolis (13-3, 6-2 home)

So…the last time these two teams met, Peyton Manning had his worst game as a professional football player, and still had his team in a position to win before Vinatieri missed an easy field goal. Give me one good reason why I should even consider picking the Chargers. They had trouble with the Titans, for God’s sake! Enough already…we’re done here.

My Pick: Colts by a lot…I think Simmons meant to put that 42-15 score under his pick for this game
SAFE PICK

New York Giants (10-6, 7-1 away)
at
Dallas (13-3, 6-2 home)

It’s funny…I always thought the most basic rule to Bill Simmons’ Playoff Manifesto was to never take a shaky quarterback on the road. How he managed to talk himself into Eli Manning here, I’m not really sure. Yes, he looked okay against Tampa Bay, but he didn’t really do that much. The Giants basically relied on their defense and running game. They’re going to need more than that against the Cowboys, because the Cowboys can put up points with the best of them. Do you really want to take Eli Manning in a shootout? The Cowboys are going to put constant pressure on him, unlike the Bucs, who inexplicably let him sit in the pocket for five seconds on every passing down. Unless Jessica Simpson does an impromptu strip show at halftime, I think the Cowboys will be okay…

My Pick: Romo redeems himself, and Eli orders a ticket for the Pats/Colts game

Wild Card Weekend

2007-12-31T09:18:00.001-08:00

Everyone’s favorite sports blogger is back—just in time for the NFL playoffs. You can thank a stubborn tummy-ache and a lack of motivation to finish up my homework for my triumphant return to the blogosphere.

Let’s get things started with the NFC:

Washington Redskins (9-7)
at
Seattle Seahawks (10-6)

The momentum and motivation arguments alone seem like more than enough for me to justify picking the ‘skins here. If you’re still not convinced, consider Seattle’s lack of balance on offense, and the flaws in its defense. The Seahawks cannot run the ball effectively, and it will come back to haunt them in the playoffs, as this deficiency always does, regardless of the team or offensive system. And while Seattle has an exceptional group of linebackers, its secondary is quite suspect, as Chris Redman and the hapless Falcons showed us last week. These Seahawks are merely shadows of their former Super Bowl selves of two seasons ago. The Redskins, on the other hand, have a decent defense, a hard-hitting running game, a passing game that looks surprisingly solid as of late, and everything in the world to play for.

My Pick: Redskins advance to face the Cowboys
SAFE PICK

New York Giants (10-6)
at
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)

Based off of the Giants’ inspired performance against the Patriots last week, and their impressive 7-1 record on the road (tied with Dallas for the best mark in the NFC), this one should be a no-brainer, right? Not so fast. I’m willing to give the G-men a fighting chance in this one, as the Bucs are likely to be a bit out of sync after not playing their offensive starters for much of the last two games after clinching the division title. Still, despite Eli Manning’s success against the Patriots, he has looked awfully shaky during the second half of the season. Even with his inspired, four touchdown effort against New England, he has thrown ten touchdown passes and eleven interceptions over that span, and completed fewer than half of his passes in three of those games. It is also important to note that of the Giants’ seven road wins, only one came against a winning team, and that lone quality win, against the Redskins in Week 3, was more the result of Washington miscues than good play by New York. The Buccaneers aren’t a great team, but they are solid in every facet of the game, on offense, defense and special teams. Jeff Garcia is a more consistent quarterback than Eli Manning, and in a game between two teams with equally solid but not spectacular defenses and equally effective running games, the quarterback play will be the difference.

My Pick: The Bucs advance to play the Packers

And now, the AFC:

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5)
at
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

The Jaguars have the unfortunate luck to play in the same division as the Indianapolis Colts, and thus are forced to play on the road in the first week of the playoffs. Don’t let the seedings fool you however—this Jacksonville team is better than either of the division winners playing this weekend, and could make some serious noise in this postseason. The Steelers have teased us all year long, looking great at times (beating the Browns twice) and terrible at others (losing to the Cardinals). Roethlisberger has had perhaps his best season as a Steeler, but the defense has been inconsistent and the overall intensity level of the team has not been entirely reliable from week to week. The Jaguars, led by the vaunted running duo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, a smash-mouth defense (which held Big Ben to his least accurate passing game of the season) and emerging quarterback David Garrard, already demonstrated how to beat the Steelers in Week 15, and in the playoff rematch the Steelers will be without starting running back Willie Parker. The Steelers will need nothing less than divine intervention to win this game, and they already cashed in all of their help from God for the next decade when they won the Super Bowl two years ago.

My Pick: Jaguars move on, and get to play with the big boys
SAFE PICK

Tennessee Titans (10-6)
at
San Diego Chargers (11-5)

In my mind, Tennessee should not be playing right now. The Browns were a better team over the course of the season, and the Titans snuck into the playoffs only because they faced a Colts team that did not play its starters for the majority of the game. Did I mention that they still barely won the game against a group of backups? The Chargers, led by LaDanian Tomlinson, will manhandle the Titans in this game, but don’t be fooled—they’re not nearly as good a team as they will appear to be against this undeserving opponent.

My Pick: Chargers advance past a group of players and coaches that should be watching the game from their living rooms.
SAFE PICK

That’s all for now. Check back next week and I’ll post my next set of picks…I promise!

Now the World (Series)...

2007-10-24T17:30:00.000-07:00

It’s been a wild postseason so far, and many are expecting the madness to continue in the World Series. Tonight, the Colorado Rockies, winners of 21 of their last 22, face off against the Boston Red Sox, who staged another October comeback to defeat a talented and balanced Indians team in seven games. In Game One tonight at Fenway, the regular and postseason leader in wins, Josh Beckett, will face off against Rockies ace Jeff Francis, who has won his first two postseason starts. With limited time at my disposal, I’m going to spare you the complete position-by-position analysis and get down to business here.
Boston has the two best postseason hitters in the game on their team (Ortiz and Manny) but top to bottom Colorado has a better lineup. That’s not to say (as half the talking heads are) that the Rockies’ lineup is invincible; nor is it to say (as the other half of the talking heads are) that it is overrated; the truth lies somewhere in between. I see the Rockies’ lineup as comparable to the Indians’ lineup. That’s a compliment, but it doesn’t mean that I think they will fare any better against Beckett than the Indians did.
The Red Sox, although I’m not enamored with their rotation as a whole, have a clear advantage in the starting pitching department. The Rockies rotation, top to bottom, is filled with (very slightly) above average pitchers who will struggle to get outs against the heart of the Red Sox order. Yes, they looked great in the NLCS, but it’s one thing for Francis, with his league average regular season level ERA and WHIP, to dominate the Diamondbacks, with a leadoff hitter who batted below .240 and whose best batter is pitcher Micah Owings; it’s quite another to do it against a team with the best 3/4 combo in all of baseball. I expect the Red Sox to hit Colorado starting pitching early and often, beginning tonight against Francis. Of course, once the Rockies get past Beckett (the best big game pitcher in the league), they should be able to do some hitting of their own. Schilling hardly resembles the dominant pitcher he was in 2004, and Matsuzaka has looked tired and wild during the postseason.
Once the game gets to the later innings, both teams have two solid bullpen pitchers that will hold the opposing offense in check: Okajima and Papelbon for Boston, and Fuentes and Corpas for Colorado.
The defensive edge goes to the Rockies, who have quietly played the best defense in all of baseball this year. The Red Sox defense has been quite good as well (far better than it was in ’04), but it will take a hit when the Sawx travel to Colorado and have to play Ortiz in the field, and deal with lead-footed Manny having to cover more ground in left field.
You certainly can’t discount the advantage of a team getting hot during the playoffs (after all, the Cardinals did win it all last year), but Colorado’s long layoff and the way the Red Sox have played over the last three games have nullified that advantage for the Rockies in my estimation. I know that the Rockies took two of three from Boston in July, but that is ancient history. I also seem to recall the Yankees going undefeated against the Tribe during the regular season before being dominated by them in the first round. The bottom line is that this series will boil down to the same thing that it did during the Angels/Sox, Indians/Yankees and Sox/Indians series—starting pitching. Colorado doesn’t have a single starting pitcher that scares me, and I therefore can’t see them winning this series. I see them beating up on Dice-K and avoiding the sweep, but nothing more.

My Prediction: Red Sox in Five

Using a pitching Wedge from the green or How to misplay pocket rockets

2007-10-08T15:52:00.000-07:00

I’m trying to decide whether or not Eric Wedge would make a good poker player. He clearly has “nerves of steel”; his managerial decisions, however, suggest he might be better suited for the roulette table.

I know I’m not the first person to bring this up in a blog post today—everyone from Jon Heyman to Drew Carey thinks that Wedge’s decision to pitch Paul Byrd tonight could end up costing the Indians the game, and possibly the series—but I would like to point out that I saw this moment coming, before the series even began, when the Indians announced the starters for all five games before playing a single inning.

Throwing Sabathia and Carmona in the first two games was, of course, a no-brainer. Having Jake Westbrook pitch Game 3, in Yankee Stadium? That, I’m not so sure about. During two regular season meetings, Yankees hitters crushed just about everything Westbrook threw in their direction, piling up 17 hits (including five home runs) and 12 runs in just 8 2/3 innings. But, as the other possible starter Paul Byrd was also ripped apart by the Yanks in his only start against them (2 IP 7 H 7 R), and the Indians won the first two games of the series after going winless against New York during the regular season, let’s disregard past history and just think about this strategically.

In Game 1, the Tribe threw out Sabathia, a prototypical left-handed power-pitching ace. In Game 2, they pitched Fausto Carmona, a righty sinkerball pitcher who relies on keeping the ball down and off the plate to induce hitters into hitting weak groundballs. 2-0 Indians: So far, so good. Then it gets a little tricky. Normally you would want to start your third best starting pitcher in Game 3 of a playoff series, but you also need to consider the match-ups and your other personnel. Enter Jake Westbrook, another sinkerball pitcher, but with weaker velocity and less control than Carmona. Why would you pitch Carmona Lite after pitching Carmona? It makes no sense to me. The Yankees saw nine innings of hard sinkers in Game 2, and were able to have their plate approach from that game carry over into the next game. When the same pitch that they were looking for in Game 2 was slower and more hittable, the Yankees were, predictably, very successful hitting the ball against Westbrook in Game 3. Why not throw Byrd, a control pitcher who relies on a wide array of off-speed pitches, in Game 3 instead of Westbrook? I’m not saying he’s a Cy Young candidate, or even more than an average pitcher, but he would have at least given the Yankees a different look. And Byrd’s numbers during the regular season (15-8 4.59 ERA 1.39 WHIP) were comparable to Westbrook’s (6-9 4.32 ERA 1.41 WHIP). It’s not like I’m suggesting you not throw Sandy Koufax and vintage Randy Johnson back-to-back (on my all-time fantasy team) just because they’re both left-handed power pitchers. There is little to no drop-off in pitching ability between Westbrook and Byrd, but when Wedge started Westbrook after Carmona, it put Westbrook at an unnecessary disadvantage against a team whose collective batting eyes were already adjusted to hitting his only effective pitch.

Even though I KNEW Westbrook was going to get rocked in Game 3 before the series even began, I would be willing to give Eric Wedge a pass if he would just, even for a moment, consider changing his starter for Game 4. Wedge picking Westbrook over Byrd suggests a blind belief in groundball pitching over flyball pitching (Byrd’s career ground ball to fly ball ratio is less than 1) hindered Wedge’s ability to effectively analyze his team's match-ups, which leads me to believe that he is, despite reports to the contrary, capable of intelligent thought, because in many situations, this would be a sound strategy to follow. But by picking Byrd over Sabathia (and having Carmona as a fall-back plan for Game 5) for Game 4 Wedge has indicated to me that he is a) incapable of distinguishing between talent and mediocrity, b) stubbornly sticking with the game-plan he came up with before the series even started because he’s a republican and hates change, or c) is THAT guy at the poker table who has pocket aces but refuses to bet anyone out because he wants a bigger payoff (i.e. having the optimum setup of Carmona and Sabathia for the first two games of the ALCS). As I can’t come up with any other reasonable excuse for not using your best pitchers to close out a series with a potentially dangerous opponent, I’ll give Wedge the benefit of the doubt and assume that he is looking ahead to the next series. In that case, I see what he’s doing, but I don’t like it. “THAT guy at the poker table” does come away with a big pot about half of the time; the other half of the time, though, he loses big, and often loses it all. I would rather save the roulette strategies for $5 buy-in games with my suitemates, and play the odds when dealing with the fate of a $70 million baseball team, but maybe that’s just me. Of course, this could be a moot point if the Indians “break out the boom sticks” (thanks, Sportscenter) again against Yankees starter Chien-Ming Wang (they torched him for 9 hits and 8 runs in 4 2/3 innings in Game 1), but as a fan of this talented, young Indians squad, I’m not feeling very confident at the moment.

That would be Super...

2007-02-04T13:19:00.000-08:00

And then there were two…

Last Week: 0-2
SAFE PICKS: 0-1

Playoffs: 8-2
SAFE PICKS: 2-1

Chicago (15-3) vs. Indianapolis (15-4)

I’ve heard way too many stories the past two weeks involving Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith’s skin color (as opposed to their coaching abilities), and the futility of the NFC as opposed to the AFC. I can guarantee that the Bears aren’t going to go down quietly. They have a very talented defense, their special teams play has been outstanding and Grossman, regardless of his inconsistency, has the ability to throw the deep ball and a speedy receiver (Bernard Berrian) who can catch it. That being said, the Colts have the weapons to counteract all of the Bears’ strengths. They have a talented and knowledgeable quarterback (Peyton Manning) that utilizes every eligible receiver on the field. They have an offensive line that protects said quarterback extremely well. And now, they have a one-two punch (of speed and power) running game that allows them to mix up their offensive game plan more than they were able to in previous years. The Colts’ run defense has been really solid during the playoffs, now that Bob Sanders is back in the lineup and plugging every running hole. Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson will get some yards but the Colts should be able to keep them reasonably contained. The Colts’ pass defense is pretty solid and they should be able to keep the Bears’ receivers in check…if they can establish a strong pass rush (behind Dwight Freeney). Grossman doesn’t handle the blitz well and I think that it is essential that the Colts put lots of pressure on him.
Bottom line: If the Colts can consistently get pressure on Grossman, the Bears can’t win this game…at least not without a lot of luck. If the Colts allow Grossman time to sit back in the pocket, he will have a lot more success throwing the ball down the field and the Bears will have a chance to win.

My Pick: Peyton shuts up his critics and wins his first Championship

Championship Time

2007-01-21T10:24:00.000-08:00

The days are getting colder and the Super Bowl is getting closer and closer…

Last Week: 4-0
SAFE PICKS: 0-0

Playoffs: 8-0
SAFE PICKS: 2-0

New Orleans (10-6, 6-2 away)
at
Chicago (13-3, 6-2 home)

It’s in Chicago, the strength of the Bears’ offense is their deep passing game and New Orleans’ secondary is weak…on paper, the Bears look to have the edge. The Saints feel like a team of destiny though and I think that they are going to keep marching…all the way to Disney World.

My Pick: Saints secure a spot in the Super Bowl
SAFE PICK

New England (12-4, 7-1 away)
at
Indianapolis (12-4, 8-0 home)

Is this finally the Colts’ year? This is the weakest Patriots team in recent memory. They were very fortunate to win last week and will need more luck and some help from Peyton Manning to make it back to the Super Bowl. Still, I’m not convinced by the Colts’ defense or Manning’s performance during the playoffs.

My Pick: The Patriots will find a way to pull this one out

Round 2: 2.0

2007-01-14T07:57:00.000-08:00

Seattle (9-7, 4-4 away)
at
Chicago (13-3, 6-2 home)

The Seahawks haven’t been able to gel this year. Their offense seems stagnant and their defense is riddled by injuries. The only way that they win this one is if Grossman has another meltdown, which is possible.

My Pick: DA Bears

New England (12-4, 7-1 away)
at
San Diego (14-2, 8-0 home)

One thing’s for sure…Belichick is going to stack the line to subdue Tomlinson. If the Chargers are going to win this game, Philip Rivers needs to come up huge for them. I’m hesitant to put that much faith in an untested player against a defensive mastermind, so I’ll take the Patriots here, in a close one.

My Pick: Pats pull it out in the 4th quarter

Round 2...

2007-01-13T14:23:00.000-08:00

Last Week: 4-0
SAFE PICKS: 2-0

Indianapolis (12-4, 4-4 away)
At
Baltimore (13-3, 7-1 home)

Baltimore’s defense is pretty damn good but now that the pressure has eased on Peyton Manning (as they are the #3 seed, playing on the road), will he able to come through? I think he’s too good and too dedicated a player to not find a way to overcome his playoff misfortunes.

My Pick: A Great offense beats a great defense

Philadelphia (10-6, 5-3 away)
at
New Orleans (10-6, 4-4 home)

Someone’s Cinderella story is about to come to an end. I think it will be the Eagles’. Jeff Garcia has played really well but, if the game turns into a shootout, he can’t compete with Drew Brees.

My Pick: Saints come marching [o]n…

Life on the Wild Side...(Birthday Edition)

2007-01-07T10:02:00.000-08:00

Happy Birthday to me—I have to miss the Patriots game because I am working the scoreboard for a basketball game. Oh well. I guess I will just have to drown my sorrows with some legal fruity mixed drinks later on tonight…

New York Jets (10-6, 6-2 away)
at
New England (12-4, 5-3 home)

The Patriots are too talented and battle-tested to lose at home to a first-year coach whose team over-achieved to get here. Brady will play well and the defense will play even better. Sorry Pennington, Coles, Mangini and co…your impressive season is about to end.

My Pick: Patriots eliminate their AFC East rivals
SAFE PICK

New York Giants (8-8, 5-3 away)
at
Philadelphia (10-6, 5-3 home)

The Giants’ secondary is awful. Jeff Garcia and the reinvigorated Eagles will light the G-men up through the air. And Brian Westbrook will give them trouble all day as well. On the other side of the ball, Brian Dawkins and the Eagles pass defense will shut down Eli Manning with ease. Even if Tiki Barber has another 200 yard rushing game, the Giants will still lose this game…

My Pick: The Giants’ disappointing season comes to an end
SAFE PICK

Life on the Wild Side...

2007-01-06T15:36:00.000-08:00

I know I promised an in-depth playoff preview but a lot happened in between then and now. As I have run out of time, I will simply give you my picks for tonight’s wildcard games.

Last Week: 11-5
(SAFE PICKS: 2-3)

Regular Season: 148-108
(SAFE PICKS: 58-37)

Kansas City (9-7, 3-5 away)
at
Indianapolis (12-4, 8-0 home)

The Chiefs are lucky to be in the playoffs but they have Larry Johnson, one of the best running backs in the league, and thus have a chance to exploit the Colts’ fatal weakness—run defense. The problem is, if the Colts stack the box to stop the run, will Trent Green be able to lead the Chiefs down the field through the air? I’m not convinced he can. He has looked pretty shaky the last couple weeks. I’ll take the Colts simply because I don’t trust the Chiefs’ passing game.

My Pick: Colts win and move to 9-0 at home

Dallas (9-7, 5-3 away)
at
Seattle (9-7, 5-3 home)

This looks like it could be a wild game. With the way that these two defenses have struggled as of late, I expect a pretty high scoring game. Seattle’s secondary is in shambles because of injuries and the Cowboys have completely lost their confidence defensively. Expect big games for Deion Branch and Darrell Jackson, and, on the other side of the field, Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn. It’s going to be close but…

My Pick: I’ll take Seattle here since they have the home-field advantage

A Quick Finale

2006-12-25T21:48:00.000-08:00

Excuse my brevity…I’ve only got a few minutes to make these because I am off to Florida until New Year’s. Expect an in-depth post on the postseason sometime next week…

Last Week: 9-7
(SAFE PICKS: 2-2)

Season: 137-103
(SAFE PICKS: 56-34)

SATURDAY:

New York Giants (7-8, 4-3 away)
at
Washington (5-10, 3-4 home)

The Giants have completely fallen apart. Coughlin has already started packing his bags…

My Pick: Redskins send the G-men packing
SAFE PICK

SUNDAY:

Green Bay (7-8, 4-3 away)
at
Chicago (13-2, 6-1 home)

Has anyone else noticed that the Bears can’t stop anyone anymore? They are headed for serious trouble in their first postseason game. Their defense has really been hurt by injuries and their quarterback situation became even more of a distraction after Griese came in and replaced Grossman late against Detroit. This is the worst “best” team in the NFC in recent memory. There is no way that this team can beat New Orleans in the playoffs. And I doubt that they will beat Brett Favre in possibly his last game when they have nothing to play for.

My Pick: Packers make their case for a wildcard spot

Detroit (2-13, 0-7 away)
at
Dallas (9-5, 4-2 home)

Dallas will have one of their Dr. Jekyll games and beat up on the Lions.

My Pick: Cowboys end the regular season on a high note
SAFE PICK

Miami (6-9, 2-5 away)
at
Indianapolis (11-4, 7-0 home)

The Colts are still vying for a first-round bye and they need to get back on track after that embarrassing loss to Houston.

My Pick: Colts win at home

St. Louis (7-8, 3-4 away)
at
Minnesota (6-9, 3-4 home)

The Rams look like the best of the mess in the scramble for the last NFC wildcard spot. Their offense is always impressive and their spotty defense should be able to do enough to hold down the abysmal Vikings’ offense.

My Pick: Rams win and grab the last playoff spot in the NFC
SAFE PICK

Oakland (2-13, 0-7 away)
at
New York Jets (9-6, 3-4 home)

The Jets didn’t come this far to be stopped by Oakland at home.

My Pick: Jets win and take the last wildcard spot in the AFC
SAFE PICK

Seattle (8-7, 3-4 away)
at
Tampa Bay (4-11, 3-4 home)

The Seahawks need to get their offense going if they are going to have any shot of advancing past the first round of the playoffs. Alexander and Hasselbeck will play for the majority of the game and help the team pick up the win.

My Pick: Seahawks end the season with a win on the road

Cleveland (4-11, 2-5 away)
at
Houston (5-10, 3-4 home)

I’ll take the Texans, who have made great strides this year on offense.

My Pick: Texans pick up their 4th home win

Arizona (5-10, 2-5 away)
at
San Diego (13-2, 7-0 home)

Leinart is out and the Chargers need to win to secure the top seed in the AFC.

My Pick: Chargers beat the Leinart-less Cardinals

Pittsburgh (7-8, 2-5 away)
at
Cincinnati (8-7, 4-3 home)

The Bengals are the better team and their explosive passing game will decimate the Steelers’ shaky secondary. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough for Cincy to make the playoffs.

My Pick: Bengals win but still miss the postseason

New England (11-4, 6-1 away)
at
Tennessee (8-7, 4-3 home)

The Patriots are playing well and can’t be helped or hurt by this game. Thus, the starters won’t be playing much. The Titans will win but their bid for a playoff spot will come up just short.

My Pick: Titans win again but miss the playoffs

Jacksonville (8-7, 2-5 away)
at
Kansas City (8-7, 5-2 home)

The Chiefs are tough to beat at home, and I think that the Jags will be demoralized by their loss to New England last week. Regardless of the outcome, neither of these teams is playoff bound.

My Pick: Chiefs win at home but miss the playoffs

Carolina (7-8, 3-4 away)
at
New Orleans (10-5, 4-3 home)

Since Dallas lost to Philly, the Saints, who clinched the #2 seed, have nothing to play for here. I don’t expect to see much of the first string for the Saints.

My Pick: Panthers win but miss the playoffs on the tiebreaker

Atlanta (7-8, 4-3 away)
at
Philadelphia (8-6, 4-3 home)

The red hot Eagles will be too much for the inconsistent Falcons.

My Pick: Eagles win the NFC East and eliminate the Falcons

Buffalo (7-8, 3-4 away)
at
Baltimore (12-3, 6-1 home)

The Ravens need to win to secure the #2 seed in the AFC. The Bills have played well in the second half of the season but they will come up short in Baltimore.

My Pick: Ravens win and get a first round bye

San Francisco (6-9, 2-5 away)
at
Denver (9-6, 4-3 home)

Jay Cutler is playing well and the ‘9ers pass defense is anything but solid. The Broncos will win and grab a wildcard spot.

My Pick: Broncos win and make the playoffs
SAFE PICK

Stay tuned for my Playoff Preview Post next week…Happy New Year everyone!

Merry Christmas!

2006-12-24T08:29:00.000-08:00

I’m dreaming of a white Christmas…sadly, that dream may not be realized. I can, however, console myself with some enticing Christmas Eve and Christmas day football match-ups…

Last Week: 8-8
(SAFE PICKS: 2-1)

Season: 128-96
(SAFE PICKS: 54-32)

Carolina (6-8, 2-4 away)
at
Atlanta (7-7, 3-4 home)

The Panthers look like a team that has given up. The Falcons may be inconsistent and prone to giving up big plays in the passing game but they will have more energy and desire than their opponents, who will likely be thinking ahead to spending Christmas time with their families.

My Pick: Falcons move above .500 and put themselves in position for a playoff berth
SAFE PICK

Tampa Bay (3-11, 0-7 away)
at
Cleveland (4-10, 2-5 home)

Tim Rattay has a much stronger arm than Bruce Gradikowski and he is just as accurate. Jon Gruden should have made this switch a long time ago because Rattay is the quarterback that can best utilize the Bucs’ speedy receivers. Tampa Bay isn’t very good, but they’re not bad enough to go 0-8 on the road and the team has to win a game in sub-freezing temperatures eventually. All streaks, good and bad, must come to an end, and Cleveland doesn’t have the kind of running game that is needed to dominate in wintry conditions. Therefore, I will take the team with the hot offense...

My Pick: Rattay and Galloway lift Tampa Bay to victory on the road

Washington (5-9, 2-5 away)
at
St. Louis (6-8, 3-4 home)

The Redskins, especially Ladell Betts and their front defensive line, have played well lately, but the Rams have desperation on their side. They are still alive in the playoff race and will not let the ‘skins stand in their way.

My Pick: Rams win at home
SAFE PICK

Baltimore (11-3, 5-2 away)
at
Pittsburgh (7-7, 5-2 home)

The Steelers are still alive in the playoff race, and honestly, if they win their next two games, have a real shot at stealing the last wildcard spot. They will be excited for another shot at a team that embarrassed them the last time around.

My Pick: Steelers defeat the Ravens at home
SAFE PICK

Indianapolis (11-3, 4-3 away)
at
Houston (4-10, 2-4 home)

This one will be closer than you think…but the Colts won’t let home-field advantage slip away from them.

My Pick: Colts hang on to win on the road

Cincinnati (8-6, 4-3 away)
at
Denver (8-6, 3-3 home)

Jay Cutler looked really good last week. The Broncos certainly made the right decision when they made the switch from Plummer to Cutler. That being said, I still like the Bengals here. I know they laid an egg last week against the Colts, but their offense can score anytime they want against any defense when they are playing well. Denver’s defense has been pretty shaky during the second half of the season and although they have looked better the last few weeks, they can’t shut down all of Cincy’s playmakers. Of course, the Bengals’ defense is even worse, so expect this one to be a shootout…

My Pick: Bengals win a wild one on the road

Tennessee (7-7, 3-4 away)
at
Buffalo (7-7, 4-3 home)

I really want to apply my “wintry weather” theory from yesteryear, but none of these games seem to lend themselves to it. Tennessee’s offense is built around the run and they find a way to grind out games. Buffalo’s offense has actually shifted more towards the passing game with Losman picking up his game the last few weeks and developing a rapport with receiver Lee Evans. This one’s a toss-up but I’ll take Vince Young and the Titans, who don’t know how to lose right now, against the Bills, who can’t stop the run.

My Pick: Travis Henry and Young run all over the Bills

Chicago (12-2, 6-1 away)
at
Detroit (2-12, 2-5 home)

Chicago has everything sewn up and their defense played shoddily last week. This is an upset waiting to happen.

My Pick: Lions knock off the Bears at home

New Orleans (9-5, 5-2 away)
at
New York Giants (7-7, 3-4 home)

The Giants are way too inconsistent and make far too many mistakes to be a playoff team, regardless of how talented they are. The Saints are still fighting for a first-round bye and will be motivated to reassert themselves after an embarrassing loss at Washington last week. Look for a huge day from Drew Brees and the Saints offense. The Giants will keep it close for a while, but will fall apart in the fourth quarter.

My Pick: Saints maim Giants’ playoff chances

New England (10-4, 5-1 away)
at
Jacksonville (8-6, 6-1 home)

The Jaguars are in desperate need of a victory but their inconsistency will do them in. Their running game is superb but quarterback David Garrard makes far too many mistakes for this team to make the playoffs. Their defense plays really well at times, but at others, looks ordinary. The Patriots generate a lot of turnovers and should be able to score enough points to defeat the Jaguars.

My Pick: Pats end the Jags’ playoff dreams

Arizona (4-10, 1-5 away)
San Francisco (6-8, 4-3 home)

Frank Gore is a great running back, one of if not the best back in the NFC. The problem with the ‘9ers though is that Alex Smith doesn’t generate quite enough offense through the air. This team doesn’t have a go-to receiver and this is something that the team needs to address during the off-season. I predict that Matt Leinart and the Cardinals’ explosive passing game will go up early and the ‘9ers will struggle to come back.

My Pick: The ‘9ers go the way of Gore’s presidency

San Diego (12-2, 5-2 away)
at
Seattle (8-6, 5-2 home)

Seattle is far too talented to be struggling like they are right now. They will break out of it and I think it will happen during this game. This offense, when it gets things together, has the ability to score on anyone. The Chargers are bound to have a letdown game eventually, even though the race for the top seed is still on, and I think that this might be the game where they are outplayed by a team that, on paper, they should beat. Can Seattle really lose three games at home this year after their dominating home-field edge a year ago? Not if Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck have any say in it.

My Pick: The Seahawks start playing like they should and the Chargers can’t match their intensity

And the Christmas Day games:

Philadelphia (8-6, 4-3 away)
at
Dallas (9-5, 4-2 home)

The NFC East title is still up for grabs and the Eagles have played really well under Jeff Garcia. I think they have been playing a bit over their heads though. The Cowboys have the better team and it will show on Monday. Their punishing running attack (led by Marion Barber) will punish the Eagles’ weak run defense and Romo will make enough plays through the air to offset Jeff Garcia. I still think that the Eagles could grab a wildcard spot but the division title will belong to the Cowboys.

My Pick: Cowboys secure the division title

New York Jets (8-6, 5-2 away)
at
Miami (6-8, 4-3 home)

The Jets have the Dolphins’ number and they need this win to stay on track for a playoff berth. Miami will keep it close for most of the game but Pennington and the Jets will take control in the fourth quarter and cruise to victory.

My Pick: Jets stay in position for a wildcard berth

And that’s all she wrote…
Merry Christmas everyone!!!

An Early Stocking Stuffer (or two)

2006-12-20T20:08:00.000-08:00

It’s the stretch run and I’m slumping again…I guess I just place too much confidence in the better-than-average-team’s ability to beat teams that are more talented than they are when they have more on the line…cough…Bengals and Chiefs…cough…
Anyway, let’s put all that behind us and get this holiday weekend started off right…

Minnesota (6-8, 3-4 away)
at
Green Bay (6-8, 2-5 home)

Someway, somehow, Green Bay still has a shot at a playoff berth. A lot would have to go their way for it to happen but they have a shot…and what about the Vikes, who also have a shot at being 8-8? Well, their pass defense is inconsistent and their passing game stinks. Despite Green Bay’s confounding struggles at Lambeau this season, I’ll go with Favre in what could possibly be his last home game.

My Pick: Favre wows the home crowd and keeps his team’s playoff hopes alive
SAFE PICK

And the Christmas Eve Eve game…

Kansas City (7-7, 2-5 away)
at
Oakland (2-12, 2-5 home)

If the Chiefs don’t win this game, it would be embarrassing. I’m a little worried though because they haven’t shown a pulse since that OT loss in Cleveland.

My Pick: Chiefs keep their slim playoff hopes alive

Just Made It In Time...

2006-12-18T17:39:00.000-08:00

Whoops…it’s eight o’clock. Which means that there is only half an hour before the Monday Night game starts.

In a battle of high octane passing games, I’ll give the Bengals the edge. Rudi Johnson is a much more reliable runner than Joseph Addai or Dominick Rhodes and the Colts’ run defense, as evidenced by their ugly loss to the run-heavy Jaguars last week. And Carson Palmer has been playing much better than Peyton Manning (5 TDs and 6 INTs in his last 5 games) as of late. I do think that Manning will play better today—I don’t expect much in the way of pass defense from either team—but I think that the Bengals’ running game will be too much for the Colts to handle.

My Pick: Bengals win a shootout on the road

Sunday? How the hell is it already Sunday?

2006-12-17T10:49:00.000-08:00

I’m running a little low on time here as I woke up at Noon…Let’s save the formalities and get to the picks…

Last Week: 8-8
(SAFE PICKS: 1-4)

Season: 120-88
(SAFE PICKS: 52-31)

Miami (6-7, 2-4 away)
at
Buffalo (6-7, 3-3 home)

Both teams have been hot but I will take the team with the more dominant defense, Miami, to shut down Buffalo’s offense and win this game on the road.

My Pick: Miami moves to .500 on the season

Tampa Bay (3-10, 0-6 away)
at
Chicago (11-2, 5-1 home)

Chicago has shown this season that they are capable of winning or losing against any team in the National Football League. That being said, Grossman looked solid last week and he is facing, at home, one of the worst pass defenses in the league. I’ll take Chicago in a blowout.

My Pick: Bears win big and Grossman’s critics quiet down (for now)
SAFE PICK

Detroit (2-11, 0-6 away)
at
Green Bay (5-8, 1-5 home)

Ok, so the Lions haven’t won in Green Bay in their last gazillion games there. Do you really trust the Packers, who are just 1-5 at home this season, to continue this streak? I don’t…but I trust them more than I trust the Lions, 0-6 on the road this season, to win. And I’d like to see Favre finish off the season strong…we’ll see what happens…

My Pick: Packers find a way to finally win a home game

Jacksonville (8-5, 2-4 away)
at
Tennessee (6-7, 3-3 home)

The Titans have been playing some great football lately but I think that the Jaguars have a great match-up here. Jacksonville boasts the best running game in the AFC and the Titans are 28th in the league in run defense. Assuming that Jacksonville’s pass defense doesn’t pull another Mr. Hyde, the Jaguars should be able to take a short road trip and win, keeping themselves in the driver’s seat for a playoff berth.

My Pick: Jaguars run their way to victory in Tennessee

New York Jets (7-6, 4-2 away)
at
Minnesota (6-7, 3-3 home)

Interestingly, although the Vikings have the worse record, they have the better shot at making the playoffs at this point. The Jets have to compete with the red-hot Bengals and the dangerous Jaguars, who decimated Indianapolis last week. The Vikings are battling a bunch of teams with similar records that are similarly flawed. That being said, the Jets are, without a doubt, the better team. They have a solid quarterback, solid receivers and a similarly talented defense. The Vikings have a good running game and a good defense but their passing game leaves a lot to be desired. If they fall behind, it will be difficult to come back. If they can keep it close, anything’s possible.

My Pick: Jets keep their playoff hopes alive by beating the Vikings

Houston (4-9, 2-5 away)
at
New England (9-4, 4-3 home)

After being embarrassed by the Dolphins last week in a shutout loss, the Patriots are going to be out for blood. I’d hate to be in the Texans’ shoes right now…they are in for a long day on Sunday…

My Pick: Patriots blow out the Texans
SAFE PICK

Washington (4-9, 1-5 away)
at
New Orleans (9-4, 4-2 home)

Are the Saints the sentimental favorite to win the NFC or are they actually the best team? After they went into Dallas and feasted on the Cowboys’ defense last week, I may have to go with the latter. I was thoroughly impressed. And, this team seems to be peaking at the right time, three weeks from the start of the playoffs. Oh, so you want to know if they will beat Washington and their abysmal pass defense at home this week? The word “duh” comes to mind…

My Pick: Saints improve to 5-2 at home
SAFE PICK

Pittsburgh (6-7, 1-5 away)
at
Carolina (6-7, 4-3 home)

Last year’s Super Bowl champs against SI’s NFC pick to reach the Super Bowl this season…my, how the mighty have fallen. The difference between these two teams is that Carolina still has a shot at the playoffs while the Steelers assuredly do not. Will that be enough to propel the Panthers to victory? Well, the Steelers’ secondary has looked pretty bad this year and backup QB Chris Weinke threw for 423 yards last week. If he can cut down on the turnovers, I think that Carolina can pull this one out. Weinke does a much better job of spreading the ball around than Delhomme, who tends to key in on Steve Smith and stubbornly throws into triple coverage.

My Pick: Panthers pounce on the Steelers and get the win

Cleveland (4-9, 2-4 away)
at
Baltimore (10-3, 5-1 home)

This looks like an easy pick, but the Ravens aren’t nearly as good as their record. Cleveland, if they can put some offense together, could keep this close if the Ravens struggle offensively early on, as they have much of this season.

My Pick: Ravens pull it out in the 4th quarter

Denver (7-6, 4-3 away)
at
Arizona (4-9, 3-4 home)

Was switching QBs a symbolic white flag for the Broncos? I don’t think so, because I truly think that Cutler gives them the best chance to win. Their problem is their defense, which has fallen apart over the last month. I think Cutler can generate 21-28 points of offense this week against an average Cardinals’ defense. Will the defense be able to hold the Cardinals to fewer points than that?

My Pick: Cutler gets his first win with the Broncos

St. Louis (5-8, 2-4 away)
at
Oakland (2-11, 2-4 home)

The Rams are still (sadly) alive in the playoff race and they won’t let the hapless Raiders stand in their way.

My Pick: Rams keep their slim playoff hopes alive

Philadelphia (7-6, 3-3 away)
at
New York Giants (7-6, 3-3 home)

The Eagles can’t stop the run and I can guarantee that the Giants are going to take the ball out of Eli Manning’s hands and have Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs stuff it down the Eagles’ throats. Can a revived Jeff Garcia put together enough of a passing game to beat the Giants? It will be close but I’ll take the home team here.

My Pick: Giants move to 8-6 and put themselves in good position to make the playoffs

Kansas City (7-6, 2-4 away)
at
San Diego (11-2, 6-0 home)

The Chiefs are reeling right now and the Chargers are rolling. And, with the best record in the AFC still up for grabs, you wouldn’t expect a letdown here…or would you? Tomlinson just broke the season TD record, the division title is sewn up and the Chiefs are going to have desperation on their side. Do you really expect Trent Green, Larry Johnson and co. to go down quietly? I don’t…

My Pick: Chiefs shock the Chargers on the road

Whew. That’s it for now. Check back later for the Monday night pick…

Saturday Night's Alright (For Football)

2006-12-16T08:53:00.000-08:00

Here’s my pick for the Saturday game. Check back later tonight or tomorrow morning for my Sunday picks…

Dallas (8-5, 4-3 away)
at
Atlanta (7-6, 3-3 home)

It would be easy to go with the hot team, Atlanta, which is playing at home and needs to win to keep pace for a playoff spot; but, their top two running backs are hobbled and this team is built around the run. It should also be noted that Dallas’s strength is their passing game (led by Romo, Owens and Glenn) and the Falcons’ secondary has been awful all year. Sure the Cowboys looked bad against the Saints last week but they will rebound from that loss. They’re a much better team than the Falcons are.

My Pick: Cowboys and Romo come back strong and move to 9-5

Thirsty Thursday?

2006-12-13T23:48:00.000-08:00

Yet another Thursday game…what gives? Why does the NFL like to put a tired and sloppy product on the field? I’ll give you a hint: It involves something green and I don’t mean Astro Turf.

San Francisco (5-8, 1-5 away)
at
Seattle (8-5, 5-1 home)

Ever since the last-second loss to the Rams a few weeks ago, the ‘9ers have been awful. Their defense has fallen apart and Alex Smith has hardly been impressive. The bright spot has been Frank Gore, who continues to pile up rushing yards and touchdowns. Could he be the best back in the NFC this year? Oh, but you want to know about the game...Well, Seattle has only lost one game at home over the last two seasons and that was when Alexander was injured. San Francisco, on the other hand, is only 1-5 on the road. The Seahawks don’t look particularly impressive but they have pretty much sealed a playoff spot…and I can’t see them losing to mediocre teams from their division two weeks in a row. Here’s to hoping Shaun Alexander has a huge game—I need him to come up big for my fantasy playoffs.

My Pick: Shaun Alexander lifts the Green Mountain Boys errr Seahawks to victory

(Insert Catchy Post Title Here)

2006-12-11T17:35:00.000-08:00

This time when I say I am writing this quickly, I truly mean it. Another paper is in the books, but my African History final awaits…and I have yet to study for it. So, here it is, short and sweet…

Chicago (10-2, 5-1 away)
at
St. Louis (5-7, 3-3 home)

It’s do or die time for Bears’ QB Rex Grossman (18 turnovers in his last 7 games) and I don’t see him getting it done tonight…which means that there will probably be a Brian Griese sighting at some point. The Rams are going to come out strong, playing in front of their home crowd and fueled by desperation.

My Pick: Rams win and remain in playoff contention in the woeful NFC

If football and my blog are distracting you from your work...well, you're not the only one...

2006-12-09T17:02:00.000-08:00

Classes are over, and exams have begun—after my eight page paper I finished up last night, I have another five pager due Monday and a final bright and early Tuesday morning—and I am in dire need of something engrossing to distract me during study breaks. Enter football. Forget anything resembling academia; the only test that matters for me takes place on Sunday. Can I replicate my brilliance from last week? Read on and find out for yourself…

Last Week: 13-3
(SAFE PICKS: 4-1)

Season: 112-80
(SAFE PICKS: 51-27)

Oakland (2-10, 0-6 away)
at
Cincinnati (7-5, 3-3 home)

As I did last week, ESPN.com is buying into the increase in offensive statistics since Aaron Brooks’ return. Don’t be fooled. Brooks has always been successful at piling up a ton of passing yards…only to inevitably negate them with stupid interceptions.

My Pick: Bengals roll at home
SAFE PICK

Minnesota (5-7, 2-4 away)
at
Detroit (2-10, 2-4 home)

While ESPN.com notes that the Vikings are “still eyeing the postseason”, I doubt that this pipedream will persist much longer. Brad Johnson is washed-up and they have no viable backup to take his place. And to confound this even further, starting running back Chester Taylor, their only viable offensive star, is out. Can you really expect this mess of an offense to go on the road and beat a team that nearly took down the Patriots last week? I can’t see it happening…

My Pick: Lions pick up their third win of the season
SAFE PICK

Baltimore (9-3, 4-2 away)
at
Kansas City (7-5, 5-1 home)

Sure the Chiefs lost to the Browns last week but that was in Cleveland. Kansas City is a completely different team at home than they are on the road. The Ravens’ Steve McNair-dependent offense is due for a bad game, and I think that facing a solid pass defense in Arrowhead, the toughest place to play in the NFL, it will probably happen. And can the Ravens really hold down Larry Johnson? I doubt it.

My Pick: Chiefs move to 6-1 at home

New England (9-3, 5-0 away)
at
Miami (5-7, 3-3 home)

The Patriots look really shaky right now and the Dolphins have played really well during the second half of the season. Miami’s defense should force New England into several turnovers and this game is going to be close. I hate to do pick against my team, but I am taking the home team here in an upset. The Patriots are due for a loss with the way that they’ve played the last couple games.

My Pick: Dolphins shock the Pats

Atlanta (6-6, 3-3 away)
at
Tampa Bay (3-9, 3-3 home)

The Falcons came together last week in Washington and I expect them to feed off of that success and play well again this Sunday. It also helps that Tampa can’t play offense or defense very well…

My Pick: Falcons win their second straight and remain in playoff contention

Philadelphia (6-6, 2-3 away)
at
Washington (4-8, 3-3 home)

Will the trend of home teams unexpectedly winning against favored opponents continue here? I doubt it, as the Jeff Garcia-led Eagles passing game picked apart the Panthers last week and Washington’s secondary has been shaky all season. Can the Eagles really make it to the postseason without McNabb? They have a shot in the historically mediocre NFC…

My Pick: Garcia leads the Eagles back over .500

New York Giants (6-6, 3-3 away)
at
Carolina (6-6, 4-2 home)

Both of these teams badly need this win…the loser will probably have too much to overcome to make the playoffs. Eli Manning did look better last week, which is good news for the Giants, but Tiki Barber has really tailed off and their defense has been merely average. The Panthers have played just fine, well enough to be 9-3 right now. But they are 6-6 because of the awful fourth quarter turnovers of quarterback Jake Delhomme. With Delhomme out this week, Chris Weinke has a chance to steal the starting job by leading the team to victory over the Giants. Will it happen? My crystal ball says…

My Pick: Weinke has a big game and leads the Panthers to victory and into the playoffs

Indianapolis (10-2, 4-2 away)
at
Jacksonville (7-5, 5-1 home)

The Colts’ weak run defense is holding them back right now, and that will be glaringly obvious on Sunday in Jacksonville, where they face a team that is dominant defensively at home, in desperate need of a win and features the best one-two running punch (Fred Taylor and Maurice Drew) in the league.

My Pick: The Jags hand the Colts their second straight loss

Tennessee (5-7, 2-4 away)
at
Houston (4-8, 2-3 home)

The Titans only have one more win than the Texans, but they are a much better team. Since Vince Young took over, Tennessee is 5-4 and has beaten the likes of the Giants and Colts and barely lost to the Ravens, 27-26. This game may be close though, as there has to be a bit of a letdown for the Titans. After all, they did just beat the #1 team in the league last week. Will this be enough for David Carr, Andre Johnson and co. to steal a victory at home? With Vince Young eager to show the Texans what they missed out on when they passed him up in the draft, I doubt it…

My Pick: Titans move to 6-4 under Vince Young

Seattle (8-4, 3-3 away)
at
Arizona (3-9, 2-4 home)

Matt Leinart is putting up some pretty impressive passing numbers lately—as he should with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin as his starting receivers—but Arizona can’t run the ball or stop the run…until last week when they did both against a struggling St. Louis team. I can’t see that happening again with the track history of this defense and offensive line. I’d expect Leinart and the wideouts to get theirs but for James to be shut down and Shaun Alexander to have another huge game. Don’t forget about the defending NFC champs…they’re healthy now and they could sneak up on people come playoff time.

My Pick: Seahawks take another step towards the NFC West Title
SAFE PICK

Green Bay (4-8, 3-3 away)
at
San Francisco (5-7, 4-2 home)

The Packers look awful right now…they can’t put any points on the board and they aren’t stopping anyone either. Now they have to go on the road and face Frank Gore who has been possibly the most dominant offensive player in the NFC this season. This could get ugly…

My Pick: ‘9ers win and keep their playoff hopes alive
SAFE PICK

Buffalo (5-7, 2-4 away)
at
New York Jets (7-5, 3-3 home)

The Bills are banged up right now and the Jets are hot. McGahee has looked good lately and Losman really has been decent but the Bills’ defense has too many injuries right now to shut down a peaking offense on the road.

My Pick: Jets take another step towards a playoff berth
SAFE PICK

Denver (7-5, 4-2 away)
at
San Diego (10-2, 5-0 home)

I can’t say that I entirely agree with ESPN.com’s assessment of this game—Denver is in danger of being blown out—but it will be tough for them to win in San Diego with a struggling offense and a defense that has looked rather ordinary as of late. San Diego’s defense hasn’t looked as solid recently either though, so I expect this game to stay fairly tight. Tomlinson is, as always, the X-factor, and I expect him to have a big game. After all, he already proved that he can run on Denver earlier in the season. I don’t think that there is a defense out there that can hold him down.

My Pick: Chargers stay undefeated at home

New Orleans (8-4, 4-2 away)
at
Dallas (8-4, 4-1 home)

The Saints have as good an offense as any team in the NFC but they are a bit banged up right now. Both Joe Horn and Marques Colston will likely be out again which leaves Drew Brees with Devery Henderson as his only viable target downfield. Reggie Bush broke out last week with four touchdowns and looked dominating but the Saints will need him to do it again in order to have a chance to win this game. New Orleans’ pass defense is not good enough to stop Tony Romo from throwing the ball down the field successfully and Dallas is inevitably going to put up some points. Brees will keep his team in it for most of the game with some deep passes of his own but in the end it won’t be enough.

My Pick: Cowboys prove that they can beat a good team

That’s it for now. Check back on Sunday for the Bears/Rams pick. Time to get back to studying I suppose…

I must be butter...'cause I'm on a roll...

2006-12-07T10:46:00.000-08:00

For five weeks, I couldn’t pick myself out of a police lineup…now I am hotter than Natalie Portman in lingerie. Where do I go from here? I can probably only go down because it will be nearly impossible to replicate last week’s success. But hey, I can dream…and my dream starts tonight in Pittsburgh…

Cleveland (4-8, 2-3 away)
at
Pittsburgh (5-7, 4-2 home)

Despite the Steelers’ inconsistency this season, they have been pretty solid at home. That notion will be put to the test tonight as Pittsburgh will be without both of its starting wide receivers. The Browns come in to the game with newfound confidence and a new leader under center (Derek Anderson) who seems to offer more offensive firepower than Charlie Frye has so far this year, as, after Frye left the game with an injury last week, he led Cleveland to their biggest win of the year, an improbable overtime victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. It must be taken into consideration though that the Browns were playing at home, and with a level of anger and embarrassment that they won’t be able to match as they had been shut out at home by the Bengals the previous week. I’m not entirely sure how this game will turn out just because of the mind-numbingly erratic play of the Steelers this year, but I’ll give the defending champs the nod instead of making the trendy upset pick.

My Pick: Steelers move to 5-2 at home

Happiness and Wisdom Abound...

2006-12-04T15:39:00.000-08:00

A good week got even better after Josh Brown’s second game winning 50 yard FG of the season handed Jay Cutler a home loss in his debut. To top things off, Tatum Bell and Shaun Alexander both came through with solid games for me to put my fantasy team in the running for a playoff spot. In the words of Simon and Garfunkel, I am “feeling groovy!” Let’s see if I can ride this wave of enlightened ecstasy for one more pick, shall we?

Carolina (6-5, 2-3 away)
at
Philadelphia (5-6, 3-3 home)

It’s really difficult to get a read on the Panthers. Are they the offensively challenged team with a shaky secondary that lost to the Redskins or are they the offensive juggernaut that tore apart the best defense in the league and used a powerful pass-rush led defensive attack to smother their opponent in a win over the Ravens earlier this season. There is no consistency with this team…or with the Eagles for that matter. They have looked brilliant, ordinary (and demoralized after they lost their leader for the year) this season and as such it is hard to predict which team will take the field. But don’t count Philadelphia out just because they lost McNabb for the season. Andy Reid picked up Jeff Garcia in the off-season as insurance in case McNabb got hurt again and he is still a solid quarterback. He can’t do a lot of the things that McNabb can but he is still capable of leading this team to some wins if he gets good production out of his other playmakers. The fact of the matter is, Carolina’s defense is based on its pass rush and a team that has a quarterback who is able to complete a lot of quick short passes, especially to a speedy halfback or a tight end who is a good receiver can have success against them. If you ask me, Jeff Garcia, Brian Westbrook and L.J. Smith are just those types of players. Despite Steve Smith’s penchant for the spotlight, I find it difficult to pick the Panthers and their sputtering offense to win on the road against a team that is desperate for a win and matches up well against them.

My Pick: Eagles even up their record at 6-6 and stay in the playoff hunt

More Beatles, Less Mott the Hoople...

2006-12-02T11:56:00.000-08:00

I’m convinced that last week wasn’t a fluke. I am back on the winning side of things and I fully intend on staying there. I’m already off to a 1-0 start and I feel great about the rest of my picks. So, without further ado…

Last Week: 10-6
(SAFE PICKS: 5-3)

Season: 99-77
(SAFE PICKS: 47-26)

San Diego (9-2, 4-2 away)
at
Buffalo (5-6, 3-2 home)

Just when the Bills’ offense has come to life, their run defense, which was solid earlier in the year, has fallen apart, giving up huge rushing totals the last several weeks. Not a good sign with Tomlinson coming to town…

My Pick: LT continues his march towards the record books and lifts his team to victory
SAFE PICK

Minnesota (5-6, 2-3 away)
at
Chicago (9-2, 4-1 home)

Rex Grossman has had some pretty awful games this year, but he seems to be a resilient player. The game after his six turnover nightmare game in Arizona, he put up 252 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers and after his four turnover debacle against Miami, he responded with three touchdown passes as well. I expect him to shake off his bad game last week against the Patriots and pick apart the Vikings’ inconsistent secondary.

My Pick: Bears move to 5-1 at home
SAFE PICK

Kansas City (7-4, 2-3 away)
at
Cleveland (3-8, 1-5 home)

The Browns locker-room is a mess and their defense can’t stop the run. Not a good combination when you are playing against one of the best running backs in the league…

My Pick: Chiefs roll
SAFE PICK

New York Jets (6-5, 3-2 away)
at
Green Bay (4-7, 1-4 home)

Favre is simply not getting it done right now. He has the receivers and the running game to allow him to lift his team to victory, but, with the inconsistency of his passes the past couple weeks, I’m not sure it’s going to happen. I’ll take the Jets, who play hard every week and are well coached.

My Pick: Jets move to 7-5 and stay in playoff contention

Indianapolis (10-1, 4-1 away)
at
Tennessee (4-7, 2-3 home)

The Titans played the Colts close last time out, eventually losing by one point, and I see them giving them another tough game on Sunday. Vince Young is playing really well right now, their pass defense has done a great job of limiting the types of big plays that Manning thrives on, they have a running back who has had a lot of success in his career against the Colts (including this year when he rushed for 123 yards) and the game is in Tennessee. No one else seems to be with me on this, but I am taking the Titans in an upset here.

My Pick: Titans shock the Colts

Arizona (2-9, 0-5 away)
at
St. Louis (5-6, 3-2 home)

Despite mediocre play and a mediocre record of 5-6, the Rams are only one game out of the last wild card spot and the Giants are fading fast. Bulger seemed to get things together last week and their offense looked more like the juggernaut it was at the beginning of the season. Their defense may be shaky still, but, in a shootout, I’ll take Bulger at home over Leinart on the road.

My Pick: Rams win a wild one

Detroit (2-9, 0-5 away)
at
New England (8-3, 3-3 home)

The Detroit offense has been mediocre lately and much of that can be traced back to tailback Kevin Jones, who has been injured the past couple weeks. His return could reinvigorate the Lions a bit, but they are facing a defense that forced five turnovers last week and is playing better than it has all season. And really, Detroit’s defense has no chance of stopping Brady and co.

My Pick: Patriots dispatch the Lions with ease
SAFE PICK

San Francisco (5-6, 1-4 away)
at
New Orleans (7-4, 3-2 home)

The ‘9ers have played well this season, but the Saints’ passing game is unstoppable right now and San Francisco’s secondary is a little shaky. Gore will be able to get his, but I can’t see Alex Smith matching Drew Brees. Also, it’s an away game for the ‘9ers, who are an ugly 1-4 on the road this year.

My Pick: Saints continue their heavenly play
SAFE PICK

Atlanta (5-6, 2-3 away)
at
Washington (4-7, 3-2 home)

The Falcons desperately need a win. Can Washington’s defense (which has been bad all year) be expected to stop Atlanta from getting one? I, for one, don’t trust either team. But I’ll take the Falcons, since Vick is due for one of those crazy games where he throws for three touchdowns and every sportswriter declares that he has finally proven he can be a successful passing quarterback.

My Pick: Falcons pick up a much-needed win on the road

Houston (3-8, 1-5 away)
at
Oakland (2-9, 2-3 home)

You may laugh at me, but I think that Aaron Brooks has been a spark for the Raiders offense. He is much more mobile than Walter and he has a stronger arm. His decision-making skills are always in question but he has talent. I’ll take his team here because the Texans can only beat teams from Jacksonville on the road and the Raiders play much better at home than they do on the road.

My Pick: Raiders move to .500 at home

Jacksonville (6-5, 1-4 away)
at
Miami (5-6, 3-2 home)

Jacksonville has been awful on the road this season (1-4) but traveling to Miami won’t be much of a road trip. More importantly, the Dolphins have been red hot, fueled by a dominant pass-rush led defense and a seemingly reborn Joey Harrington at quarterback. The Jaguars have been inconsistent all season and are coming off of an inexcusable loss to the Bills last week. All signs seem to point towards a Miami victory. But, I have learned my lesson with this team. They always do the exact opposite of what I expect them to do. Therefore, I am picking the Jaguars to win.

My Pick: Jacksonville wins (based on my theory of reverse psychology)

Dallas (7-4, 3-3 away)
at
New York Giants (6-5, 3-2 home)

The Giants really need a win right now and they are playing at home. Still, the Cowboys seem to have the edge. Their offense, led by Tony Romo, has been nothing short of spectacular and their defense has been solid. The Giants need to stop bickering and regain some sense of team unity. Even if they do, will it be enough for them to beat the team that is the class of their division?

My Pick: Cowboys send the G-men to their fourth straight loss

Tampa Bay (3-8, 0-5 away)
at
Pittsburgh (4-7, 3-2 home)

Tampa is 0-5 on the road this year and Gradkowski has been mediocre the past couple weeks. Still, the Pittsburgh secondary has been susceptible to big plays so I could see Joey Galloway getting open frequently. If only Gradkowski could throw a good deep ball…this team really needs Simms. I guess I’ll take the Steelers here. They have underperformed all season but they should be able to beat the struggling Buccaneers at home.

My Pick: Steelers defeat another underperforming team that is outside of the playoff picture

Seattle (7-4, 2-3 away)
at
Denver (7-4, 3-2 home)

Denver’s run defense has been solid for most of the season but has been susceptible to giving up huge yardage totals to stud running backs, as Tomlinson and Larry Johnson showed us the last two weeks. After 201 rushing yards against the Packers, Shaun Alexander looks to be back at stud status, so I expect him to have a big game on Sunday too. The Broncos should be able to do a decent job containing the Seahawks’ passing game but if Alexander has another big game, it may not matter. Especially with rookie quarterback Jay Cutler making his first career start in place of the (finally) supplanted Jake “The Garter Snake” Plummer. There are bound to be some growing pains for Cutler and he is going to experience a lot of pressure from an aggressive defense that leads the AFC in sacks.

My Pick: Seahawks win on the road and spoil Cutler’s debut

That’s it for now. Check back Sunday night for my Monday Night pick...

Why the hell is there an NFL game tonight?

2006-11-30T09:46:00.000-08:00

Finally, I am back on the winning side of things. Let’s see if my Thanksgiving luck carries over to the token non-Thanksgiving Thursday game…

Baltimore (9-2, 4-1 away)
at
Cincinnati (6-5, 2-3 home)

It’s redemption time for the Bengals. Last time these two teams met, with a chance to come back, T.J. Houshmandzadeh was mugged by Samiki Rolles without a whistle. I don’t think that the Bengals have forgotten that and I think that they will be motivated to get back at their division rivals. The Ravens’ offense has been playing really well but I don’t think that they can beat the Bengals in a shootout. Their defense will have to have an inspired performance in order for them to win in Cincinnati and I don’t see that happening. Carson Palmer is playing far too well right now (three TD passes or more each of the past three weeks) and he has three top-tier receivers at his disposal. The Ravens’ secondary is good but somebody out of Chris Henry, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh is bound to burn them. The AFC playoff picture is about to get a whole lot more interesting…

My Pick: Redemption is a dish best served in Ohio
SAFE PICK

TGIM

2006-11-27T12:02:00.000-08:00

Well, although I am back on the winning side of things, this week still left a bad taste in my mouth. I would be embarrassed to be a Giant or Jaguar fan right now…

But let’s get down to business…

Green Bay (4-6, 3-2 away)
at
Seattle (6-4, 4-1 home)

Storylines abound…Despite his injury last week, Favre returns to start his 252nd consecutive game and continue his pursuit of Dan Marino’s all-time touchdown record. The mentor (Favre) faces the student (Matt Hasselbeck) who is returning from a knee injury that has sidelined him for the past month. Last year’s MVP (Shaun Alexander) is ready to play his first full game since his return from a foot injury that has sidelined him for most of the year. What it really boils down to is this: the Packers’ running backs and offensive line are banged up. Favre will have to carry the Packers in order to win this game, and, as he is hobbled by a couple of bad ankles and a strained muscle, that is quite a tall order. I don’t think that he will be up to the task in hostile territory, facing the defending NFC champs who are finally back at full-strength.

My Pick: Seahawks seize control of the NFC West
SAFE PICK

Pilgrim's Progress...

2006-11-24T20:09:00.000-08:00

I had many things to be thankful for this Thanksgiving: Turkey, mashed potatoes, stuffing, a cult-like prayer ceremony before dinner with my righteous right-leaning relatives, a dominating poker tournament win…and having all three of my Thanksgiving picks go in my favor. Let’s hope that the Pilgrims saved me some leftovers for the weekend, because I could really use some help right now…

Last Week: 7-9
(SAFE PICKS: 3-2)

Season: 89-71
(SAFE PICKS: 42-23)

New Orleans (6-4, 3-2 away)
at
Atlanta (5-5, 3-2 home)

The Falcons really need this win and they are playing at home…but, the Saints really need this win too, and their passing game has been outstanding this season while the Atlanta secondary has been atrocious. I’ll give the nod to Drew Brees here…he has averaged over 400 passing yards the past three weeks and while I think he may bring that average down a bit this week, I still see him throwing for over 300 yards and several touchdowns. Stick a fork in the Falcons…they’re done.

My Pick: Saints win an NFC South battle on the road

Jacksonville (6-4, 1-3 away)
at
Buffalo (4-6, 2-2 home)

The Jaguars really surprised me by dismantling the Giants on Monday night. Their defense looked better than then they have looked all season despite all of the players that they have lost to injury. They should have no trouble shutting down Losman and a likely tentative McGahee (returning from a serious rib injury). Their offense is still hindered by their receivers’ hands but Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are pretty reliable in the ground game. I’ll take Jacksonville against any team not from Houston right now…

My Pick: I’m exaggerating slightly in the above statement but they’ll pull out a win against the Bills

Cincinnati (5-5, 3-2 away)
at
Cleveland (3-7, 1-4 home)

Earlier in the season, the Browns gave the Bengals some trouble in Cincinnati. This time around, despite the fact that the Browns have been playing well, I think the Bengals will have their way. Their offense is on fire right now and they need a win to stay in the playoff hunt.

My Pick: Bengals claw down their in-state rivals
SAFE PICK

San Francisco (5-5, 1-3 away)
at
St. Louis (4-6, 2-2 home)

The 49ers beat the Rams already this season and are riding high after their win over the division-leading Seahawks last week. Naturally, I am picking against them because there will be a letdown after the win against Seattle and because they won’t be able to beat the Rams, who are a superior team, twice in one season. Gotcha! I learned my lesson after picking against Houston in their second game against Jacksonville. The ‘9ers have the Rams’ number and St. Louis is really struggling right now. Frank Gore has looked as impressive as any running back not known by their initials this season. San Francisco…so hot right now!

My Pick: Ridin’ the smog heat wave…

Arizona (2-8, 0-4 away)
at
Minnesota (4-6, 2-3 home)

The Vikings were impressive for the first third of the season but the combination of injuries to their offensive line, a non-existent passing game and an inconsistent secondary have doomed them to mediocrity. A finally healthy Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are chomping at the bit to get on the artificial turf and tear things up.

My Pick: The Cardinals pick up their first road win of the season

Houston (3-7, 1-4 away)
at
New York Jets (5-5, 2-3 home)

The Jets’ mediocre kryptonite team is the Browns…anyone else that they are supposed to beat, they will.

My Pick: Jets win at home and move back over .500
SAFE PICK

Carolina (6-4, 2-2 away)
at
Washington (3-7, 2-2 home)

I haven’t done the recipe gimmick in a while…let’s give it another go:
A rookie quarterback in his second career start, backed by an inconsistent offensive line + a surging defense powered by the best pass rusher in the league + the worst pass defense in the league + the fastest and best overall receiver in the league = Tell your kids to cover their eyes…

My Pick: Panthers overpower the ‘skins
SAFE PICK

Pittsburgh (4-6, 1-4 away)
at
Baltimore (8-2, 4-1 home)

Take a good look at the Baltimore Ravens and tell me with a straight face that they are a legit 8-2 team. Then, take a good look at the Pittsburgh Steelers and tell me, given their track record and their personnel, that they are a 4-6 team. Justice will prevail…if the ghosts of the Pilgrims will it to be so of course.

My Pick: The Steelers will give me something else to be thankful for
SAFE PICK

Oakland (2-8, 0-5 away)
at
San Diego (8-2, 4-0 home)

Oakland is winless on the road and has an awful offense…San Diego is undefeated at home and has an overpowering offense. That’s all you really need to know about this game…

My Pick: The Chargers win at home in convincing fashion
SAFE PICK

New York Giants (6-4, 3-2 away)
at
Tennessee (3-7, 1-3 home)

The Giants, after losing two straight, really need to win this game. The Titans have played well as of late but they are facing a team that is much more talented than they are and is desperate.

My Pick: Chalk up a much-needed win for the G-men
SAFE PICK

Chicago (9-1, 5-0 away)
at
New England (7-3, 2-3 home)

My name may not be Dennis Green but I know who the Bears are: a very talented team on both sides of the ball that is prone to offensive and subsequent defensive lapses when their quarterback has a bad game. I’m not sure who the Patriots are. I’ve seen them look both dominating and diminutive this season. After this game, I think I will have a much better idea of what this team is capable of this season. Theoretically, Belichick’s confusing blitzing schemes will wreck havoc on Rex Grossman and force him into many turnovers. Theoretically, Brady will spread the ball all around the field and, given ample opportunity to pick the Bears’ defense apart, will do so. Will that play out on Sunday? Let's wait and see…

My Pick: My money’s on Brady and the Pats but it’s a pretty small wager

Philadelphia (5-5, 2-2 away)
at
Indianapolis (9-1, 5-0 home)

The Eagles just lost their leader for the season and potentially part of next year with a torn ACL. How well can you expect them to play after that? Also, Jeff Garcia is incapable of throwing the ball further than 10 yards down the field these days…

My Pick: Colts pick up where they left off 2 weeks ago…before the Cowboys got in the way of history
SAFE PICK

That’s all for now, but don’t you worry. There will definitely be some Thanksgiving leftovers in store for you before Monday night…

A Tiny Taste of Pigskin mixed with Turkey...

2006-11-22T08:48:00.000-08:00

Another week, another sub-.500 picking performance by me…maybe I need a Thanksgiving feast to rejuvenate myself. At any rate, we have a couple of putrid Thanksgiving afternoon match-ups, as usual, and a nightcap that should be pretty exciting. Here it goes…

Miami (4-6, 1-4 away)
at
Detroit (2-8, 2-3 home)

An inconsistent passing game and an injured Kevin Jones spell trouble for the hometown Lions in the early game. Look for Joey Harrington to get the best of his old team in his return to Detroit. Miami’s surging and their defense is playing superbly right now…

My Pick: Dolphins keep rolling
SAFE PICK (If Kevin Jones doesn’t play)

Tampa Bay (3-7, 0-4 away)
at
Dallas (6-4, 3-1 home)

Tampa is winless on the road this season, and for good reason: they aren’t that good. Gradkowski has played well enough to keep them in games, but not well enough to win most of them. Dallas just knocked off the previously undefeated Colts on Sunday, so one might expect there to be a bit of a letdown in a game played four days after, but I don’t expect them to lose here. Their front line will harass Gradkowski all afternoon and their offense is rolling right now.

My Pick: Cowboys corral another win

Denver (7-3, 4-1 away)
at
Kansas City (6-4, 4-1 home)

The Broncos have to be a bit rattled after they blew a 24-7 lead to the Chargers at home and ended up losing on Sunday. Now they have to play a game four days after, in Arrowhead, the toughest place to play in the NFL. The Broncos’ pass defense looked solid earlier in the year but it has struggled as of late. I expect to see Trent Green, now that he has shaken off the rust from not playing for half of a season, pick them apart as well. And Larry Johnson is another top-flight runner that, like Tomlinson, is good enough to neutralize Denver’s tough run defense.

My Pick: Chiefs win their 5th game at home this season
SAFE PICK

Have a great Thanksgiving everyone…I’m off to eat some turkey and play me some video games…

I am speechless...

2006-11-20T13:24:00.000-08:00

I am without speech!
After the way things played out picks-wise and fantasy-wise this week, I really have nothing to say. I could say that I am demoralized and despondent but even that would not completely capture the depths of my emotions.

New York Giants (6-3, 3-1 away)
at
Jacksonville (5-4, 4-1 home)

Two teams with great running games and banged-up defenses playing on Monday Night…I’ll take the team with the better passing game (even with Eli’s recent struggles). Although the Giants are on the road, as the Texans showed us, the Jaguars can be beaten at home. And their receivers drop way too many passes to be successful. They remind me of the Seahawks team that missed the playoffs a couple years ago because Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson couldn’t catch the ball.

My Pick: Giants win on the road
SAFE PICK

Say it ain't so...

2006-11-18T16:51:00.000-08:00

My guarantee was a heartbreaker…
Perhaps it would have been more effective had I actually put something on the line. Perhaps it would have been more effective had I not overanalyzed my picks.
Perhaps it would have been more effective had I not been on the losing end of two tossups.
Perhaps I better stop making redundant excuses for myself and move on…

Last Week: 7-9
(SAFE PICKS: 4-4)

Season: 82-62
(SAFE PICKS: 39-21)

Pittsburgh (3-6, 0-4 away)
at
Cleveland (3-6, 1-3 home)

The Steelers are winless on the road and the Browns are only 1-3 at home…something’s got to give...Most likely one or both teams’ secondaries, which have both been awful this season. Roethlisberger should be able to have a huge game here and lead his team to victory, but he’s been so inconsistent this year that I don’t completely trust him. The Steelers do have a huge advantage in the running department as Willie Parker is 4th in the league in rushing and is always a threat to break a big run. Rueben Droughns? He’s not awful but his offensive line is which really hinders his running…

My Pick: Steelers pull out their first road win

New England (6-3, 4-0 away)
at
Green Bay (4-5, 1-3 home)

The Patriots are and always will be my team, but they have me worried right now. Everyone in the media keeps repeating that it would be impossible for Belichick/Brady to lose three games in a row but I am not so sure. While the good ol’ gunslinger Brett Favre can be stubborn and interception-prone at times, the Patriots really lack the personnel to stop their passing game right now. Driver and Jennings are both top-flight receivers and will have a field-day against the Patriots’ severely depleted secondary. Both of New England’s starting safeties (Rodney Harrison and Asante Samuel) are out and their starting cornerbacks (Ellis Hobbs and Eugene Wilson) are listed as questionable. The New England offense is going to have to play at a level light years ahead of where they were last week and it’s going to be tough for them to pull this out on the road against a team that needs the win more than they do.

My Pick: Packers shock the media and move to .500

Oakland (2-7, 0-4 away)
Kansas City (5-4, 3-1 home)

Damon Huard did a nice job holding down the fort, but now Trent Green, one of the most productive quarterbacks over the last five years, is back in action. He may be a bit rusty and have some trouble against a surprisingly good Oakland secondary, but the Chiefs’ improved defense will have no trouble smothering the Raiders’ non-existent passing game regardless of whether it is Walter or Brooks running the show.

My Pick: Chiefs pick up the win at home
SAFE PICK

Minnesota (4-5, 2-2 away)
at
Miami (3-6, 2-2 home)

I still don’t trust the Dolphins (especially the Harrington-led passing game), but their defense has really come to life the past couple weeks. With Hutchinson and Richardson out for the rest of the season, the Vikings’ running game is going to be hampered and their passing game has been anemic of late, to say the least. I can’t see the Vikes getting it together this week on the road against a team that is playing really good defensively.

My Pick: The ‘Phins finish off the Vikings’ playoff hopes
SAFE PICK

Cincinnati (4-5, 2-2 away)
at
New Orleans (6-3, 3-1 home)

With both teams’ offenses lighting it up right now, I expect a shootout. There is no way that either team’s defense can stop the other team’s offense so I see this coming down to whoever has the ball in the final seconds pulling out the win. I’ll give the Bengals the edge since they really need the win.

My Pick: Bengals win a wild one and move back to .500

Chicago (8-1, 4-0 away)
at
New York Jets (5-4, 2-2 home)

The Jets played a great game last week when they beat the Patriots but there is bound to be a letdown this week. Chicago is not a team that you want to have a letdown game against. They will destroy a team that is not mentally prepared to play with them. The Bears will likely jump out to a big lead and then ride Thomas Jones (against the second worst rush defense in the league) the rest of the way.

My Pick: DA BEARS!
SAFE PICK

Tennessee (2-7, 1-4 away)
at
Philadelphia (5-4, 3-2 home)

The Eagles could overlook this game but I don’t think that they will. At 5-4 in a very competitive division, they can’t afford to. The Titans have a pretty solid running game but Vince Young can only do so much in the passing game. If the Eagles’ explosive offense stakes them out to a big lead and Young if forced to throw the ball a lot, it will be a long day for the Titans. Young, at this point in his career, makes way too many mistakes throwing the ball down the field and as such is prone to interceptions.

My Pick: Eagles soar to victory! (Eat your heart out USA Today)

Washington (3-6, 1-4 away)
at
Tampa Bay (2-7, 2-3 home)

Tampa had been playing pretty well, but they have to be demoralized after their Monday Night loss to the Panthers when they wasted countless opportunities. The Redskins will be without Clinton Portis but Betts is a solid backup and I think that new starting QB Jason Campbell will spark the passing game, which has been stagnant the last couple weeks and in much need of a change.

My Pick: Redskins make the demoralized Buccaneers walk the plank

St. Louis (4-5, 2-3 away)
at
Carolina (5-4, 3-2 home)

The Rams’ recent floundering and the Panthers’ emotional victory last week aside, let’s focus on the most important match-up here: the Julius Peppers-led Panthers front line versus the Orlando Pace-less banged up offensive line of the Rams. Bulger is going to see pressure all afternoon and I don’t think that he is going to have enough time in the pocket to make any big plays. He really hasn’t had a bad game all year, so I think he’s due…

My Pick: Panthers sack the Rams

Atlanta (5-4, 2-2 away)
at
Baltimore (7-2, 3-1 home)

Michael Vick always does exactly the opposite of what you expect him to do. His consistent inconsistency is quite uncanny. Everyone was ready to pronounce him the best passer in the league three weeks ago after he had put up 40+ points on the Steelers and tore apart the Bengals. Since then, the Falcons have lost two games to teams that, statistically, they should have destroyed: the Lions and then the Browns. So now everyone has given up on Vick and the Falcons and is counting them out of the playoff hunt…everyone that is, except for me. I’m expecting Vick to have a huge game against the Ray Lewis-less Ravens defense, which has looked much less dominating in recent weeks but has benefited from an improved offense.

My Pick: Falcons “shock” the Ravens
SAFE PICK

Buffalo (3-6, 1-4 away)
at
Houston (3-6, 2-2 home)

So, the Texans are favored to win their second game in a row for the first time in recent memory? I’m not buying it. The Bills’ defense has looked really good the last few weeks and the Texans’ offense, despite their victory last week, has really regressed. Houston’s running game is again up in the air as Lundy has reverted to early season form and Gado hasn’t been much better. As for the Bills…McGahee is still out but Anthony Thomas has done an excellent job filling in the last two weeks and I expect him to have another solid outing against an awful Texans’ run defense.

My Pick: The Bills take care of business on the road

Detroit (2-7, 0-4 away)
at
Arizona (1-8, 1-4 home)

I’m still not sure how the Lions managed to lose to the 49ers last week but I am confident that they won’t lose to two awful NFC West teams in a row. Their offense is too good and their opponent’s too bad for that to happen. Then again, it was a similar thought process that made me incorrectly pick Detroit last week, so who knows?

My Pick: Lions pounce on the Cardinals

Seattle (6-3, 2-2 away)
at
San Francisco (4-5, 3-2 home)

I’m not sure why there is the perception that the 49ers will pull off the upset here. They have upset two teams in row to seemingly get back into the playoff race, but their team really isn’t that great. Gore has played well but their passing game has been only so-so and their defense has been the beneficiary of a lot of luck. With Shaun Alexander making his emotional return and Seattle wanting to get him re-acclimated with the offense, there won’t be any letdown from their last-second victory over the Rams last week.

My Pick: Seahawks capitalize on Alexander’s return

Indianapolis (9-0, 4-0 away)
at
Dallas (5-4, 2-1 home)

Many media members expect the Colts to lose this game, but after how lethargically they played against the Bills, I expect Tony Dungy to have his team fired up this week. The Colts do seem to play down to the level of their opponent at times but there will be none of that this week in Dallas. Romo will probably have a solid game and Julius Jones should tear it up against the league’s worst rush defense, but Peyton Manning will manhandle the Cowboy’s suspect secondary.

My Pick: Colts move to 10-0

San Diego (7-2, 3-2 away)
at
Denver (7-2, 3-1 home)

History repeats itself. This is a fact of life. A fact that LaDanian Tomlinson, who has never had more than 75 rushing yards against Denver in his career, knows all too well. Denver is great at stopping the run regardless of opponent, but they really have Tomlinson’s number (holding him to 3.4 yards per carry in his career). This will continue again on Sunday, forcing Rivers to air it up against two of the best cover corners in the league in a hostile environment where the opposing defense feeds off of the crowd. I don’t think that this looks like a good formula for success for San Diego.

My Pick: The Broncos show why “D” is the first letter in their city’s name

15 down, 1 to go. Check back on Monday for details on the Jack Del Rio Bowl...

Cold Turkey's Gettin' Stale...

2006-11-13T13:52:00.000-08:00

…tonight I’m eating crow! So much for my guarantee. Nine incorrect picks later and I am left picking up the pieces yet again. Can I salvage a 7-9 week tonight? I guess it’s worth a try…

Tampa Bay (2-6, 0-3 away)
at
Carolina (4-4, 2-2 home)

In the last two games that they’ve played, the Tampa Bay cornerbacks have been burned by speedy receivers (Marques Colston and Plaxico Burress). They’ll encounter an even tougher hurdle tonight, facing Steve Smith, the most explosive receiver in the game. Coming off a BYE week, I am pretty sure that John Fox will have a pretty good offensive game plan that will implement the finally healthy Smith as much as possible. Bruce Gradikowski was a feel-good story at first, but in his last couple outings he hasn’t looked too impressive. I don’t think he has what it takes to lead his team to victory on the road against a hungry, rested and well-prepared Panthers team.

My Pick: Steve Smith leads the way as the Panthers roll
SAFE PICK

A Shiny, Red Guarantee!

2006-11-10T15:03:00.000-08:00

Yep, it’s that time again. The time of the week when you read my blog, expecting insightful analysis that will help you decide which team you should pick in each NFL game. Well, despite three straight weeks of picking fewer games right than wrong, I still think that I provide this service. I’m just in a bit of a slump…which I guarantee I will break out of this week! That’s right, I am guaranteeing that I will pick more games correctly than incorrectly this week. That doesn’t sound like much I know, but given my recent history it will be a huge step forward. For those of you scoring at home, here are the aforementioned numbers:

Last Week: 6-8
(SAFE PICKS: 2-4)

Season: 75-53
(SAFE PICKS: 35-17)

Cleveland (2-6, 1-3 away)
at
Atlanta (5-3, 3-1 home)

As it turns out, Michael Vick isn’t the second coming of Joe Montana after all. The Lions dominated the Falcons on both sides of the ball last week and I think it’s safe to say that all expectations for Atlanta and Vick have now been tempered. Funny, I picked that to happen. Granted, it was one of only six games that I picked correctly, but I still feel like I should be allowed to pat myself on the back for picking an upset that wasn’t even on anyone else’s radar. Anyway, about this game…The Browns have looked better the last couple weeks, beating the Jets and playing a tight game with the Chargers. I don’t think that they can beat the Falcons in Atlanta though. Charlie Frye may be able to generate some yardage through the air and put some points on the board, but it won’t be enough. The Falcons are the best in the business at running the ball and the Browns’ rushing defense is awful.

My Pick: Falcons run to victory at home
SAFE PICK

San Diego (6-2, 2-2 away)
at
Cincinnati (4-4, 2-2 home)

It’s time for the Bengals’ talented offensive players to stop bickering, shut up and play. They have the most talent in the AFC Central and they should be ahead in the division. Instead, they are staring up at the Ravens after losing to them last week. The Bengals need to get their act together quickly or they will be watching the playoffs from their living rooms. They are perfectly capable of beating the Chargers at home in a must-win game, but will they? They need to start generating more of the big plays that fueled their explosive offense last season and it all starts with Carson Palmer. Because Palmer’s throwing mechanics are still a little off, the Bengals have thrown the ball down the field quite a bit less than last season which has limited their offense and Palmer and Chad Johnson’s statistics. These guys are too good to play this poorly. I expect them to pull it together this week and pick up the upset win at home.

My Pick: Bengals get back on track

San Francisco (3-5, 0-3 away)
at
Detroit (2-6, 2-2 home)

Last week’s 9-3 ‘9ers win over the Vikings posed the following question for us amateur football analysts: Is the San Francisco defense that good or is the Minnesota offense that bad? I’ll take the latter. The Lions have a potent passing game and I expect them to continue to pile up yards through the air. Kevin Jones should have another big day on the ground as well.

My Pick: Lions bring the ‘9ers back to earth
SAFE PICK

Baltimore (6-2, 3-1 away)
at
Tennessee (2-6, 1-2 home)

The Titans have a good running game but they inexplicably abandoned it last time out. If they can take some pressure off of Vince Young by establishing the run, their defense will be able to hold down McNair and the Ravens and keep this thing close. I still see Baltimore pulling it out though.

My Pick: Ravens hold on for the win

Buffalo (3-5, 1-3 away)
at
Indianapolis (8-0, 4-0 home)

The Bills did next to nothing on offense against an awful Packers defense last week and lost their only bona fide talent, McGahee, with three broken ribs. Creating a couple of turnovers on defense and making one or two plays on offense will get you a win against Green Bay but I can’t see this success translating over to a road game against the Colts.

My Pick: Colts roll to 9-0
SAFE PICK

Kansas City (5-3, 2-2 away)
at
Miami (2-6, 1-2 home)

Miami’s one highlight of this season was their win over the previously undefeated Bears. I expect them to revert back to their earlier mediocre form this week as they face a premier running back who is tearing it up and a quarterback who takes care of the ball and mans a passing game that is efficient if not spectacular. The Chiefs look like a playoff team to me…

My Pick: Chiefs continue to roll
SAFE PICK

Green Bay (3-5, 2-2 away)
at
Minnesota (4-4, 2-2 home)

I was very disappointed in both of these teams last week. Do I really need to pick a winner here? Since I have to pick one of them, I will go with the Packers. They generated enough offense to beat the Bills but made crucial errors in the red zone which cost them the game.

My Pick: Packers beat the struggling Vikings

New York Jets (4-4, 2-2 away)
at
New England (6-2, 2-2 home)

I know that the Jets are 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per game, but I think that they have a shot in this game. The Patriots’ secondary seems a lot weaker without Rodney Harrison. If Chad Pennington can put together a solid game, he should be able to find Crotchery and Coles for some big gains. It’ll be close…

My Pick: …But I’m taking the Patriots

Washington (3-5, 1-3 away)
at
Philadelphia (4-4, 2-2 home)

The Cowboys’ copious miscues last week have given the Redskins a second life of sorts…will they take advantage of it? My bet is they won’t. Their passing defense has been awful this year and, despite their win, their secondary didn’t look any better. If Owens could actually catch the ball, they would have been blown out last week. I think that Stallworth and Brown will be able to find similar separation in the secondary and that McNabb will rebound from his abysmal performance two weeks ago. The Eagles need this win just as much as the Redskins do and with their superior personnel, they will get it.

My Pick: Eagles get back into the win column
SAFE PICK

Houston (2-6, 0-4 away)
at
Jacksonville (5-3, 4-0 home)

The Texans blew the Jaguars out in their last meeting and the Jags are out for revenge. If you lose to the Texans twice in one season, you don’t deserve to make the playoffs. Remember that, Jack Del Rio! You also don’t deserve to make the playoffs if your receivers drop half of the passes thrown their direction…but I digress. Houston will put up a few points via Carr-to-Johnson but their defense will be torn apart by Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.

My Pick: The Jaguars avenge their earlier loss in Houston
SAFE PICK

Denver (6-2, 3-1 away)
at
Oakland (2-6, 2-2 home)

Oakland’s offense is simply pathetic. Denver’s defense is really good. Enough said.

My Pick: Broncos blow out Raiders in Oakland
SAFE PICK

Dallas (4-4, 2-3 away)
at
Arizona (1-7, 1-3 home)

Romo looked really good again last week but an inexplicable combination of dropped passes, stupid penalties and a special teams meltdown cost them the win. They should have no trouble beating up on a Cardinals team that looks like it has packed it in for the season.

My Pick: Cowboys move back over .500
SAFE PICK

New Orleans (6-2, 3-1 away)
at
Pittsburgh (2-6, 2-2 home)

As sloppy as Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers’ offense have been, the defense has been equally at fault. They allowed 4 TD passes and over 40 points to a Falcons’ passing game that the Lions easily shut down last week. The Saints’ offense is rolling right now as Drew Brees keeping piling up 300 yard games and they keep winning. What do the Steelers have to counter that? Pride? I should probably give them the benefit of the doubt since they are playing at home and they did win the Super Bowl last year but they look pretty awful to me.

My Pick: Saints drive the final nail in the Steel coffin

St. Louis (4-4, 2-2 away)
at
Seattle (5-3, 3-1 home)

The Rams have been struggling lately but it has mostly been a result of ill-timed fumbles by the receivers and Steven Jackson, trying to fight for an extra yard or two. Marc Bulger continues to throw the ball efficiently and effectively and has been unfazed by the wide variety of defenses that he has had thrown at him this season. I don’t really trust the Seahawks’ secondary right now so I expect Bulger’s success to continue in Seattle. The Seahawks are still without their two offensive leaders, Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander (who is listed as doubtful but has essentially been ruled out), and I don’t think that the home field advantage will be enough for them to beat their only real division rival.

My Pick: Rams are up to the test and win in Qwest

Chicago (7-1, 3-0 away)
at
New York Giants (6-2, 3-1 home)

The Bears were exposed by the Dolphins last week and things aren’t getting any easier; now, they have to travel to Giants Stadium to face a team that is playing as well as anyone in the NFC right now. The Bears’ offense isn’t clicking as well without deep threat Bernard Berrian (out with an injury) who really opens up the rest of the offense with his big play ability. Thomas Jones has been inconsistent running the ball and so now the onus for the offense is completely on Rex Grossman’s shoulders. He seems to be prone to pressure, so I expect the Giants to blitz frequently and try to force him into mistakes. On the other side of the field, the Giants get Plaxico Burress back this week. The Bears’ corners are good but they can be beat. Burress has the right combination of speed and size to be effective against them. This has all the makings of a great game and I expect it to be pretty competitive.

My Pick: I’ll take the home team here

That’s all for now…Remember, I guarantee that I will pick more of the above games correctly than incorrectly. Check back in a few days for the Monday Night pick…

My Words Don't Taste Very Good...

2006-11-03T14:29:00.000-08:00

All right, so the ‘Tuna’ did actually know what he was doing when he benched Bledsoe for Tony Romo two weeks ago. I admit that I may have been a bit blinded by my bitterness stemming from their loss to the Giants (which Romo was almost entirely responsible for) but obviously Romo was not prepared to enter the game at halftime against possibly the best team in the division. I should have given him the benefit of the doubt and waited until after I saw him play in a game that he was prepared to play in before making any judgments. So, after the fact I will say this: Parcells knows what he’s doing and I should have realized this before. If he thought that this team could contend with Bledsoe he would have kept him as his starter regardless of his feelings on Romo. Parcells has always been committed to veteran QBs, and for him to buck this trend, there either had to be something really wrong with Bledsoe or something really special about Romo…or, a little of both. With the Eagles losing in stunning fashion yet again, the NFC East just got a whole lot more interesting…

Upsets and surprises (Vick, unexpected injuries, the Pitt defense falling apart, etc.) have abounded the last couple weeks, and as such, my picking record has suffered. This week my goal is to return to respectability but if things keep going the way they have, all bets are off…

Last Week: 5-9
(SAFE PICKS: 2-3)

Season: 69-45
(SAFE PICKS: 33-13)

Green Bay (3-4, 2-1 away)
at
Buffalo (2-5, 1-2 home)

Now that Favre has developed chemistry with his receivers and the running game has picked things up, the Packers don’t look half bad. If the defense continues to improve and they get a little luck, they could be in the hunt for the last playoff spot in the NFC. At any rate, they have too much offensive firepower for Buffalo to handle.

My Pick: Packers climb back to .500
SAFE PICK

Miami (1-6, 0-4 away)
at
Chicago (7-0, 4-0 home)

Let’s see…how do I put this? Miami offense bad, Chicago defense good? I mean that pretty much sums up this game. When Joey Harrington is your best option at quarterback, your offense has some serious issues. I was pretty tickled by Bill Simmons’ assessment of the Dolphins’ QB situation over the last couple years, so I thought I would share it with you guys, just for kicks:
“Has there even been anything like Chris Chambers basically running 75 wind sprints every Sunday for five straight years while his QBs bounced the ball in front of him or sailed passes over his head? For all we know, Chambers might be one of the five greatest receivers of all-time. Is there a way to simulate how his career would have unfolded playing on the Colts?”
In my fantasy league, I actually tried to trade for Chambers early in the season, expecting to see the Culpepper of 2002. Needless to say, I am glad I didn’t make that trade…and not for any lack of talent or effort on the part of Chambers.

My Pick: Chicago destroys Miami
SAFE PICK

Atlanta (5-2, 2-1 away)
at
Detroit (1-6, 1-2 home)

Yes, I know, Vick has looked superb the past couple weeks…but how long can it last? We’ve seen flashes of brilliance from him before, but he’s never been able to consistently sustain it. I’m not convinced yet. And more importantly, Atlanta’s pass defense has looked awful during their last few games. This is something that they need to fix if they want to have any chance of competing in the playoffs. It’s also a weakness that I think Detroit can capitalize on. Jon Kitna has quietly thrown for over 1800 yards and 9 touchdowns this year, and should have no trouble adding to these stats on Sunday. I also don’t really trust the Falcons’ rush defense, which plays well at times but gives up big plays. I think Kevin Jones will continue his recent success and the Lions’ offense will have no problem putting points on the board. As for their defense? They’re pretty inconsistent themselves, but after the ridiculous statistics that Vick has piled up in the passing game the last couple games, he is due for a dud.

My Pick: The Lions ride Kitna, Jones and Williams to an upset at home

Kansas City (4-3, 1-2 away)
at
St. Louis (4-3, 2-1 home)

The Chiefs just knocked off the NFC West leading Seahawks…surely they are up to the task of beating the second place Rams as an encore? Not so much…keep in mind that they played Seattle at Arrowhead (not to sound like a broken record, but one of the toughest places to play in the NFL) and the Seahawks were without their All-Pro Quarterback and Running Back (Hasselbeck and Alexander for those of you living under a rock for the last couple years). The Rams need a win to keep pace with the Seahawks (who currently hold the tiebreaker and are playing the Raiders this week) and while the Chiefs’ pass defense is much improved, it won’t be able to hold down Bulger, Bruce and Holt.

My Pick: Rams win at home

Houston (2-5, 0-3 away)
at
New York Giants (5-2, 2-1 home)

With the Bears on the horizon, in a very competitive division and conference, the Giants can’t afford to look past this game…and they won’t. The Texans are extremely overmatched defensively and, on a potentially windy day, Tiki Barber will punish them time and time again.

My Pick: Giants look huge against the inferior Texans
SAFE PICK

New Orleans (5-2, 2-1 away)
at
Tampa Bay (2-5, 2-2 home)

While I admit that the Saints have been playing a little over their head so far this season, I’m not ready to write them off yet. Their loss last week to the Ravens was as much bad luck as it was being outplayed: Two of Brees’s interceptions bounced out of his receivers’ hands. I think they will shrug off last week’s loss and continue to roll. Eli Manning threw jump ball after jump ball to Plaxico Burress last week against the Buccaneers’ undersized cornerbacks and I expect Brees to do the same thing with his tall and athletic weapon, Marques Colston.

My Pick: The Saints regain their swagger

Dallas (4-3, 2-2 away)
at
Washington (2-5, 1-2 home)

The Redskins have had an extra week to prepare for this game but I can’t see that being much of a factor. Their defense has been abysmal this season and I can’t see that changing on Sunday. Their only hope is to switch defenses and hope to confuse Tony Romo, but after his performance against the Panthers, I’m not convinced that this will work very well. And how are the Redskins going to score any points? Santana Moss is likely out with a hamstring injury and Clinton Portis is hobbled by an ankle injury. So much for the excitement of the Gibbs/Parcells rivalry game…

My Pick: Romo continues to ignore my disparaging comments from last week and leads his team to victory on the road
SAFE PICK

Tennessee (2-5, 1-3 away)
at
Jacksonville (4-3, 3-0 home)

Believe it or not, I think that the Titans’ offense will fare better against the Jaguars’ defense than the Eagles did last week. This is because their offense is extremely dependent on the run and because I expect it to be less windy this week than it was in Philly last Sunday. It is also because the Titans are playing well right now, coming off of two straight wins and hoping to make it three in a row. Unfortunately for them, the Jaguars have Maurice Drew and Fred Taylor. The Titans’ run defense is awful, having allowed the third most rushing yards in the AFC. Unless the Titans somehow jump out to a big lead and Garrard is forced to pass, Jacksonville will ride their backs to victory.

My Pick: Garrard holds down the fort for Leftwich and the Jags get the win at home

Cincinnati (4-3, 2-1 away)
at
Baltimore (5-2, 2-1 home)

Will the real Carson Palmer please stand up? It’s about time that the Bengals started playing up to their talent level and it all starts with Palmer. If the Bengals are going to win the division, they need to make a statement in this game and prove that they are a contender. The Ravens have a solid defense but they have an inconsistent running game and their passing game is getting by on luck at the moment (Seriously, have you ever seen a team score more touchdowns on balls deflected by the defense?). Palmer is a good enough quarterback to pick the Ravens’ defense apart and McNair can only put so many points on the board. As far as I am concerned, this is the bottom line: The Bengals need to win this game to regain the swagger that they seem to have lost. If they don’t, I see the Ravens faltering, and the Steelers sneaking back in it to win the division at 9-7. Again, Baltimore is a pretender. Their running game is awful and they have caught every break possible in their passing game this year. A good defense can only take you so far…

My Pick: Bengals come out strong and take control of the division

Minnesota (4-3, 2-1 away)
at
San Francisco (2-5, 2-2 home)

Yeah, so the Vikings were embarrassed by New England last week…but I think that is more a testament to the high level that the Patriots are playing at than it is a reflection of Minnesota’s team. Chester Taylor never got it going last week because the Patriots jumped out to a big lead and never looked back. He should come out strong this week and have a big game against the NFC’s 11th ranked rush defense. Brad Johnson made an uncharacteristic number of mistakes last week, which I also think was an aberration; he will play better this week as well. And the Vikings’ pass defense is much better than they showed last week as well. They will shut down the ‘9ers’ passing game and lead the way to a Viking victory.

My Pick: The Vikings prove to be resilient

Denver (5-2, 2-1 away)
at
Pittsburgh (2-5, 2-1 home)

The Broncos’ defense was exposed last week by Peyton Manning and the Steelers’ backs are against the wall. Denver will be vulnerable because they are demoralized at the moment and their defensive strategy is under serious scrutiny. Roethlisberger knows that the Steelers can’t afford to lose this game and will find a way to atone for his sins last week in Oakland and will lead the Steelers to victory.

My Pick: Pittsburgh wins a must-win game
SAFE PICK

Cleveland (2-5, 1-2 away)
at
San Diego (5-2, 3-0 home)

The Browns exposed the Jets’ awful run defense and took advantage of the worst game of Chad Pennington’s career to pick up their second win of the season. They better enjoy it while they can, because any good taste left in their mouths will be long gone after this game…

My Pick: Chargers win big at home
SAFE PICK

Indianapolis (7-0, 3-0 away)
at
New England (6-1, 2-1 home)

Both of these teams are at the top of their games right now. Yeah this game is being hyped to death, but I expect it to live up to everyone’s expectations. Both Tom Brady (372 yards and 4 TDs last week against a solid Vikings’ defense) and Peyton Manning (345 yards, 3 TDs and he engineered the game-winning drive capped by former Patriot Adam Vinatieri’s 49 yard FG) are at the top of their games right now and I expect them to put on a show. While the Colts are undefeated and did just beat a good team that manhandled the Patriots earlier in the season, I still have to give the edge to the Pats. The edge in this rivalry has clearly gone to Brady, who is 10-3 against Manning in his career. More importantly though, the Patriots have a better defense than the Colts do and a coach who is sure to have a game-plan full of surprises for Manning to overcome. On the other side of the field, the Colts’ run defense is awful. I expect Maroney and Dillon to run all over them. Bottom Line: The Colts are due to lose a game and the Patriots have their number.

My Pick: And then there was one…(unbeaten team that is)

Oakland (2-5, 0-3 away)
at
Seattle (4-3, 2-1 home)

I bet you weren’t expecting to see this pick here…what happened to my special post on the Monday Night game tradition? Well, this match-up is so bad it doesn’t deserve more than a couple sentences. The Raiders’ offense is disgustingly bad and their defense is merely average. The Seahawks are still missing Hasselbeck and Alexander but they should still be able to do enough on offense to pull out a must-win game at home.

My Pick: Seahawks win in an awful Monday Night Match-up

Until next week…You stay classy, Middlebury!

I like 'em short and sweet...

2006-10-30T14:37:00.000-08:00

Like a Rice Krispie Treat!

New England (5-1, 3-0 away)
at
Minnesota (4-2, 2-1 home)

Are the Vikings the league’s most underrated team? Bill Belichick seems to think so…He has been quoted as saying that “he doesn’t know how they [The Vikings] lost to the Bears”, because they clearly outplayed them in their match-up earlier this season. Belichick knows that his team is in for a tough game tonight. The Patriots have relied on their running game for much of the season as Brady has had to become acclimated with a new group of receivers, and tonight they face the top rush defense in the NFL. The Vikings are a smart and disciplined team. They are not going to put up a lot of points but they capitalize on the opportunities that they are given. Brad Johnson may not win games for them by himself, but he rarely turn the ball over, so he won’t lose them for you either. This game certainly has the potential of being an upset in favor of Minnesota. I’m not suggesting that the Patriots will be looking ahead to next week’s match-up with the Colts because I am certain that Belichick will have his team aptly prepared tonight. What I am suggesting is that the Vikings’ defense is very good (in addition to their top ranked run defense, they also have a solid secondary), they will be able to run the ball because they have a great offensive line, and they will take care of the ball; this will keep them in the game until the end. I still see Brady and co. doing just enough to pull it out though…

My Pick: Patriots squeak by the Vikings…

Where Have All The Cowboys Gone?

2006-10-27T13:19:00.000-07:00

On Monday Night, Peter King’s greatest wish came true and Tony Romo took over at quarterback for Dallas in the second half after Drew Bledsoe’s inconsistent first half ended with an ugly interception in the end zone when Dallas had a chance to take the lead. But the Tony Romo era in Dallas began just as the Bledsoe era ended, with a poorly thrown interception on his first play. Romo followed that up with two more interceptions and as a result of his miscues, the Giants’ offense capitalized, quickly turning a close game into a blowout. Romo certainly has more mobility than Bledsoe but he does not have as strong an arm and has never played in an actual game against a first-team defense before. Parcells felt that he needed to make a change, and in his defense the Cowboys have been pretty mediocre so far, but the Cowboys’ biggest deficiency is their offensive line. If Bledsoe is given time to throw the ball, he can be very effective. The line has not done that this year against any of the teams they’ve played that have solid pass rushes. So, given the line issues, it does seem to make sense to put a quarterback who has the ability to escape the pass rush into the game. But Romo, to me, looks like a glorified Joey Harrington. His ability to escape the pocket and make plays to move the chains are enticing, but his red-zone decision-making leaves a lot to be desired. In other words, the Cowboys are in exactly the same position that they were with Bledsoe, except with less of a threat for going deep to Glenn or Owens. Maybe I’m wrong about Romo, but I’m not even considering picking the Cowboys to win another game until I see him play at least twice as well as he did against the Giants. So far, he has only made their offense worse.

If I sound a little bitter about this game, it’s because, in a week where I only picked 5 games correctly, losing this pick was the curdled frosting on the moldy cake. But that’s neither here nor there…Let’s move on, shall we?

Last Week: 5-8
(SAFE PICKS: 2-4)

Season: 64-36
(SAFE PICKS: 31-10)

San Francisco (2-4, 0-2 away)
at
Chicago (6-0, 3-0 home)

While the Bears struggled mightily against their last mediocre opponent from the NFC West (Arizona) in their last game (also at home) and should have lost that game, I can’t see them playing that poorly in consecutive games. They had a bye week to work on their offensive shortcomings in their last game and I expect Grossman to rebound well against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Their defense may not be as solid now with the losses in their secondary, but still solid enough for Chicago to beat the 49ers…

My Pick: The Bears wake up from their hibernation
SAFE PICK

Atlanta (4-2, 1-1 away)
at
Cincinnati (4-2, 2-1 home)

Yes, Atlanta’s passing game was excellent last week, but for the second straight home contest, their passing defense was absolutely awful, allowing over 400 passing yards. Playing on the road against a team that has a potentially powerful passing game, and a quarterback who is bound to break out, this could be a recipe for disaster.

My Pick: The Bengals win a shootout

Arizona (1-6, 0-3 away)
at
Green Bay (2-4, 0-3 home)

I think it’s safe to say that Arizona has lost all of the confidence that they gained in the first half of their game against the Bears, between their second half meltdown and their loss last Sunday to the lowly and previously winless Raiders. The Packers, on the other hand, are riding high after their shootout win over the Dolphins. Favre looks pretty comfortable throwing the ball and their running game is looking surprisingly solid. They still can’t play defense, but at this point, I’ll take Favre in a shootout…

My Pick: Green Bay finally wins at Lambeau

Houston (2-4, 0-2 away)
at
Tennessee (1-5, 0-2 home)

Both the Titans and Texans are bad teams who are improving and could be a factor over the next couple seasons. And both teams looked impressive in their last outings, beating the Redskins and Jaguars respectively. I have no doubt that this will be a close game but I see Andre Johnson being the X-factor. He has had either 100 yards or a touchdown in five of the Texans’ six games. The one game that he didn’t was on the road against the Dallas Cowboys, who have a powerful defensive line and were able to consistently put pressure on Carr. The Titans do not have any pass rush to speak of, so I expect that Carr will find Andre Johnson deep many times during this contest and he will have his best game of the season.

My Pick: Texans win two in a row? Has hell frozen over?

Seattle (4-2, 2-1 away)
at
Kansas City (3-3, 2-1 home)

I’m still fuming about Seattle’s game last week…that was a dirty hit on Hasselbeck (which cost the Seahawks the game and me the pick) and the football gods will punish the Vikings for their transgression. The Seahawks have been left in a perilous position now without either of their offensive leaders. I do have a feeling that Shaun Alexander may be making a surprise appearance on Sunday. He is listed as doubtful and Holmgren has said that he doesn’t expect him to play until next week against the Raiders, but he’s returned to practice so his foot must be healed. If he does play, it could really change the complexity of this game…as it stands with him out though, the Seahawks have a mediocre running back and an unproven quarterback (Seneca Wallace) making his first career start. Not a good combination when you’re playing at Arrowhead…but hold on. The latest reports out of Kansas City indicate that Damon Huard injured his hamstring in practice and likely will not play on Sunday. This hands control of the offense over to rookie Brodie Croyle. It also changes this game from being an obvious Chiefs’ win to a toss-up. I’ll still take Kansas City here, given that they have an elite running back (that I know will play) and that the game is in Arrowhead. I would no longer consider this a SAFE PICK though by any means…

My Pick: The Chiefs win a close match-up of unproven quarterbacks

Baltimore (4-2, 2-1 away)
at
New Orleans (5-1, 3-0 home)

Yes, I do agree with ESPN.com that Baltimore is “desperate for a win”…but can they put any points on the board against the Saints? Their offense has been awful this year, and the Saints’ D has been really solid at home. Furthermore, their defense looked like it was finally getting worn out from having to play three quarters of the game last week against Carolina. I mean if they could at least establish a running game, maybe they could take some of the pressure off of their past-his-prime quarterback. But that would involve benching the ineffective Jamal Lewis, who Billick is far too loyal to. I just don’t see them picking up the win here in New Orleans…maybe they’ll surprise me but their offense would have to play above themselves for it to happen.

My Pick: The Desperation Factor can only take you so far…Saints move to 6-1

Tampa Bay (2-4, 0-2 away)
at
New York Giants (4-2, 1-1 home)

The Giants are playing some damn good football right now, but I am waiting for the other shoe to drop…anyone who’s followed this team over the past two seasons knows that where there’s an overwhelmingly successful run, there’s bound to be a letdown game close behind. I think that the Buccaneers will take advantage of this opportunity to get back in the playoff hunt. Look for Bruce Gradikowski to torch the Giants’ suspect secondary. Methinks Joey Galloway (in following his feast or famine pattern so far this season) will have a monster game after being shut out last week and the Bucs will pull off another upset.

My Pick: Tampa airs out an upset win on the road

Jacksonville (3-3, 0-3 away)
at
Philadelphia (4-3, 2-1 home)

After two straight last second losses, there is no way that Donovan McNabb will let his team lose this game at home. The Jaguars offense was ineffective last week against the Texans and their defense was torched deep by David Carr and Andre Johnson and allowed their running game to get it going for the first time all season. In short, they are a mess right now. And I can’t see them getting their first road win of the season here with either a hobbled Leftwich or rusty Garrard at the helm.

My Pick: Eagles win big at home
SAFE PICK

St. Louis (4-2, 2-1 away)
at
San Diego (4-2, 2-0 home)

Between the distraction of Merriman’s positive steroid test, the loss of linebacker Shaun Philips (the team’s sack leader) for the next month and the secondary’s lackluster play for much of last week’s game in Kansas City, I am a but worried about San Diego’s defense right now. I’m sure that Rivers will rebound from his mediocre performance last week and play pretty well against an average Rams’ defensive squad, but I’m not convinced that their defense will be able to shut down the Rams’ high-octane offense. Marc Bulger has played consistently well all season, regardless of the opponent, and I don’t expect that to change on Sunday. I expect this to end up being a higher scoring game than most of you expect it to be…I’ll give the Rams the edge since they lost the last shootout they played in and they deserve redemption.

My Pick: The Rams beat the disheveled Chargers

New York Jets (4-3, 2-1 away)
at
Cleveland (1-5, 0-3 home)

I made the unfortunate mistake of picking the Browns last week, and they made me pay. I swear I must have been drunk at the time. Looking at this team, the only things they really have going for them are Charlie Frye and Braylon Edwards. That puts them in the same class as a team like the 49ers…capable of beating other bad teams and having a chance to win against average teams, but having no shot in hell against a team with an elite defense that can stop their offense. That means they have a chance this week, but a very slim one. Chad Pennington has played really well against bad teams this year and I expect that to continue. Giving their offense more balance, Leon Washington has really emerged the past few weeks as a solid running threat (20 carries for 129 yards and 2 TDs last week). I expect him to have another big game against an atrocious Browns’ run defense that is allowing over 144 rushing yards a game.

My Pick: Jets keep beating the teams that they should and stay in the playoff hunt

Indianapolis (6-0, 2-0 away)
at
Denver (5-1, 3-0 home)

The time has come for Jake Plummer to finally cost the Broncos another game. The defense has played so well this year that they have bailed him out for the most part, but he will have to make some plays if the Broncos are going to win this game. The Colts’ offense is going to put some points on the board and the Broncos will have to too if they want to win this game. The pressure is on Plummer. And as I have said many times before, when the pressure’s on him, he usually implodes. The Jay Cutler era may be close at hand…Shanahan can’t continue to let this guy hold his team back from contending for the Super Bowl.

My Pick: Colts pick up the upset…How is it an upset when they are undefeated?? Gotta love Vegas…
SAFE PICK

Pittsburgh (2-4, 0-3 away)
at
Oakland (1-5, 1-2 home)

Well, the Raiders are riding high after their first win of the season and the Steelers just allowed 41 points in a loss to Falcons. Upset city? Uh, not so much…now that the Raiders have picked up a win, I expect them to revert back to their losing ways, regardless of whether or not it is Big Ben or Batch at QB for the Steelers. They were just lucky enough to have caught a Cardinals team that was still reeling from one of the worst collapses in the history of the NFL. I doubt the Raiders win another game all year…

My Pick: Steelers win big in Oakland
SAFE PICK

Dallas (3-3, 1-2 away)
at
Carolina (4-3, 2-1 home)

Tony Romo’s first NFL start should be a pretty ugly one. He is facing one of the most ferocious front lines in the game and I expect Julius Peppers and co. to make it a long day for him. And while Dallas’s front line is pretty solid as well, their secondary is a bit suspect. I think that Delhomme and Steve Smith will continue to have success deep and the Panthers will blow out Dallas.

My Pick: Romo moves to 0-2 as the Cowboys’ starter
SAFE PICK

Here’s to hoping that this week treats me better than the last one did…
Check back on Sunday for my Monday Night pick…

Rich Eisen has stopped returning my calls...

2006-10-23T13:54:00.000-07:00

Ok, so I’m not quite ready to quit my day job…this week has not treated me very kindly so far. After a promising start, I proceeded to pick all of the 4:15 games incorrectly, leaving me at an abysmal 5-7 for the week. I am hoping to get back on track tonight but it is a pretty tough match-up…

New York Giants (3-2, 2-1 away)
at
Dallas (3-2, 2-0 home)

I think that the Giants have the momentum going into this game after a huge comeback win at Atlanta last week. Yes, I know, last week was Owens’ coming out party right? Let’s be serious here…there is no one or even two Texans defensive backs who have a prayer at guarding any decent NFL receiver. I’m sure that game helped to boost Dallas’s confidence but they haven’t proved anything to me yet. That being said, it seems that despite the success that the Giants have had over the last two seasons, they are extremely inconsistent. It seems like every time that they pick up a big win, they follow it up with a dud game the next week. I have been wavering back and forth on this pick all week…I really do think that the Giants’ offense is hitting its stride. But I learned my lesson last year…and I relearned it again this year when the Giants got blown out by Seattle a week after a huge comeback win over the Eagles. There is no way I can pick the Giants here. I still think that it could be a close game but, given their recent history, I trust the Giants here about as far as I can throw them. Owens will probably have another solid game, Glenn will have a big game, and with some better blocking, Drew Bledsoe will play well enough against the Giants’ suspect secondary to shut up all of those stupid analysts screaming for Tony Romo…

My Pick: The Giants play poorly after their big win last week and the Cowboys capitalize

From Monotony to Madness...

2006-10-21T08:19:00.000-07:00

Parity purists, eat you heart out. After a week in which every favored team won, all hell broke out last week. Six underdogs won, including three teams (the Buccaneers, Lions and Titans) that were previously winless. To cap it all off, Arizona nearly pulled off an improbable upset of the Bears on Monday night before blowing a 23-7 second-half lead without allowing an offensive touchdown. Pigskin Pandemonium at its finest. So, what’s in store for this week? More insanity? A return to normalcy? Read on and all will be revealed…

Last Week: 9-4
(SAFE PICKS: 5-1)

Season: 59-28
(SAFE PICKS: 29-6)

Pittsburgh (2-3, 0-2 away)
at
Atlanta (3-2, 2-1 home)

Look out, the Steelers are back! Big Ben picked the solid K.C. secondary apart (16 of 19 for 238 yards and 2 TDs, no INTs) and Willie Parker tore things up on the ground (21 rushes for 109 yards). Meanwhile Atlanta allowed Tiki Barber to run at will (26 rushes for 185 yards) and got blown out at home by the Giants last week. On the other side of the spectrum, the Steelers’ vaunted run defense held stud running back Larry Johnson to 26 yards on 15 carries. All of this spells big trouble for Michael Vick and the run-happy, pass-sloppy Falcons…

My Pick: Pittsburgh Steels the show from Atlanta
SAFE PICK

New England (4-1, 2-0 away)
at
Buffalo (2-4, 1-1 home)

Sure, Buffalo is at home, and they did play the Pats pretty close in the season opener…but they lost to the %$@# Lions last week! If they can’t stop Jon Kitna and Kevin Jones, how can you like their chances against Brady, Dillon and Maroney? The Bills are reeling and New England is rolling…In other words, I think that this game could get ugly…

My Pick: Patriots win easily on the road
SAFE PICK

Carolina (4-2, 2-1 away)
at
Cincinnati (3-2, 1-1 home)

The Bengals have been embarrassed in each of their last two games, first being blown out at home by the Patriots and then, last week, losing to the previously winless Buccaneers. There’s no doubt in my mind that this team is better than they have played the last two weeks. I think that Chad Johnson’s comments during the week are reflective of the team’s attitude right now: They know that they need to be more aggressive on offense and they know that they can beat the Panthers. The Panthers, although they are undefeated since Steve Smith’s return from a hamstring injury, are not perfect. Their secondary can be beaten (as evidenced by much-maligned backup QB Kyle Boller throwing three TD passes against them last week) and I think that the Bengals have the weapons, in Johnson and Houshmandzadeh, to exploit what I see to be Carolina’s most glaring weakness. Delhomme and Smith will likely return the favor against a Bengals’ pass defense that while it forces a lot of turnovers, also gives up a lot of big plays. I see this being a shootout, but I think that Carson Palmer will be up to the task. He needs to have a statement game and prove to the league that he’s healthy and dangerous again, and I think that this will be it.

My Pick: Palmer leads the Bengals to their highest scoring performance of the season and a must-needed win

San Diego (4-1, 2-1 away)
at
Kansas City (2-3, 1-1 home)

Yeah, the Chiefs got their butts handed to them last week in Pittsburgh…but I can assure you that won’t happen again this week. Coming off a neck injury, Larry Johnson was tentative last week and really never got it going against a great Steelers’ rush defense. This week he is facing nearly as tough a task against a Chargers squad that is ranked second in the AFC in rush defense. Still, I expect him to come up with a much better game than last week as I think he’s shaken off the jitters. Damon Huard had an unimpressive game last week in Pittsburgh, but much of that was because the Chiefs were too conservative, never one trying to throw the ball down the field in the first half. Word out of Kansas City is that they are not making that mistake again…for better or worse, anything in their playbook is fair game this week. The real key to this game is how the Chiefs’ offensive line plays. If they allow Damon Huard time in the pocket to throw the ball, I really think that Tony Gonzalez can capitalize with some big plays in the middle of the field. The Chargers have a spectacular defense, but their one weakness, other than their head coach, is their safeties, Terrance Kiel and Marlon McCree. The key to beating the Chargers is exploiting this weakness and I think that Tony Gonzalez is just the kind of weapon to do so. I also think that they will try to look for Kennison deep every once in awhile to switch things up. The Chiefs will also benefit from the return of Dante Hall this week, one of the most dangerous returners in the game. And their pass defense, other than last week against the Steelers, has been much improved this year. I am discounting that game, because we all knew that Pittsburgh and Big Ben were due for a breakout game. I think that they will be able to hold their own against the Chargers’ passing game. But will they be able to contain a running duo the likes of which have never been seen (they call themselves Tenacious T)? Well, I think that Turner and Tomlinson will be able to pick up some yards on the ground, but I think that the combination of a solid defensive performance by the secondary, some big special teams plays from Hall and a passing attack featuring Gonzalez will lift the Chiefs to the upset victory at home. Remember too that this game is in Arrowhead…one of the toughest places to play in all of football.

My Pick: Chiefs upset the Chargers

Green Bay (1-4, 1-1 away)
at
Miami (1-5, 1-1 home)

Really Really Ridiculously Misleading Stat of the Week: Zach Thomas leads the league in tackles with 60. Anyone who has watched Miami play at all this year can see that Thomas has lost a step and has been prone to mistakes. ESPN wants me to believe that the Dolphins’ defense will respond to his comments suggesting that they should play a high school football team so they can get a win; personally, I don’t think it will make a difference. Their defense looks washed up and I just don’t see any passion in their play. And I haven’t even started with their offense…
That’s because this week Harrington should have decent numbers against a Packers defense that couldn’t stop my IM football team from scoring (did I mention that we were the only team in our league not to make the playoffs?). If Favre has anything left though, he will find a way to win against a 1-5 team led by Joey Harrington…Miami’s degraded defense will not be much of a factor.

My Pick: Packers win but Zach Thomas continues to pile up meaningless tackles

Detroit (1-5, 0-3 away)
at
New York Jets (3-3, 1-2 home)

The Lions picked up their first win of the year last week…against the Bills. Am I supposed to be impressed? I really blame Buffalo’s overrated defense in that one…127 rushing yards from Kevin Jones? I mean, really…the Bills should be embarrassed right now. Speaking of Kevin Jones…I think he will come back down to earth in this game despite the fact that the Jets are in the middle of the pack as far as rushing defenses go. He’s just not that good a back and he’s running behind a patchwork offensive line. Roy Williams will probably have a solid game and the Lions may score a touchdown or two…but Chad Pennington will tear Detroit’s defense apart. Look for huge games from Coles and Crotchery and a Jets win.

My Pick: Jets move above .500
SAFE PICK

Philadelphia (4-2, 2-1 away)
at
Tampa Bay (1-4, 1-2 home)

The Buccaneers gutted out their first win of the season at home against the Bengals last week, but this week they face an even tougher task. The Eagles are the class of the NFC and coming off of a last-second loss to New Orleans last week, they are going to come out strong. Tampa’s defense has been inconsistent all year while the Eagles’ offense has been pretty damn consistent, thanks to the reliable play of my choice for first-half MVP, Donovan McNabb. I expect huge games out of him and Westbrook and a big win for the Eagles.

My Pick: Eagles rebound with a big win
SAFE PICK

Jacksonville (3-2, 0-2 away)
at
Houston (1-4, 1-2 home)

I don’t care whether it’s Byron Leftwich, (who’s questionable with an ankle injury) or David Garrard (who’s nearly as good as Leftwich) at quarterback for the Jags; it won’t matter. Maurice Drew-Jones and Fred Taylor are going to run all over the field against the Texans, who are allowing over 145 rushing yards per game. I’m sure the passing game will make some contributions as well, but the running game will be more than enough to lift the Jaguars to victory on Sunday.

My Pick: Jaguars embarrass the Texans in Houston despite Leftwich’s injury
SAFE PICK

Denver (4-1, 1-1 away)
at
Cleveland (1-4, 0-2 home)

I know the stats. The Broncos have only allowed one touchdown all year. The Browns’ offense is abysmal (11th in the AFC in passing and just ahead of the last ranked Texans in rushing). But I have a feeling this is going to be a close game. You can’t keep winning, like the Broncos have been, by sitting on the ball for half of the game. Eventually you need to make some plays in the passing game. Shannahan is showing no confidence in Jake Plummer right now, not that I blame him. But my question is: If you don’t trust your quarterback and you’ve killed his confidence, why do you continue to start him every week? If Plummer struggles on Sunday against Cleveland’s 9th ranked (AFC) pass defense, which I expect him to, we may see a quarterback change sometime over the next couple weeks. You can’t continue to waste the efforts of their defense like this and their offensive players, specifically Javon Walker, are miffed that they aren’t playing more aggressively and are limited by a mediocre quarterback. You have to think too that Rueben Droughns will be motivated to play well in this game against his former team. I’m not expecting an outstanding game from him, but something more than the 3.3 yards a carry he’s averaged so far this season. And Frye will find Braylon Edwards for a couple big gains. The Denver D can’t keep playing at this level forever…especially with no support from their offense. Tatum Bell will have a decent game, but the Broncos’ stagnant passing game will keep the game close and the Browns will have a shot at the upset here…

My Pick: The Broncos are finally punished for Plummer’s futility

Washington (2-4, 1-2 away)
at
Indianapolis (5-0, 3-0 home)

I’m not sure if I have ever seen a shakier 5-0 team than this year’s Colts. While their pass defense is pretty solid, their run defense has been truly terrible, ranked last in the NFL with 166.8 rushing yards allowed per game. Trust me, Clinton Portis is salivating at the prospect of playing against them on Sunday. The Redskins have gotten away from the run during the last couple weeks, which other than their inconsistent defensive performances, has been the biggest factor in their struggles. As Clinton Portis goes, so do the ‘skins: Portis has had under 20 carries and 76 yards or less in all of their losses this year; in their only quality win, against the Jaguars, he had his only 100 yard game of the season and 26 carries. Last season, they won their last five games of the season; Portis had 23 carries or more and over 100 yards in all of them. Gibbs realizes that they need to get back to running the ball and they will run a lot on Sunday and run successfully. The Colts are too shaky a team to be 6-0 and the ‘skins are desperate right now…the perfect recipe for an upset.

My Pick: Washington rides Portis to an upset of Indy

Arizona (1-5, 0-2 away)
at
Oakland (0-5, 0-2 home)

My initial feeling after the Monday night debacle was that the Cardinals would be too demoralized to go to Oakland and play well. But I really like Matt Leinart’s attitude. He took the loss very well despite the fact that he knows that he played well enough to win the game and it was taken away from him by awful coaching. He didn’t point any fingers even though some of his teammates made some egregious errors that contributed to the loss (*cough* Edgerrin James and the offensive line). He looks like a veteran leader and I’m sure that he will bounce back just fine. It will help, of course, to be playing the Raiders who are probably the worst NFL team that I have ever seen. I expect Leinart, Boldin and even James to have big games and to take out their frustrations on a team that doesn’t have the personnel to fight back.
Really Really Ridiculously Misleading Stat of the Week 2: The Raiders have allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL. I guess that’s what happens when you get blown out so badly that teams just run for half the game to kill the clock.

My Pick: Cardinals bounce back with a big win in Oakland

Minnesota (3-2, 1-1 away)
at
Seattle (4-1, 2-0 home)

I could go on a long-winded rant explaining how the Seahawks have a gazillion good WRs and that their passing attack will probably be the most dangerous in the league once Shaun Alexander comes back and they actually have a running game. I could also tell you that Minnesota’s defense, while solid, will not be able to contain Seattle’s receivers…and that while the Rams were able to exploit the Seahawks’ secondary, the Vikings don’t have the weapons to do so. But really, the most important factor to consider here is this: Remember how I referred to Arrowhead as “one of the toughest places to play in all of football”? Well, Qwest Field IS the toughest place to play in all of football. Seattle is 2-0 at home this year, and they were undefeated there a year ago.

My Pick: Seahawks win easily at home
SAFE PICK

And that’s all she wrote…until my Monday Night pick…

Ready, Break!

2006-10-14T21:28:00.000-07:00

As I am on break, and at home visiting my family for the weekend, I don’t have much time, so my analysis may not be as detailed as usual. Please bear with me…

Last Week: 10-4
(SAFE PICKS: 5-0)

Season: 50-24
(SAFE PICKS: 24-5)

New York Giants (2-2, 1-1 away)
at
Atlanta (3-1, 2-0 home)

While I do think that last week’s superb defensive showing against the Redskins may have been just an aberration brought on more by desperation than anything else, I don’t really see the Falcons capitalizing on what I see to be the real weak point of the Giants’ defense: their secondary. Let’s face it, Vick is not much of a passer and probably never will be. And this year the Falcons have decided to focus completely on running the ball. I think that the Giants will be able to hold their own against the Falcons’ rushing attack, and I think that Tiki Barber will build off of his success last week and have another solid game. The Falcons’ rush defense has been far too inconsistent this year (just as it was last year), leading me to believe that they are going to get burned for some huge plays if they play a talented back.

My Pick: Giants upset Atlanta

Buffalo (2-3, 1-2 away)
at
Detroit (0-5, 0-2 home)

At first glance, this looks like a great opportunity for the Lions to pick up their first win. But thinking about it a little more, I realized that the Lions have been blown out by all of the teams with good defenses that they have played and have kept things close against the teams with awful defenses. I still think (despite the way they were manhandled by the Bears last week) that Buffalo’s defense is pretty solid. And let’s be honest, Detroit’s defense is pretty bad. I would be willing to disregard all of this, if I felt that the Lions were a desperate team, but I get the vibe that the majority of these guys just don’t care. I hate picking a team quarterbacked by J.P. Losman to win, but it looks I am forced to here…

My Pick: The Bills keep the Lions winless

Philadelphia (4-1, 2-0 away)
at
New Orleans (4-1, 2-0 home)

The Eagles seem to be on the top of their game right now, but I expect there to be a bit of a letdown after their huge win against Dallas last week. I also think that the Saints, playing in the Super Dome, are a pretty tough team to beat. It’s going to be a close game, but my gut tells me that the Saints will pull it off.

My Pick: Saints pick up a huge a win at home

Tennessee (0-5, 0-3 away)
at
Washington (2-3, 1-1 home)

The Redskins lost in embarrassing fashion against the Giants last week…rest assured, they will take out their frustrations on the Titans. Tennessee played a close game against the Colts last week, but let’s be honest, it was only because Indianapolis was looking ahead, assuming that the victory would be handed to them. Bottom line: the ‘skins need this game, they’re playing at home and they will win easily.

My Pick: ‘skins win big
SAFE PICK

Miami (1-4, 0-3 away)
at
New York Jets (2-3, 0-2 home)

In the battle of mediocre AFC East teams with no running games, I’ll take the Jets. Well, they are at home. And Chad Pennington is a much stronger quarterback than Joey Harrington. I’ll be honest…I considered picking the upset here, but I’m not completely sold on Harrington being much better than Culpepper. He may prove me wrong, but I wouldn’t bet on it…

My Pick: Jets win against a familiar foe

San Diego (3-1, 1-1 away)
at
San Francisco (2-3, 2-1 home)

In the battle of California (the Raiders don’t count), I’ll take the team with the better offense, defense and special teams. Game, set, match!

My Pick: Chargers roll on the road
SAFE PICK

Houston (1-3, 0-1 away)
at
Dallas (2-2, 1-0 home)

What does O-W-E-N-S spell? In my dictionary, it spells dysfunction. Owens’ complaints about his role in the offense during last week’s loss to the Eagles were mistimed and absurd. He was targeted far more than any other receiver on the field and gave up on an under-thrown pass and allowed it to be intercepted when he could have broken up the play. He then proceeded to get into a verbal spat with the receiving coach during the week. The Cowboys really should beat the Texans handily at home, but they seem to be reeling right now, and I can’t imagine that Bledsoe and Glenn are taking too kindly to Owens’ behavior and comments as of late. As for the Texans…everyone in the media keeps saying that Carr will have an awful game this week because he will “finally face a strong pass rush”. Um, didn’t he already play the Colts and Redskins this year? Last time I checked, they both have pretty strong pass rushes as well. And while his team lost both games, Carr played pretty well. Sure, he is still taking sacks this year, but he is also completing a lot of long passes to Andre Johnson. As the Cowboys have what I perceive to be a weak secondary, I expect that he will be able to do the same on Sunday. I know that the Texans have no defense to speak of, but I get the feeling that it might not matter this week. The Cowboys seem susceptible to an upset right now, and I think that it just might happen.

My Pick: Texans shock the Cowboys

Seattle (3-1, 1-1 away)
at
St. Louis (4-1, 2-0 home)

The Rams’ 4-1 record could not be more deceiving…If not for inexcusable fumbles by Brett Favre and Kurt Warner in the red zone during the last minute, they would be 2-3 right now. The Seahawks, even without a solid running game, will expose St. Louis as the middle-of-the-pack team that they are. Steven Jackson may lead the league in rushing yards but Seattle’s underrated run defense should change that on Sunday. And while the Rams’ defense is better than it has been in recent years, Matt Hasselbeck and Seattle’s never ending supply of solid receivers should be able to systematically tear their secondary apart. Would you expect anything less from the Seahawks after having an extra week to prepare for this game?

My Pick: Seattle wins easily
SAFE PICK

Cincinnati (3-1, 2-0 away)
at
Tampa Bay (0-4, 0-2 home)

I flirted with picking an upset in this game, but I just can’t see Marvin Lewis not properly preparing his team for this game. He has had an extra week to get them ready, and they have to be pretty embarrassed after their loss at home to the Patriots in their last game. I do think that Bruce Gradikowski and the Bucs will score some points and put up a fight, but they’re not going to beat an angry Bengals team that has had two weeks to prepare for them.

My Pick: The Bengals win on the road

Carolina (3-2, 1-1 away)
at
Baltimore (4-1, 2-0 home)

Let’s face it: Steve McNair, at this point in his career, isn’t much better than Kyle Boller. The Ravens’ defense may be the best in the AFC, but their offense is pretty stagnant, as they showed on Monday during their 13-3 loss to the Broncos. And as long as a washed-up Jamal Lewis is playing over Mike Anderson, they will continue to be without a consistent running game, to go along with their pedestrian passing game. This means that the Ravens’ defense will continue to spend more time on the field than they should, which will start to wear them out. If there’s one receiver that you don’t want to face when you’re starting to tire, it’s Steve Smith. He was quiet last week, but I get the feeling that he will make his presence felt on Sunday and help hand the Ravens their second straight setback.

My Pick: Panthers upset the offense-challenged Ravens

Kansas City (2-2, 1-1 away)
at
Pittsburgh (1-3, 1-1 home)

Sure, the Chiefs’ pass defense has been much improved this year but, at the risk of sounding cliché, it is do-or-die time for the Steelers and Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh will be a desperate team on Sunday, and, not to take anything away from the Chiefs, but I can’t see them losing this game.

My Pick: The Steelers get back on track
SAFE PICK

Oakland (0-4, 0-2 away)
at
Denver (3-1, 2-0 home)

Let’s see…the worst offense in the league, on the road, against one of the better defenses in the league. I think that pretty much sums it up. Except for this: Disregard any positive plays that Plummer makes this week because the Raiders’ defense is almost as bad as their offense.

My Pick: Broncos win at home for the second time in seven days
SAFE PICK

Monday Night:
(I’m picking this one now since it is really obvious who is going to win so it doesn’t merit its own post)

Chicago (5-0, 2-0 away)
at
Arizona (1-4, 1-2 home)

The Bears are playing better than any team in the league right now, and I think that they will continue to roll on Monday Night. It will be a long night for both Leinart and the Arizona defense…

My Pick: DA BEARS!
(Dennis Green better start looking for references…)
SAFE PICK

Alright, time to get back to being lazy and hanging out with the family…check back next week…

Just Another Manic Monday?!?

2006-10-09T12:14:00.000-07:00

I’m running late (again) so let’s get right to this:

Baltimore (4-0, 2-0 away)
at
Denver (2-1, 1-0 home)

Someway, somehow, every team favored by Vegas to win on Sunday did so…As a result, despite picking 10 of the 13 games correctly, I am two points behind two other people in my pick ‘em league. Now, there is a chance for me to redeem myself tonight and make one of those games back. The question is: Did they both pick the favorites to win across the board? I mean, if you are really feeling lucky enough to get away with picking 13 out of 14 favorites to win, what’s to stop you from making it 14 for 14? Well, Jake Plummer for starters…The Ravens have the top rushing defense in the league (allowing a mere 63.3 rushing yards per game on 2.6 yards per carry) and should be able to contain Denver’s running game, which the Broncos have relied on heavily during their last two wins. This will force Jake Plummer to throw the ball a lot more than he has in their last two games when Shannahan was able to keep him from hurting them by simply managing the game and handing off to Tatum Bell. Let me tell you, this is going to be an ugly game. The Broncos have a superb defense also (3rd overall in the NFL) and the Ravens have a pretty mediocre offense. Still, matched up against a great defense, I’d take McNair over Plummer any day of the week even if he doesn’t have the weapons around him that Plummer does. Mark my words…Plummer is going to turn the ball over…a lot.

My Pick: 13 for 14 is still pretty crazy, but Plummer blows Vegas’s shot at a perfect week
(i.e. Ravens win!)

That’s all for this week…

Hopefully this isn't the beer talking...

2006-10-07T17:34:00.000-07:00

Sorry about the lateness and brevity of this post…drunken debauchery intervened last night and I am now scrambling to get this out before nightfall…

Last Week: 10-4
(SAFE PICKS: 4-2)

Season: 40-20
(SAFE PICKS: 19-5)

Buffalo (2-2, 1-1 away)
at
Chicago (4-0, 2-0 home)

While the Bills’ defense has looked pretty good this year (although they are only 8th overall in the AFC), their passing game is still their Achilles’ heel. J.P. Losman has put up better numbers this year but they are still not putting points on the board and he is still making mistakes at inopportune times. The Bears’ defense made Matt Hasselbeck look like J.P. Losman last week; what will they make J.P Losman look like this week? I shudder at the thought…

My Pick: Bears win another blowout at home
SAFE PICK

St. Louis (3-1, 1-1 away)
at
Green Bay (1-3, 0-2 home)

This game should be a shootout…I really don’t trust either defense (they are ranked 10th and last in the NFC respectively) and both teams have pretty good passing games. Favre should have a big game…if he doesn’t, there are no excuses. The Rams don’t have a great pass rush and he has probably the most talented group of receivers that he has ever had (Driver, Jennings, Ferguson and Robinson). The Packers have a lot of holes, but they should be able to put up points at will against mediocre defenses…That’s not to say that the Rams won’t score a lot here too because they will. But come on, if Favre has anything left, he’ll pull this one out…

My Pick: Packers win as Favre has a huge day passing the ball

Tennessee (0-4, 0-2 away)
at
Indianapolis (4-0, 2-0 home)

Let’s see…The Titans have a rookie quarterback starting, no running game and a defense that can’t stop the run or the pass (unless it’s coming out of the hands of Daunte Culpepper). This could get ugly…

My Pick: Colts Win BIG
SAFE PICK

Detroit (0-4, 0-2 away)
at
Minnesota (2-2, 1-1 home)

The Lions are still looking for its first win…they better keep looking. The Vikings’ defense has been solid all year and I don’t expect them to crack against a very ordinary Lions’ offense that has looked better than it actually is during the past couple weeks. Maybe Brad Johnson will finally get things going too?

My Pick: Vikings win at home

Miami (1-3, 0-2 away)
at
New England (3-1, 1-1 home)

Given my recent history with applying the SAFE PICK tag to games involving New England, it would seem logical for me to avoid using it here. Not a chance! Daunte Culpepper has struggled avoiding the anemic pass rushes and reading the poor coverage schemes of Texans and Titans the last two weeks…He is going to have a very long day against a team that disguises its blitzes and coverage schemes better than anyone else in the league. There is an off-chance that Culpepper will sit to rest a “bruised shoulder” but personally I think that this is a ploy and Saban is looking for an opportunity to try out Joey Harrington to see if he can do any better with this offense than Culpepper has so far. So much for contending for a Super Bowl…

My Pick: Patriots win big at home
SAFE PICK

Tampa Bay (0-3, 0-1 away)
at
New Orleans (3-1, 1-0 home)

Taking over an 0-3 team is an arduous enough task for a rookie quarterback…compound that with an ineffective offensive line, a stagnant running game and a road game against a team that excells in all of these areas and has as a solid pass defense and you are in for an ugly outcome, not to mention a really really ridiculously long sentence…

My Pick: Saints win big at home
SAFE PICK

Washington (2-2, 1-1 away)
at
New York Giants (1-2, 0-1 home)

All bets are off in this game…The Redskins’ secondary is still depleted and banged-up so Eli Manning should have a good day passing the ball; on the other hand, the Giants’ secondary is awful so I expect huge games from Brunell and Santana Moss. Barber and Portis, being the premier backs that they are, will likely both end up with over 100 yards rushing as well. This is going to be a wild one…I'll take the 'skins, just because they look like they are hitting their stride offensively.

My Pick: Redskins win a shootout on the road

Cleveland (1-3, 1-1 away)
at
Carolina (2-2, 1-1 home)

The Panthers’ offense looks to be rounding back into form now that Steve Smith is back, but I’m still not sold on their defense. Their secondary looks much shakier than it was last year and as far as I know there are no injuries to blame for this. I think that, if the Browns’ offensive line can give Frye some time in the pocket, he will find Braylon Edwards open deep. Of course, the Panthers’ front line are still pretty damn tough to block…

My Pick: Panthers but they better get a good performance out of Peppers and co. or the Browns will make it interesting...

Kansas City (1-2, 0-1 away)
at
Arizona (1-3, 1-1 home)

This is a surprisingly bad match-up for Matt Leinart in his first NFL start…While the Chiefs’ once spectacular offense has sputtered, their defense has really taken off. Their passing defense is ranked second in the AFC and as such, I can’t see Leinart having much success here. The Cardinals will need to get a good game out of James in order for them to have a shot at winning…even then, I can’t see them slowing down Larry Johnson. I’ll take the Chiefs here…

My Pick: Kansas City wins on the road

Oakland (0-3, 0-1 away)
at
San Francisco (1-3, 1-1 home)

While both of these teams are bad, one is in a class of its own. While neither team has any discernible talent on defense, other than a disgruntled wide receiver who wants to be traded, Oakland has no discernible talent on offense either. The 49ers are at least headed in the right direction…they have a talented young quarterback in Alex Smith, a solid receiving threat in Antonio Bryant and an emerging running back in Frank Gore. Plus, they are playing at home. That should be more than enough to propel them to victory here…

My Pick: 49ers beat the hapless Raiders
SAFE PICK

New York Jets (2-2, 2-0 away)
at
Jacksonville (2-2, 2-0 home)

The Jets are 2-0 on the road; the Jags are 2-0 at home…something’s got to give. Pennington has been very successful this year throwing the ball and I think that Crotchery and Coles are solid receivers. They should be able to pick up some yards against Jacksonville’s secondary which has looked a bit leaky the past couple weeks. The Jets’ problem is on the other side of the ball. They rank 12th in the AFC in rushing defense, allowing just over 140 rushing yards per contest. They will have a tough time containing Maurice Drew-Jones and Fred Taylor who have looked great the last couple weeks.

My Pick: Jags run all over the Jets

Dallas (2-1, 1-1 away)
at
Philadelphia (3-1, 1-1 home)

This is, of course, the marquee match-up this week. Owens and McNabb face each other for the first time since they parted ways so inharmoniously last season. Now, I am pretty sure that if McNabb had all, or most, of his weapons at his disposal, the Eagles would win this game. But, Brian Westbrook may miss the game and even if he plays, will be slowed by his knee injury. Donte Stallworth won’t be playing because of a lingering hamstring injury. Reggie Brown, the number two receiver, is listed on the injury list as questionable with a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, all of the Cowboys’ players, T.O. included, are healthy and pumped up for this game. Can McNabb win this game by himself on offense? I’d like to see it happen but I can’t imagine that he will be able to match the offensive production of Bledsoe, Glenn, Owens, Witten and Julius Jones when his only viable option is L.J. Smith, his tight end.

My Pick: Cowboys win Round One of T.O/McNabb (but won’t have the last laugh)

Pittsburgh (1-2, 0-1 away)
at
San Diego (2-1, 1-0 home)

I initially was tempted to pick the upset here, but it really doesn’t make any sense. Rothelisberger has been awful throwing the ball so far this year and the Chargers, with their number one ranked pass defense, are hardly the team you would expect him to get back on track against. Still, there’s always a chance that Schottenheimer will blow a close game with a stupid move, which is why this isn’t a SAFE PICK…

My Pick: Chargers prove to be a poor antidote for Big Ben’s rusty gears

That’s all for now…I’ll be back tomorrow with my Monday Night pick…

It Sounds Like Somebody's Got a Case of the Mondays...

2006-10-02T10:23:00.000-07:00

When examining my picks this week, do me a favor and just look at the overall picture…my SAFE PICKs didn’t fare quite as well as I did overall. This has led one of my friends to question the SAFEness (yes I just invented a word) of my SAFE PICKs and even go so far as to suggest that I stop making them. I assure you, I am not listening to him…By the end of the season my SAFE PICK percentage should accurately reflect my picking ability. It is silly to make such a harsh judgment based on such a small sample size.

Also, I can’t say that I was complaining when the Patriots decimated the Bengals in Cincinnati last night…I just felt that the absence of their entire secondary would bode well for the Bengals’ explosive passing attack. As it turned out, it didn’t. As he usually does when everyone doubts his team’s chances, Belichick found a way to prove everyone wrong. And could Lawrence Maroney be the biggest steal of this year’s draft? Wow…

Anyway, let’s shift gears towards tonight’s game:

Green Bay (1-2, 1-0 away)
at
Philadelphia (2-1, 0-1 home)

The stats seem to say it all: The game is being played in Philadelphia, where Brett Favre is 0-5 in his career. The Packers’ defense is allowing 388 yards a game of offense, which places them dead last in the NFC. The Eagles, led by Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook who are both having career years so far, are averaging 436 yards of total offense, tops in the NFC by nearly 50 yards per game. So all of this adds up to mean that the Eagles will win in a blowout, right? Well, I’m not so sure…The Packers’ passing game has really developed over the last couple weeks and I’m not sold on the Eagles’ secondary. If the Packers’ offensive line can give Favre some time to throw the ball, this could be a close game…

My Pick: Eagles win but have to work for it

Here we go again...

2006-09-29T14:01:00.000-07:00

Last second choke-fests aside (damn you Tampa defense and Warner!), I thought that the most surprising outcome last week was the Pats’ home loss to the Broncos. Don’t get me wrong: Denver has a talented team. They have a very underrated defense and they (as usual) seem to have a solid running game. They also have a solid receiving corps. My problem with them, which makes it impossible for me to take them seriously, is their quarterback situation. Jake Plummer is, hands down, the worst starting quarterback on any team that has a shot at the playoffs. Therefore, when they are in a match-up against a team like the Pats, which I would consider a toss-up, I find it impossible to pick the Broncos to win. They did win however, and Shannahan exposed an unusual inequality in the Pats’ offense: at this point in the season their running game is much better than their passing game. Denver stacked the line and forced Brady to pass, and it worked really well. It’s not that the Pats don’t have talented receivers; it’s just that, other than Troy Brown, they are inexperienced. I expect them to develop as the season progresses and I think before the year is over, Brady will have just as good chemistry with this group of receivers that he has had in the past with Patten, Branch et al. Look for Doug Gabriel (who I think is just as talented as Deion Branch) to emerge as Brady’s go-to-guy…

Anyway, enough of that. Let’s move on to this week’s games:

Last Week: 10-4
(SAFE PICKS: 6-1)

Season: 30-16
(SAFE PICKS: 15-3)

Arizona (1-2, 0-1 away)
at
Atlanta (2-1, 1-0 home)

It’s difficult to place much trust in Kurt Warner right now…he had 5 turnovers last week, including a fumbled snap at the St. Louis 18 yard line that ended the game when Rackers was in position for a chip shot FG that would have won the game for Arizona. On the other hand, I have even less faith in Atlanta’s defense. They looked okay during their first two games, but against New Orleans their rush defense looked, if anything, more porous than last year’s. I expect Edgerrin James to have a big game…did the CBSsportsline.com fantasy analysts (who called this as a tough match-up for James) even watch the Monday night game? I mean…I understand that the Falcons held Carolina and Tampa Bay to low rushing totals, but they also built up big leads against both of those teams so they were forced to throw the ball to try to come back. As for the Atlanta secondary (which has been pretty solid so far), they have a tough match-up against the Cardinals’ superbly talented receiving duo of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, especially with DeAngelo Hall banged up. If Warner didn’t look as shaky as he does right now, I would pick Arizona to get the upset without a second thought, but I really don’t know what to expect out of him on Sunday. If he has a slightly above average game on Sunday and doesn’t turn the ball over, I think that the Cardinals will win. I think that Warner will come through…he knows that if he doesn’t, he may not have the starting job much longer…

My Pick: Cardinals pull off the upset

Minnesota (2-1, 1-0 away)
at
Buffalo (1-2, 0-1 home)

The Vikings don’t look like a very talented team on paper, but they have played solid so far this year. Maybe getting rid of Mike Tice was their best off-season move…Childress has done an excellent coaching job with this squad so far. They may end up competing for the last playoff spot in the NFC, and when you have Brad Johnson as your QB and 0 standout receivers, that really says a lot about the coaching staff. I don’t know what to make of Buffalo…McGahee is really emerging as a great back this season, but Losman, while he has shown flashes, is still one of the least reliable quarterbacks in the league. I have a feeling that the Vikings’ contrastingly consistent cornerbacks (Smoot and Winfield) will give him fits on Sunday…

My Pick: Vikings win on the road

Dallas (1-1, 0-1 away)
at
Tennessee (0-3, 0-1 home)

Tennessee’s secondary is awful…and so is their pass rush. Regardless of whether or not T.O. plays, I think that the Cowboys will win this game in a blowout. If I were Bill Parcells, I would sit Owens and let his finger heal for another week. They’ll need him next week against the Eagles…

My Pick: Cowboys in a laugher
SAFE PICK

San Francisco (1-2, 0-1 away)
at
Kansas City (0-2, 0-1 home)

Kansas City’s rush defense is awful but the ‘9ers won’t really be able to exploit it because Frank Gore is banged up. The Chiefs’ secondary actually looks pretty solid so far, and should be able to hold its own against Alex Smith and Antonio Bryant. The Chiefs won’t really be able to exploit the weak San Francisco secondary with Damon Huard at quarterback, but I expect a huge game out of stud running back Larry Johnson, who has been relatively quiet thus far…

My Pick: Chiefs pick up their first win

Indianapolis (3-0, 1-0 away)
at
New York Jets (2-1, 0-1 home)

The Jets have looked pretty solid so far this season, with a healthy Pennington doing an excellent job of moving the chains. I still feel like their defense is a question point though…Can they really be expected to hold down the explosive passing game of the Colts?

My Pick: Colts ride Manning’s arm to a win on the road

New Orleans (3-0, 2-0 away)
at
Carolina (1-2, 0-1 home)

I honestly don’t feel like there is much separating these two teams...they are both very talented and very flawed. The Panthers do not have a running game to speak of; the Saints are very inconsistent defensively. So what separates the two in this game, other than it being in Carolina? I feel like there will be a major letdown for the Saints after their emotional win over Atlanta in the Superdome last Sunday. Also, we still don’t really know what to expect out of the Panthers until we see them play with a healthy and rust-free Steve Smith.

My Pick: Carolina moves to 2-0 with Steve Smith in the lineup.

San Diego (2-0, 1-0 away)
at
Baltimore (3-0, 1-0 home)

Bill Simmons is really high on the Chargers right now, even going so far as to rank them #1 overall in his power rankings. Maybe they are a great team, but in my mind they haven’t proved anything yet…they played the two worst teams in the league (Oakland and Tennessee) in their first 2 games. I love you Bill, but let’s wait and see how they do against a team that has a chance of making the playoffs before drawing any crazy conclusions…This will be the first time that new QB Philip Rivers will be tested and I expect the cagey, veteran Ravens’ defense to get the better of this match-up.

My Pick: Ravens pull off the (upset?!? What is Vegas thinking?)
SAFE PICK

Miami (1-2, 0-1 away)
at
Houston (0-3, 0-2 home)

I cracked up when I read the headline for the analysis of this game on ESPN.com: Running game key for both teams. Right…Let’s be honest. The Dolphins need Culpepper to get back on track because they have the receivers for him throw to. If he can’t throw on the Texans, who have no pass-rush or secondary, then what team can he throw against? If he doesn’t have a good game this week, he might as well call it a career. I tried to defend Culpepper earlier in the season, but to be honest, after seeing him struggle against the defensively challenged Titans last week, I think that we may have a Joey Harrington sighting in Miami soon. The Texans have no running game and no defense…but against the Dolphins I don’t think that’s going to matter. What they do have is what Miami should have: a solid passing game. I expect big days out of David Carr (who leads the NFL in QB rating) and his top two targets, Eric Moulds and Andre Johnson.

My Pick: Houston picks up its first win of the season against the hapless Dolphins

Detroit (0-3, 0-1 away)
at
St. Louis (2-1, 1-0 home)

So…who is first to go in Detroit? Mike Martz or Matt Millen? Bets please…

My Pick: St. Louis moves to 3-1
SAFE PICK

New England (2-1, 1-0 away)
at
Cincinnati (3-0, 1-0 home)

The Patriots look a little discombobulated at the moment…Denver exposed their passing game last week by loading up to stop the run and Brady was unable to capitalize. I think that the Bengals will take a page out of Shanahan’s book and do the same thing again this week. It may work now, but only inexperience and undeveloped chemistry stand in the way of the Patriots’ passing game returning to its usual high level. I expect it to look a lot better this week and to keep improving from here on out. By the end of the season, the Patriots will be a lot tougher to beat than they are right now. Back to this game…the Pats’ defense is banged up and the Bengals have weapons all over the field…and it’s in Cincinnati. I hate to make SAFE PICKs against my team, but I think this one’s in the bag.

My Pick: Bengals remain undefeated

Cleveland (0-3, 0-1 away)
at
Oakland (0-2, 0-1 home)

Cleveland is winless on the year, but I have been impressed so far by the play of Charlie Frye and Braylon Edwards. The Raiders, on the other hand, have done nothing remotely impressive this season. I know they’re the home team here, playing against another winless team, but how can you justify picking the Raiders to win against anyone this year? They are beyond awful. At best, they will win 2 games this year…

My Pick: Browns pick up their first win on the road
SAFE PICK

Jacksonville (2-1, 0-1 away)
at
Washington (1-2, 0-1 home)

The Redskins looked awful offensively, and normally I wouldn’t make judgments about a team based on a performance against the Texans, but the Redskins aren’t your normal team. Mark Brunell, as my next-door neighbor (who is a huge ‘skins fan) pointed out, is fueled by confidence. When things are going well, he is excellent, but when things start to go south and his confidence is drained, his game turns sour. I think that Brunell, coming off of his 22 straight completions against Houston, is pretty confident at the moment and that will carry over into this game. Jacksonville should be able to exploit the Redskins’ banged-up secondary and the Jags will probably have another good day running the ball, but something in my gut is telling me that the Redskins will “gut” out this game. It’s going to be a close one…

My Pick: Redskins pull out a close one

Seattle (3-0, 1-0 away)
at
Chicago (3-0, 1-0 home)

This looks to be the most intriguing game on the bill this week. Both of these teams have looked impressive this year and look to be the class of the NFC. Chicago has returned its dominating defense of last year but it’s their offense that has turned some heads so far this year. After being abysmal last season, Rex Grossman and Muhsin Muhammad have given Chicago a huge lift in the passing game. Unfortunately, their running game doesn’t look as good as last season as Anthony Thomas has really struggled (averaging only 3 yards per carry so far this year).
The Seahawks, after their acquisition of Deion Branch from the Patriots, now have 4 solid wide-outs. Keep in mind that without Branch they already had the most balanced passing game in the NFC last year. Now they will be even more difficult for opposing secondaries to defend…if they had a healthy Shaun Alexander (last year’s NFL MVP) they would be the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Still, their running game isn’t half bad with Alexander out: Maurice Morris is a very capable runner (4.5 career yards per carry). He should be at least as effective as a gimpy Shaun Alexander has been the last few weeks. Seattle also has a balanced and very underrated defense.
This seems like a tough pick to make, but when I think about the match-ups (Chicago’s offense vs. Seattle’s defense and vice versa) I see Chicago having a more difficult time stopping Seattle’s 4 WR sets than Seattle will have stopping Chicago’s emerging passing game. And even without Alexander, I have to give the Seahawks a huge edge in the running game. Seattle looks hungry right now…they feel that they had the Super Bowl taken away from them last season by the refs and they want another crack at it.

My Pick: Seahawks win the battle of the NFC frontrunners
SAFE PICK

And that’s all she wrote…until my pick for the Monday Night game…

Heart(ache/break/burn)

2006-09-25T12:58:00.000-07:00

This season’s recurring theme: Teams I picked to win blowing games in the final seconds.
Last week, of course, we had the Eagles inexplicably blowing a 21-7 4th quarter lead to the Giants. This week? First off, we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Up by 1 with under two minutes to go, they allow the Panthers (whose offense this season has been inept at best) to march down the field and kick the game-winning field goal. But this game bothers me much less than the Cardinal’s unforgivable loss to the Rams. Kurt Warner, after previously fumbling and throwing three interceptions, fumbles the snap at the 20 yard line as Arizona is trying to run down the clock before kicking a game-winning field goal. Instead, the Cardinals lose by 2 and Warner’s job security looks a lot less sound than it did two weeks ago. As do my chances of beating Brian in picks this year, now that I have a 3 pick deficit to dig myself out of.

Anyway, let’s move on the Monday night game, shall we?

Atlanta (2-0, 1-0 away)
at
New Orleans (2-0, 0-0 home)

The Falcons’ running game has been NFL Street-esque so far this season. Part of me is hoping that they take away the out of bounds rule tonight just so Michael Vick can bust a wall move and jump over the Saints defenders. The more serious part of me though, the softer, gentler but no less sensible part, wants to see the Saints to win tonight, in the first game at the Super Dome since 2004, inspire the city of New Orleans and give them hope as they continue the long rebuilding process. While it may have seemed, at the beginning of the season, unrealistic to expect the Saints to have a chance in this game, my head and my heart now seem much closer to agreeing on a prediction for this game. I won’t spend any more time reiterating how good Atlanta’s running game has been, because we know that they will run early, often and successfully in this game. The question here is whether or not Drew Brees can continue the success that he has had through the air in their first 2 games. He looked particularly solid last week against Green Bay, winning a shootout with Brett Favre by throwing for 353 yards and 2 touchdowns. Can he have similar success against the Falcons’ defense? Well, Joey Galloway beat the Atlanta secondary on nearly every play last week. Granted, he is one of the speedier receivers in the league, but I think that Atlanta’s secondary is a little suspect. But Brees won’t be able to exploit it unless his offensive line can hold off the Atlanta pass rush, which has looked pretty solid this year. And he will need Bush and McAlister to contribute on the ground in order to help open things up. The Saints have a lot more question marks than the Falcons do, but they have a huge edge emotionally. John Madden called the Patriots out during their horrendous loss to the Broncos last night and said that the Pats were playing “without passion”. Passion is an integral part of success and while I do believe that the Falcons have the better team, I think that the Saints have a LOT more to play for here than Atlanta and will find a way to win tonight.

My Pick:
The Saints continue to inspire the city of New Orleans

The Good, The Bad and The Gritty...

2006-09-21T15:23:00.000-07:00

I am not normally one to gloat, but I feel that I could not have been more right in my prediction for the Monday Night game: Rothelisberger looked rusty, he was outplayed by Leftwich and the Jaguars’ defense was nasty, which all added up to a gritty 9-0 win for Jacksonville. It will be much more difficult for pseudo football pundits to ignore the Jaguars after they embarrassed the defending Super Bowl champs on Monday Night Football.

Okay, enough ego-stroking for one post. Let’s switch gears now and discuss some things that I was really wrong about in Week 2:

The Bills shocked me by defeating the Dolphins (a trendy preseason Super Bowl pick) despite the absence of Takeo Spikes. This was because Dante Culpepper is not the same quarterback since his return from knee surgery. He looks tentative on every play, and refuses to leave the pocket even when he feels pressure coming. The Bills sacked him seven times on Sunday and held his team scoreless until the waning moments of the game. Where is the confident, proficient passer who would, on a regular basis, scramble to escape the defense and make game-breaking plays? I’m not sure if he still exists, but if he still does, he better make an appearance soon or the Dolphins’ playoff hopes are kaput. I know one thing for sure…Miami is wishing that they had signed Drew Brees instead when they had the chance…

On to the Tampa/Atlanta game…I can’t help but digress for a moment and comment on the Falcons’ new offense. In the short term, the Falcons’ “college option” offense looks unstoppable. Tampa Bay has what I consider to be a solid run defense, but Atlanta decimated it on Sunday en route to a team record in rushing yards. What really surprised me in this game though was Tampa’s inability to put points on the board. Chris Simms threw for 313 yards and Galloway had 9 receptions for 161 yards and they could only put 3 points on the board?!? Keep in mind that Galloway was getting open quite frequently despite being covered by Hall, one of the top CBs in the league. This leads me to believe that if Simms can cut down on his mistakes, this offense still has a chance to thrive. Does that mean that the Buccaneers still have a shot at a playoff berth? That remains to be seen. Does it mean that they can beat the Panthers on Sunday? I’ll keep you in suspense for now…and move on to this week’s picks:

Last Week: 11-5
(SAFE PICKS: 6-1)

Season: 20-12
(SAFE PICKS: 9-2)

New York Jets (1-1, 1-0 away)
at
Buffalo (1-1, 0-0 home)

I’ve heard way too many media members complimenting the Bills’ defense over the last two weeks…in my opinion they really aren’t that good. They beat up on the Dolphins last week simply because Culpepper was hesitant and refused to scramble. They played the Patriots close but New England really just looked sloppy in that game (which was understandable as it was the first game of the season). They have proven nothing to me. And I still think that it is impossible for J.P. Losman to lead a winning team. How can you depend on a quarterback who takes a safety by running out of the end zone? Furthermore, how can you expect to stop an efficient passing attack when you are starting two rookies at safety? An efficient passing attack is exactly what the New York Jets have, and I think that Chad Pennington, Laverneus Coles and Cotchery will expose the Bills’ secondary for what it is—a major weakness. Pennington may not be able to throw a ball 60 yards, but he is a very smart and efficient quarterback who reads defenses as well as anyone in the league and is very good at finding open receivers for short and medium completions. If Kevin Barlow gets things going, New York could compete for a playoff berth. That being said, even if Barlow rushes for under 50 yards, the Jets will have no trouble beating the Bills in this game…

My Pick:
Jets win the battle of New York
SAFE PICK

Green Bay (0-2, 0-0 away)
at
Detroit (0-2, 0-1 home)

I feel as though both of these teams, were they not playing each other, would be 0-3 after Sunday. Since they are playing each other though, one of them has to end up in the win column…I think that that team will be the Packers. They may have lost a disappointing game last week at home to the Saints, but at least they have shown some semblance of an offense (Favre threw for over 300 yards and they scored 27 points last week). The Lions have managed a total of 13 points in their first two contests. (Note to Vegas: How can you favor a team by a touchdown when they have only scored one touchdown in their first 2 games?)

My Pick:
Green Bay picks up their first win on the road.

Jacksonville (2-0, 0-0 away)
at
Indianapolis (2-0, 1-0 home)

The Jaguars looked very impressive on Monday (as mentioned earlier) but they face an even tougher task on Sunday, facing a passing attack that is hotter than Natalie Portman. Peyton Manning threw for 400 yards last week and spread the ball all over the field. Granted he was facing quite possibly the worst pass defense in the league, but he looks pretty damn confident right now. If this game was in Jacksonville and they had not gritted out two tough victories over talented teams in the first two weeks, I would give the Jags a shot, but I am pretty confident that with the game being in Indy, and with the Colts being less worn out, they will win.

My Pick:
Colts hand a tough Jags team their first defeat

Tennessee (0-2, 0-1 away)
at
Miami (0-2, 0-1 home)

Now, as I mentioned earlier, Miami has been a very bad team thus far; however, the Titans are in a whole other league of “bad”. Their defense is very balanced; that is to say that they are just as inept at stopping the run as they are the pass. This is just the type of match-up that Culpepper needs to boost his confidence…

My Pick:
The ‘phins pick up their first win
SAFE PICK

Chicago (2-0, 1-0 away)
at
Minnesota (2-0, 1-0 home)
The Vikings’ 2-0 record is a bit misleading…they have relied on excellent coaching, hard work and a little luck to get to this point. They really don’t have any players at any position that scare you, but in the NFC North, they have a good shot at finishing 9-7 and stealing a wildcard berth. On the other hand, they have very little chance of defeating the Bears, who not only have the best defense in the NFC (again) but also feature a budding star in QB Rex Grossman, who threw 4 TD passes last week against Detroit. If Grossman can keep playing at a high, or at least better than average, level, the Bears have a very good shot at making it to the Super Bowl.

My Pick: The Bears decimate another division “rival”
SAFE PICK

Cincinnati (2-0, 1-0 away)
at
Pittsburgh (1-1, 1-0 home)

Carson Palmer has been waiting for 9 months to seek revenge on the team that knocked the Bengals out of the playoffs and sent him off the field with a career-threatening knee injury. He has caught the Steelers at a bad time too, coming off a shutout loss to the Jaguars in which Rothelisberger struggled mightily, throwing three interceptions, and Willie Parker only rushed for 20 yards. The Pittsburgh defense looked good last week, but do you really expect them to hold down the Cincinnati offense? Everywhere you look, there are guys that can hurt you: Carson Palmer at QB (352 yards and 2 TD passes last week), Rudi Johnson at RB (26 carries for 145 yards and 2 TDs), and three outstanding WRs in Chad Johnson (78 yards and a TD), Chris Henry (113 yards) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (making his season debut in this game). If Pittsburgh gets its act together offensively, this will turn into a shootout (as there is no “D” in Bengal). If not, it will be a blowout. Either way, the Bengals will win.

My Pick: Bengals avenge last year’s divisional playoff defeat
SAFE PICK

Carolina (0-2, 0-1 away)
at
Tampa Bay (0-2, 0-1 home)

Sports Illustrated, in its preseason predictions, picked Carolina to win the Super Bowl. This is significant firstly because I cannot remember them picking a single Super Bowl representative correctly in the last 5 or so years; secondly, because the last time they picked the Panthers to win the Super Bowl, Carolina proceeded to lose its first three games (and then some), all without the services of Steve Smith, and failed to make the playoffs. The Panthers have a lot of history to overcome here. They also need to get their running game on track because DeShaun Foster looks like he is three steps slower this year, averaging only 2.9 yards per carry and showing no ability to break tackles. Steve Smith may play this week, but you have to expect him to be a bit rusty with all of the time that he has been sitting on the sideline. Tampa did lose pretty badly last week, but I feel that the score was misleading: the scoring opportunities were there. Simms threw for over 300 yards and Galloway caught 9 balls for over 160 yards…and Simms missed him several times when he was open in the end zone! The Bucs just haven’t capitalized on their opportunities and I think that they are bound to start doing so eventually…their passing game should be better than the Panthers’ on Sunday (even with the potential return of Smith) and I think that they will hold on for the win here.

My Pick: Tampa wins (history repeats itself)

Washington (0-2, 0-1 away)
at
Houston (0-2, 0-1 home)

For much of Sunday’s game against Dallas, Washington was able to compensate for their injury-ravaged secondary by sticking more players out there and shying away from putting pressure on the quarterback. Eventually though, with enough time to see the field, Bledsoe was able to break their defense down and lead his team to victory. It certainly didn’t help that Mark Brunell (who should not still be in the NFL) only completed 8 of his first 20 passes, but that’s a different story. The stacked coverage defense that Washington is forced to play is much more important in regards to this game. This is because of Texans quarterback David Carr. There is a distinct pattern surrounding Carr’s triumphs and struggles: when his offensive line (which has been awful ever since he came into the league) gives him enough time to throw the ball he is very successful; when his offensive line breaks down, he gets sacked a lot. Now, since Washington is still forced to play special teams players in their secondary, I expect that they will have to double-team Eric Moulds and Andre Johnson (two excellent receivers) on pretty much every play. This means that they most likely won’t be putting much pressure on Carr, which bodes well for him. Since the Texans’ defense is pretty awful, if Mark Brunell has anything left, this will turn into a shootout. Unfortunately for Washington fans though, Brunell looks washed up and it doesn’t look like Gibbs plans on benching him anytime soon.

My Pick: The Texans pick up their first win at home

Baltimore (2-0, 1-0 away)
Cleveland (0-2, 0-1 home)

I could spend a paragraph here talking about how good Baltimore’s defense is and how bad Cleveland is on both sides of the ball but I won’t. It would be a waste of both my time and yours.

My Pick: Ravens (insert intelligent comment that equates to “duh” here)
SAFE PICK

St. Louis (1-1, 0-1 away)
at
Arizona (1-1, 1-0 home)

The Cardinals had the top passing attack in the league last year and have looked pretty good in that regard this year as well. Now that they actually have a running game (Edgerrin James) they boast a pretty formidable offense. Meanwhile, the Rams’ defense looked ineptly balanced last week in their loss to the 49ers, allowing 127 rushing yards to Frank Gore and 131 receiving yards to Antonio Bryant. I get the feeling that Kurt Warner (who way-back-when led them to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances) will tear them apart through the air and James will do his part on the ground. The Rams may score some points to keep this interesting (the Cardinals’ defense is pretty awful too) but I expect Arizona to prevail.

My Pick: Cardinals win a shootout at home

Philadelphia (1-1, 1-0 away)
at
San Francisco (1-1, 1-0 home)

The 49ers’ offense has looked pretty good the first 2 weeks, but they are simply overmatched here. Their fourth quarter meltdown aside, the Eagles look like the class of the NFC thus far. Donovan McNabb looks better than ever this season (300+ passing yards in each of the first 2 weeks) and I expect more of the same from him on Sunday against a pretty weak 49er secondary. Terrell who?

My Pick: Eagles win on the road
SAFE PICK

New York Giants (1-1, 1-0 away)
at
Seattle (2-0, 1-0 home)

For a combination of reasons, many of which elude me, Seattle is a much much better team at home than they are on the road. I thought that the Giants showed a lot of grit last week in their crazy comeback win over the Eagles, but I still feel like I need to give the edge to Seattle here. This is more of an intuition pick than anything else. The Giants have looked much better than the Seahawks so far this year, but my gut tells me that they are going to lose this game.

My Pick: Seattle doesn’t lose at home (although the numbers say that they should here)

Denver (1-1, 0-1 away)
at
New England (2-0, 1-0 home)

Trust me, Bill Belichick can’t wait to see the Broncos on Sunday night. You think that the Patriots have forgotten the (mostly) ref-induced Denver debacle that was their playoff exit last year? Not a chance, because Belichick will be reminding them every waking second. All I can say is this: If Jake Plummer thought things were going badly before, he is in for a rude awakening on Sunday. The screams for Cutler will only get louder from here on out…

My Pick: Pats defense will have a field day at Plummer’s expense
SAFE PICK

That’s it for now. Stay tuned for my Monday Night pick…

And then there was Monday...

2006-09-17T22:30:00.000-07:00

I am going to keep this short and to the point since I have to get up early for class tomorrow morning. We can discuss Sunday’s games during next weekend’s post…Let’s get right to the Monday night match-up:

Pittsburgh (1-0, 0-0 away)
at
Jacksonville (1-0, 1-0 home)

Jacksonville’s pass defense looked superb last week, harassing Drew Bledsoe into throwing three interceptions including a game-clinching pick in the fourth quarter. Their run defense looked solid as well, holding Dallas to 88 yards on the ground. Byron Leftwich did an excellent job of managing the game and not making the big mistakes that his counterpart, Bledsoe, did. Pittsburgh looked pretty dominating in their opener, picking apart Miami (a trendy preseason Super Bowl pick) with their backup QB Charlie Batch. This week they have Roethlisberger back so, to be hopelessly cliché, “the sky’s the limit”, right? Wrong. Bill Cowher better keep an oil can ready…I expect Big Ben’s gears to be a bit rusty. Keep in mind that this is his first action of the season and he is facing, on the road, a defense that kept the Cowboys’ high-octane offense (featuring tough and speedy wide outs Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens) in check last week. Trust me, the Jaguars will be ready for Roethlisberger. I am surprised that more people don’t agree with me. Besides their excellent and balanced defense, the Jaguars also feature three talented young WRs in Wilford, Jones and Williams that will keep the Pittsburgh defense honest by not allowing them to key in on one guy, and they have a fearless competitor in Leftwich who, if my memory serves correct, willed his team to back-to-back victories over Cincinnati and Pittsburgh (in my opinion the top two teams in the NFL last year) last season. How quick people can be in writing teams off as overrated and disregarding their youth and inexperience. The Jags are for real. Their 12-4 record last season was not an aberration. They can play with the best teams in the NFL and I expect them to remind their critics of that fact on Monday night.

My Pick:
The Jaguars ‘claw’ their way to victory!

Ah, here it goes...

2006-09-16T19:05:00.000-07:00

Yes, I know. I was really wrong about several things last week. But, keep in mind that it was the first week of the season and nobody, not even me, really knows what to expect out of many of these teams. I will take a little time here to apologize for my appalling lack of respect shown towards the Baltimore Ravens’ defense. Yes, they had some trouble last year…but if I had really stopped to think about it I would have realized that this was simply because they were plagued by injuries. Everyone is healthy now and they look damn scary. In an effort to be fair and balanced, I would also like to point out that I was dead-on in my assessment of Broncos’ QB Jake Plummer. Another performance like Sunday’s game and Plummer will be taking a seat on the bench and will be usurped by rookie Jay Cutler, who Shanahan traded up for in the draft. As I said last week, when there’s pressure on Jake the (Garter) Snake he responds poorly…
At any rate, it’s time to move on to this week’s games…

Last Week: 9-7
(Safe Picks: 3-1)
Season: 9-7
(Safe Picks: 3-1)

Tampa Bay (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Atlanta (1-0, 0-0 home)

Ok, so I was really wrong last week about both of these teams…especially Tampa Bay. I picked the Bucs to blow out the Ravens, and made the game one of my SAFE PICKs, which was a pretty impetuous move on my part. As mentioned above, I grossly underestimated the Ravens’ defense. I do expect Jon Gruden to fire his team up this week, and I think that the Bucs will respond. I think they were as surprised as I was by the ferocity of the Ravens’ D, but they will be ready for the Falcons this week. Atlanta looked impressive in their victory over Carolina, but keep in mind that the Panthers were and are still without Steve Smith, the premier wide out in the league. Also, Patrick Kerney and John Abraham are banged up and may not play. I expect that, with more time to sit back in the pocket, Chris Simms will have a lot more success throwing the ball down the field to Galloway and Clayton and Tampa Bay should be able to hold on for the victory.

My Pick: Tampa airs out a victory on the road

Detroit (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Chicago (1-0, 0-0 home)

Chicago’s defense looked stronger than ever at Lambeau Field last week, embarrassing Brett Favre yet again. More importantly, Rex Grossman looked really solid at quarterback and did an excellent job of spreading the ball around and moving the chains. He’ll have a bit of a tougher test against the improved Lions’ defense, but he should be able to help put a few points on the board and the defense will take care of the rest.

My Pick: Bears take care of business at home…
SAFE PICK

Cleveland (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Cincinnati (1-0, 0-0 home)

My mathematical formula for the Bengals/Chiefs game last week could not have been more inaccurate…I predicted a shootout, it was a relatively low scoring game…I said that the Chiefs would win on a last second TD run by Larry Johnson, LJ had one of his worst games in recent memory and the Chiefs lost…Nevertheless, I am going to give the formula pick concept another try:

One high scoring offense + One Superstar QB who has overcome the first game jitters after major knee surgery and is ready to shine + One improved rush defense that held one of the top RBs in the league to 68 yards last week + One pass rush that had 7 sacks last week against a decent offensive line + One team with an average offensive line and a running back that couldn’t even gain 30 yards against the Saints = A HUGE win for the Bengals

My Pick: Bengals (The formula says it all)
SAFE PICK

New Orleans (1-0, 1-0 away)
at
Green Bay (0-1, 0-1 home)

The Saints opened the season with a surprising victory in Cleveland and hope to continue their early success against the Packers in Green Bay. I love the young talent of the Saints and I think that they may be an exciting team to watch for a long time. However, I can’t see them winning this game. If Favre has any competitive fire left, he will find a way to propel his team to victory here. If he can’t, he might as well retire and let the rebuilding process begin in Green Bay…because if the Packers can’t beat an average team in their own building in a must-win situation then they aren’t going to make the playoffs, plain and simple.

My Pick: Packers give the Lambeau faithful something to cheer about…for now.

Houston (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Indianapolis (1-0, 0-0 home)

The Houston passing game actually looked pretty good against the Eagles last week. They have a good quarterback in David Carr and excellent wide outs in Andre Johnson and Eric Moulds. Unfortunately, their defense hasn’t shown much improvement so far and their running game has stalled with Dominick Davis’s injury. The acquisition of Gado from the Packers may help them out in the running department, but the Colts’ passing game will be too much for the Texans’ secondary to handle.

My Pick: Colts win at home, but the Texans put some points on the board and keep it interesting

Buffalo (0-1, 0-1 away)
at
Miami (0-1, 0-0 home)

Miami’s defense looked a bit shaky against Pittsburgh in Week 1 when they were unable to rush the quarterback or cover the Steelers’ WRs or TEs in the secondary. Their running game was awful as well and Culpepper threw a couple of costly interceptions in the fourth quarter that cost them the game. Still, one game does not a season make. Nick Saban has had three extra days to prepare his troops for this game, and you have to believe that they are going to be a different team come Sunday. The Bills looked pretty good last week for a half, but I can’t see them pulling out a win here on the road. J.P. Losman will make mistakes early and often and I foresee the Dolphins taking advantage of them.

My Pick: Dolphins recover from last week’s debacle and get the win
SAFE PICK

Carolina (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Minnesota (1-0, 0-0 home)

Word on the street (well the CBSsportsline.com street) is that Steve Smith did not practice today which means that it is highly unlikely that he would play on Sunday. As we saw last week, the Panthers just aren’t the same team without him. The Vikings rush defense looks much improved this year and they kept the Redskins’ RBs in check last week; I expect them to give DeShaun Foster a similar treatment. Minnesota’s offensive line looked really solid last week against a pretty good Redskin pass rush, so I expect them to hold their own against the Panthers. The Panthers are reeling right now while the Vikings are high on themselves and are playing at home…

My Pick: Vikings open the season a surprising 2-0 by beating one of last year’s playoff teams for the second straight week

New York Giants (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Philadelphia (1-0, 0-0 home)

I liked what I saw out of both of these teams last week (forget the ‘skins and Cowboys, these two teams are the class of the division) but I was really impressed by the Eagles…They look like they are ready to return to their form of two years ago and have found a new star wide out in Dante Stallworth. Brian Westbrook looks better than ever. McNabb looks like he has a chip on his shoulder after last year’s debacle of a season and he seems determined to prove all of his critics wrong, and I for one wouldn’t bet against him. Granted, they played the Texans, whose secondary resembles that of my intramural team, so they really haven’t proven anything yet. The Giants’ DBs shouldn’t give them much of a test either. This game will give the Eagles’ front line a chance to prove themselves as they face one of the top RBs in the league in Tiki Barber. I think that offensively the G-men will put up some points, but not enough to beat the rejuvenated Eagles on the road.

My Pick: Eagles continue their march towards a 4-0 start

Oakland (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Baltimore (1-0, 0-0 home)

I think that I spent enough time in this post explaining my new stance towards the Ravens’ D…and as I said last week this Raiders team is likely the worst team in the NFL.
Enough said.

My Pick: Ravens hold their second straight opponent to single digit points
SAFE PICK

St. Louis (1-0, 0-0 away)
at
San Francisco (0-1, 0-0 home)

The 49ers’ offense looks to be light years ahead of where it was last year. If only their defense could say the same. Kurt Warner picked their secondary apart last week and I expect Marc Bulger to do the same. Look for a big day out of Tory Holt that will overshadow solid performances from Alex Smith and Frank Gore.

My Pick: Rams win a wild one on the road

Arizona (1-0, 0-0 away)
at
Seattle (1-0, 0-0 home)

The Seahawks’ offense may be sputtering but the defense looked great last week, holding Detroit to just six points. They should be able to slow down the high-powered offense of the Cardinals a bit. Also, I expect the Seattle offense to get back on track on Sunday. We saw what Frank Gore did against the Cardinals’ front line last week…imagine what Shaun Alexander, last year’s NFL rushing leader and MVP, will do against them this week. I don’t buy into the theory that Alexander is only a product of his offensive line…a good offensive line can make an average back look good but I don’t think that they make a good back great. Alexander is the real deal…he just got of to a slow start in the opener this year just as he did last year. Hutchinson’s departure will not affect him nearly as much as critics seem to think that it will.

My Pick: Alexander runs all over the Cardinals at home
SAFE PICK

Kansas City (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Denver (0-1, 0-0 home)

I feel like I’ve picked on Plummer enough for one week so I’ll lay off of him for a minute (or at least a sentence). I don’t think that the Chiefs’ passing game is going to put up many points with Damon Huard at quarterback. I do think that Larry Johnson will have a good game but he can’t do it all by himself. I think that Mike Shanahan, after what he saw out of Plummer last week, will manage him very careful and have him hand off the ball to one of the Bells whenever possible to exploit the Chiefs’ horrendous run defense. For this week at least, Plummer won’t look too bad. Then again, he won’t look that good either. If the Broncos want to go anywhere in the playoffs this year, they better be ready to replace him with Cutler before too much longer.

My Pick: Broncos feast on the Chiefs’ weak front line

New England (1-0, 0-0 away)
at
New York Jets (1-0, 0-0 home)

This game could be a lot closer than many experts seem to think it will be. Chad Pennington looks as good as he has ever looked throwing the ball right now and Laveranues Coles looks healthy and ready to be a reliable receiving threat again. Everyone seems to hate the Jets’ running game but I think that Barlow is a better back than most people think. This is a chance for him to prove himself…if he doesn’t step up than the Patriots will be able to load up to stop the pass. The Jets have a shot at a playoff run if they can find some balance in their offense…and their defense. Dillon and Maroney should have pretty big days on the ground and New England should be able to scrape together a win here…the Jets will keep it close though.

My Pick: Pats hold on for the victory on the road

Tennessee (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
San Diego (1-0, 0-0 home)

The Titans might as well throw Vince Young out there and give him some on-field experience…I don’t see how he could be any worse than Billy Volek or Kerry Collins. The Chargers should be able to pick up another win here by again only using their defense and superb running game. They are playing it safe with Philip Rivers so far and not asking him to do too much…it’s worked so far but eventually the kid gloves will have to come off when they finally face a team that has a shot at winning more games than it loses.

My Pick: Tomlinson grinds out another victory for the Chargers
SAFE PICK

Washington (0-1, 0-0 away)
at
Dallas (0-1, 0-0 home)

Neither of these teams look like they are as good as advertised…QB Drew Bledsoe imploded last week for the Cowboys, throwing awful pass after awful pass. The ‘skins’ woes worry much more than Dallas’s though. Forget the Clinton Portis injury (he will likely not play this week)—Washington’s real problems stem from the injuries to their secondary. Top CB Shawn Springs is still out and Carlos Rodgers was beaten long way too often last week by Minnesota’s mediocre WRs…and he’s the best healthy corner that they have right now. The speedy Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens should have a field day on Sunday. Bledsoe should get some of the critics off of his back…for now.It'll be pretty difficult to miss receivers that are open by 10 yards...

My Pick: Dallas goes deep for the victory at home
SAFE PICK

That’s it for now. Check back Sunday night for my thoughts on the Monday night game…

Just a Quicky...

2006-09-11T13:18:00.000-07:00

There are about fifty different things about Sunday’s games that I would like to comment on, but due to the restraints of time, I will have to wait until next week.
Here are my picks for tonight’s games:

Minnesota at Washington 7 P.M.

I was really tempted to pick the Vikings to win this game…The Redskins are really hurting and Mark Brunell looked awful in the preseason. The problem is, I don’t fear any of the Vikings’ wide receivers (now that Robinson is gone) and neither do the Redskins. If Washington can keep the Vikings’ receivers in check with single coverage (as I expect they will able to), then the Redskins will be blitzing the hell out of Brad Johnson. I know Minnesota’s offensive line is supposed to be pretty good this year, but I think they will crumble eventually under this onslaught. As for Washington’s offense…Clinton Portis likely won’t play, but the ‘skins have plenty of depth at the position and Betts and Duckett will pick up the slack. I’m not sure what to expect out of Brunell but I expect he’ll complete a couple deep balls to Santana Moss and the defense and special teams will take care of the rest. Hey, it worked last season.

My Pick: Redskins take care of business at home…but Brunell still looks shaky

San Diego at Oakland 10 P.M.

The Raiders have had some serious QB issues over the last couple seasons…so they went out and fixed them all…by signing Aaron Brooks, who has thrown one more TD pass than INT over the last two seasons. Randy Moss cannot be happy…I wouldn’t be surprised to see him ask for a trade before the season is over. What are the Raiders thinking? They had a chance to draft a quarterback in the first round but instead decided that it made much more sense to continue wasting the ability of their only top tier talent (Moss) by sticking another quarterback in the lineup who is just as likely to throw the ball to the other team as to Moss. In short, the Raiders will be awful again this year. Philip Rivers is unproven and I’m not sure what to expect from him but I imagine that he will hand the ball off to Tomlinson for most of the game and let him take care of business on the ground in Oakland, where he rushed for 140 yards last season.

My Pick: LT lifts the Chargers over the Raiders

Well...this is awkward...

2006-09-09T09:10:00.000-07:00

Ok, Ok. So instead of embarrassing the Steelers on Thursday night, the Dolphins have left me more than a little red in the face as I am writing this. I overlooked three very important things when I picked Miami to beat Pittsburgh:

1. Week 1 is always a crapshoot.

2. Every controversial call over the last year or so has gone in the Steelers’ favor. Don’t even get me started on their sham of a Super Bowl win…but I digress.

3. Even though I (obviously) dislike the Steelers, I have to give credit where credit is due: their defense is solid from top to bottom. Their front seven shut down Ronnie Brown and as a result were able to get to Dante Culpepper and force him into costly turnovers in the fourth quarter that decided the game.

While it is just the first game of the season, this game left me with some serious questions about the Dolphins. The ESPN analysts are blaming the loss on Culpepper being rusty, but I think that he is the least of their worries. He played very well in the first half and the beginning of the second half. His struggles late in the game were partly the result of the Steelers’ defensive schemes but also, more importantly, because Pittsburgh was able to shut down Ronnie Brown completely, holding him to 30 yards on 15 carries. Miami needs to get better production out of Brown if they hope to make the playoffs this year. Also, on the other side of the ball, their front seven looked sluggish. Their inability to get to the stone-footed Charlie Batch allowed him to pick their defense apart for three touchdowns. Nick Saban has some major adjustments to make before Week 2, and very few of them involve the player taking the most heat for the loss.

Anyway, it is time for me to move on and discuss the other 30 teams in the league…

Sunday, Sep. 10

Atlanta at Carolina 1:00 p.m.

Word on the street (and on ESPN) is that top receiver Steve Smith will not play on Sunday, leaving the Panthers a bit vulnerable against a bitter Falcons team looking to make up for missing the playoffs last season. But, the game is being played in Carolina. Also, the athletic front line of the Panthers is about as good a counter for Michael Vick’s running game as you will find.

My Pick: Carolina holds off Atlanta

Baltimore at Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m.

So, Baltimore finally solved their QB problems by signing…Steve Mcnair?!? Please. He was washed up two seasons ago. Okay, so he will in all likelihood put up better stats than Kyle Boller, but that’s really not saying very much. The real problem here though is that Baltimore’s defense has slipped quite a bit over the last few seasons. Remember, during their heyday, they won a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer. Basically, this diatribe translates into the Ravens having no chance of beating the Bucs in Tampa on Sunday. Tampa has a solid defense that is at least on par with Baltimore’s and has an emerging offense that could really put things together this season; Chris Simms is coming into his own and he has a pair of talented wide-outs in Galloway and Clayton who are healthy at the same time for the first time in their careers.

My Pick: Tampa in a blowout
SAFE PICK

Buffalo at New England 1:00 p.m.

In recent years (as my Cali buddy Brian is well aware) the number 49 has become synonymous with mediocrity in the NFL. But while the 49ers have been hella bad since Jeff Garcia and T.O. left town, the 49ers are not the first thing that pops into my head when I think of the number 49. That unfortunate distinction belongs to Bills quarterback J.P. Losman who last season completed only 113 of 228 pass attempts for a completion percentage of…49 percent! Losman was simply awful last year, showing no ability to read defenses or complete passes in key situations. The Bills are forced to give him another shot this season since they wasted a first round draft pick on him but I expect them to look elsewhere for quarterbacking services next year…Anyway, to the game. The Patriots’ defense ate Losman alive last year and I expect more of the same in Foxboro on Sunday. If there was ever a week to start the Patriots’ defense in your fantasy league, this is it…

My Pick: (Surprise!) The Patriots
SAFE PICK

Cincinnati at Kansas City 1:00 p.m.

So…thanks to some off-season spending...
Two much improved defenses add up for a defensive struggle?
Not exactly…The reality seems a little closer to this formula:

Two explosive offenses + Two (still) shaky defenses = A shootout in K.C.!

The Bengals’ offense will be a bit better than the Chiefs’, but we must also consider another important variable: The Chiefs are nearly impossible to beat at Arrowhead.

My Pick: Kansas City 41-38 on a last-second TD run by Larry Johnson

Denver at St. Louis 1:00 p.m.

The Broncos are sick of quarterbacks who choke in the postseason…so they drafted Jay Cutler to compete for the starting QB spot. Where does this leave Jake Plummer? Well, when the pressure’s on, Plummer usually combusts and I expect more of the same from him on Sunday in St. Louis. Cutler will be starting before this season is over, mark my words…As for St. Louis, their offensive attack should be pretty formidable this season now that everyone is healthy, and since they are planning to run more and utilize their under-used but very talented RB Steven Jackson.

My Pick: St. Louis

New Orleans at Cleveland 1:00 p.m.

The Saints added quite a bit of offensive talent in the off-season, but Brees and Bush will be no match for Romeo Crennel’s much improved defense at home. I see Bush being held to under 50 yards rushing, and Brees looking a bit rusty as he gets used to his new team and breaks in his surgically repaired shoulder.

My Pick: Cleveland

N.Y. Jets at Tennessee 1:00 p.m.

It doesn’t matter whether they throw Billy Volek or Kerry Collins out there, either way the Titans are going to be offensively challenged. There is no doubt in my mind that Vince Young, for better or worse, will be starting by the end of the season. As for the Jets, as long as they can keep Pennington healthy they will be in the running, despite what the majority of football analysts are saying…

My Pick: Jets win on the road

Philadelphia at Houston 1:00 p.m.

Donovan McNabb is healthy again and has a huge chip on his shoulder after the disappointing debacle that was last season. He also has a new number one target, off-season acquisition Donte Stallworth, who is coming into his own and is poised for a breakout season. Did I mention that the Eagles are facing the Texans who boasted the league’s second worst defense last season?

My Pick: Eagles in a blowout
SAFE PICK

Seattle at Detroit 1:00 p.m.

Maybe if the Lions’ coaches were more concerned with putting together a defensive game plan to stop Shaun Alexander and less concerned with partying and driving around naked then the Lions might have a shot at winning their home opener…but since that’s not the case, I see the reigning MVP picking up right where he left off last season.

My Pick: Seahawks

Chicago at Green Bay 4:15 p.m.

Is Brett Favre washed up? Did the Packers make the right decision in keeping him? Are the Bears a one-year wonder? This game won’t answer any of these questions. The Bears will look good defensively, but just like last season, fail to put things together offensively and Favre will squeeze together just enough points to win.

My Pick: Packers

Dallas at Jacksonville 4:15 p.m.

I’m not sure that either of these teams are as good as their billing. Dallas has the weapons offensively, especially after the acquisition of Terrell Owens, but defensively they are overrated. Jacksonville is really going to miss retired receiver Jimmy Smith and I’m not sure that they have the guys to step up and replace him. I do like the Jaguars’ defense however, and they do play really well at home…

My Pick: Jacksonville

San Francisco at Arizona 4:15 p.m.

The Cardinals could not have asked for a better opening match-up: last season’s top passing attack against the worst passing defense. Expect huge days out of Warner, Boldin, Fitzgerald and newly acquired RB Edgerrin James.

My Pick: Cardinals in a laugher
SAFE PICK

Indianapolis at N.Y. Giants 8:15 p.m
I am really sick of all of the hype surrounding this game. Let’s face it: Peyton is a much better passer than Eli at this point in their careers, and the only chance the Giants have of winning is if his superior supporting cast (Tiki Barber, Michael Strahan etc.) step up and play well. I see Eli struggling to handle the media pressure surrounding this game and turning the ball over early and often.

My Pick: Colts

That’s it for now…Stay tuned for my Monday Night Doubleheader Picks after my triumphant return to Middlebury…

Hello...Hello...Hello...Is there anybody in there?

2006-09-07T15:39:00.000-07:00

That’s right. After what seems like forever, I have returned to my long-neglected blog…just in time for football season! And you know what that means? This marks the triumphant return of my oft scrutinized but always entertaining pigskin picks. So…without further ado…

Miami at Pittsburgh: 8:30 p.m. (Thursday Night)

Ignore the ESPN talking heads…No Rothelisberger means big problems for Pittsburgh in Week 1. Charlie Batch has about as much mobility as my grandmother. Did I mention that she had both knees replaced? In short, the Dolphins’ sack-hungry front line will eat Batch alive…Luckily for the Steelers, Big Ben should be back in uniform within the next two weeks…

My Pick: Dolphins embarrass the Super Bowl Champs at home

(Check back soon for the rest of this week’s picks…)

AudioScrobbler

2006-03-28T19:53:00.000-08:00

As you probably noticed, I am experimenting by adding a music chart at the top of my blog. For anyone who is interested, look above to see what musical trash I have been filling my ears with lately.

Long Time No Blog

2006-03-28T19:47:00.000-08:00

Hey Everyone,
I apologize for the month and a half long hiatus in between posts, but I am planning to come back strong once baseball starts. I have in the works a post that should come out early next week with a preview of this year's Red Sox team and a discussion of how they stack up against the other teams in the AL East.
Stay Tuned.
I will not disappoint.
In the mean time, I have a midterm paper, two books to read and a midterm exam. Wish me luck.

A Smidgen of Super Bowl Sanguity...

2006-02-04T23:58:00.000-08:00

In the interest of time and my prejudice against dial-up internet, I am going to make my Super Bowl post short and sweet.

I would like to first point out that after going 1-3 in the second round (including 0-2 in SAFE PICKS) I redeemed myself by picking both of the Conference Championship Games correctly. I have yet to find anybody, sportswriter or peer, who replicated my feat. This final pick though may prove to be a bit tougher...

Over the past two weeks, I've wavered back and forth. I initially thought the Steelers were going to win...then I thought the Seahawks...then back to the Steelers...and now?

I know one thing for sure: It's going to be a close game and a great game to watch. Both of these teams deserve to be playing in Detroit (despite what Skip Bayless says) and are underrated and underappreciated. The mantra of the Steelers under Cowher has always been "when in doubt, grind it out", but Ben Rothelisberger has become, in just his second season, one of the top 5 quarterbacks in the league, very capable of winning the game with his arm. But let's not overlook the guy under center on the other team...Matt Hasselbeck is equally talented and equally underappreciated. The media's storyline here (other than the heartwarming tale of Jerome Betis returning to his hometown for one last shot at a Super Bowl ring) is the brawny, brash defense of the Steelers against NFL MVP Shaun Alexander, but I assure you that these two teams are nearly equal in every aspect of the game. This should prove to be one of the best matchups that I personally have ever seen in a Super Bowl and I am excited to watch.

In a game where both teams are capable and deserving of winning, who do you pick? I for one have decided to analyze the media coverage during the past two weeks. I have noticed that the majority of sports writers and analysts have picked Pittsburgh to win. Vegas has the Steelers favored by 4 1/2 points in what should be an even spread.

I came to my final decision based on a cardinal rule in Bill Simmons' original NFL picking Manifesto: In a toss-up, find out what team is being favored by the media, and pick against them. The Seahawks have been ignored all season long, even after clinching their division before Christmas, even after clinching homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, and even after handily beating a Carolina team that most of the media expected to win. After Sunday, it will be impossible to ignore them any longer...

The "Fantastic" Four?

2006-01-22T10:14:00.000-08:00

I am running a bit short on time here, so there isn’t much time to comment on all of the things I would like to say about the pandemonium that ensued last week; but, I’ll give it a try:

1) Between the phantom pass-interference call on Samuel (as well as several other questionable calls that went against the Pats) to the Polamalu interception reversal in the Steelers/Colts game, it was a horrible week all-around for officiating. Interesting sidenote: Why wasn’t Pittsburgh linebacker Joey Porter fined for making post-game comments suggesting a conspiracy (ie the NFL wanted the Colts to win)? Maybe, because he was on to something?

2) The Patriots’ train of destiny/dynasty has been derailed…but they have nobody to blame except themselves. Even with the officiating errors in that game, New England did everything in their power to give the Broncos the game. On the flip side, Denver did nothing on offense to make me believe in them or their chances of winning the Super Bowl this year. Let’s see Jake the Snake (more recently known as “No-Mistake Jake”) make some big throws when it matters.

3) Besides losing a lot of respect for Peyton Manning, stemming from both his play on the field and his post-game comments calling out his offensive line, I have also gained some serious doubts about his ability to play well in a game when it matters. Is he the next Dan Marino? I mean if I want a fantasy QB, there’s no question that I’m taking Peyton first, but if I wanted, in real-life, a quarterback capable of leading my team to the Super Bowl, I can count on two hands the number of guys I would take ahead of him.

4) When was the last time the NFL championship was this wide open? I feel that all four teams left have a legitimate chance to win it all…

Anyway, on to the picks:

Last Week: 1-3
Safe Picks: 0-2
(I guess I shouldn’t quit my day job quite yet…)

Pittsburgh at Denver:
As Bill Simmons mentions in his most recent column, the Steelers seem like a team of destiny right now…They have played as well as any team in the league over the past month, and every break has gone their way, from Carson Palmer going down on the first play of their first playoff game to Rothelisberger making that tackle of Harper after Betis made the worst fumble of his career to one of the most accurate field goal kickers in NFL history missing a game-tying field goal. Honestly, I think that these two teams match up pretty evenly. Both defenses are equally solid, as are their running games. What it will come down to will be the play of the quarterbacks, and I trust Jake Plummer (although he was my starting fantasy QB on my Fantasy Super Bowl winning team) about as far as I can throw him. Big Ben has seemed so much more confident in the playoffs this year, and he just looks to me like a winner. And, going back to the beginning of this blurb, the Steelers just seem like a team of destiny right now…

My Pick: Steelers

Carolina at Seattle:
We all know that Skip Bayless is a nutcase, but his latest column just seems completely absurd to me...
Bayless thinks that the Seahawks have benefited from an easy schedule, have had a lot of breaks go their way in close games, and played in the weakest division in football. While this may be true to some degree, let’s go back a couple years…remember the 2003 Panthers? They also benefited from a weak schedule; they also won a lot of close games on breaks that went their way; they also played in a weak division. That doesn’t change the fact that the 2003 Panthers and this year’s Seahawks are both solid teams. Seattle should, instead of being criticized, be admired, for their ability to win close games. And honestly, if there’s any team that should be critiqued here it’s this year’s version of the Panthers. With Jake Delhomme to Steve Smith being their number one, number two and number three option on offense (especially with DeShaun Foster now out for the year) Carolina is easily the most one-dimensional team left in the playoffs. I guess when that one dimension involves Steve Smith, you still have a team that is hard to beat, but there is no way I can give them the edge over the less-battle tested but more balanced Seahawks. How long can Shaun Alexander keep underperforming in the playoffs? How long can Carolina keep winning games on the road? All streaks have to come to an end sometime…unless it is Bill Simmons’ streak of picking Panthers’ games incorrectly (he picked the Panthers to win this week)…

My Pick: Seahawks

And The Plot Thickens…

2006-01-14T11:12:00.000-08:00

Week 2 of the NFL playoffs is upon us, but before we analyze this week’s games, let’s take a moment to recap what went on last week:

My Overall Record 2-2
Safe Picks 1-0

That 2-2 record that you read above is a bit misleading. I will admit that I read way too much into Bill Simmons’ man-crush on Eli Manning and ignored the fact that the Giants’ secondary has been suspect all year. I will also admit that I gave John Fox way too little credit even after seeing him take the Panthers to the Super Bowl two years ago solely on defensive ingenuity and tenacity. I’m not alone here though as the majority of sports analysts around the country also made the same mistakes because they used the same flawed logic that I did. The Panthers stacked the line of scrimmage to stop Tiki Barber and forced Eli Manning to throw the ball, which he failed to do successfully. Then, once Carolina established a lead and the running game was essentially a moot point, they sent blitzes at Eli left and right, forcing him into three interceptions. The younger Manning may well be a great quarterback in the NFL one day, but by no means is that day now, despite what the media has been telling us all season, and the playoff-tested Panthers capitalized on his inconsistency.
As for the other game I missed though…I think we can all agree that had Carson Palmer not been injured on the first play from scrimmage, that game would have had a different outcome. I’m not a seer; I can’t predict when MVP candidates are going to get injured and open the door for their team to lose to a mediocre opponent.

Anyway, what’s past is past, what’s done is done…Moving on to this week:

Washington (10-6, 4-4 away) at Seattle (13-3, 8-0 home):
Washington’s defense has been absolutely filthy during their winning streak that they rode to the playoffs and again in their win in Tampa Bay last week. Still, it’s hard for me to take this team seriously when their QB, Mark Brunell, couldn’t even put together 50 yards passing. I know you can’t bail on a QB when you’re in the second round of the playoffs, but Brunell is hurt and it is affecting his play. He hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards since Week 10 and hasn’t completed more than half of his passes since Week 15 against the Giants. If the Redskins fall behind and Brunell struggles, look for Gibbs to put Patrick Ramsey into the game. I think that Bill Simmons’ assessment is a little bit exaggerated (He predicted the Seahawks to win 30-6). Washington’s defense will keep them in the game but in the end Seattle will move on without too much trouble and move to 9-0 at home this year.

My Pick: Seahawks

New England (10-6, 5-3 away) at Denver (13-3, 8-0 home):
Yes, this game is being played in Denver. Yes, the thin Mile High air will be a daunting obstacle for the Patriots. Yes, the Broncos are undefeated at home this year. And yes, they beat the Patriots in Denver earlier this season, 28-20. But, as long as we are throwing out statistics…Since 2001, the Patriots are 6-0 against teams that beat them earlier in the season. Overall, they are 18-3 during that span in rematches against teams that they already played. Throwing the stats out the window though, consider this: The Patriots played the Broncos earlier in the year with a team that was—at best—half strength. Furthermore, it is no secret that the Broncos’ offense is fueled first and foremost by their running game. The Patriots have had the best rushing defense in the league over the past six weeks and I expect this trend to continue tonight. This will force Jake the Snake to make plays in the passing game to lead the Broncos to victory. Mike Shannahan has hidden Plummer’s weaknesses all season, but if their running game is exposed, he will be exposed as well. It is surprising how many analysts think that Denver is going to win but that will just help Belichick fire up his troops by making them feel disrespected.

My Pick: Patriots
MY FIRST SAFE PICK

Pittsburgh (11-5, 6-2 away) at Indianapolis (14-2, 7-1 home):
I really shouldn’t be writing this little blurb right now. If Carson Palmer hadn’t been injured on his first pass attempt of the game, we might have an actual game on our hands during this spot. But, we don’t. Peyton Manning will expose the Steelers’ weak secondary and the Colts will win big!

My Pick: Colts
MY SECOND SAFE PICK

Carolina (11-5, 6-2 away) at Chicago (11-5, 7-1 home):
Despite what the Bears have done this season, very few people expect them to win this game. "Their playoff inexperience will hinder them and no one can stop Steve Smith." No one can stop Steve Smith? I seem to remember the Bears holding him down enough in their game earlier in the year to win 13-3. The Bears are also being lambasted for playing Rex Grossman over Kyle Orton when Orton has played every game this year except one. Well, the Bears are certainly not giving up much with the quarterback change, as Orton (who was the lowest ranked QB in the league) has produced no offense whatsoever and been handed the few touchdown passes he has by turnovers caused by their defense. Grossman, although certainly not Peyton Manning, gives them the chance to make a couple big plays downfield. A couple big plays will be all that Chicago, led as always by their defense, needs to advance in this low-scoring affair. The Panthers have been consistently inconsistent all season long and I expect a let down after last week’s huge win over the Giants.

My Pick: Bears

Playoffs? You Wanna Talk About Playoffs?

2006-01-05T18:50:00.000-08:00

My New Year’s Resolution is to never miss another week of updating my blog…unless of course I am stranded in the desolate wilderness of the Northeast Kingdom with only *gasp* dialup. On second thought, my actual New Year’s Resolution is to finish my half-completed segment on Johnny “Wu San Gui” Damon and post it. I have already seen at least one article containing a similar opinion to mine so there are (thankfully) a few observers that haven’t panicked yet. Check back later to read my baseball segment; for now, let me get back to the sport at hand. This weekend the NFL playoffs begin and I for one am excited…

Last Week (although I didn’t post them):
9-7

And this week….Wildcard Madness!!
Only one of these games is a sure thing and that involves one team beating a team that has two more wins than them. Without further ado…

Washington (10-6) @ Tampa Bay (10-6):
The Buccaneers are of course the home team here but I see both teams being fundamentally flawed and consistently inconsistent. Both teams have shown the ability to look great one week and abysmal the next. But, I have more faith in the ‘skins who have two offensive studs (Clinton Portis and Santana Moss) who have remained dependable throughout the season. I have no idea what they’re going to get from Mark Brunell (especially with his knee injury), but those two guys have been constants all year. Chris Simms has made a lot of strides this year but I am still remembering the shellacking they took against the Patriots a few weeks ago when he couldn’t muster a single point out of their offense. Cadillac Williams? I have no idea what kind of rushing stats he is going to put up. In a match-up of pretenders, I’ll take the road team here, who have won five in a row…but I wouldn’t put any money down on it.

My Pick: Redskins

Jacksonville (12-4) @ New England (10-6):
I would like to note that the Jaguars nearly lost to the Texans (twice) and beat the ‘9ers by a score of 10-9. Their gaudy record is deceiving (they only beat three teams with winning records) and despite the difference in their records, the Patriots are a far superior team. New England has everybody back healthy now and they look a lot like the team that beat the Eagles in Jacksonville last season. If the Pats are going to get knocked out of the playoffs, it sure as hell isn’t going to be this week…

My Pick: Patriots
My SAFE PICK OF THE WEEK

Carolina (10-6) @ New York (11-5):
This one is another toss-up…The Giants are looking pretty beat-up right now but the Panthers look to me like they are also pretenders, while the Giants seem like potential contenders. Tiki Barber is going to have another huge game. The question is of course, what is Eli Manning going to do? Jake Delhomme is an above average quarterback and should throw a touchdown or two to Steve Smith. Can Eli put something together this week and give them the balanced attack that they will need to advance? I think he will but I wouldn’t put any money on it…

My Pick: Giants

Pittsburgh (11-5) @ Cincinnati (11-5):
The first two games this season in this very evenly-matched rivalry have both gone to the road team, but I think that the Bengals may find a way to break that trend. The Steelers have won four in a row while the Bengals faltered and lost their last two but keep in mind that Cincinnati has been on cruise control for the last couple weeks with little to play for. I see little evidence to persuade me to pick the Steelers. As long as Willie Parker is the number one back, Pittsburgh will not have the consistent running game it needs to hold down a team like the Bengals. Parker has been inconsistent all year in every respect except one: his average yards per carry have dropped off by an astonishing 2 yards per carry from the 3rd quarter to the 4th. This statistic sums up why Willie Parker will never be a reliable NFL back; a dependable starting running back gets stronger as the game goes on while Parker weakens, which is why he should be a change of pace runner instead of the number one guy. It should also be noted that not only does he not finish well, he doesn’t start well either, averaging only 3 yards per carry over his first 5 carries of the game. Note too that Parkers’ inconsistency has mirrored that of the Steelers: he averaged 5.3 yards per carry in Pittsburgh wins this year and only 3.3 in losses. Parker’s inability to establish the running game early will help put the Steelers into a hole that I can’t see them digging themselves out of. They can’t win a shootout with the Bengals and that’s what I forsee happening if they can’t establish the run early.

My Pick: Bengals

An Early Stocking-stuffer...

2005-12-23T23:18:00.000-08:00

It’s Christmas Eve Eve, and I haven’t finished wrapping my Christmas presents yet…So, I’m going to make my weekly NFL segment short and sweet. (Blog entry on the Red Sox off-season (including the apparent second coming of Benedict Arnold) pending)

Last Week:
11-5 (Overall)
4-2 (Safe Picks…Yikes!! Although keep in mind the Texans needed to make it look real and Warner got knocked out for the season early in the game which pretty much killed the Cardinals’ chances with Houston actually trying to win. As for the Chiefs? I guess I overestimated their running defense and Tiki made me pay...)

Buffalo (4-10, 0-6 away) at Cincinnati (11-3, 5-2 home):
Merry Christmas, Rudi Johnson!! The Bills’ atrocious rush defense is waiting to be unwrapped…In the spirit of the season, save your man Chad a touchdown so we can see the reindeer act he’s been bragging about all week…

My Pick: Bengals in a laugher
My First SAFE PICK

Pittsburgh (9-5, 5-2 away) at Cleveland (5-9, 3-3 home):
The Browns will keep this one close but the Steelers have rediscovered their ground game and should be able to come out with a victory to keep pace with San Diego.

My Pick: Steelers

San Diego (9-5, 5-2 away) at Kansas City (8-6, 5-1 home):
Yes Woody Paige, I know the Chiefs haven’t lost at Arrowhead in December since your hair started turning gray. But, you know what? All streaks have to end sometime…

My Pick: Chargers keep pace with the Steelers
My Second SAFE PICK

San Francisco (2-12, 0-7 away) at St. Louis (5-9, 3-4 home):
It turns out the Rams are pretty awful. Lucky for them the 49ers are even worse. I can’t wait to see how the Texans let them beat them next week in the Reggie Bush Bowl…

My Pick: Rams
My Third SAFE PICK

Tennessee (4-10, 1-5 away) at Miami (7-7, 4-3 home):
Someway, somehow, Nick Saban is going to finish his first season with Miami over .500 after an abysmal start to the year. Watch out for these guys next year if they can find a consistent QB. (Ferrotte is not a long-term option)

My Pick: Dolphins
My fourth SAFE PICK

Detroit (4-10, 1-5 away) at New Orleans (3-11, 1-6 home):
The fact that this game exists and is being played on Christmas Eve should replace the lump of coal I’m expecting in my Christmas stocking as punishment from Santa. Personally I think I’d rather take the coal…
My Pick: Saints

Atlanta (8-6, 4-3 away) at Tampa Bay (9-5, 4-2 home):
Yes, the Bucs have always had Vick’s number since he came into the league. But….(read KC/San Diego blurb above)
My Pick: Falcons
My fifth SAFE PICK

New York Giants (10-4, 3-3 away) at Washington (8-6, 5-2 home):
Sure, the Giants destroyed the ‘skins last time they met…But that was a long time ago and Washington is playing with a sense of desperation that the G-men won’t be able to match…
My Pick: Redskins

Dallas (8-6, 3-4 away) at Carolina (10-4, 5-2 home):
Who knows what the Panthers are going to do these days…All I know is, Parcells should have his squad embarrassed and prepared…Plus Bledsoe alternates good and bad performances this season it seems…
My Pick: Cowboys

Jacksonville (10-4, 5-2 away) at Houston (2-12, 2-5 home):
Houston won one last week to make it look legit when they lose next week to San Francisco and get the draft rights to Reggie Bush. They’ll keep this as close as they can but make sure to lose it in the end…
My Pick: Jaguars

Philadelphia (6-8, 2-5 away) at Arizona (4-10, 2-5 home):
If the Cardinals can get a few decent throws out of one of their backup QBs they should be able to pull out the win here with their dynamic receiving duo…
My Pick: Cardinals

Oakland (4-10, 2-5 away) at Denver (11-3, 7-0 home):
Broncos roll over the dead-in-the-water Raiders…

My Pick: Broncos

Indianapolis (13-1, 7-0 away) at Seattle (12-2, 7-0 home):
My heart goes out to the Dungy family, who are dealing with an unimaginable tragedy right now. When something like this happens, it really puts things into perspective. Football is just a game and Tony Dungy’s family is his life. My best wishes are with you right now Tony Dungy, and I wish you and your family the happiest holidays possible under the circumstances. R.I.P. James Dungy…
My Pick: Seahawks (a meaningless game and a meaningless outcome)

Chicago (10-4, 3-3 away) at Green Bay (3-11, 2-4 home):
Favre still has a little bit of pride left and the Bears still can’t score on offense…
My Pick: Packers in the Christmas Day upset

Minnesota (8-6, 3-4 away) at Baltimore (5-9, 5-2 home):
The Ravens look like a potential spoiler but I think the Vikes have more heart than to let themselves be taken out of the playoff hunt here…I predict the Bears lose and next week Chicago-Minnesota will square off with the NFC North title on the line…
My Pick: Vikings

New England (9-5, 4-3 away) at New York Jets (3-11, 3-3 home):
Look for Tom Brady to add to his NFL-leading passing yards as the Pats should win big…

My Pick: Patriots
My sixth SAFE PICK

And now…time for some egg nog and procrastinated present wrapping…Merry Christmas everyone and look for a Red Sox entry here sometime next week…

Pandemonic Parity

2005-12-15T21:11:00.000-08:00

This Just In…
We now take a break from our regular scheduled programming of exams, papers and Labatt Blue to give you Benji’s Wild and Wacky Week 15 picks:

Last Week:
Overall: 12-4
Safe Picks: 6-0

The playoff picture is a mess in both conferences and after this week I expect even more chaos to ensue. A lot of teams are fighting for their playoff lives right now and I expect desperation to be a key factor in many of these match-ups; forget my wintry weather theory; forget home-field advantage; forget even playing for the history books. Let the madness begin!!

We’ll start with the Saturday games:

Tampa Bay (9-4, 5-2 away) at New England (8-5, 4-2 home):
The Patriots are finally starting to get healthy and they looked pretty impressive last week…Does this spell trouble for the rest of the league? Let’s not rate them as Super Bowl contenders again quite yet; they were playing the Bills. But it could spell trouble for the Buccaneers, who are traditionally bad in cold-weather games and should help me up my record in games I’ve picked bearing the “wintry weather theory” tag. Tampa Bay has also been consistently inconsistent lately; alternating good and bad performances. You never know quite what you’re going to get from them but I can’t see them beating the Pats in Foxboro after their inspired effort last week against the Panthers, if only because they can’t seem to put together two good games in a row…

My Pick: Patriots
My First SAFE PICK

Denver (10-3, 3-3 away) at Buffalo (4-9, 4-3 home):
Damn, I would love to pick an upset here but I just can’t justify it…The Broncos have played miserably on offense as of late and the Bills have picked up all 4 of their wins at home…but the Bills’ run defense (as I love to point out every week) is atrocious and their offense has been even worse than Denver’s. Losman is not the answer; the Bills need to do some QB shopping in the off-season. Maybe they should try to trade for Atlanta backup Matt Schuab?
My Pick: Broncos

Kansas City (8-5, 3-4 away) at New York Giants (9-4, 6-1 home):
Yes, the Chiefs are 3-4 on the road and the Giants are 6-1 at home. Yes the Giants’ defense has played very well during the second half of the year, especially at home, leading the NFC in turnover ratio at +11. But, I’m going to throw all the stats out the window and tell you what really needs to be examined here…Eli Manning is an inconsistent quarterback and has lately been making a lot of bad passes, nearly losing a game to the lowly Eagles last week by himself. Dr. Z (from Sports Illustrated) put it best in his most recent column:
“Why should we send Eli Manning to Cuba?”
“Because he could overthrow Castro!”
But let’s forget the jokes for a minute, as we know Dick Vermeil and the Chiefs will on Saturday. They are certainly taking this game very very seriously and I expect to see them play with an inspired sense of desperation and urgency that the Giants won’t be able to match. Trent Green (3,287 passing yards) and Larry Johnson (averaging 141 rushing yards in the last 6 games) are going to come through as they have all year and although I don’t expect the Giants to lay down and die, I can’t see them winning this one. In fact, I am so sure that I am going to make this pick a SAFE PICK as well.

My Pick: Chiefs pull off the upset and keep their playoff hopes alive…
My Second SAFE PICK

WHEW…You thought that was wild? You haven’t seen anything yet…On to the Sunday games…

Seattle (11-2, 4-2 away) at Tennessee (4-9, 3-4 home):
I could waste a bunch of time and space here babbling on about how the Titans might have a chance since they’re playing at home, where they’ve played decently this year and how Seattle, having clinched their division, may suffer a letdown but let’s be serious…The Seahawks still have a lot to play for as they need to keep winning to get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Titans? They only beat the Texans last week because they had the game intentionally handed to them (We’ll revisit this again a bit later). The real question is will this game be as lopsided as the Seahawks’ last two games?

My Pick: Seahawks
My Third SAFE PICK

San Diego (8-5, 4-2 away) at Indianapolis (13-0, 6-0 home):
Every analyst whose column I’ve read over the last few days has backed off picking an upset here. I guess I can see why; the Chargers’ effort last week against the Dolphins was hardly awe-inspiring. But we can all agree that if the Colts don’t lose this one, then nobody left on their regular season schedule is going to beat them. Despite the fact that everyone else who had joined me on the Chargers’ bandwagon has jumped off, I’m staying. Here’s what I know: The Colts have relied all year on having a balanced offense, rushing and passing. I expect Edgerrin James to be shut down this week by San Diego’s top ranked run defense (allowing under 80 rushing yards a game) forcing Peyton to air it up. And why is that a bad thing? Let me spell it out for you…Remember the last game that Indy played in which they had a realistic shot at losing? When they squared off against the Bengals in Cincinnati they found themselves in a shootout with a talented offensive team and Edgerrin James was held to 89 yards rushing. This forced Manning to have to win a shootout in a QB duel between him and Carson Palmer, and although he pulled out the victory in the 4th quarter when Palmer faltered, the Bengals were just on the cusp of taking control of that game, and would have if Manning hadn’t performed so brilliantly, throwing for 365 yards and playing mistake-free football down the stretch. The Chargers may not be as good a team as the Bengals and Drew Brees may not be as good a quarterback as Carson Palmer, but I expect the same type of firefight to ensue on Sunday. One thing that the Chargers have going for them is the desperation factor: If they lose this game then their season is essentially over. The Colts may be playing for history, but do they have enough fire left to beat a team on the verge of elimination who will stop at nothing to beat them? I may go down with the Chargers’ ship on this one, but I know this is going to be a competitive game regardless of what the analysts are saying and I know San Diego needs the victory to stay alive. This game will show me what kind of character this Colts team has and whether not they finally have what it takes to win it all or if they are destined for another season of underachievement…

My Pick: Chargers keep their season alive and prevent history from being made

Philadelphia (5-8, 1-5 away) at St. Louis (5-8, 3-3 home):
A battle of mediocrity…The Eagles did compete pretty well against the Giants last week but that was because Eli Manning tried to give the game away. I’ll take the Rams since they’re at home, and have their top two playmakers (Holt and Bruce) healthy.

My Pick: Rams

New York Jets (3-10, 0-7 away) at Miami (6-7, 3-3 home):
Ok, it’s official. The Jets now have nothing to win or lose for after their victory last week over the Raiders. They are awful, but not awful enough to be in the race for Reggie Bush. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have played pretty well lately, and pulled off that stunning upset over the Chargers last week. The Dolphins should be able to come out on top here, especially considering the Jets’ 0-7 mark on the road…

My Pick: Dolphins

Pittsburgh (8-5, 4-2 away) at Minnesota (8-5, 5-1 home):
The Vikings have put together quite the streak over the past month or so, winning six straight games and climbing to within a game of Chicago and the NFC North lead. It hasn’t always been pretty, but these Vikings have shown late-game poise uncharacteristic of Mike Tice’s teams, as they have won every close game that they have been in, always coming through down the stretch. They have pulled off this streak because of an improved running game (Moore and Bennett have been an effective tandem), solid if not spectacular quarterbacking from Brad Johnson (who won’t always win you the game but will never lose it for you) and a solid secondary led by safety Darren Sharper. The most important factor here though is that the Steelers need this game more than the Vikings do. With a loss, Minnesota is still in the hunt for a wildcard spot (or even the division title if another of my predictions plays out) but if the Steelers lose on Sunday, their season is finished. One would think that the Vikings are due to lose a game, and I think they won’t be able to stop Pittsburgh on Sunday, even if they are playing at home and haven’t lost there in what seems like years. I think the Steelers will find themselves playing their kind of game; a low scoring affair in which they will, rather than trying to attack the Vikings’ secondary with Rothlisberger’s injured throwing hand, pound the 17th ranked rush defense of the Vikes using a mix and match combination of Jerome Betis and Willie Parker and will come out on top.

My Pick: Steelers end the Vikings’ winning streak
My fourth SAFE PICK

Carolina (9-4, 4-2 away) at New Orleans (3-10, 1-5 home):
After the egg they laid last week against Tampa, I’m not sure what to expect from the Panthers. The Saints may come out with an inspired effort now that Jim Haslett has finally benched Aaron Brooks. Todd Bouman is not the most talented QB in the world but with the kind of WR playmakers this team has in Joe Horn and Donte Stall’worth he should be able to produce a few big plays. But, I think DeShaun Foster is going to have a huge game for the Panthers, as he is facing the Saints’ 29th ranked rushing defense, and that should prove to be the difference…

My Pick: Panthers

San Francisco (2-11, 0-6 away) at Jacksonville (9-4, 4-2 home):
I think that the 49ers are going to compete in this one. The Jaguars know that they can coast the rest of the way and it would be easy for them to look past this game. Still, they should be able to regain their footing down the stretch and hold on to win.
I could and probably would pick this upset if the 49ers had some semblance of a running or passing game and had a secondary that could hold opposing QBs under 300 yards consistently (Trent Dilfer and Kyle Orton don’t count).

My Pick: Jaguars avoid the upset

Arizona (4-9, 2-4 away) at Houston (1-12, 1-5 home):
Anybody who watched or saw highlights of the 4th quarter of the Texans/Titans game last week agrees with me: The Texans are giving games away; blatantly losing on purpose so they can get the #1 pick and Reggie Bush. I was saying this before last week’s game but Kris Brown’s last second 30 yard FG attempt, that would have tied the game, confirmed it for me. It missed not only the uprights but also the net in back of the uprights. It was kicked so low that it looked like he kicked a soccer ball on goal and toe-balled it. This coming from a kicker who over the course of his entire career before this game had missed only one kick from 30 yards away or closer and the one he missed was blocked! The Texans seriously need to be careful or the league may investigate…They shouldn’t have any trouble losing this game though. Their 25th ranked passing defense is perfectly designed for the Cardinals to tear apart with their potent aerial attack.

My Pick: Cardinals should blow out the Texans
My fifth SAFE PICK

Cincinnati (10-3, 5-1 away) at Detroit (4-9, 3-4 home):
The Bengals and Carson Palmer, after nearly losing to Cleveland should look much sharper against the Lions this week, and won’t be looking past this game. And really, the Lions are pretty awful. They can’t stop anyone; not even the Packers. And have they tried looking at a third option at QB? Neither Garcia or Harrington can throw the ball anymore (I’m not sure Harrington ever could).

My Pick: Bengals
My sixth SAFE PICK

Cleveland (4-9, 1-6 away) at Oakland (4-9, 2-4 home):
Sure Cleveland is only 1-6 on the road, but as the season has progressed, the Raiders have gotten worse while the Browns seem much improved, especially after the QB switch from Trent Dilfer to rookie Charlie Frye. Cleveland nearly beat the Bengals last week, while the Raiders lost embarrassingly to an absolutely abysmal Jets team. Romeo Crenel is making a lot of progress with this team and they may be competing for a playoff spot come this time next year…

My Pick: Browns

Dallas (8-5, 3-3 away) at Washington (7-6, 4-2 home):
These two teams are very evenly matched. They both have had inconsistent QB play throughout the season and both rely heavily on defense and special teams to win games. However, the Redskins have much more to lose in this game as they can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye with a loss. I think the Cowboys are likely the better team, if only because they have a better coach in Bill Parcells, but I can’t see them stealing this one on the road from a Washington team that is playing with a hunger fueled by desperation.

My Pick: Redskins

Atlanta (8-5, 4-2 away) at Chicago (9-4, 6-1 home):
I’ve said it before; I’ll say it again: The Bears are overrated!! Yes their defense is likely the best in the league, but at some point to win in the NFL you need to do something on offense (Please don’t bring up the Ravens’ argument because let me remind you that they had Jamal Lewis (in his prime) and Shannon Sharpe). Kyle Orton is the worst rated QB in the league, and has thrown for 200 yards or more twice in 15 games. You can expect little to nothing from this team on offense; they rely completely on their defense and special teams to win games for them. This game will be, as all Bears’ games end up being, a low-scoring affair. I think Jim Mora will take note though of how the Steelers counteracted the Bears’ quickness up front by giving more carries to power back Jerome Betis with great results. Expect the Falcons to try to do the same thing by giving more carries to their power back T.J Duckett. I know I have ridden my “wintry weather theory” for much of this year but I’m abandoning it for this game. The Falcons and ailing QB Michael Vick probably won’t be able to get too much done through the air up in snowy Chicago but I expect them to be able to grind out just enough points on the scoreboard to come out on top. The Bears can’t win every close game can they? And the Falcons obviously need this game far more than Chicago does as they are in a fierce race for a wildcard spot at the moment…

My Pick: Falcons make a statement in their bid for a wildcard spot

Finally we arrive at the Monday Night game…(unfortunately)

Green Bay (3-10, 1-6 away) at Baltimore (4-9, 4-2 home):
Why does it seem like all of the Monday Night match-ups suck? Who wants to watch Kyle Boller and Brett Favre compete to see who can throw the most interceptions? I know I don’t…I’ll take the Pack here just because they are coming off a victory last week against the Lions but it also wouldn’t surprise me if the game ended on an errant Favre pass being taken back for a touchdown.

My Pick: Packers…I guess…I have to pick somebody…

A Neutering Negated...

2005-12-09T03:00:00.000-08:00

Last Week:
13-3 (overall)
4-0 (safe picks)

That second number is a bit deceiving as most of you reading this are aware. The pick that I deemed to be the safest (and gambled the fate of my manhood on) was Miami beating Buffalo. As you all know, the Bills and the second-worst quarterback in the league (QB rating-wise), J.P. Losman, ran out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter against a Dolphins defense still nursing their hangovers from a long night of partying in Miami Beach. Once they woke up, the Bills couldn’t even get a sniff of field goal range, let alone the end zone, but the damage had already been done and it looked like I was going to be singing soprano for the rest of my life. Miami couldn’t get anything done through the air and went into the 4th quarter down 23-3. My balls were as good as busted…But, backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels (who came in after starter Gus Ferrotte got knocked out of the game in the 3rd quarter) re-ignited the Dolphins offense, throwing for nearly 300 yards in less than a half, culminating in a 4th and goal touchdown catch by Chris Chambers that rallied Miami to the 24-23 victory, and thus my manhood lives on…barely. Anyway, let’s get to this week’s picks:

New England (7-5, 3-3 away) at Buffalo (4-8, 4-2 home):
Buffalo is a tough place to play this time of the year, but unfortunately for the Bills, The Patriots will be quite comfortable in the winter environment (unlike the Panthers 2 weeks ago). Plus, I expect Buffalo to be a bit demoralized after blowing a 23-3 lead to the Dolphins last week. Expect a good day (as usual) from Brady, and a finally healthy Corey Dillon to tear up the Bills’ 31st ranked run defense.

My Pick: Patriots
My First Safe Pick Of The Week (sorry, I’m not wagering my balls this time)

Cleveland (4-8, 1-5 away) at Cincinnati (9-3, 4-2 home):
The Bengals made a huge statement last week; they beat the Steelers on the road and are pretty much on cruise control in the division race. Now, they return home to face the Browns and look to continue their crazy scoring spree. This could get ugly…

My Pick: Bengals
My Second Safe Pick Of The Week

Houston (1-11, 0-6 away) at Tennessee (3-9, 2-4 home):
If the Texans are going to win another game this year, this looks like it would be it. At this point though it is in their best interest to keep losing. Maybe drafting Reggie Bush can revitalize this franchise?

My Pick: Titans

St. Louis (5-7, 2-4 away) at Minnesota (7-5, 4-1 home):
The Rams are only 2-4 on the road and are starting a rookie at QB against a solid Vikings secondary. I expect the Vikes to keep on rolling their way towards a playoff berth. No one is taking this team very seriously but they have a great shot at a wildcard berth thanks to a weak second half schedule…

My Pick: Vikings
My Third Safe Pick Of The Week

Oakland (4-8, 2-4 away) at New York Jets (2-10, 2-3 home):
In a game between two struggling teams, I’ll go with the one with some semblance of offensive talent. If the Jets couldn’t beat the Saints at home, I find it hard to believe that they can beat anyone…even with potential “wintry weather” on their side.

My Pick: Raiders

Chicago (9-3, 3-2 away) at Pittsburgh (7-5, 3-3 home):
The Steelers’ backs are against the wall; a loss this week and their season is essentially over. I expect an inspired effort from their offensive line (which has underperformed as of late) and thus the return of the effective ground game that they have missed in recent weeks. I also feel that Chicago is due to lose a game…

My Pick: Steelers

Tampa Bay (8-4, 4-2 away) at Carolina (9-3, 5-1 home):
Before last week, I was skeptical about the Panthers’ running game but against the Falcons the recently promoted Deshaun Foster eased my doubts by tearing up Atlanta’s defense on the ground to the tune of 131 yards on 24 carries. They also impressed me with the ease with which they shut down Michael Vick both on the ground and through the air. Expect more of the same against the Bucs at home (who could barely beat the Saints) as the Panthers continue to make their case for being the best team in the NFC…The question is can they stop Shaun Alexander and the Seahawks in Seattle come playoff time?

My Pick: Panthers

Indianapolis (12-0, 6-0 away) at Jacksonville (9-3, 4-1 home):
It seems as though every analyst thinks this could be an upset win by the Jags but they are scared to pick it so they are just taking the middle road and saying that it will be a close game. I disagree. I think the Colts will win this one fairly easily as David Garrard really has yet to prove anything to me other than that he can beat the Cleveland Browns and I’m not sure Jacksonville’s D is as good as they appear to be statistically(5th in the league). They seem to have a habit of letting every team they play back into the game in the 4th quarter…

My Pick: Colts
My Fourth Safe Pick Of The Week

New York Giants (8-4, 2-3 away) at Philadelphia (5-7, 4-2 home):
The Giants took control of the division with their victory over Dallas last week and this game should be a bit of a relief for them after two tough games in a row. Unless L.J. Smith can find a way to, by himself, take on all of the roles of his injured compatriots and throw, run and catch at an ALL-Pro level, the Eagles don’t stand a chance…

My Pick: Giants

Washington (6-6, 2-4 away) at Arizona (4-8, 2-4 home):
The Redskins dispatched Kurt Warner’s former mediocre team last week; expect them to take care of his current mediocre team this week, even on the road. The ‘skins aren’t out of the hunt yet…Portis and Cartright each rushed for over 100 yards against the Rams last week and I expect another good game on the ground, facing the 19th ranked rush defense of the Cardinals. Warner will probably put up good numbers again this week, but expect the Redskins to hold him out of the endzone for the most part as they have much more to play for, and are far from out in the NFC wildcard race...

My Pick: Redskins

San Francisco (2-10, 0-5 away) at Seattle (10-2, 6-0 home):
I’m going to have to go out on a limb here and say that I don’t expect any Seahawk starters to still be in the game by the time the 4th quarter rolls around…

My Pick: Seahawks in another laugher
For the hell of it, let’s add a 5th safe pick this week

Kansas City (8-4, 3-3 away) at Dallas (7-5, 4-2 home):
The game may be in Dallas and the Cowboys may have a solid defense (6th in the league) but I’m not convinced that the Chiefs’ offense can be stopped by any defense short of the Bears the way they played last week against Denver. Plus Bledsoe has looked absolutely awful as of late…

My Pick: Chiefs pull of the upset

Baltimore (4-8, 0-6 away) at Denver (9-3, 6-0 home):
This one looks to be another no-brainer. The Broncos will take care of business at home and stay one game up in the division race…

My Pick: Broncos
I guess we can add a 6th safe pick…this one’s too obvious to ignore as well.

Miami (5-7, 2-4 away) at San Diego (8-4, 4-2 home):
Sage Rosenfels looked pretty good last week (as previously mentioned) and I expect him to have another big week passing the ball. However, at home I don’t think that the Chargers’ offense can be stopped by anyone…

My Pick: Chargers in a shootout

Detroit (4-8, 1-4 away) at Green Bay (2-10, 1-4 home):
If Brett Favre and the Pack are going to win another game this year than this would be it. The Lions, no matter who is starting at QB, are awful…

My Pick: Packers

New Orleans (3-9, 2-4 away) at Atlanta (7-5, 3-3 home):
This Monday night match-up looks on paper to be pretty one-sided. I have a feeling that it’s going to be closer than people expect though as the Saints tend to compete in games that they have no business being in. I for-see a big day from Aaron Brooks and Joe Horn, but I think in the end, Michael Vick and the Falcons will hold on for the victory and keep pace for a wild card spot…

My Pick: Falcons in a surprisingly close game

En Route To Retaining Ramirez…

2005-11-30T16:15:00.000-08:00

This post applies only to those readers of my blog who are members of Red Sox Nation.

As most of you are likely already aware, due to conflicts with the Boston media and fans, star slugger and quirky loveably aloof icon Manny Ramirez has requested a trade. In the past, Manny has overreacted and claimed that he wanted out, but he always came around with a quick smile, a new hairstyle, and a clutch homerun to win back our hearts. This time however, he could be serious, as he has put his $6.9 million Boston condominium on the market, and his teammate (and supposed best friend on the team) David Ortiz said recently that he doesn’t believe that Ramirez will be back with the Red Sox next season. Ramirez has always been a target of the Boston media as he is often criticized for his defensive lapses (although he had a very good year defensively last year with 243 putouts and 17 outfield assists) and for his lack of effort, especially in running out ground balls. How quick they are to overlook his defensive improvement and his offensive statistics that have remained consistent in the era of MLB A.S(after steroids). Not only has he been a great hitter (putting together a string of seasons since his arrival in 2001 that rival those of all-time Red Sox greats) but in an age where few statistics are believed or untarnished, a clean one as well.

Red Sox fan Jeffrey M. Guinee, who created a website earlier this week (KEEPMANNY.com) urging fellow members of Red Sox nation to sign a petition expressing their love for Ramirez, believes (as do I) that "because of the media there's this undertone that Manny's not wanted here; but, we think that if the masses were heard it wouldn't even be close. It would be like 10-1 to keep Manny." As of Wednesday afternoon over 14,000 Red Sox fans (including myself) have signed the petition and I urge you all to do the same.

Click Here to Enter KeepManny.com

I like rusty spoons...

2005-11-30T01:37:00.000-08:00

I like it when the red water comes out...

(Click at your own risk)

Pigskin-Induced Delirium: Case 13

2005-11-30T01:35:00.000-08:00

Last week I broke back into the double-digit correct picks week club again for the first time since Week 3...despite not being intelligent enough to realize that Detroit plays in a dome. Can I continue my revived success this week and punch in another 10+ correct picks? It will be tough with a multitude of daunting match-ups set to unfold, but I'll give it a try...

Last Week: 12-4
(How about this for a formula? Week 12 :: 12 Correct Picks As Week 13:: 13 Correct Picks?? Damn, I hope I didn't just jinx myself?)

Green Bay (2-9, 1-5 away) at Chicago (8-3, 5-1 home):
With no offensive line to speak of and no receivers to throw to, expect another tough day for Brett Favre.,,He couldn't even complete half of his passes last week against a depleted Eagles secondary so I expect this one to be rather unsightly. Favre has discovered a newfound talent for throwing interceptions into the end-zone (2 of them last week) and has 19 touchdowns and 19 picks this season.

My Pick: Bears

Jacksonville (8-3, 4-2 away) at Cleveland (4-7, 3-2 home):
(Note: This pick has been changed as of Friday afternoon)
I can't very well abandon my "wintry weather" theory now, even though the Bills couldn't quite hold on last week...The updated weather report for Sunday in Cleveland looks like this: temperatures in the low 30's, snow and high winds.
This already looked like a favorable match-up for Cleveland, as they are 3-2 at home, Jaguars' starting QB Byron Leftwich is out and Rueben Droughns has racked up 100+ rushing yards in his last 3 home games. Now though, you can throw both quarterbacks out the window, as the passing game will be a moot point in these extreme winter conditions. Despite Leftwich being out, this actually works in Cleveland's favor as their Trent Dilfer-led passing game is far worse than a David Garrard-led one. This one will be decided on the ground and I feel that this heavily favors the Browns despite their 28th ranked rush defense (as compared to the Jaguars' 14th ranked run D). Fred Taylor is back as the starting RB for Jacksonville and he has been hindered by injuries all season, and I don't expect him to be especially sharp after missing 2 out of the last 3 games. Meanwhile, Rueben Droughns has been unstoppable at home, racking up over 5 yards per carry in his last 3 outings. The Jags are 3-5 in their last 8 games playing in temperatures of 35 degrees or lower and I expect them to be 3-6 after this one...

My Pick: Browns give new credence to my "wintry weather" theory

Minnesota (6-5, 2-4 away) at Detroit (4-7, 3-3 home):
The Lions will never be winners with Millen running them. If they were going to can somebody they should have taken a look at the man responsible for putting this underperforming roster together. Meanwhile, the Vikings, with Brad Johnson at the helm and a surprisingly solid secondary that will feast on Harrington/Garcia's deliciously weak passes, are looking to continue their push for a playoff spot. Mike Tice has gone from about-to-be-run-out-of-town to possible-coach-of-the-year...

My Pick: Vikings

Tennessee (3-8, 1-4 away) at Indianapolis (11-0, 5-0 home):
Steve McNair looked like his old self last week, but that was against the 49ers at home. Expect a second straight strong game from the Indy D (4th in the league) and the usual firepower from Manning, James and co as the undefeated Colts stay perfect...for now.

My Pick: Colts

Buffalo (4-7, 0-5 away) at Miami (4-7, 2-3 home)
It's no secret that the Bills are absolutely awful on the road (winless on the year). They also have an atrocious run defense (31st in the NFL ahead of only the Texans) and the Dolphins' offense is fueled by their double-headed running game (Ronnie Brown and the recently re-energized Ricky Williams). Pick the Bills in this one only if you are mentally challenged...

My Pick: Dolphins
SAFE PICK OF THE WEEK #1 (If I am wrong all readers of my blog are allowed to punch me as hard as they can in the groin, granted they picked the Bills to win)

Tampa Bay (7-4, 3-2 away) at New Orleans (3-8, 1-4 home):
The Saints proved two things to me last week against the Jets: they can pass the ball well enough to make their offensive statistics look impressive without actually putting up very many points and their defense can barely stop even the most anemic of offenses. Expect another solid game from the Bucs' second-ranked D and huge days offensively from Chris Simms and Joey Galloway...

My Pick: Buccaneers

Dallas (7-4, 3-2 away) at New York Giants (7-4, 5-1 home):
Finally we arrive at the first of several tough picks...Currently tied for the division lead, both of these teams are fighting for a playoff spot and will fall behind with a loss. The Giants blew three chances to win last week against Seattle on three missed field goals by Jay Feely, while the Cowboys (besides losing to Denver last week after a missed field goal of their own) lost several games earlier in the year as a result of late-game miscues from quarterback Drew Bledsoe. Thus, both teams have proven to be unreliable in clutch situations. However, both teams are well-coached and boast solid defenses (The Cowboys are 6th in the NFL in defense and the Giants are +11 in turnover ratio and have played extremely well in the second half of the season). This one's tough to call, but I'll take the G-men who I can't see losing two straight at home with the consistency which their defense and Tiki Barber have played with as of late. It'll be close; I could just as easily see the Cowboys taking this one...

My Pick: Giants come out on top in a hard-fought battle for the division lead

Cincinnati (8-3, 4-1 away) at Pittsburgh (7-4, 3-2 home):
Note: This Pick has been changed (as of Friday morning)
Playing at home seems to mean very little for either of these teams as they both have close to identical home and away records so far this season. These are two evenly-matched teams (although they play the game very differently). The Steelers will try to control the pace of the game (allowing Carson Palmer as little time on the field as possible) with their dynamic running duo of Willie Parker and Jerome Betis. They better because if Big Ben is forced to air it out, things could get ugly. In addition to the injuries to both knees that Rothlisberger is coming back from, last week against the Colts he "tweaked" his ankle and severely injured the thumb on his throwing hand to the point where he has to wear a protective device over his hand in order to practice. It would be unfair to expect him to be able to throw with his usual poise and precision on Sunday and obviously his mobility will be hindered as well. When you think about it, with their decimated offensive line that has performed very poorly in recent weeks, the Steelers' running game (which is essential to them winning the game) becomes a question mark and they are one bad hit away from having to hand the reins over to Tommy Maddox. The Bengals have proven to me so far this year that they can put up points with the best of them, but they can't make the plays when it matters against a good team. I think they finally get it together this weekend and leave Pittsburgh retaining the division lead. They have come a long way this season, and they are far better than the team that lost to the Steelers in Cincy earlier in the year. Palmer will be looking to get revenge against the one team that he played badly against this season, and I think the league's top-ranked quarterback (and his favorite target Chad Johnson, who has guaranteed that he "won't be stopped") will get the upper hand against their injury-weakened division rivals...

My Pick: Bengals finally beat a good team

Atlanta (7-4, 4-1 away) at Carolina (8-3, 4-1 home):
Atlanta has actually played better on the road this season than they have at home. Carolina has played horribly on offense the last couple weeks; they managed only a field goal against the Bears two weeks ago and barely beat the Bills last week. The Panthers' offense (no matter who the running back is) is one-dimensional and teams have realized that the Panthers cannot run the ball. The Falcons played great last week and showcased a balanced offense and a great running game (one that I think will eventually wear down the Panthers' third-ranked rushing defense with the contrasting running styles of Vick, Dunn and Duckett). I expect the Falcons to leave Carolina with a share of the NFC South lead...

My Pick: Falcons in yet another great match-up

Houston (1-10, 0-5 away) at Baltimore (3-8, 3-2 home):
With the great passing numbers that Carr put up last week against the Rams, it's tempting to pick the upset here...However, keep in mind that half the guys in an already sub-par St. Louis secondary were out with injuries so they were basically playing against college DBs. There are still a few guys on the Ravens that can play some defense and they did put up a lot of second half points against the Bengals last week...

My Pick: Ravens

Washington (5-6, 1-4 away) at St. Louis (5-6, 3-2 home):
The downward spiral continues for the Redskins who choked yet again last week against the Chargers. The Rams staged a furious fourth quarter comeback last week under rookie quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Expect the Redskins to come up short again as their inability to force turnovers and prevent them (-11 turnover/opponent turnover ratio on the season) causes them to lose another close game. Despite their weak defense, offense will prevail and Stephen Jackson, Tory Holt and co will pick up the victory and keep their slim playoff hopes alive...

My Pick: Rams

Arizona (3-8, 1-4 away) at San Francisco (2-9, 2-4 home):
Do I really have to pick this game?? At least I can take solace in the fact that I don't have to watch it...Expect Kurt Warner (who has thrown for 300+ yards in 3 of 4 games since being re-instated as the starting quarterback) to light up the porous '9er defense (dead last in the league) and lead the Cardinals to victory. Arizona could be decent next year if they shored up their defense and added a quality running back to complement Warner, Fitzgerald and Bouldin...

My Pick: Cardinals

Denver (9-2, 3-2 away) at Kansas City (7-4, 4-1 home):
The Broncos haven't lost a game in awhile and I feel like they're due. They got lucky last week against the Cowboys, dodging a bullet with a missed field goal, and had to pull a miraculous run out of the forgotten Ron Dayne to get the victory. Meanwhile the Chiefs were busy taking care of business against the Patriots and picking off Tom Brady 4 times. The Broncos' offense will be nearly as one-dimensional as the Pats' without Tatum Bell in the game to complement Mike Anderson and the Chiefs' Larry Johnson will have a tough time against Denver's top ranked rushing defense. This one will be decided through the air and I expect passes thrown early and often, with each team taking advantage of the other's suspect secondary. I'm taking the Chiefs here because they are at home and because their defense showed some ability to create turnovers last week against Tom Brady and the Pats...

My Pick: Chiefs win in a shootout

New York Jets (2-9, 0-6 away) at New England (6-5, 3-2 home):
The punchless Jets couldn't even beat the Saints at home last week; It's difficult to see them picking up their first road win against the Patriots and Tom Brady who always bounces back well after a bad game...

My Pick: Patriots are a no-brainer in this one
SAFE PICK OF THE WEEK #2

Oakland (4-7, 2-3 away) at San Diego (7-4, 3-2 home):
The Raiders looked awful last week at home against the then-struggling Dolphins. There's no way that they can go into San Diego against a well-balanced team fighting for the last wild card spot in the AFC and come out victorious...

My Pick: Chargers without a doubt
SAFE PICK OF THE WEEK #3

Monday Night:
Seattle (9-2, 3-2 away) at Philadelphia (5-6, 4-1 home):
Don't be tempted by looking at the Seahawks' offensive struggles against the Giants late in the game last week or the Eagles' 4-1 record at home this season. The Eagles' defense is depleted and Mike McMahon only threw for 91 yards last week against an atrocious Packer secondary. Expect a big offensive day from Hasselbeck and Alexander as the Eagles' last hopes of making the playoffs are torn away from them and their nightmare season plods onward...

My Pick: Seahawks in a laugher
SAFE PICK OF THE WEEK #4

Thanksgiving Leftovers...

2005-11-25T15:52:00.000-08:00

As promised, here is the second segment of my weekly NFL picks:

Last Week: 9-7

Carolina (7-3, 3-2 away) at Buffalo (4-6, 4-1 home):
We all know how well my “winter weather theory” worked in the Thanksgiving game, but let me assure you; Buffalo does not play in a dome (just ask the Chiefs). The Bills are also 4-1 at home and the Panthers are only 3-2 on the road. Expect another rough day for the Panther passing game. Too bad they don’t have a running game because that’s how this one will be decided…

My Pick: Bills

Baltimore (3-7, 0-5 away) at Cincinnati (7-3, 3-2 home):
Yeah, Cincy may only be 3-2 at home as compared to 4-1 on the road, but two of those home losses were to the Steelers and Colts. Against the depleted defense of the Ravens, expect the Bengal offense to run rampant. If you weren’t convinced of the Bengals’ O before last week, you have to be now after they pummeled a solid Indy D on the ground and through the air only to lose a shootout…

My Pick: Bengals in a blow-out

San Francisco (2-8, 0-4 away) at Tennessee (2-8, 1-4 home):
Both of these teams are horrible, but I’ll take the home team in this one. The 49ers have yet to win a game on the road and the Titans at least have one quality player in running back Chris Brown. Who knows, against the porous secondary of the ‘9ers, maybe Steve McNair will conjure up flashbacks of three years ago when he was actually good?

My Pick: Titans

New England (6-4, 3-2 away) at Kansas City (6-4, 3-1 home):
As much as I love my Pats, their defense this year is atrocious (second to last in the league). They made Aaron Brooks look like Joe Montana last week before holding on for the victory. I expect the Chiefs’ offense to get up early in this one and never look back, with huge games from Larry Johnson and Trent Green. (Its’ ok, we could win only one more game this year and still back into the playoffs in the AFC Least)

My Pick: Chiefs

Cleveland (4-6, 1-4 away) at Minnesota (5-5, 3-1 home):
The Vikings are playing very well right now and I expect their run of success to continue in this game. Rueben Droughns will come back down to earth and the real story of the day will be the Vikings’ surprisingly solid secondary (led by Darren Sharper) making Trent Dilfer look like Trent Dilfer.

My Pick: Vikings

Chicago (7-3, 2-2 away) at Tampa Bay (7-3, 4-1 home):
The Bucs seem to have forgotten how to play defense in recent weeks…Fortunately they have in the same period figured out how to score. The D doesn’t matter against the Bears anyway who can only score when their defense sets them up in the red zone. This should be a low scoring affair with Tampa pulling out a close one at home. The Bears’ lack of offense has to catch up with them sometime…

My Pick: Buccaneers in a close one

San Diego (6-4, 3-2 away) at Washington (5-5, 4-1 home):
The ‘Skins downward spiral continues as Brees, Tomlinson and Gates come into town fighting for a wildcard berth. It seems that teams have figured out that they can double team Moss and none of Washington’s other receivers are capable of stepping up (especially with David Patton out for the year now)….

My Pick: Chargers

St. Louis (4-6, 1-4 away) at Houston (1-9, 1-4 home):
The Rams are only 1-4 on the road and without starting quarterback Marc Bulger; however I don’t think that the Texans (with their NCAA Division III-quality secondary) are capable of beating a team with any semblance of a passing game.
Expect big days from Martin, Holt and Bruce…
(Note: The one team that Houston beat this year(which was one of the few correct games that I called) was the Trent Dilfer-led Browns).

My Pick: Rams

Miami (3-7, 1-4 away) at Oakland (4-6, 2-3 home):
I’m not really going to get into this, but what was Nick Saban thinking at that press conference telling his team and fans that “the record doesn’t matter”? At any rate, the Raiders are the better team anyway, with a balanced offense, even without any contribution whatsoever from Randy Moss…

My Pick: Raiders

Jacksonville (7-3, 3-2 away) at Arizona (3-7, 2-3 home):
The Cardinals have been playing well lately, but I expect Byron Leftwich to come through in the 4th quarter and pull out the victory.

My Pick: Jaguars in a close one

Green Bay (2-8, 1-4 away) at Philadelphia (4-6, 3-1 home):
All the talk surrounding this game (outside of Terrell Owens getting the rest of the winter off) is about the Eagles’ injuries. Well, what about the Packers? Brett Favre hasn’t had his top two receivers healthy all year and their running game is relying on a back who couldn’t even find consistent playing time in college and is incapable of holding onto the ball. Plus, the Packers defense is awful. The real question is whether or not Favre will be a good sport and sign an autograph for Mike McMahon after the game.

My Pick: Eagles ( I guess my strategy is, if you keep picking them, they have to win eventually right?)

New Orleans (2-8, 1-4 away) at New York Jets (2-8, 2-2 home):
According to the statistics, I should go with the Jets here as they have some semblance of a defense. But how can you, as ESPN.com has, favor the Jets because of their running game? Curtis Martin has been banged up and has underperformed all year. The Jets in actuality have no offensive ability whatsoever, down to their third-string quarterback and with no real receivers other than Coles. Meanwhile, as awful as New Orleans has been this year, they can pass the ball…

My Pick: Saints win…nobody cares

New York Giants (7-3, 2-2 away) at Seattle (8-2, 5-0 home):
The Seahawks are undefeated at home this season and I expect it to stay that way. However, the Giants D should put up a pretty good fight and hold Shaun Alexander under 100 yards. In the end, the more consistent Hasselbeck will out-duel Manning in the 4th quarter…Stop the presses, Seattle is my pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl!! Is anybody ever going to start recognizing how good these guys are? I think this game will be a statement for them, helping them to make their case as the best team in the NFC…

My Pick: Seahawks

Pittsburgh (7-3, 4-1 away) at Indianapolis (10-0, 4-0 home):
If the Bengals couldn’t beat the Colts in Cincy with 2 weeks to prepare, than I can’t see how the Steelers, in Rothlisberger’s first game back from knee surgery, can pull of the upset, a week removed from losing to the Ravens. The Colt show rolls on…Look for the next potential first Indy loss a couple weeks down the road against San Diego.

My Pick: Colts

Wilbon and Kornheiser were wrong...

2005-11-24T20:15:00.000-08:00

I'm this year's biggest turkey, as my good friend Brian "the Great" kindly pointed out...

Benji,
I know you love your theory about how the southern teams can't handle the cold of the northern teams. How come you don't consider that the lions play in a dome? common, the falcons won't have to worry about the cold at all. Plus i'm watching the game and the lions are sucking, no wonder you're 13 picks behind me.

In other news, i saw the 100th meeting between framingham and natick today, and i nearly froze my nuts off. it was snowing and balls cold. okay benji, have a good break.

BRIAN

What can I say, I'm an idiot...Obviously if the Lions are capable of hosting a Super Bowl living in the snowy North, then they would have to play in a dome. I knew that they did, I think I was just so impressed that my snowy weather theory had worked so well thus far (and has yet to let me down) that I acted rashly without thinking. I will make up for it by proving my wintry environment theory to still be correct in one of my picks on Sunday (see if you can guess which one before I pick). At any rate, it's been an off year for me this year picking games and I don't forsee myself making much of a stir in the regular season...Maybe I'm saving it all for the playoffs? We shall see...Any way you look at it, I'm still better at picking than Brian's man Chris Berman...Perhaps he should find a new sportscaster to idolize who actually has a vague understanding of the sports that he covers....

Turkey Day Sports Musings

2005-11-24T10:04:00.000-08:00

It’s Thanksgiving and you know what that means: the annual Thanksgiving snowstorm and sub-par televised football!! (not to mention me eating an obscene amount of food and adding 10 more pounds to my already massive girth).

This week my picks will appear in two segments, the first being today, less than an hour before kick-off:
Atlanta at Detroit:
Just a few weeks ago, the Falcons looked like they were unbeatable and the Lions looked as though they couldn’t win another game. My, how the tables have turned!! The Falcons have lost two straight at home to less-talented teams and now have to travel to cold, snowy Detroit to get back on track…Not happening!! We’ve seen how well teams from the South have fared in the wintry Northern environment so far this year (Carolina and K.C. were destroyed in Chicago and Buffalo respectively) and I expect more of the same in this game, as the Lions take advantage of the 20 degree snowy weather to give their fans something to be thankful for…

My Pick: Lions

Denver at Dallas:
The Cowboys have a solid, athletic defense, but the Broncos offense will be too much for them. Even without Tatum Bell, Denver boasts the most balanced offense in the league and Jake Plummer has matured into a solid, consistent NFL quarterback and earned the permanent starting spot on my fantasy team…

My Pick: Broncos

In other NFL news:

On Wednesday Richard Bloch, the arbitrator in the Terrell Owens case, ruled in favor of the Eagles. The arbitrator found that Owen’s (mis)conduct was “destructive and a continuing threat to the team.” In a word, “duh?” I was surprised by the ruling to be sure, but I’m glad to see that somebody out there has some sense of morality and isn’t ruled by the Benjamins, ratings and fear of the NFL Players Association. We can’t allow childish, disrespectful over-paid athletes to destroy what little sense of morality we have left. Richard Bloch, if I knew how to cook, I would drive myself to your house through this snowstorm and cook you Thanksgiving dinner…
••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

On Tuesday night, I witnessed one of the most exciting college basketball games I have ever seen, a triple overtime thriller between Gonzaga and Michigan State in Maui. Every time that one team made a basket, it seemed like the other came back on the other end and tied it up. Both teams boast one of my Thurber Preseason All-American picks:
Marcus Ager (Michigan State) is playing with a huge chip on his shoulder after not even being named to the Preseason All-Big 10 team…He hit big shot after big shot on Tuesday, including a buzzer-beating 3-pointer at the end of regulation to send the game to overtime, and finished with a career-high 36 points.
Adam Morrison (Gonzaga) showed us why he was a Preseason All-American pick Tuesday night, scoring points in a variety of ways, inside and outside. He stepped it up late in the game, finishing in double figures in the OT periods alone. He finished with a career and Maui Invitational high 43 points as his ‘Zags pulled out the win. (He really needs to lose the Guido ‘stache though…)
I can’t give you two of my All-American picks without giving the other three, can I…
Filling out the other three spots I give you…
J.J. Reddick and Sheldon Williams (Duke)
And last but not least,
Rudy Gay (UConn)

Finishing off my college basketball segment, I give you my preseason picks for the Final Four:
Gonzaga- It’s time for the ‘Zags to shed this label of being under-achieving over-achievers; this is the year they break through and make it to the Final Four.
Junior Adam Morrison is probably the most-talented player that they have had during their recent success under Mark Few. He sees the court really well, is a great passer, and can score in a variety of different ways. He’s also a solid rebounder and defender. Complementing him are senior forward J.P. Batista, who is a great low-post scorer (an excellent replacement for Ronny Turiaf) , and point guard Derek Raivio, who is a great ballhandler/playmaker and a marksman from behind the arc.
Michigan State- What separates this year’s team from last year’s Final Four team is they have a clear leader in Marcus Ager who will take and make the big shots at the end of the game. They lost some guys from last year’s team but they are still balanced, with sophomore Drew Neitzel (now with some experience under his belt) providing stability and playmaking ability from the point, and complementary scorers in junior guard Shannon Brown and senior center Paul Davis. As with all of Izzo’s teams, they are great rebounders and play with heart.
Duke- Blue Devil’s star seniors Reddick (the best shooter in the country) and forward Sheldon Williams (a superb low-post scorer who averaged a double-double last year) get a boost from an excellent freshman class led by forward Josh McRoberts and point guard Greg Paulus who will need to contribute to back up my pick here.
UConn- The Huskies boast the best forward tandem in the country in junior Josh Boone (Big East defensive player of the year) and sophomore Rudy Gay (a highly touted low-post scorer with crazy athletic ability). Denham Brown is a solid scorer from the two-guard position and Rashad Anderson is the best 6th man in the country. The only question mark is at the point…Freshman Craig Austrie is the starter with Marcus Williams suspended.

Final Four:
Michigan State over Gonzaga-
The Spartans avenge the Maui loss to the ‘Zags with a game winning shot from Ager seconds after Morrison had tied the game up.
Duke over UConn-
The experience and heart of Williams and Reddick is integral as the Blue Devils pull of the close victory over Rudy Gay and the Huskies.

Championship:
Michigan State over Duke-
Tom Izzo’s teams are traditionally slow-starters and they already look pretty good right now; they are going to be scary in March. Their depth and aggressiveness will prove to be too much for Duke, and they will have no answer for Marcus Ager and the Spartans.
••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Finally, we make a quick turn to the world of baseball, where the GM-less Red Sox have pulled off a huge trade. Well, it’s not so much a great trade as it is being the first to arrive at the Florida Marlins’ fire sale auction (where everybody not named Dontrelle or Miguel is available for a couple prospects). The Marlins have already let go A.J. Burnett to free agency, traded Carlos Delgado to the Mets and are reportedly shopping Juan Pierre, Paul Lo Duca, Luis Castillo and basically anybody on the team with a salary over a million dollars a year…Anyway back to the Red Sox deal. Here are the details if you aren’t familiar with them already:
The Marlins trade third baseman Mike Lowell and SP Josh Beckett to the Red Sox for two average minor league pitching prospects and top shortstop prospect Hanley Ramirez.

Surprisingly, many questions have been raised about this deal from the Red Sox’ standpoint. Mike Lowell, as most baseball enthusiasts know, had a batting average hovering around the Mendoza line for most of the season and has a huge salary. However, he is a huge upgrade at third base defensively over Bill Mueller (he won the NL gold-glove last year) and has proven in past years that he can be a 30 HR, 100 RBI middle-of-the-lineup hitter (his struggles last year can be attributed to various injuries that plagued him for the first half of the season). Josh Beckett is a pitcher with obvious top-of-the-rotation talent but has never made 30 starts in a season or pitched 200 innings. However, a physician who checked out Beckett for the Sox found no lingering problems with Beckett’s shoulder and I think he should have a breakout year this season. Another supposed drawback to this trade was Boston giving up their top shortstop prospect Hanley Ramirez in the trade; however, last season the Sox made it clear with the ridiculously inflated contract that they gave Renteria that he is their shortstop for at least the next 5 years. The Red Sox have to be praised for making a move for Beckett now, rather than trying to out-bid the Blue Jays and Yankees for the services of less-talented and more injury-prone A.J. Burnett. Their rotation next year will be much improved, looking something like this:
A healthy Curt Schilling
Josh Beckett ( proven Yankee killer in the Marlins’ 2003 World Series win)
Jonathan Papelbon
Tim Wakefield (the always steady knuckleballer….well as steady as a knuckleballer can be)
Matt Clement ( still a question mark after the way he pitched in the second half of the season…)

The Sox have started off the off-season committed to improving their team; let’s hope this trend continues. They still need to shore up the bullpen and look for a second baseman, and maybe try to sign another hitter, possibly Paul Konerko?
As for now, I can go and eat my turkey contented, knowing that my Red Sox are working hard to bring home another World Series trophy next year…
••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

Guess who's back...back again...

2005-11-16T22:22:00.000-08:00

Last Week: (As most of you know, although I did not post my picks last week on my blog due to computer difficulties, I did still make them; albeit idiotically)
8-6

CARDINALS (2-7) at RAMS (4-5):
I’ve figured out what’s wrong with Kurt Warner and last week’s game was a prime example. Despite throwing for 359 yards he only threw for one touchdown pass while his Lion counterpart, much-maligned Joey Harrington threw for only 231 yards but 3 touchdown passes. He can drive your team to the 20 or 30 yard line but no further. Expect more of the same this week in St. Loius; he will pick up a ton of passing yards against a suspect Rams secondary but fail to get the ball into the endzone enough times to make up for an absolutely atrocious ‘zona D( and to think that was supposed to be their strength this year). That’s ok…It just means more field goal opportunities for my fantasy team kicker Neil Rackers, who is quietly having the best season by an NFL kicker ever.

My Pick: Rams

LIONS (4-5) at COWBOYS (6-3):
Joey Harrington has taken a lot of flak this year, but I think a lot of his problems stem from the fact that his receivers are never healthy. We saw last week that he still can win with his arm, but that was also against an atrocious Arizona secondary. It’s hard to see him replicating this success against the Cowboy’s D in Dallas.

My Pick: Cowboys

EAGLES (4-5) at GIANTS (6-3):
Both teams lost games last week that they should have won…The Eagles seem to be at a huge disadvantage here as they are on the road and are without the services of Donovan McNabb. But, they need this game much more than the Giants do. They also have a solid backup in Mike McMahon…well, ok the man did complete less than 50% of his passes in 7 games with the Lions but he had nobody to throw the ball to. He rushed for 273 yards on 46 carries in those 7 games…McMahon gives the Eagles a new look with mobility at the quarterback position, something they’ve been lacking as of late with McNabb playing with multiple injuries. He must be pretty impressive in practice for Andy Reid to start him over back-up Koy Detmer (who is healthy and has proven in years past to be a reliable replacement for McNabb when he’s been injured). The Eagles’ backs are against the wall: they need this game or their season is finished…

My Pick: Eagles in a nail-biting upset

RAIDERS (3-6) at REDSKINS (5-4):
This year’s Oakland Raiders team is consistently mediocre, both on offense and defense. The ‘skins consistently are in close games, as evidenced by their single digit point differential on the season. I’m expecting Washington to come out angry after last week’s game that they should have won (replays showed that Mike Alstott was stopped 6 inches short of the goal line on the game-winning 2 point conversion). If they could put up 35 points against the number one ranked pass defense last week, how does the mediocre Oakland D have any chance of containing Santana Moss and co.?

My Pick: Redskins

PANTHERS (7-2) at BEARS (6-3):
The Panthers look like they’re ripe for an upset, but I can’t see it happening this week. The Bears have the defense to shut down Carolina’s high-octane offense, but how are they going to put points on the board against the nearly-as-stingy Panther defense? It’s going to be a frosty day in Northern Illinois, but not cold enough to chill the red-hot Panthers…

My Pick: Panthers

DOLPHINS (3-6) at BROWNS (3-6):
The Dolphins are far better than their record shows, as we saw last week when they nearly came back to beat the Patriots. Their problem is that they suffer from the “Kurt Warner disease” ; that is, they are able to drive within field goal range but then they stall and can’t get the ball in the end-zone. But, against the Browns, this same offensive out-put will easily be enough.

My Pick: Dolphins

BUCCANEERS (6-3) at FALCONS (6-3):
First of all, as stated earlier the Bucs shouldn’t even have won their game last week. I love the gutsy call by Gruden, but don’t think that a victory on a last second-gamble will propel them to a win the next week on the road; it didn’t work out for the Chiefs last week (which I also called) and it won’t work for Tampa this week. The Falcons were upset last week by Green Bay and there is no way that I would ever pick Michael Vick to be upset 2 weeks in a row. Fuck the QB rating, all the man does is win football games…

My Pick: Falcons

SAINTS (2-7) at PATRIOTS (5-4):
Interesting stat: Both teams have allowed more points per game then they’ve scored. However, New Orleans is 2-7 while New England is 5-4. That’s because the Pats have the smartest and most clutch quarterback in the league (Tom Brady) while the Saints have Aaron Brooks. I should also mention that the game is in Foxboro where no one other than Indy two weeks ago has won in recent memory…

My Pick: Patriots

JAGUARS (6-3) at TITANS (2-7):
According to the transitive property, the Titans are the worst team in the NFL.
(The winless Texans knocked off the Browns; the following week the Browns beat the Titans in Tennessee.)

My Pick: Jaguars

STEELERS (7-2) at RAVENS (2-7):
Last time these two teams met, in Pittsburgh, it was a nail-biter (when the Steelers had Rothilesberger in the line-up). This one’s in Baltimore…Did I mention that Tommy Maddox is starting at QB for the Steelers? Enough said…

My Pick: Ravens

SEAHAWKS (7-2) at 49ERS (2-7):
The question here is not who will win the game, but will Shaun Alexander reach 100 yards rushing and 3 TDs before half-time…(The man is fucking carrying my fantasy team on his back)

My Pick: Seahawks in a laugher

COLTS (9-0) at BENGALS (7-2):
There is no doubt in my mind that the undefeated Colts are a superior team to the Bengals, offensively and defensively, but this looks like an intriguing match-up. The game’s in Cincy and the Bengals have had two weeks to prepare for them. The Colts have to lose a game sometime, right? (The way that they’ve played in both games against the Texans this year shows me that they can play badly enough to be beaten).

My Pick: *gasp * Bengals!!!

JETS (2-7) at BRONCOS (7-2):
My how the mighty have fallen…How does Herm Edwards sleep at night? This was supposed to be the year the Jets broke through and made it to the big game. But of course, Pennington again got injured and here they are, essentially eliminated from the playoffs before Week 11. New York (A) I weep for you; I feel your pain…

My Pick: Broncos

BILLS (4-5) at CHARGERS (5-4):
The Bills, fresh off an upset of K.C., arrive in California looking to keep pace with the Patriots. Unfortunately, they find LaDanian Tomlinson there to meet them…Expect a big day from him and another solid passing day from Brees as the Chargers get it done at home.

My Pick: Chargers

CHIEFS (5-4) at TEXANS (1-8):
The Chiefs can’t take Houston too lightly; they did give the Colts a workout for much of the game last week. I think Vermeil will have his troops fired up this week after being embarrassed in Buffalo though and they’ll take care of business in Houston; Trent Green only throws picks when his throwing hand is frostbitten…

My Pick: Chiefs

VIKINGS (4-5) at PACKERS (2-7):
Weird Stat of the day, numero dos:
Points Per Game: MIN 17.1, GNB 22.3
Points Allowed: MIN 25.3, GNB 20.4
The Vikings have allowed a touchdown more per game than their opponents but yet are only a game below .500; meanwhile the Packers have scored 2 more points per game than the opposition. One can read this two ways: either the Vikings have gotten lucky in a couple games (a prime example being their game last week against the Giants where the offense did next to nothing and they feasted upon Eli Manning's mediocrity and a couple “lucky” special teams plays) and the Packers are the better team but have been unlucky, or the Vikings have lost to good teams in blow-outs but understand how to win close games against the average to mediocre teams, while this year’s Packers, although they compete in every game just don’t understand how to win a close game. Assuming last week’s win against the Falcons was an anomaly (because Atlanta didn’t come to play), I’ll take the latter.

My Pick: Vikings as the Packers lose yet another heartbreaker…

A Ridicule Retorted: Alleviation Of Absurdity

2005-11-10T00:43:00.000-08:00

The following is a comment posted by my roommate Lenny in regards to my post "Good Riddance" :

Benji,

While you obviously intended to make me look like a putz, you also failed to make important points, which in turn makes you the putz. You failed to mention that TO was simply concurring with loquacious Michael Irvin's comment that Brett Farve would have done better for the Eagles than McNabb. This is relatively acceptable statment, considering how unhealthy Mcnabb is this season.

Another point to consider is that the 49ers were not simplay getting rid of a "clubhouse menace". TO was a huge contractural obligation that the downsizing 49ers could not afford. So they traded him with the hopes of getting somethign for TO rather than him walking away. That trade was as much business as it was team chemistry.

~Your roommate/sex slave

Lenny,

During our many heated exchanges over this matter you keep going back to the Terrell Owens/Graham Bensinger ESPN interview and citing it as an example of a situation where T.O.'s comments were taken out of context and thus mis-interpreted; so, I thought revisiting the aforementioned comments in their entirety would be a good place to start:

GB: Your friend Michael Irvin recently said that if Brett Favre was the starting quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles, they'd be undefeated right now. What do you think of that comment?

TO: I mean, that's a good assessment, I would agree with that.

GB: How so?

TO: I just feel like just what he brings to the table ... I mean he's the guy. Obviously, a number of commentators will say he's a warrior. He has played with injuries. I just feel like (with) him being knowledgeable about the quarterback position, I just feel like we'd be in a better situation.

Yes, he's being asked a question by Graham Besinger that refers back to comments made by commentator Michael Irvin; however he responds with thoughts that are all his own, apart from anything that Irvin said. He agrees with Irvin that were Favre at the helm of the Eagles offense, they would be undefeated. Fine, I see how that could be viewed as the interviewer trapping Owens into saying something that he didn't mean. But, when looking at an excerpt from earlier in the interview though, his feelings become more apparent:

GB: Donovan has obviously had trouble throwing, especially deep. He didn't complete any of his first 12 passes vs. Denver. How has that affected the team?

TO: Well, obviously I think our wins and losses are really predicated on how he plays...

Here Owens is explicitly indicating that he feels McNabb is responsible for their subpar record. After reading this, now look at what he has to say afterwards when Besinger asks him to elaborate on why he feels they would be in a better situation with Favre. He speaks Favre's praises to the point where it is almost sickening. In doing so, he is clearly taking veiled shots at McNabb indirectly. He calls Favre "the guy," "a warrior," someone who "has played with injuries," clearly implying that his current quarterback, McNabb is not in the same class, and does not know how to play hurt. (For the record, I seem to recall McNabb playing nearly an entire game and pulling out the win with a broken leg, but obviously at the time, Owens was too busy defiling the Cowboys' star to notice.) T.O. caps things off with "I just feel like (with) [Favre] being knowledgeable about the quarterback position, I just feel like we'd be in a better situation," clearly indicating that in comparison, McNabb is not "knowledgeable about the quarterback position." I'm not really sure how you can say that Owens is being taken out of context here; his "concealed" jabs within his comments about Favre seem to be quite apparent. It seems quite obvious that Owens does not respect McNabb and at the same time wants Brett Favre to have his children. (One would think that having played for several successful years with a quarterback (Steve Young) who was at least Favre's equal, Owens would not be so enamored with him.)
Now that I've elucidated Owens' comments for you, let's discuss briefly the comparison between Favre and McNabb since you love to bring the argument up that McNabb is "simply not a winner." Yes, you are correct in pointing out that Favre has the one thing in his possession that McNabb does not: a Super Bowl ring. There is also no disputing that Favre is a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer with a rifle of an arm, balls of steel and more passing records than classes you've slept through this semester. But you need to give McNabb a little more credit. All he's done over the last 4 years in the playoffs is bring the Eagles to the NFC Championship Game 4 consecutive times, a feat that even the great Brett Favre never accomplished. Furthermore, last season he broke through and made it to the Super Bowl, easily dispatching of Favre and the Packers with a 464 passing yard effort and 5 first half touchdowns along the way, all without his best receiver, Terrell Owens. As long as we're on the subject of receivers, let's go back to McNabb versus Favre. Besides the last season and a half with T.O., McNabb has played his entire career with sub-par, un-athletic receivers( James Thrash, Freddie Mitchell and Todd Pinkston are prime examples) and been able to succeed(as previously mentioned) in spite of their shortcomings. Favre, on the other hand has always had talented, athletic receivers at his disposal during his success with the Packers( Antonio Freeman, Javon Walker, Donald Driver were and are far superior to any receiver other than T.O. that the Eagles have thrown out on the field during McNabb's career). Furthermore, Favre has always has a consistent running game(in Dorsey Levens and later Ahman Green) to complement his passing game while the Eagles of the McNabb era have been perennially marred by inconsistency in the running game. I'm not saying that I believe that McNabb is a better quarterback than Favre, but give the man some credit; he has won a lot of games without much to work with(until recently). I don't see how you can say that he's not a "winner." You seem to be blinded by some irrational dislike for the man...

Let's finish things up by switching gears briefly to the other retort made in your response to my post, the way in which things ended for Owens with the 49ers. To do this, I will first contextualize it more lucidly with the assistance of my token 49er fan friend Brian:

Well,
we have to remember that back in the day, TO was actually about to opt out of his contract with the 9ers, but his agent forgot to file the proper paper work. Infact, the 9ers were expecting nothing in return from him because he should have been able to test himself in the open market. Instead, the 9ers traded him to the Ravens, but the NFLPA sued and won, which forced a trade between the 9ers and the eagles. The 9ers got some shmuck who never played well, he was like a DE or something, and the Ravens were given a compensation pick at the end of the first round by the leage (basically it was the first pick in the second round). Anyway, TO can claim that he never got to test the waters because he was suing for his right not to go to the Ravens. Had he been able to test the market, he may have been contented with his contract and could have turned into a model football player. THen again, he's such a douche that that would never happen.
~Brian The Great

I looked it up and the DE that Brian speaks of was named Brian Whiting and the 49ers also got mediocre wide-out James Thrash and a fifth-round draft pick out of the deal. Essentially they got nothing, as the draft pick was of no significance and neither player is still with team or to my knowledge playing in the NFL. You can try to argue that Owens being traded by the 49ers was purely a business decision but I don't buy it. They traded him for next to nothing and were happy to be rid of him. This despite the fact that he had played his ass off and been their best player on the field for several years prior and helped the team win both in the regular season and the playoffs. As you can see from the comments of our friend Brian (a 9er fan) T.O. wore out his welcome in San Fransisco. Obviously the 49ers were getting sick of his off-field antics and realized that the headaches that he brought along with his great play were not worth $8 million a year and it was time to move in a new direction. So, I would agree that the 49ers decided to move on and tore apart what was left of their earlier success, but I believe that Owens' pompous antics (which ended up alienating his coaches, teammates and the organization) were a huge reason why they decided to overhaul the team.

Basically, I think (and evidence shows) that Terrell Owens is a pretentious prick, a talented jackass who has always thought that he can get away with anything because of his amazing athletic abilities. Well, judging from the Eagles' decision to not allow him to play again this season, this haughty, childish mind-set has (thankfully) finally been disproved...

Good Riddance!

2005-11-09T18:08:00.000-08:00

The other night at dinner, my roommate Leonard and I were having a heated debate about the whole T.O. fiasco with the Eagles. Lenny said a couple things that at the time that seemed absurd to me but that I was hard-pressed to disprove (due to a lack of quantitative evidence that would prove him wrong). Here are a couple things that he said that didn't sit real well with me:

"The Eagles are so stupid. They are paying him 8 million dollars a year and now they are just going to throw that all away instead of having the best player in the league on the field winning football games for them."
He went on to say: "By de-activating him they will be throwing away 5 million dollars on nothing; they would be retarded to do this."

Now that I have a good counter-argument compiled with statistics to back it up, let's begin to examine Lenny's comments. First of all, it is a fair assessment for him to say that Terrell is the most talented football player in the NFL; he proved that over the course of his career with the 49ers and in his his first season with the Eagles last year when he had 1,200 receiving yards in only 14 games. He also proved his toughness and commitment by playing in the Super Bowl despite not being medically cleared to play. No one is questioning his ability or physical toughness and willingness to play through injuries; what is being questioned is his ability to co-exist with his teammates and coaches.
He has always had a history of being a locker room headache which is why the 49ers were so willing to deal him in the first place. Following a year in which Jeff Garcia led a sub-par 49ers team to the playoffs and was selected to the Pro Bowl, Owens told an interviewer that Garcia was not a skilled quarterback committed to winning and called him gay despite the fact that he was dating a Playboy playmate at the time. The Eagles saw from Day 1(when he chewed out offensive coordinator Brad Childress) what they were getting, but his performance on the field was enough for them to look the other way. However, the honeymoon didn't last long. A season and a half after he joined Philadelphia and signed a 7 year incentive-laden deal with them(I'll come back to this in a minute) he has likely played his last game with them; in that time period he has insulted and alienated everyone in the organization from offensive coordinator Brad Childress(whom he called out again during spring training) to Andy Reid( who he also confronted during spring training, which resulted in a week suspension) to of course, his Pro-Bowl quarterback Donovan McNabb(who he called out in the off-season for not playing well in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl because he was sick, and of course more recently put down again by suggesting that the Eagles would be better off with ancient Brett Favre at the helm, contradicting himself by ignoring the fact that his QB has played hurt all season without complaining, going out on the field so his team has a chance to win). Do I even need to mention him calling out the entire organization, calling them "classless" and getting into a physical fight with team advisor and former Eagle Hugh Douglas?
The Eagles were willing to let T.O. be T.O. and occasionally look the other way when he acted out but he took it way too far and it's about time they cut ties with him. But is this a stupid, expensive move for them to make?
When Lenny suggested that T.O. is making $"8" million a year, he was in the same ballpark of what Owens' contract appears to be as quoted by Sports Illustrated and ESPN and everyone else when he signed: a 7 year deal worth 48.9 million dollars which looks as though it boils down to $7 million a year. However after researching things further, it seems as though it is full of incentives and the money is not spread out evenly from year to year; in other words the Eagles were intelligently giving themselves an out when they drew up the contract. Owens is only making $3.25 million a year this season; during the 4 games where he will be suspended from the team without pay he will be losing about $200,000 per game; during the final five games after the Eagles de-activate him, they will have to pay him, but this will only amount to about a million dollars of wasted money, which seems like a lot of money to destitute college students such as ourselves but is pocket change to a thriving professional football organization. In short, the Eagles knew they were gambling but were smart enough to leave themselves an out; it is integral to team chemistry and the stability of the organization that they get rid of T.O. as soon as possible, and there's no way in hell that he will still be on their roster by next spring when he is slated to receive a $5 million incentive bonus if he is still on the team. They knew it was risky, it didn't work out, and it's time for the Eagles to move on. Good Riddance!
Perhaps they should go back to winning with the T.O.-less formula that brought them to 4 straight NFC Championship games and won them the NFC bid to the Super Bowl last year: Donovan McNabb carrying the team to victory despite meagerly-talented no-name receivers and an inconsistent running game.
Wait, what am I saying? Obviously McNabb sucks and is just the media's aggrandized attempt to elevate a black quarterback to stardom...

Let's Give It Another Go...

2005-11-04T00:13:00.000-08:00

Last Week: 7-7

Ok, so my picks didn’t go so well last week, but cut me a little slack. Who could have seen Dante Culpepper going down for the season on the first series of the Vikings’ game against the Panthers? Or Philly’s D go from giving up only 7 yards rushing to the best running back in the league(Ladanian Tomlinson) to allowing two 100 yard rushers and 48 points to a Broncos team that lost to a Giants team that I misjudged and thought was mediocre? I keenly observed that the Giants’ pass defense was ranked next to last in the league but failed to take into account that the Redskins really aren’t that good, all of their wins have been close, and they have been blown out in all of their losses. Thus, the 36-0 devastation that ensued in Giant Stadium should have not have come as such a surprise to me. But could I have for-seen the Rams beating the Jaguars without their coach, starting quarterback or their two Pro Bowl wide receivers? Or the 49ers beating Tampa Bay in a match-up of the team with the worst pass defense in the AFC against the best defense of the NFC, using a fourth-string quarterback who was forced because of lack of players to play both special teams and offense? I am feeling a bit demoralized, especially since I am sitting in second to last place in my picking pool, behind only my semi-retarded little brother, but I am going to give it another go...

Tennessee (2-6, 1-3 away) at Cleveland (2-5, 1-2 home):
Both of these teams lost close games last week that they could have won. The difference is Cleveland lost to a Texans team that had been previously winless, while the Titans lost to an Oakland team that isn’t that bad. Still, I’m taking the Browns here because they are playing for respect after being embarrassed last Sunday, and they are at home.

My Pick: Browns in a close match-up of teams playing only for respect

Atlanta (5-2, 2-1 away) at Miami (3-4, 2-1 home):
Miami feasted on Aaron Brooks’ stupidity last week, but Michael Vick has just as good an arm as Brooks, is more mobile and actually has an IQ over 50, so one would think that he will pose a bit more of a threat. However, it’s a well-kept secret that Vick has struggled this year thus far(QB rating of 63) and I am apparently alone in thinking this, but I think it will be more of the same for him against a stingy Miami defense. The Dolphins counter with the “intimidating” signal-caller and Lions cast-off Gus Ferotte who actually has a slightly higher QB rating than Vick(66.5). The key to this game though is the running game: The Falcons have struggled so far against the run, and now that Ricky Williams is getting back in shape, the Miami RB combination of Ricky and Ronnie Brown will be pretty tough to stop. T.J. Duckett, the Falcons’ starting RB is banged up and is questionable for the game. Plus, the Falcons haven’t been tested in awhile and the game is in Miami. I think the Dolphins will catch Atlanta off-guard…

My Pick: Dolphins in an upset that no-one(except me) predicts

San Diego (4-4, 2-2 away) at New York Jets (2-5, 2-1 home):
The Jets are 2-1 at home, but they’re playing one of the better teams in the AFC. Dpn’t let their ugly 4-4 record deceive you; the Chargers could easily be 6-2 or 7-1 right now. Brees and Antonio Gates are proving to be an unstoppable combination for opposing defenses, and I expect more of the same against a weakened Jet secondary. If they cheat and stick an extra guy back there to cover Gates, Tomlinson will make them pay, despite his mediocre showings the last two weeks on the ground. Plus, NY’s QB, Vinny Testaverde is like 50 years old.

My Pick: Chargers

Houston (1-6, 0-3 away) at Jacksonville (4-3, 2-1 home):
Well, the Texans won one game…maybe they can win another? Not against a perturbed Jaguar team that is pissed off after their embarrassing loss to the Dolphins last week.

My Pick: Jaguars in a lopsided one

Oakland (3-4, 1-2 away) at Kansas City (4-3, 2-1 home)…
Oakland has won two in a row, but look at who they were playing. The Chiefs are most certainly not the Titans(who the Raiders barely beat last week); they nearly beat a very good Chargers team last week. Expect both teams to put up a lot of points as neither squad plays any defense, but Trent Green, Priest Holmes and co. should have no problem taking care of business at home in this one.

My Pick: Chiefs

Detroit (3-4, 1-2 away) at Minnesota (2-5, 2-1 home):
When Culpepper went down last week, so did the Vikings’ chances of accomplishing anything this season, right? Hmmm...this is the NFC North we're talking about here...I’ve always been a Jeff Garcia fan but he looked pretty shaky last week. He is itching to get back on the field and redeem himself after losing the game and division lead in OT last week to the Bears, but I’m not so sure he will...I don't think he's fully recovered from his broken leg. They may have to hand the reins back to Joey Harrington. Brad Johnson (a traditional drop-back passer with a strong arm) at the helm will give the Viking offense a new look, and with a healthy receiving corps I think they will catch the Lions secondary off-guard.

My Pick: Vikings

Carolina (5-2, 2-1 away) at Tampa Bay (5-2, 3-0 home):
Tampa Bay showed me what they’re really made of last week; they failed to shut down the 49ers’ 4th string quarterback and lost. Carolina, meanwhile, beat up on a demoralized Vikings team that lost their best player for the season two minutes into the game. Its tempting to pick the Bucs here and assume that they are motivated to play well after being embarrassed last week, but the Panthers’ passing attack(Delhomme to Smith) is likely more than they can handle. If only the Panthers had a running game, SI’s preseason prediction might come true…

My Pick: Panthers

Cincinnati (6-2, 3-1 away) at Baltimore (2-5, 2-1 home):
Brian Billick’s days are numbered…This Ravens team has underachieved beyond belief. Of course, he couldn’t have forseen Jamal Lewis’ rapid deterioration, and injuries to Ray Lewis and Kyle Boller. Still, they did only lose to the Steelers by a point. But the Bengals are a better offensive team than Pittsburgh and have a more potent passing game; they are the class of the division.

My Pick: Bengals

Chicago (4-3, 1-2 away) at New Orleans (2-6, 1-3 home):
The Bears gritted out an overtime win in Detroit and showed that they can win purely on defense. This won’t get it done against the elite teams in the league, but against New Orleans, it could be enough...However, I don't see Chicago winning 2 games on the road in a row, especially not with Joe Horn, who was personally affected by Hurricane Katrina, motivated to give the home crowd something to cheer about in his second game back from injury(he had 99 yards receiving last week in his first game back).

My Pick: Saints

Seattle (5-2, 1-2 away) at Arizona (2-5, 2-2 home):
On the surface, this looks like an easy pick; Seattle in a blowout, but lets delve a bit deeper and look at some stats…Seattle is only 1-2 on the road this year, has lost 3 of their last 4 games in Arizona and lost their last 6 games coming off of a bye week. Furthermore, every week thus far in the NFL season, more home teams have won than road teams.

My Pick: Cardinals

New York Giants (5-2, 1-2 away) at San Francisco (2-5, 2-2 home):
Can the 49ers win two weeks in a row with the worst pass defense in the league and a 4th string quarterback? I think not. Especially not against a team as hot as the Giants. Look for Eli to actually complete 50% of his passes this week and for another 100 yard day out of Tiki Barber, who is one of the most underrated backs in the league.

My Pick: Giants

Pittsburgh (5-2, 3-0 away) at Green Bay (1-6, 1-2 home) :
Big Ben is out, after having arthroscopic surgery on his knee(he will likely miss next week’s game as well). The Steelers still have a chance to win as Tommy Maddox has fallen to third on their depth chart and won’t be losing the game by himself on Sunday as he did earlier in the year against Jacksonville when Rothlisberger was out(4 turnovers including a game-ending interception). However, I’ll take Brett Favre, even without a running game and his top receiver, over former Lions-castoff Charlie Batch who hasn’t started a game since I was like 16.

My Pick: Packers

Philadelphia (4-3, 1-3 away) at Washington (4-3, 3-0 home):
Both teams were beaten emphatically last week; the Eagles by the Broncos, and the Redskins by the Giants. In what looks to be an even match-up of struggling middle of the road teams, I’ll go with the statistics: The Eagles are 1-3 on the road and the ‘Skins are 3-0 at home…so I should go with the 'Skins? McNabb is pretty banged up and his "favorite" target, Terrell Owens, is out, suspended indefinitely for disparaging comments he made about the team, the organization and specifically his quarterback. But, Donovan will be extremely motivated to win this week and despite the fact that he is banged up and playing on the road, I am willing to bet that he will pull it out without T.O., in spite of T.O. and to prove T.O. wrong. Over the course of his career, he has always responded well to adversity and I don't expect any less than his best from him on Sunday night...

My Pick: Eagles

Indianapolis (7-0, 4-0 away) at New England (4-3, 2-1 home):
Yes, I know. The Colts are incapable of beating my Patriots, right? Um, not this year. The Pats could barely beat a mediocre Bills team last week at home, when they had two weeks to prepare for them. Even if Peyton chokes again, who in the Patriots’ secondary is capable of capitalizing?? And if they do stack the secondary, Edgerrin James(who is leading the league in rushing yards) will eat their front line alive, just like McGahee did last week…

My Pick: Colts